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@FundamentalAnalysis @Brendan That's good news if the case most of us have thought that should be in someone elses hands.
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@Brendan @ocotilloredux you are a disgrace buddy. you're saying you'd like to murder 3 Russian (? actually I think they are American) bloggers because they are "fake news". the society we live in allow all kinds of scum like you to voice their thoughts... except when it comes to threats of violence.
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@Onlyflaws @brendan Its the chat heroes that are allowed to say anything. Good to see that there are people like you who say whats needed to say. Where are the moderators?
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@Brendan For what it's worth, I came across zerohedge in 2010 during the flash crash - I found they had a post with audio to the S&P pits and thought that was interesting. Then for a while (I don't think they do it anymore) they constructed stat models showing how rich/cheap certain indices (like S&Ps) were to models (like bonds, Eurodollars, FX etc) I found that very useful. Then I noticed that authors I'm a fan of (like say Taleb and Ron Paul) started getting heavy coverage there. Since that time, they have strayed a bit from what I would call their core competency - which I understand since we've had years now of one way up markets in stocks and down in metals - and they have a bias the other way ( I probably do too) I don't find them as useful as I did, but I still read them sometimes. I dont' have a problem with someone voicing an opinion whether I agree with it or not. Also, just because someone is not anti-Russian, doesn't mean they're Russian agents
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@Brendan All that said, I also subscribe to FT and love it. I haven't come across another outlet that writes as well as they do. Their editorial page is pretty leftist, but their news coverage is straight down the middle unbiased. They also have a lot of column inches devoted to oil gas and mining. I try to cover a broad base of perspectives to keep from being led astray ideologically.
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@Brendan I agree in general but I would say a site like Bloomberg is a worse offender... story links like "You are about to pay more to fill up your car, and that's a good thing"
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@Brendan maybe that's part of the reason I prefer print edition of papers
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@ocotilloredux No @Brendan. You are a dickhead. Added any value here buddy? Or should I say comrade? ZH is the biggest pile of trash I have ever seen on the web. Fuck you.
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@Brendan although I think it isn't allowed (blackout period) it would be awesome to see Pete Breese come out with a large buy now. that would give shareholders plenty of confidence in the company
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@Brendan @ocotilloredux @Murat or anyone else concerned. This is pretty interesting. I have to imagine there are some kind of Terms of Service for ceo.ca. I also have to imagine that @ocotilloredux is in violation of them. In summary he issues soft death threats against Zerohedge bloggers, I call him out on it, he issues profanity laced insult reply to me. then gets lots of approvals, thumbs up, attaboys from his pals. Oh and to answer your question/demand, yes I have provided some value. You see, I don't talk much but when I do, it sometimes is useful. Like when I debated 90sbigpicure on January 19 2016 about whether it was a good day to buy Teck (I thought it was a good day to buy it - he didn't... BWDIK it was a lively debate all the same) or when I told the board I was buying Freeport, anglo, Vedanta around the same time. or when I said I was buying Katanga at 16 cents. Or when four weeks ago I said it was a good time to buy gold at 1225 - or silver three weeks ago at 16.25. I guess I could go on but what's the point? I am alone and you have all your friends here to slap you on the back no matter what you say. So I guess I'll step out and let you do whatever it is that you do. Doug Beattie is it? Good to know, I'm getting to know more and more people in this business - it's good to know who are honorable and who are charlatans. I'll keep an eye out for you Doug - if our paths ever cross on some future base metal deal. Zinc is one of my favorite plays right now actually, so it could happen. I had a decent run on Vedanta and am looking to buy in to something else
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@Brendan the term devalue only applies to fixed exchange rates also
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@barracuda @Brendan If the US Treasury makes a market in gold at USD $10,000 x $10,100 assuming gold's value is much less than $10,000, $10,000 WOULD be a devaluation of the USD.
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@Brendan yes, if they implemented a gold standard at that price, I guess you could call that devaluation in a way. Exchange rates have no fixed value now, so the term "DE value" does not apply if you are a word stickler ;)
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@Brendan IMO the worst of the GDXJ is over and we should rebound for the rest of the week and beyond. Friday may bring some vol but I don't necessarily think it will be all downside. Today was a good time to add futures, I added silver and platinum. I am about as long as I want to be. Stocks I've added recently: teranga, perseus, semafo, anglo, primero.
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@Brendan your favorite midtiers are going to jump back and forth 3 or 4 percent this afternoon but if you're looking to get in at a 20% off sale this afternoon, you are disappointed. just my opinion from seeing this before.
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@Brendan oh and Rickards a treasury insider?! good one!
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@Goldfinger @Brendan Rickards is a treasury insider like i'm a Goldman Sachs insider...
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@Brendan are you the metropolitan man?
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@Brendan shocking truth was revealed april 12 I guess
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@Stocksluice @Goldfinger Thank you. @Brendan, something of this magnitude has happened before?
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@Brendan yeah I think December 2014 there was a big one.
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@Brendan also in general the quarterly witching has the same effect
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@Highheat @Brendan Do you know much about Rickards, doesn't sound like it.
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@Brendan @Highheat I know enough to know that deep CIA or Treasury insiders don't promote their secrets
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@Highheat @Brendan Oh wow that's heavy
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@Brendan what did he tell you april 12?
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@Brendan @MiningBookGuy ag/farmland call a mixed bag IMO yeah ag prices very depressed but the land itself is pretty expensive right now
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@MiningBookGuy @Brendan - when i re-read my comment, i was kind of thinking that. the reason I made it is that he has pounded the table so, so much on it, like somehow ag/farmland was going to rise above all other asset classes, everything else in the commodity/real estate sector. he has just been really wrong on this for a long time, and he lost a lot of credibility in terms of making calls for me. I know he used to do Barron's interviews in the early 1980s. THAT was the time to listen to #JimRogers!
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@Brendan yes, overall I would say his call on that sector has been wrong
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@Brendan you've already had the huge buying opportunity over the last month in the names being cut... IMO the best of them - $rsg.ax $smf $tgz off the top of my head not sure what else was in there maybe $pru.ax $org the thing about markets is they are forward looking... this has been known for months and price reflected that a long time ago
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@Newton @Brendan + 1
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@Stocksluice That's my sense of it too, @Brendan... I've been loading up the past week or so.
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@Brendan sure a couple percent but IMO if you think you're going to buy them 15% off this afternoon that's crazy
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@mountains_of_glory @Brendan Very likely $CGG bottomed today. Look at the volume exchange. Superb buying opp! #gold #index
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@Brendan never heard of that one
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@Brendan price/book can be used as a guideline in valuing producers... it works with companies that have been through multiple boom/bust cycles and DON'T write up/down their properties. investment decisions can be made based on whether they are at the low/high end of the p/b range and what point in the cycle you are.
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@Brendan also... wishing someone all the luck in the world and then saying they'll need it comes off as trolling or pandering.
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@CriticalInvestor @Brendan If you do your dd like this you will need it. "Opinion" comment was a little less respectful though, especially considering the industry standards that were targeted by it
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@Brendan would you still feel this way @CriticalInvestor if it turned out @excelsior had a better record of investment returns than you did? regardless of what industry standards are?
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@Brendan yeah it's funny when someone tells ME that the tools I use have no predictive value. In this case it was p/b. Usually it's something along the lines of technical vs. fundamental. A lot of people used to say technical analysis is worthless. Me and a lot of people use charts to make trades, and money has been made... so I guess what is their definition of worthless?
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@Brendan Also, for a company where management has integrity, skin in the game and are not serial diluters or restructuring happy, P/B can be a useful tool. It reflects how much this management paid for their capex or investments and if they are competent, it should hold its value through cycles
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@Brendan @tim_oliver there was a section of taleb's last book that described how the biggest trader of "green lumber" futures didn't know what it was. He thought it was dyed green or something - didn't even know it meant fresh cut trees - or something like that. not a company, but same concept
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@Brendan the "fundamental" guys kept coming to this trader for advice on supply or new acreage planting and realized pretty quickly that this guy didn't know anything about the "fundamentals" of lumber - but he did know how to trade it
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@CriticalInvestor @Brendan No, remember the chimpansee throwing darts?
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@Brendan ok..
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@Brendan yeah sure... so most analysts are worse than random is the implication... this guy though was the best out there and he was the equivalent of a blindfolded monkey to the experts
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@Brendan I think people used to think that investors couldn't beat the market... even in the face of evidence to the contrary. people still believe in efficient markets even though investors like buffet and his followers have shown that investors can beat the market.
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@Brendan not every time. if he really said that then he would have said what he did wasn't possible/didn't happen
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@tim_oliver @Brendan - I imagine the investing world looks way different to Buffet than it does to us. He can wait for one thing. We venture investors jump around like Mexican jumping beans, or sailors with chimp shit on their whites.
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@Brendan agreed... if you need action the odds are not in your favor
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