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Source: Worthwhile Canadian Initiative Blog

Correlation does not mean causation. That has been sufficiently pounded in my head over the past decade. I have to say, though, this graph above from Worthwhile Canadian Initiative Blog looks mighty tasty in explaining the connection between Alberta Premieres leaving office with declines in natural resource revenue.

To be sure, Alison Redford's resignation last week was due to a number of factors from leadership questions to allegations over profligate spending. The decline in natural resource revenue certainly did not help. This all does seem like a page out of Mr. Obvious' Almanac but I was still intrigued.

From the blog post (unknown author):

  • I would venture that one key mark of success for an Alberta premier is to have their term coincide with high natural resource revenue shares that allow for Albertans to have public spending in a manner they have grown accustomed to.  A weakening of natural resource revenues leads to difficulties and a tinderbox of dissatisfaction looking for a match.  Premier Redford’s travel expenses were that match and the knives came out.

Hey, what's $45,000 between taxpayers friends?