Almost every Saturday I do a couple of ten minute chart analysis videos for Trading Lab subscribers. These sessions are valuable for me to capture my raw, unfiltered thoughts on various markets, asset classes, and individual stocks on quiet mornings without quotes flickering in the background. These videos also allow subscribers to see how I think as I break down charts and separate the noise from the important stuff.
On the morning of March 31st, 2018 I posted a video going over several individual charts including GTT, NVO, and NXE. I was in rare form during this video and my thoughts were quite 'candid' (including colorful adjectives) in many ways on several topics. A couple days after posting this video I realized that my thoughts on NexGen's chart and price action were exactly the sort of sentiments that one would probably see at a major bottom; I was holding the stock and hating it, admittedly I was being stubborn.
The following excerpt constitutes a substantial chunk of my comments from that video on NexGen:
"NexGen....just a disaster. This is what happens when there's no news, there's no juice, there's no life in the story. The stock can drop 20% on no volume; you basically have a few million shares selling last week and the stock falls off a cliff because nobody is buying this thing. Nobody is interested in the story, it has no institutional support. Nobody gives a f*c$ about uranium here. And for good reason, honestly uranium isn't doing anything, the sector sucks.......I own this (NexGen), and I don't like that I own it. I've been stubborn, just like i've been with HIVE. But i'm sorry, this chart just sucks. "
In fairness to the March 31st, 2018 version of myself this is the chart I was staring at:
NXE.TO (November 30, 2018 - March 29, 2018)
After suffering through a tight consolidation for several weeks, NXE had just dumped more than 20% in one week. Needless to say It was very difficult to find something to be positive on that day. However, it is just this sort of pessimism and despondence that major bottoms are made from.
To put these comments into perspective, you have a shareholder who understands all of the fundamental long term arguments for uranium, he gets the unique value of the Arrow Deposit, yet he was hating the price action so much at the end of March that he was very close to capitulation. As it turned out this video was a great sentiment tell - if we had a "Daily Sentiment Index" for the uranium sector it probably would have registered in the low single-digits the day I recorded that video.
I find this exercise of recording ones thoughts on video to be valuable and I highly recommend that every active market participant try it. Even if you're the only one who watches them, it gives you something to return to and allows you to see what you were thinking at a given moment in time.
It's important that you are raw and candid in your analysis - don't hold back on your thoughts and also be real about your mistakes while acknowledging yourself for your successes. I have been recording similar videos for eight years (sometimes every morning) and there is something about being recorded (again, even if you're the only one who watches these videos) that sharpens ones focus and tightens up ones market analysis.
Read Also: A Turn In Uranium And The Best Way To Play It
DISCLAIMER: The work included in this article is based on current events, technical charts, and the author’s opinions. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. This publication contains forward-looking statements, including but not limited to comments regarding predictions and projections. Forward-looking statements address future events and conditions and therefore involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements. The views expressed in this publication and on the EnergyandGold website do not necessarily reflect the views of Energy and Gold Publishing LTD, publisher of EnergyandGold.com. This publication is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always thoroughly do your own due diligence and talk to a licensed investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Junior resource companies can easily lose 100% of their value so read company profiles on www.SEDAR.com for important risk disclosures. It’s your money and your responsibility.
