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@MiningBookGuy @Excelsior RE: https://ceo.ca/mbgtrends?8722b94fecb5 - excellent answer to @Alan's post, continuing the discussion from earlier in #mbgtrends! I don't disagree with @Alan about his thoughts on betting on #optionality. However, I am much more in-line with @Excelsior's approach. And take it even further in the sense that I'm REALLY looking for anything that's 'economic' at today's prices. This is most in-line with what you hear from Brent/Joe with #explorationinsights newsletter. While #DougCasey has made a ton of money in this industry, his public discussions on juniors are too cynical for my taste. there IS quality out there, and occasionally we can buy 'quality ounces in the ground' for cheap. I will ALWAYS want these over the 'extreme-optionality' plays. And I am happy to accept 'semi-optionality' plays (as better described by @excelsior). But as a final point on this for now: I am very very open to #exploration plays where there's nothing yet in the ground, but we know it's very prospective, either based on what I can gather from various 'pre-drilling' analysis (soil sampling, geophysical data, etc ...stuff where i need advice from experts), or simply from a 'big-time' JV partner that is only there because they're looking for the big score. Anyway, it's a good discussion to continue, and appreciate both @Alan & @Excelsior commenting on this! #mbgtrends
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@bullmarketmove hi everyone, just to let you know i have another interview with Justin from nextbigtrade.com. We talked about #uranium #investing #books and a couple of other things, https://ceo.ca/@bullmarketmove/the-next-bull-market-move-interview-justin-at-the-nextbigtradecom @Alan @MiningBookGuy @Excelsior @Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis #RickRule #nextbigtrade @Tommy #articles many thanks for everyones support #TheNextBullMarketMove
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@Excelsior @MiningBookGuy @Alan @Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis @0Kib and anybody else following the discussion above about the benefits and risks of #Explorers vs #Developers and the expertise of management teams..... I was revisiting some audio interviews over the weekend and when I went through this one with Matt Geiger that was on #PalisadeRadio last week, it was much more interesting this time around. He spent the middle section on #Exploration plays, #ProspectGenerators, #Development stage companies and the metrics he looks at. @MiningBookGuy - I just realized you already reviewed this up above as well. Nice work! ** this part of interview starts at the 7 min and 20 sec mark ** He touched on the importance of management expertise for any mining company (particularly with Exploration companies due to the high risk nature of finding an economic depost), but then he really covered some interesting points to consider in how he values miners. For example Matt discusses how much #Runway the explorer has (working capital divided by their monthly burn rate), and he looks at the ratio of Working Capital vs Enterprise Value [and how some companies present unique value and trade near their working capital offering little to no valuation of their actual mining assets]. When looking at #Development companies he looks at Net Present Value versus the Capex required to build out and start mining [and points out the some have capital requirements so massive that they make no sense to move that project forward]. Next he looks at the IRR and has a target of 25% and a Payback of 3 yrs as a benchmark. Matt goes on to discuss #Developers that are {you guessed it} #Optionality plays, and he considers them some of the riskiest, because the thesis can be wrong for a long time and depends on what prices they need to move their project forward. He goes on to mention that #Optionality plays in #Developers along with the optionality of higher cost #Producers can provide the most leverage in a rising metals price environment. Really good stuff and it fits right in with our discussions here the last few days on #mbgtrends _______________________________________________________ Matt Geiger: Opportunities Abound, How To Find Them? Gold, Uranium, and Phosphates BY COLLIN KETTELL ON FEBRUARY 27, 2017 http://palisaderadio.com/matt-geiger-opportunities-abound-how-to-find-them-gold-uranium-and-phosphates/
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@Alan @newton @john_hornby - good to hear from other shareholders. Been with this company over a year after hearing about it from #chrismayer. I still like the business model and the people involved seemed genuine. I got in near the bottom and took some profits over $2. I think they will eventually reclaim the lost amount, but either way they keep the land. They are also paying the dividend which is nice. The underlying company is doing very well even if the stock price isn't. It could do with some decent marketing I think. Maybe #futuremoneytrends!
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@Alan @miningbookguy @bullmarketmove- I just had a read. Thanks. It was interesting but as Nick says, trading isn't really my thing, however, always good to hear other perspectives. Read a few of the books he recommended but been a while. We are so lucky with technology we have being able to access each other and information about companies vs people like #Nicolasdarvas back in his day!
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@Alan Crazy few days. Quite a lot of bargains today. Finally got filled on $NDM. Portfolio is getting nailed though. It shows how important having cash is at this time. It gives you the option to buy at depressed prices. However, if a major stock crash materialises, I have readied myself for the potential of my speculative portfolio to potentially half in value. It's always important to consider your downside before the upside.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Alan Yeh been good, I'm not to fussed with high quality names I already own going down, its gives me a chance to load up. $SSL is one, I always hope for it to get smashed to 4CAD, but still hasn't happened since early last year and may never happen. I didn't fill properly in December, so slowly beginning to fill some in now, I bought a small position in $BSX, has 80m cash or so, plus fully permitted project 7moz including a new 500k target with further upside. 4moz or so in reserves, Very High NPV at todays prices reasonably low Capex.......hoping it goes lower actually, less torque then some other names but good safer upside without excessive risk. Approved by Brent cook and @otto....... and institutions including agnico so should be ok.
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@Alan @FundamentalAnalysis- Yeah, my investment portfolio with names like $SII and $SSL are the best when they drop. I get the income from the dividends and are much less risky than the speculative names like $NDM. But I love the cyclical and volatile nature of the junior mining and uranium stocks.
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@Alan This article is well worth a read to understand the importance of #speculation #mises https://mises.org/blog/dwight-schrute-shows-us-why-speculators-are-so-important
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@Alan Great conversation between @leni and #dougcasey. This quote stood out for me: ' ld you say that you have successfully removed emotion from your speculations and investments, over the course of your speculating career? Why or Why not? Doug: I try to, but it’s very hard to separate your rational mind from your emotions. In fact, when I feel like buying something or selling something, I say, “wait a minute, maybe I should do exactly the opposite of what I feel.” So, it’s very hard, but it’s important. If you start thinking that way, acting against your own emotions, it does improve your results because, as a general rule, you don’t want to be in what they call a ‘crowded trade,’ where everyone thinks, “yeah, this is going to happen”. Maybe there are actually good reasons why something should happen, and maybe it will happen. But, if everybody already believes that and is already long or short, there’s no profit in it, the profit is already gone. #speculator #http://www.juniorstockreview.com/2017/03/03/a-conversation-with-doug-casey-life-freedom-and-speculation/
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@MiningBookGuy cool @Goldfinger! @TheNextBullMarketMove and @Alan (different 'Alan' who hangs out in #mbgtrends) are the only 2 people who got back to me, and I believe are reading it now or very soon. It was a best-seller in the late 60s, incredibly it's mostly forgotten today (which makes it more valuable to me). #TheMoneyGame
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@bullmarketmove thanks @Alan and i agree, its only because of technology that everyone can learn more about investing. Imagine being back in the 70's with no internet and you wanted to learn more about the bull market in gold and silver. Access to info is king :) especially with great videos and info from @MiningBookGuy
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@Alan Great quote from Charlie Munger here - "Investing is not supposed to be easy, and anybody who finds it easy is stupid.” If you are someone that thinks speculating and investing is going to be easy, think again. If you do think it is easy, you are at a disadvantage to the true investor that is always understanding that the more you know, the more you realise how little you actually know. It humbles you.
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@bullmarketmove @Alan you speak the truth :) there is always more to learn.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @bullmarketmove @Alan - Agree re: difficulty, especially in this low growth rate environment. The world population has increased rapidly in % terms over the last 75years. The next 75years will see in % terms a lot less growth, because population growth rates are slowing down and we are starting from a larger base. By default the growth rates have to be less..... then we have debt issues, demographic issues, retirees etc which the previous generation didn't face to such a degree all this means if there is another warren buffett (barring any serious inflation).....it's unlikely they would exist having invested in the traditional developed western economies, it will be via investing in riskier jurisdictions. #newbies
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@Alan Good interview with #jimrogers for #sprott. He talks about #gold #silver and believes they will go lower still. Remember no one can predict where the price will go. Personally at the minute I think having a good amount of physical gold, silver and cash is wise. It will be useful for when a recession occurs to snap up some bargains. Consider some high quality investments to generate some cash-flow and some strategic speculations when bargain opportunities arise. https://youtu.be/3TNmEY8mfJM+
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@bullmarketmove thanks for sharing that @Alan #jimrogers is a legend and his books are very good as well.
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@bullmarketmove Just to let everyone know, i've just published another interview, this time it's with the Amanada Van Dyke from Peterhouse Asset Management, We talked about the #Uranium market, what it takes to become a successful investor, and what to look for in a resource company. Enjoy! @bullmarketmove/the-next-bull-market-move-interview-amanda-van-dyke-at-peterhouse-asset-management #articles @Alan @MiningBookGuy @Jayfire @fundamentalAnalysis #TheNextBullMarketMove
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@MiningBookGuy @Alan RE: https://ceo.ca/mbgtrends?fca87b794f96 - thanks for sharing this #jimrogers interview. I'm a bit surprised he's so stubborn with his 'gold below $1000' prediction. i thought he might 'adjust' to saying it would go lower, but maybe just to $1100-1200 as a final bottom (but that's closer to what i think...and i give it far less than a 50% chance at this point). but i still like the way he describes everything, basically telling people NOT to listen to him and do their own research, but giving his opinions anyway. #mbgtrends
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@Alan @bullmarketmove- another good one mate. Never heard of Amanda before. @miningbookguy- who knows, maybe #gold will drop that low. Even if it did, #jimrogers would be fine I'm sure :) if it did drop that low, it would certainly test people's staying power. Yeah I agree, price predictions are just that...opinions.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Alan The case for physical gold in $ terms being Neutral (range bound) in my opinion is very very strong. The case for being bullish is fairly strong but not as strong as the majority in my opinion think. The case for being bearish as in Sub $1000 is weak....quite honestly I just cannot see it happening unless govt made holding gold by private individuals illegal, introducing special gold taxes, changing the margins required for gold trading, or allowing interest rates to get ahead of inflation to oust trump or maybe another liquidity crisis. I've tried to make a bear case for gold and I just cannot present a case....always open to opinions...... In normal trading the only way it could happen is just usual volatility, prices swinging both ways including down....but gold crashing into another long bear market...900s 800s 700s just cannot see it.
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@Alan @FundamentalAnalysis- I completely agree with you. I believe gold will go up over time. But I also realise what I believe may not occur and its good to mentally prepare yourself for the potential downside. If we have a recession #gold probably will decline in price, or said another way, cash will increase in value. The problem is people still think government will solve all their problems and until that changes gold may lag a little. But on the other note, it may not.
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@bullmarketmove many thanks @MiningBookGuy and @Alan, i've also seen that Justin Smyth from #nextbigtrade.com has been interviewed by #PalisadeGlobal #CollinKettell and he talked about #Uranium, well worth checking out http://palisaderadio.com/justin-smyth-lessons-learned-from-the-last-major-uranium-bull-market/
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@Alan This is such a brilliant 3 minutes https://youtu.be/pX52nQYDwf0+ from #rickrule.
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@Alan Great general overview video of $OR business model https://youtu.be/j5VkiXJDoZc+
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@Alan #rickrule discusses market timing in his monthly update with #collinkettell. Good section on his new venture in $SRHI https://youtu.be/e6tzvSHh8Io+
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@bullmarketmove Just to let everyone know, i've just published a new interview with Collin Kettell from Palisade Global.We talked about the bull market in #Uranium, PDAC 2017, and who he listens to as an investor. Enjoy! @bullmarketmove/the-next-bull-market-move-interview-collin-kettell-ceo-partner-palisade-global-investments-ltd @Excelsior @MiningBookGuy thank you for the nice words about my blog the other day. @jayfire @Alan @FundamentalAnalysis @tommy #NextBigTrade #TheNextBullMarketMove #RickRule #JustinSmyth
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@Alan Another #rickrule interview. He talks about many topics including #lithium and #cobalt to which I agree. https://youtu.be/dlUfA_VNQrg+
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@Alan @bullmarketmove- great interview. Collin is someone I keep my eye on closely and is an experienced while being young #speculator. The best combination in my opinion.
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@backstroke_ @Alan yeah Ricky says invest in DRC, sell your home and put it all on #cobalt here property prices are real cheap in Kolwezi if things go awry and you need a new crib. #EarlySaturdayMessage
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@bullmarketmove Thanks @MiningBookGuy and @Alan I think #CollinKettell and a few other guys I try and follow will be the Rick Rule's of the future.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Alan Good article, but I would propose a number of arguments. For example during this entire period I think since the 30s and definitely since the 70s when $ unpegged from gold, we have taken advantage of a debt cycle. Debt/income or Debt/GDP ratios have crept higher and higher .....the bigger question is how much higher can it go. Ray dalio seems to suggest we have hit the limits, and we can't squeeze much more out of the debt cycle. So I think there are some big things which suggest "its different for the next 50years and the past may not repeat in the future for us), and those crazy predictions of $10,000 gold could actually happen......High debt levels, already low interest rates suggest.....inflation will need to be forced to keep everything going, either that, or we strategically wind down the debts so we can restart another debt cycle.
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@Alan @FundamentalAnalysis- Yeah very good point. Sorry I didn't get back earlier. I don't seem to be getting the emails anymore. Yeah I tend to agree, however, I thought this was all going to happen years ago and it didn't. Gold may go higher but it may go lower. I'm betting on higher, but if it goes lower, at least I have already thought about how that will potentially effect my portfolio.
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@bullmarketmove Just to let everyone know, my latest interview with our very own Nick The Mining Book Guy is now published @bullmarketmove/the-next-bull-market-move-interview-nick-the-mining-book-guy We had a lot of fun doing this, we talked about what Nick looks for in a stock, the psychology behind bull and bear markets, and which two books every investor should read. Enjoy! @MiningBookGuy @Alan @Jayfire @TheDailyGold @tommy @theNextBigRush @fundamentalAnalysis #TheNextBullMarketMove #RickRule #Gold #Speculator
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@Alan @bullmarketmove- thanks for sharing the interview with Nick. Really enjoyed learning more about him. Similar approach to myself. I like to find good people in bear markets, do some research and make a bet. This helps me become more likely to look deeper as I have 'skin in the game'. I don't hold as many stocks though as I couldn't keep up with that many. Thanks for the book recommendation too #thezurichaxioms. Never heard of it before. Yes the difference between a #speculator and #investing is one of my pet peeves. I think #dougCasey sums it up best and all his books are excellent. I consider royalty companies as investments as they are really finance companies. Looking forward to reading your next interview @bullmarketmove.
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@bullmarketmove Thanks @Alan yes, Nick does have a great approach to picking stocks and in a lot of cases it's like being a detective-who are the insiders-what's the track record of management-where are the assets, are they in a jurisdiction I'm comfortable with etc etc and on and on it goes. But I love it. :) and I'm so glad Nick recommended #TheZurichAxioms to me, I had never heard of it either. #mbgtrends #TheNextBullMarketMove
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@MiningBookGuy @bullmarketmove - thanks again for the great interview! @bullmarketmove/the-next-bull-market-move-interview-nick-the-mining-book-guy i will make sure to spread the word soon enough ;) @alan - thanks for your thoughts as well! I'm glad you enjoy the book recommendations...I really like sharing these ideas, and getting them from you guys as well. If you do read #TheZurichAxioms, I'd love to hear your thoughts on it. The same goes for #TheMoneyGame, which we discussed a little while ago. And I'm very thankful to @bullmarketmove for recommending #HowIMade2MillionInTheStockMarket to me! #books #mbgtrends #TheNextBullMarketMove
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@Alan @miningbookguy- Yeah likewise. I really enjoy hearing other people's ideas so I can challenge my own ideas in search of the truth and to help me become a more rational speculator. I haven't read anymore of #themoneygame yet as I've been distracted by other books and courses at the moment. But what I tend to do is make notes on every book I read. So once I'm done with it, I'll make a quick post with what I deem to be the ' best bits' and share them on here.
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@Alan Osisko Gold Royalties: Expected To Outperform https://seekingalpha.com/article/4061723?source=ansh $OR, $AEM, $AUY, $DRLDF, $FPRGF, $FTMNF, $GG, $ICGQF, $NGD, $OBNNF, $SGSVF, $VITFF, $WLDVF
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@Alan "When everyone believes something is risky, their unwillingness to buy usually reduces the price to the point where it's not risky." - Howard Marks
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@Alan Some more wisdom on #investing and #speculating with #rickrule https://youtu.be/tS16YJgyKz8+
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@Alan The same thing happened with me @TheNextBigRush. I think I heard about the arbitrage opportunity via Jayant Bhandari. I already owned $FF but when I heard about getting free shares in Irving, I bought. I didn't realise it was a 10x as it was only a few hundred dollars in my account.
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@Alan Great discussion with #marinkatusa and #frankgiustra https://youtu.be/CvMW9n-1rXA+
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@Alan "Anything you do to improve your talents and make yourself more valuable will get paid off in terms of appropriate real purchasing power. Anything you invest in yourself, you get back tenfold, and nobody can tax it away or steal it from you." - Warren Buffett
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@Alan Just as the breakup of the Soviet Union had a good effect for both the world at large and for Americans, the breakup of the EU should be viewed in the same light. Freeing an economy anywhere increases prosperity and opportunity everywhere. And it sets a good example. So Americans ought to look forward to the breakup of the EU almost as much as the Europeans themselves. Unfortunately, most Americans are quite insular. And Europeans are so used to socialism that they have even less of a grasp of economics than Americans. But it’s going to happen anyway. Initially there’s going to be some chaos, and some inconvenience. Conventional investors don’t like wild markets, but turbulence is actually a good thing from the point of view of a speculator. It’s a question of your psychological attitude. Understanding psychology is as important as economics. They’re the two things that make the markets what they are. Volatility is actually your friend in the investment world. People are naturally afraid of upsets. They’re afraid of any kind of crisis. This is natural. But it’s only during a crisis that you can get a real bargain. You have to look at the bright side and take a different attitude than most people have. Once the EU falls apart, there are going to be huge investment opportunities. People forget how cheap markets can become. I remember in the mid-1980s, there were three markets in the world in particular I was very interested in: Hong Kong, Belgium, and Spain. All three of those markets had similar characteristics. You could buy stocks in those markets for about half of book value, about three or four times earnings, and average dividend yields of their indices were 12–15%—individual stocks were sometimes much more. And of course since then, those dividends have gone way up. The stock prices have soared. So I expect that that’s going to happen in the future. In one, several, many, or most of the world’s approximately 40 investable markets. Right now, however, we’re involved in a worldwide bubble in equities. It can go the opposite direction. People forget how cheap stocks can get. I think we’re headed into very bad times. Chances are excellent you’re going to see tremendous bargains. People are chasing after stocks right now with 1% dividend yields and 30 times earnings, and they want to buy them. At some point in the future these stocks are going to be selling for three times earnings and they’re going to be yielding 5%, maybe 10% in dividends. But at that point most people will be afraid to buy them. In fact, they won’t even want to know they exist at that point. I’m not a believer in market timing. But, that said, I think it makes sense to hold fire when the market is anomalously high. The chaos that’s building up right now in Europe can be a good thing—if you’re well positioned. You don’t want to go down with the sinking Titanic. You want to survive so you can get on the next boat taking you to a tropical paradise. But right now you’re entering the stormy North Atlantic. – Doug Casey #dougCasey #speculator
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@bullmarketmove Many thanks for that @MiningBookGuy Here is the post again incase anyone missed it :) @Jayfire @Alan @tommy Opportunity to ask #RickRule questions via #TheBullMarketMove upcoming interview! See here: http://thenextbullmarketmove.tumblr.com/post/159883562025/it-is-with-great-pleasure-that-i-will-be "It is with great pleasure that I will be interviewing Rick Rule again very soon. If you have any questions that you would like me to ask Rick I will do my best to ask him. Feel free to reach out to me at adams236@gmail.com " Consider reaching out to @BullMarketMove via that email. His previous #RickRule interviews are some of the best on the net!
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@Alan A lot of good observations for #speculators and #investors from #whitneygeorge and #rickrule of #sprott. https://youtu.be/cyycYsvrpV0+
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Alan Great link I've running through a few things, will be on the teranga Q1 call, then I'll watch this....its useful for $SII holders as Rick and Whitney will be leading the newly reformed company from my understanding.
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