Given a 50% drop in crude oil prices during the last 6 months you might expect a significant washout in net speculative length (# of long contracts minus number of short contracts of both large & small speculators) in crude oil futures. You would be wrong...

WTI_Crude_Spec_Positioning

The shocking fact is that not only has net speculative length failed to make new lows since the initial summer decline (which saw price fall from above $105/barrel to near $85/barrel), but speculators have actually increased bullish bets in recent weeks even as price made new lows. This is generally not a bullish phenomenon.

We see the same trend in RBOB Gasoline Futures; specs have drastically reduced short positions and begun increasing long positions as price has continued to crater:

RBOB

While bearish sentiment on oil appears to be quite extreme (with articles calling for $20 oil garnering lots of attention), the increase in net speculative length in recent weeks does not inspire confidence that the ultimate bottom is in place yet for this decline in the crude oil price.