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@2pac Would not be surprised to see a 20 handle for oil over the next year. Maybe even under $20. @Brendan
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@Brendan you stand alone
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@Brendan i'm leaning the other way... I think 70s
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@Brendan no heat in the future
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Brendan Lets hope your feeling on $TGZ works out, I'm quite heavy in that stock as I cannot find a properly functioning, risk adjusted producer thats cheaper in West Africa....only thing bothering me is Franco's stream on sabadola which is crippling FCF potential otherwise sabadola would be Excellent at current gold prices. Hopefully Teranga starts funding everything else using just debt and equity,.....based on Richards comments seems like that will be the case. $SWA and $ORG both great stories as well, high insider ownership which I like, and ounces in the ground with upside exploration potential.......
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@Brendan sounds good. gold fields is my biggest holding. very cheap for a major. I think the market has it wrong re south deep. they have the potential to be mining that at 500k ounces a year for 80 years.
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@Brendan are there any 400 ounce gold contracts?
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@Brendan yeah I know I was wondering if goldfinger was talking about standard contracts or some other I hadn't heard of
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@Goldfinger @Brendan Ah what I meant is that you can get delivery in 400 ounce bars, buy 4 100 ounce contracts. 99% of people trading gold futures don't take delivery but there's a whole process and you pick up bars from a location either in NYC or Chicago. Kyle Bass took delivery of gold bars from the COMEX, they delivered about a billion bucks of gold to him in Texas.
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@Brendan didn't know kyle had that kind of money
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@Brendan I heard he cornered the market for nickels also
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@Brendan flying? maybe below the radar flying. $hwy is flying
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@stateside @Brendan - This is why......... To management's knowledge, this package of rocks has not been known to exist outside the Sullivan mine area until this drill hole. Possible Sully II? $HWY
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@Brendan @stateside that is potentially pretty interesting. $hwy has been on my watch list for a while.
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@Brendan that would be some trick if sudan managed to be #1 in African gold production next year. It's hard to believe but it's true they have been steadily moving up the rankings. And with little fanfare or major support @Pierre $org
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@Pierre @HHorseman @MiningBookGuy @Brendan Yeah ! $org is such an interesting #sudan story. If the company is good enough for lundin and beaty, it's good enough for me. Let's see !
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@Brendan juniors that are small producers with cash flow could do that. couple years ago $rpm bought back
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@Brendan I wish ceos had some sense of market timing. i'd love to see a company raise money at say 20 cents then if the stock dropped to 10 or 12 announce a buy back program
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@0Kib @Brendan Buybacks are meant for companies who may not have productive use of capital that can earn positive EVA. For juniors, who are usually perennially cash strapped, buyback would add little value. Having less float in a shell would still keep it a shell.
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@Brendan $tgz is just baffling. no idea what's going on. the strongest upmoves today and lately have been south African names (gold fields, sibanye, anglo, lonmin) maybe something positive is coming out of government - department of mines and their charter negotiation although I don't see any news yet
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@Excelsior @Brendan - I agree that $TGZ is quite baffling...but Mr Market is a cruel and humbling teacher. *My new theory is that nobody in the marketplace has heard about their success because CEO Richard Young speaks in a #LibraryVoice all the time. He would be great at putting kids to bed at night with a slow and methodical story..... Not as peppy when he's promoting one of the better mid-tier Gold producers. (just a theory mind you....) Teranga Gold - The non-hyped even-keeled and quiet #CorporatePresentation April 5, 2017 - Zurich, Switzerland - European Gold Forum http://www.europeangoldforum.org/egf17/company-webcast/TGZ:CN/ As for #SouthAfrica, that is also baffling as the news out of their country has been depressing for the mining industry. A great resource is many of the posts that @MiningBookGuy puts up in the panel ~AUfrica. Check out that room as there is always some interesting news blurb someone is posting in there (or check out the rooms that have a red # on this message). I feel MUCH more comfortable with the success of #WestAfrica in gold mining the last few years versus Central or South #Africa. Cheers!
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@Brendan January 2016 had all the bifurcation I could stand. I remember watching silver standard and seeing it drop 20% in a week - while silver was up 15 cents
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Brendan LOL but you've been through it before so this time it would be easiar.....I always think about what the company is doing and don't concern myself with the share price, any divergence if the company is fundamentally sound is all good. Markets are reasonably efficient in my opinion, everything eventually adjusts. If $TGZ dropped to 35c and gold was at $1500, that's a no brainer...that's not the time to be scared, if you see it as buying a piece of the business its far easiar to stomach.
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@MiningBookGuy hey all, great content in #mbgtrends today! i should have contributed earlier, but was happy to glance at it throughout the day. thanks to @HHorseman (nice #Turkey charts/article!) @Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis @Excelsior (thanks for ~AUfrica shout-out!) @Brendan @Onlyflaws @PhotoJ @Vin (nicely organized #lithium re-post!) and anyone I missed!
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@MiningBookGuy wow, lots of great #mbgtrends content today, you guys are on a roll, @Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis @Excelsior @Onlyflaws @HHorseman & anyone I missed! Too much for me to catch up on right now, but a few things: @Jayfire RE: https://ceo.ca/mbgtrends?e309db73a420 - I posted some stuff on that #Ghana news in relation to #Sudan here: https://ceo.ca/~aufrica?ba95eb1c10f5 Oh, I see you just posted the article, so you're caught up on it anyway :) @FundamentalAnalysis RE: https://ceo.ca/mbgtrends?8171fa6df150 - great #WestAfrica list! I'd say the biggest one you're missing is $RSG.AX ...i'll have a bit more to say about them later. It does go beyond #WestAfrica, but that's the core of the value and it has high-growth potential. That's one of @Brendan's choices, and it's mainly overlooked because it's only listed on ASX. #ASX-Stocks I don't have time to respond to anything else right now, but will have a lot more to write later! #mbgtrends
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@MiningBookGuy $RSG.AX #EuropeanGoldForum: webcast: http://www.europeangoldforum.org/egf17/company-webcast/RSG:AU/ powerpoint: http://wsw.com/webcast/egf17/rsg.ax/presentationDownload.pdf This is a strong presentation from John Welborn, and made me realize that $RSG.AX is a serious player in #WestAfrica, and #Africa overall. They have a mine in #Australia, but #Africa is clearly the focus. #Syama is a really impressive mine in #Mali, and it seems like there's potential to greatly increase mine-life. Importantly, $RSG.AX is a big player in #exploration, with strategic investments in $KGL $MSR.AX $OKU.AX, which are in #DRC ( #Congo ), #Tanzania, and #Mali respectively. See this slide for confirmation of interest: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cfjpbi-Resolute_Exploration.png+ Note that Welborn is asked about $OKU.AX and #Mali at the end of the presentation. He really likes the #Fekola $BTO area, based on his previous experience. If one just focuses on the Canadian Exchanges, it would seem people are mostly ignoring #Mali. But it's clear that $RSG.AX is stealthily trying to get positions in key areas like this (though IMO, $OKU.AX is greatly overvalued as a specific example right now). Anyway, the point is that this is a very informative and well-done presentation. And it's worth following $RSG.AX as an important player (a parallel is $ACA.L, which is also underfollowed simply because it lacks a Canadian listing). Shout-Outs to @Brendan & @Nick who have been following this one for a while! ~AUfrica #mbgtrends
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@Brendan on resolute $rsg.ax it is a great company and I like it a lot. but it's not cheap. it is reasonable on price/cash flow and price/earnings. even pays a nice little dividend. but for the reserves and production levels it's pricey. I think whats going on is that the market has chosen it as a "premiere producer" the way the market idolizes mark bristow and randgold and values them above and beyond any reasonable company comp. Resolute has managerial and operational and promotional excellence. They have done everything right - down to offering their dividend in bullion to those so inclined - (great PR there - makes the gold bugs purr with delight and doesn't cost anything so other companies should consider) I've held them for a couple years and still hold, even though I did seriously think about selling over the last few months. I'll probably hold but when I think about would I want 2 or 3 terangas or perseus or 1 resolute I would definitely pick the first two. actually based on market values, I could have perseus, teranga, orca, orezone and sarama for about the same price as resolute. That would give me a stranglehold on the future of west Africa. I pick the former. Resolute has been sucked into the gdxj black hole, but at the last interim top in February, it was valued at around 40% of gold fields. There's just no way that's right - $gfi with its close to 200 million ounces and 2.5 million a year 130 year history. I give John Welborn huge credit - he has done everything right - from not diluting two years ago - they raised bonds convertible at $1 instead of issuing common at 30 cents - to raising funds recently at $2 a share to the gold dividend to buying up central African explorers. I just wouldn't buy it now. I'm happy to hold though
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@MiningBookGuy @Brendan RE: https://ceo.ca/mbgtrends?9fdc56ad699f - great $RSG.AX summary! I really haven't analyzed the numbers closely on the various mid-tiers (though I know $TGZ better than the others). But I agree with the relative comparisons, and would also kind of put $SMF in the same boat as $RSG.AX in terms of being chosen as a 'premier producer', as you say. I think #Mana for $SMF in #BurkinaFaso and #Syama for $RSG.AX in #Mali are chosen as elite assets, while #Sabodala for $TGZ in #Senegal and #Edikan for $PRU $PRU.AX in #Ghana are the next tier (though isn't it funny how all these 'core' assets are comparable, and each in a different country in #WestAfrica?) Anyway, I would easily bet on $TGZ out of all of these for many of the reasons already discussed. But it's very interesting to compare, and $RSG.AX at least seems aggressive with exploration. I consider $TGZ and $RSG.AX to be the most 'dynamic' of these 4 choices, though $SMF could definitely surprise (they are the most tight-lipped about their plans in general). And as another comparison to your $RSG.AX holding - I sold some $EDV on the way up, and wouldn't buy now. But I will keep holding the rest of my shares, as I think it will continue to receive a premium. ~AUfrica #mbgtrends
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@FundamentalAnalysis @brendan great thoughts on $RSG.AX. I haven't looked at the company in great detail. But I thought I saw a 300k producer. About 7moz with 3moz or so in reserves....multiple mines and about 850m AUD market cap...and producing FCF based on 2016 results. First glance it looked interesting, but perhaps if you delve in as you have its probably a lot more expensive then it appears. $KDX has a similar market cap to $rsg.ax but $rsg.ax to me has far stronger financial power and more ounces. Obviously $KDX has the whole nevada,north america benefit
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@Brendan thanks guys. yes that summary is right. maybe it's more accurate that the other options available to buy are cheap and resolute is fair/reasonable. it's also going to get the large institutional money before the cheaper producers because it's proved itself and the others have not - I think that attracts some people more (not me)
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@MiningBookGuy i've got to run now, but great chatting with you guys! @Brendan @FundamentalAnalysis
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@Brendan never heard him say he wanted a strong dollar @Goldfinger
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@Goldfinger @Brendan I'm talking pre-election campaigning. Audio/video of him from 2005-2015 he would always say something like "the US is the strongest country in the world and it should have a strong currency..." and then talk about how the Fed was doing it wrong or we were spending too much blah blah blah.
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@Brendan really? ok I thought that was one area he was fairly consistent on was in favor of weak currency. I remember when he was talking brexit last june he said the pound depreciating was good for UK
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@Goldfinger @Brendan he shifted his currency views last year. Now he also appears to have shifted his views on deficit spending because some of these proposals I'm seeing are going to create a huge deficit.
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@Brendan supposedly there's a large tax cut proposal coming this week. you guys must be apoplectic
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@Maggee @Brendan, it was widely reported that he phoned Mike Flynn at 3:00am and asked him whether a strong dollar or a weak dollar was better for the economy. Mike Flynn didn't know either so the next morning they had to ask an economist. This was going around in February so it was post-election. --http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-called-mike-flynn-about-us-dollar-at-3-am-2017-2
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@Brendan let me guess they called putin and sechin for further guidance?
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@Brendan no doubt if growth doesn't pick up the tax plan will raise the deficit
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@Goldfinger @Brendan why would I be apoplectic? Also unlikely to be enacted due to rules regarding reconciliation process which will be used to pass the tax cuts.
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@Brendan my prediction: link it to infrastructure plan and it will pass
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@Brendan don't know I guess because dems won't back it @maggee
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@Brendan economic growth was a lot higher though back before corp and individual taxes took off
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@Brendan it's not right for a a pro business country to have the highest business tax rate in the world
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@Brendan 15% would be more in line with the rest of the industrialized world
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@Brendan that doesn't strike you as odd?
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@Brendan yeah that's a huge part of multinational business in the US - tax arbitrage. headquarter in the US but add the value in Caymans or Bermuda or wherever taxes are low... revenues come in the US the product is "made" in the no tax land where local taxes (0) are assessed then sold back to the US parent company at an inflated rate
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@Brendan get rid of this nonsense - one time reasonable repatriation expense on cash returned to the US parent company. earmark all of this money to pay for infrastructure or other project dems will get behind, attach the provision to more sweeping tax cuts and you have something that will pass both houses
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@Brendan ok write your congress person ;)
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