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@Alan Interview with $FNV ceo David Harquail on #gold and #oil and #gas royalties https://youtu.be/j5u6HO1nJY4+
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@Alan Nasty correction going on in the gold stocks. Seeing some big bargains.....finally!!
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@Alan Some good comments on here regarding positioning. One thing I have learnt is that regardless of how cheap things can get, they can always get cheaper. So don't blow your load too soon. I discipline myself to keep at least 10% of cash held back regardless of what happens. Never be fully invested. Opportunities will always crop if you are looking. There's always value to be found somewhere. If there's a bull market in one place, there's likely to be a bear somewhere else. Find the best of the best in that bear and partner up.
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@MiningBookGuy btw, thanks for GREAT #positioning chat this morning in #mbgtrends! i'll try to catch up on it soon and add some of my own comments. great stuff from @chatyak @Jayfire @Vaughan @0Kib @Stealinator @Alan (and anyone i might have missed)
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@Alan @goldfinger - interesting article that you posted from Cullen Roscoe. I read that and another one he wrote on economics and I read this,'All government spending isn’t necessarily bad just like all private sector spending isn’t necessarily good'. He fails to realise that ALL government spending is bad as it is money taken by force, in the form of taxes. On the same note ALL private spending is good as it is voluntary.
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@Goldenboy @alan no problem with defending yourself. I think you would get more respect from the community for doing one solid rebuttal and then just not engaging. Might find it more effective. Also gives you more time to focus on your CEO role. Cheers
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@Alan @jayfire- I'm also looking at $FVI at the min. Nevsun is looking cheap and I'm considering some First majestic at these levels. Weird day. #bitcoin is flying again and its pretty much the same price as gold. Considering selling my last bit. Gold in GBP is also doing really well. Considering selling some physical metal to buy the shares. Great posts earlier btw @jayfire. I always read your blog posts on Facebook. Love your writing style.
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@Jayfire @Alan Yup, same here I've been eyeing $FVI and Alexco in particular and decided to add some more Alexco on the dip. First Majestic is another good silver name too and I bought some shares a few weeks ago. Crazy how Bitcoin is almost on parity to gold now! Well, if the deals keep coming I guess we just keep on buying then. Happy hunting! And Thanks for the kind words! Cheers!
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@Alan Does anyone on here know if you are an accredited investor in the UK whether it means you can invest in private placements in Canada? If so, found a way to do it for the UK residents.
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@Alan How is everyone holding out with this correction? Keep your nerve. If you believe in the company and management and nothing has changed, or it may even have got better, consider this like an all you can eat buffett. Don't get too full and choose the best dishes.Corrections like this are normal in this market. My main mistake was not selling at the end of Feb (my original plan). I procrasinated.
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@Jayfire @Alan Great comment! Yeah, it's always easy to second guess with the benefit of hindsight. I wouldn't worry too much about it, but just a good reminder why it's so important for us to have internal alarms telling us to trim some stock when we are in good profits. These spikes are normal and frequent... load up on the big dips and sell some on the rips
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@MiningBookGuy @Alan RE: https://ceo.ca/mbgtrends?c9ddf0b5e8fd - the video @TheNextBigRush just published (and I posted) is PERFECT for the thoughts you're sharing! :)
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@Alan @miningbookguy @jayfire @thenextbigrush - great video guys. I have done the same strategy of 'catching falling knives' for the last 5 years. However, in hindsight maybe Steve sjuggeruds idea of looking for cheap, hated but in an uptrend investments would have faired better. A good method would be to look for downturns within a clear uptrend (like most commodities now).
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@Jayfire @Alan good point, not all downtrends created equally... for example, if the Dow jones were to fall 12 consecutive trading sessions (hah fat chance of that happening) I probably still wouldn't be tempted to jump in... where you fall from matters, so coming off of record highs, it could be a long ways down... mining stocks, otoh were mired in a perpetual negative decline where if the commodities like gold an silver fell any further from their bottoms we would have had a lot of mine closures and companies going under. Uranium being another example where by the end of 2016 it was blindingly obvious that the sector was operating at the depths of despair, or not very far away from it. The exact turn date is anyone's guess, but those are the absolute best times to strike where fortunes are made... because when the sector finally turns around the stocks will double and then double again and still have a lot of ground to make up to even get back to historical levels/valuations. Many of these silver stocks were up 400-800% or more last year and silver never even came close to $25 (now imagine if it did get there, where would the stocks like First Majestic, Bear Creek, Mag Silver, etc. be trading at?) Yes, I still believe gold and silver still have a long bull market in front of them... patience is the hard part!
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@MiningBookGuy @Alan RE: https://ceo.ca/mbgtrends?644374f362cc - thanks! Interesting you bring up Steve Sjuggerud. I'm on his free #DailyWealth email list. He does have a great track record, even with the free tidbits he provides. Here's a good article I found in my inbox today: Why Gold Stocks Are Underperforming Gold http://www.dailywealth.com/3482/why-gold-stocks-are-underperforming-gold #gold #goldstocks #GDXJ #mbgtrends
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@Alan @hunter - Yeah great summary. Steve has done well on his calls the last year. Although, I read his news letter 'true wealth' every month and sometimes those up trends are not true and can reverse (to which he gets stopped out). Again it's a case of what you call an uptrend I may call a relief rally! I say just seek what 'you' believe to be value and learn along the way. Thanks for sharing @miningbookguy. I'm also on his list and read it this morning. Steve is well respected in the industry.
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@Alan Interesting conversation you are all having on here. I much prefer the optionality plays as they are not actually selling the very thing I find valuable. As #dougCasey has spoken about many times, mining is a crappy business. They are not investments but speculations. I will look at any of these, producers, explorer's, whatever. But to make me part with my cash it must be very cheap. Or what I subjectivity consider as cheap. It all comes down to the price paid for me. Tag on quality people.
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@Excelsior @Alan - I agree that #Optionality plays are a good place to stash some cash, but this term "Optionality" is being tossed around quite a bit right now, and most think it is some kind of category of miner.... and it isn't. Really all #Optionality means is "Not Economic at current prices". :-) *--> So "optionality" stocks are just stocks that are presently stalled or undervalued (at whatever stage they are in) because they need higher metals prices to move forward. So there could be optionality value / perception in underwater #producers, optionality in #developers with advanced stage defined projects that need higher metals prices to move them forward, or #exploration projects with grade/infrastructure/metallurgy that requires higher prices to be economic and generate any interest to be able to raise more money to continue drilling. The way Rick Rule refers to them in interviews they are mostly stalled #Developers with their exploration done and they are just floating and waiting for higher metals prices before any other companies want to partner with them or acquire them - [companies like Exeter or International Tower Hill Mines that are Advanced deposits whose next step is Development, but they need a huge capital raise or a JV Partner to move those forward]. Rick Rule was also just heavily invested in Northern Dynasty (until recently selling it) because it was Permit Optionality (like Sabina). Those are still development stage companies.....just right now they can't develop it so they become "Optionality" stories. In the case of most of these stalled development stories though, they are just businesses that need better margins for their product to be distributed. One of the reason I like the "Optionality" plays, is that a slightly underwater producer will have margins that increase substantially [on a percentage basis] for slight increases to the metals prices. Developers that are on the cusp of having an economic project with a slight increase in metals prices (like Alexco or Aurcana) can really take off in a big way, if the metals markets only move in a small way. The markets are generally forward-looking, but many are looking forward at only today's prices or have pricing models that are flat for years. That isn't how the commodities generally move, so the questions should be more focused around "Is this optionality to move forward at $1300 Gold and $20 Silver or does it need $1500-$1600 Gold and $30 Silver? #mbgtrends
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@MiningBookGuy @Excelsior RE: https://ceo.ca/mbgtrends?8722b94fecb5 - excellent answer to @Alan's post, continuing the discussion from earlier in #mbgtrends! I don't disagree with @Alan about his thoughts on betting on #optionality. However, I am much more in-line with @Excelsior's approach. And take it even further in the sense that I'm REALLY looking for anything that's 'economic' at today's prices. This is most in-line with what you hear from Brent/Joe with #explorationinsights newsletter. While #DougCasey has made a ton of money in this industry, his public discussions on juniors are too cynical for my taste. there IS quality out there, and occasionally we can buy 'quality ounces in the ground' for cheap. I will ALWAYS want these over the 'extreme-optionality' plays. And I am happy to accept 'semi-optionality' plays (as better described by @excelsior). But as a final point on this for now: I am very very open to #exploration plays where there's nothing yet in the ground, but we know it's very prospective, either based on what I can gather from various 'pre-drilling' analysis (soil sampling, geophysical data, etc ...stuff where i need advice from experts), or simply from a 'big-time' JV partner that is only there because they're looking for the big score. Anyway, it's a good discussion to continue, and appreciate both @Alan & @Excelsior commenting on this! #mbgtrends
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@bullmarketmove hi everyone, just to let you know i have another interview with Justin from nextbigtrade.com. We talked about #uranium #investing #books and a couple of other things, https://ceo.ca/@bullmarketmove/the-next-bull-market-move-interview-justin-at-the-nextbigtradecom @Alan @MiningBookGuy @Excelsior @Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis #RickRule #nextbigtrade @Tommy #articles many thanks for everyones support #TheNextBullMarketMove
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@Excelsior @MiningBookGuy @Alan @Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis @0Kib and anybody else following the discussion above about the benefits and risks of #Explorers vs #Developers and the expertise of management teams..... I was revisiting some audio interviews over the weekend and when I went through this one with Matt Geiger that was on #PalisadeRadio last week, it was much more interesting this time around. He spent the middle section on #Exploration plays, #ProspectGenerators, #Development stage companies and the metrics he looks at. @MiningBookGuy - I just realized you already reviewed this up above as well. Nice work! ** this part of interview starts at the 7 min and 20 sec mark ** He touched on the importance of management expertise for any mining company (particularly with Exploration companies due to the high risk nature of finding an economic depost), but then he really covered some interesting points to consider in how he values miners. For example Matt discusses how much #Runway the explorer has (working capital divided by their monthly burn rate), and he looks at the ratio of Working Capital vs Enterprise Value [and how some companies present unique value and trade near their working capital offering little to no valuation of their actual mining assets]. When looking at #Development companies he looks at Net Present Value versus the Capex required to build out and start mining [and points out the some have capital requirements so massive that they make no sense to move that project forward]. Next he looks at the IRR and has a target of 25% and a Payback of 3 yrs as a benchmark. Matt goes on to discuss #Developers that are {you guessed it} #Optionality plays, and he considers them some of the riskiest, because the thesis can be wrong for a long time and depends on what prices they need to move their project forward. He goes on to mention that #Optionality plays in #Developers along with the optionality of higher cost #Producers can provide the most leverage in a rising metals price environment. Really good stuff and it fits right in with our discussions here the last few days on #mbgtrends _______________________________________________________ Matt Geiger: Opportunities Abound, How To Find Them? Gold, Uranium, and Phosphates BY COLLIN KETTELL ON FEBRUARY 27, 2017 http://palisaderadio.com/matt-geiger-opportunities-abound-how-to-find-them-gold-uranium-and-phosphates/
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@Alan @newton @john_hornby - good to hear from other shareholders. Been with this company over a year after hearing about it from #chrismayer. I still like the business model and the people involved seemed genuine. I got in near the bottom and took some profits over $2. I think they will eventually reclaim the lost amount, but either way they keep the land. They are also paying the dividend which is nice. The underlying company is doing very well even if the stock price isn't. It could do with some decent marketing I think. Maybe #futuremoneytrends!
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@Alan @miningbookguy @bullmarketmove- I just had a read. Thanks. It was interesting but as Nick says, trading isn't really my thing, however, always good to hear other perspectives. Read a few of the books he recommended but been a while. We are so lucky with technology we have being able to access each other and information about companies vs people like #Nicolasdarvas back in his day!
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@Alan Crazy few days. Quite a lot of bargains today. Finally got filled on $NDM. Portfolio is getting nailed though. It shows how important having cash is at this time. It gives you the option to buy at depressed prices. However, if a major stock crash materialises, I have readied myself for the potential of my speculative portfolio to potentially half in value. It's always important to consider your downside before the upside.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Alan Yeh been good, I'm not to fussed with high quality names I already own going down, its gives me a chance to load up. $SSL is one, I always hope for it to get smashed to 4CAD, but still hasn't happened since early last year and may never happen. I didn't fill properly in December, so slowly beginning to fill some in now, I bought a small position in $BSX, has 80m cash or so, plus fully permitted project 7moz including a new 500k target with further upside. 4moz or so in reserves, Very High NPV at todays prices reasonably low Capex.......hoping it goes lower actually, less torque then some other names but good safer upside without excessive risk. Approved by Brent cook and @otto....... and institutions including agnico so should be ok.
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@Alan @FundamentalAnalysis- Yeah, my investment portfolio with names like $SII and $SSL are the best when they drop. I get the income from the dividends and are much less risky than the speculative names like $NDM. But I love the cyclical and volatile nature of the junior mining and uranium stocks.
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@Alan This article is well worth a read to understand the importance of #speculation #mises https://mises.org/blog/dwight-schrute-shows-us-why-speculators-are-so-important
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@Alan Great conversation between @leni and #dougcasey. This quote stood out for me: ' ld you say that you have successfully removed emotion from your speculations and investments, over the course of your speculating career? Why or Why not? Doug: I try to, but it’s very hard to separate your rational mind from your emotions. In fact, when I feel like buying something or selling something, I say, “wait a minute, maybe I should do exactly the opposite of what I feel.” So, it’s very hard, but it’s important. If you start thinking that way, acting against your own emotions, it does improve your results because, as a general rule, you don’t want to be in what they call a ‘crowded trade,’ where everyone thinks, “yeah, this is going to happen”. Maybe there are actually good reasons why something should happen, and maybe it will happen. But, if everybody already believes that and is already long or short, there’s no profit in it, the profit is already gone. #speculator #http://www.juniorstockreview.com/2017/03/03/a-conversation-with-doug-casey-life-freedom-and-speculation/
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@MiningBookGuy cool @Goldfinger! @TheNextBullMarketMove and @Alan (different 'Alan' who hangs out in #mbgtrends) are the only 2 people who got back to me, and I believe are reading it now or very soon. It was a best-seller in the late 60s, incredibly it's mostly forgotten today (which makes it more valuable to me). #TheMoneyGame
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@bullmarketmove thanks @Alan and i agree, its only because of technology that everyone can learn more about investing. Imagine being back in the 70's with no internet and you wanted to learn more about the bull market in gold and silver. Access to info is king :) especially with great videos and info from @MiningBookGuy
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@Alan Great quote from Charlie Munger here - "Investing is not supposed to be easy, and anybody who finds it easy is stupid.” If you are someone that thinks speculating and investing is going to be easy, think again. If you do think it is easy, you are at a disadvantage to the true investor that is always understanding that the more you know, the more you realise how little you actually know. It humbles you.
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@bullmarketmove @Alan you speak the truth :) there is always more to learn.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @bullmarketmove @Alan - Agree re: difficulty, especially in this low growth rate environment. The world population has increased rapidly in % terms over the last 75years. The next 75years will see in % terms a lot less growth, because population growth rates are slowing down and we are starting from a larger base. By default the growth rates have to be less..... then we have debt issues, demographic issues, retirees etc which the previous generation didn't face to such a degree all this means if there is another warren buffett (barring any serious inflation).....it's unlikely they would exist having invested in the traditional developed western economies, it will be via investing in riskier jurisdictions. #newbies
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@Alan Good interview with #jimrogers for #sprott. He talks about #gold #silver and believes they will go lower still. Remember no one can predict where the price will go. Personally at the minute I think having a good amount of physical gold, silver and cash is wise. It will be useful for when a recession occurs to snap up some bargains. Consider some high quality investments to generate some cash-flow and some strategic speculations when bargain opportunities arise. https://youtu.be/3TNmEY8mfJM+
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@bullmarketmove thanks for sharing that @Alan #jimrogers is a legend and his books are very good as well.
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@bullmarketmove Just to let everyone know, i've just published another interview, this time it's with the Amanada Van Dyke from Peterhouse Asset Management, We talked about the #Uranium market, what it takes to become a successful investor, and what to look for in a resource company. Enjoy! @bullmarketmove/the-next-bull-market-move-interview-amanda-van-dyke-at-peterhouse-asset-management #articles @Alan @MiningBookGuy @Jayfire @fundamentalAnalysis #TheNextBullMarketMove
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@MiningBookGuy @Alan RE: https://ceo.ca/mbgtrends?fca87b794f96 - thanks for sharing this #jimrogers interview. I'm a bit surprised he's so stubborn with his 'gold below $1000' prediction. i thought he might 'adjust' to saying it would go lower, but maybe just to $1100-1200 as a final bottom (but that's closer to what i think...and i give it far less than a 50% chance at this point). but i still like the way he describes everything, basically telling people NOT to listen to him and do their own research, but giving his opinions anyway. #mbgtrends
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@Alan @bullmarketmove- another good one mate. Never heard of Amanda before. @miningbookguy- who knows, maybe #gold will drop that low. Even if it did, #jimrogers would be fine I'm sure :) if it did drop that low, it would certainly test people's staying power. Yeah I agree, price predictions are just that...opinions.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Alan The case for physical gold in $ terms being Neutral (range bound) in my opinion is very very strong. The case for being bullish is fairly strong but not as strong as the majority in my opinion think. The case for being bearish as in Sub $1000 is weak....quite honestly I just cannot see it happening unless govt made holding gold by private individuals illegal, introducing special gold taxes, changing the margins required for gold trading, or allowing interest rates to get ahead of inflation to oust trump or maybe another liquidity crisis. I've tried to make a bear case for gold and I just cannot present a case....always open to opinions...... In normal trading the only way it could happen is just usual volatility, prices swinging both ways including down....but gold crashing into another long bear market...900s 800s 700s just cannot see it.
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@Alan @FundamentalAnalysis- I completely agree with you. I believe gold will go up over time. But I also realise what I believe may not occur and its good to mentally prepare yourself for the potential downside. If we have a recession #gold probably will decline in price, or said another way, cash will increase in value. The problem is people still think government will solve all their problems and until that changes gold may lag a little. But on the other note, it may not.
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@bullmarketmove many thanks @MiningBookGuy and @Alan, i've also seen that Justin Smyth from #nextbigtrade.com has been interviewed by #PalisadeGlobal #CollinKettell and he talked about #Uranium, well worth checking out http://palisaderadio.com/justin-smyth-lessons-learned-from-the-last-major-uranium-bull-market/
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@Alan This is such a brilliant 3 minutes https://youtu.be/pX52nQYDwf0+ from #rickrule.
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@Alan Great general overview video of $OR business model https://youtu.be/j5VkiXJDoZc+
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@Alan #rickrule discusses market timing in his monthly update with #collinkettell. Good section on his new venture in $SRHI https://youtu.be/e6tzvSHh8Io+
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@bullmarketmove Just to let everyone know, i've just published a new interview with Collin Kettell from Palisade Global.We talked about the bull market in #Uranium, PDAC 2017, and who he listens to as an investor. Enjoy! @bullmarketmove/the-next-bull-market-move-interview-collin-kettell-ceo-partner-palisade-global-investments-ltd @Excelsior @MiningBookGuy thank you for the nice words about my blog the other day. @jayfire @Alan @FundamentalAnalysis @tommy #NextBigTrade #TheNextBullMarketMove #RickRule #JustinSmyth
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@Alan Another #rickrule interview. He talks about many topics including #lithium and #cobalt to which I agree. https://youtu.be/dlUfA_VNQrg+
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@Alan @bullmarketmove- great interview. Collin is someone I keep my eye on closely and is an experienced while being young #speculator. The best combination in my opinion.
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@backstroke_ @Alan yeah Ricky says invest in DRC, sell your home and put it all on #cobalt here property prices are real cheap in Kolwezi if things go awry and you need a new crib. #EarlySaturdayMessage
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@bullmarketmove Thanks @MiningBookGuy and @Alan I think #CollinKettell and a few other guys I try and follow will be the Rick Rule's of the future.
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