I won't mention anything about the non-farm payrolls report other than to say it confirmed what I already knew, the economy isn't as strong as was feared.

The most important chart for me today is the chart of the 10-year Treasury Note Yield:


10-Year Treasury Yield (Daily)

A weekly close below the 2.40% yield level would add a lot of weight to the idea that yields topped in December and there is large "rising inflation" trade that still has a lot of unwinding to do.

After appearing to face multiple headwinds at the end of last year, precious metals now benefit from several tailwinds; market expectations had shifted to a rising real rate environment and now we are seeing those expectations not being fulfilled as yields at the short end (2 year and 5 year) have recently moved into negative territory again after spending more than a month in positive territory. Meanwhile long end rates have started to ever so slightly shift lower and now appear poised for a larger downside correction.


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