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@MiningBookGuy @Jayfire - I might be wrong, but I felt that the follow-up drill results really 'confirmed' that Kakula would be a game-changer...and when you look at the timing of those (as well as metallurgical results), they line up much better with the hockey stick rise starting in mid-2016. see the following: june 20th- https://www.ivanhoemines.com/news/news-releases/exceptional-grades-and-widths-of-mineralization-confirmed-june-20-2016 july 5th- https://www.ivanhoemines.com/news/news-releases/excellent-copper-recoveries-and-concentrate-grades-confirmed-2016 august 11th- https://www.ivanhoemines.com/news/news-releases/ivanhoe-mines-announces-what-could-prove-to-be-africa-s-most-significant-copper-discovery-at-kakula-on-the-kamoa-copper-project-in-the-democratic-republic-of-congo I completely agree that the market can be extremely slow to catch on to many plays in the junior sector, and all-of-a-sudden, interest can come back, and it's hard to explain. But I think it's worth emphasizing this particular play, because I am convinced the 'big money' started piling in specifically based on these results. I mean, Kamoa-Kakula is now going down as the best thing ever...it was already 'really good' with just Kamoa. But I really feel that a lot of people holding the company throughout 2016 have not really thought that hard about the 'discovery game-changer' here. Of course, copper price going up helps as well. But this is fundamentally different from a story like Northern Dynasty. I also believe it's different from Nexgen, in the sense that Nexgen continues to have excellent results in the uranium space. But uranium is still down relative to copper, and the results aren't surprising the market. In this case, I am strongly saying that Kakula DID surprise the market, and the only reason I'm emphasizing it is because I overlooked it myself, and it's a very unusual event. I know what you're saying with Birimian...but I wouldn't put these in the same boat. We would have to look at other 'tier 1' discoveries...I can't immediately think of any in 2016. Again, the main point for discussing it was that this was that the 'Ivanhoe bet' might have already been a 'good' bet, regardless of Kakula. But I really think what happened in the summer of 2016 at Kakula is the #1 factor for the hockey stick rise. Yes, the promotion factor is huge. But somehow, the results actually outdid the promotion. #1 promotion + #1 results in the world in 2016, amazing. #mbgtrends
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@MiningBookGuy @Jayfire - sorry for the length there, but it's an especially interesting topic to me, again because i've been trying to study up on kamoa-kakula recently, AND i've started obsessing about 'tier-1' deposits across all commodities. there's something to be said about the absolutely massive stuff, which i haven't studied enough up until now (though books like 'The Big Score' and 'The Golden Giant/Hemlo' are good places to get a feel for this). #mbgtrends
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@MiningBookGuy @Jayfire - and another sidenote: thinking more on Birimian, keep in mind it did go through a 5-fold move very rapidly, kind of getting ahead of itself (but the drill results came through to support it). this coincidentally makes me think of another Friedland play besides Ivanhoe - Cordoba/CDB. I was going through the history there. And despite having some pretty good historical results, I believe it was like a 5-6 bigger while people were WAITING for assays to come early in 2016! That was has moved even further. But to me, that was so weird that the market seemed to figure it out, and the assays actually worked out. it wasn't like a typical leak...it took forever for those assays. No one has really gone through the explaining there. But anyway, the point is I'm just thinking of the Birimian and Cordoba share price moves and results together...and I put a story like Ivanhoe with Kamoa-Kakula in a whole different category. None of this stuff is easy, but it's super helpful to try to breakdown the histories, and CEO.CA is a huge help for us to do this. #mbgtrends
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@Dunite How long the Flavor of the month-lithium will last, time will tell. The moment a new battery configuration is designed and released, lithium may take a back seat. Lithium production will have to expand exponentially to accommodate all the new potential usage that is expected to come on line in the next few years. Right at the moment 4 major companies produce much of the worlds production-90%, Albemarle being king. Most are mining brines, which are the easy pickings. The rest mine hard rock spodumene. As it stands at the moment, there is not enough lithium reserves of any kind to support the future demand of lithium in usage of hundreds of millions of electric cars that the world will need to be truly green-- A lovely nice fantasy ..... Kind of reminds me of Scandium-great metal, great potential but limited production-about ten tonnes a year, thus limiting the usage of the metal...@MiningBookGuy, @Jayfire, you all discuss this and think it over.....
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@MiningBookGuy @Dunite RE: https://ceo.ca/@miningbookguy?8aa37e725447 I do not currently own any lithium companies, and don't have a strong opinion either way on this. I am sure @Jayfire does though! And he'll probably get back to you when he gets a chance For the record, my discussion IVN, BGS, CDB, etc. wasn't about the commodities, but just trying to differentiate in terms of size and stock price action for different discoveries. In terms of specific commodities, I am also a huge fan of gold plays, even if they are smaller in scale. But I'm much more focused on larger projects (approaching tier-1 if possible) for many of the other commodities. Not saying I want to discuss this right now, but this is just for some clarification since this conversation can go in a lot of directions from here. #mbgtrends
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@Jayfire @Dunite lithium ion is nothing new or exciting at all... Sony comemericalized it way back in 1991. What this goes to show is that advances in battery tech are slow to come by and for good reason... I used to work as a characterization engineer, testing "proven" lithium ion batteries and it was a total nightmare to evaluate... a real pain in the ass is an understatement. sure it's easy to prove something up on the bench that looks infinitely better but you're gonna need a lot of things to go right to put a science project into commercial production... big companies are adverse to taking risks and right now these large cap behemoths are not about to sink billions of dollars building lithium ion gigafactories to proceeed and do a 180 midstream... way too high risk and too much at stake... lithium ion imho is here to stay for at least the next decade. Once you're over 300 mile range it's game on anyway! So I'm all for New and exciting technologies but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for something to leapfrog lithium ion anytime soon... as far as the majors and all these juniors promising to flood the market with new lithium supply I'll believe it when I see it... if we are to use orocobre as a posterboy, we are gonna have a severe shortage of lithium due to overpromises and underperformance big time... brine is not easy contrary to popular belief and it takes a looooooong time to ramp up to full scale... Elon and Tesla and the big boys are coming full steam ahead and my bet is this "bubble" still has room to run yet. #mbgtrends
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@Jayfire @MiningBookGuy great thoughts and thanks for clarifying kakula timeline... I only remember the initial response after the initial announcement in January as I stopped buying in the spring... We should reference these posts/topics for the next round of discussions with @TheNextBigRush
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@Jayfire And to be clear Birimian is NOT in the same league as Ivanhoe and Kamoa/Kakula... lol that would be pretty insulting comparison to make... only meant to say market response can be a crapshoot in the short term and re-ratings often can happen when we least expect them to.
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@Jayfire One final point on lithium ion and new technology... as an investor my bigger fear would be new tech coming along that makes lepidolite/mica commercially viable and economical... then the industry would really have a glut of oversupply on its hands!
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@Jayfire @BreakingBad01 i like that 1-2 copper $IVN $CDB punch quite a bit! :)
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@Jayfire With Ivanhoe Mines I'm in this story primarily for copper and Kamoa/Kakula... but thanks to the rebound in zinc, Kipushi is now easily #2 and it may turn out to be a darn good project in its own right... both are billion dollar plus NPV and 30% plus IRR in an ascending base metals price environment... supply/demand outlook look to be very good as well for both copper and zinc. when it comes to the third asset, Platreef I'm with @MiningBookGuy here and don't honestly see much appeal with it at all, being primarily focused on platinum group metals in South Africa... yes it's undoubtedly a "world class tier 1 asset" in the PGM space but how anyone can be supremely bullish on PGMs at this time is beyond me... Really, where is the demand going to come from? Catalytic converters? Fuel cells? Seriously? I have a hard time believing the future doesn't belong to 100% electric vehicles... So even though I'm a shareholder of Ivanhoe and believe it's one of the best stocks worth owning in mining, I'm not that much of a homer where I'll just drink all the kool aid that's being served up... nothing wrong with being critical and objective with the stocks we own... I'm here for copper and zinc... PGMs not so much.
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@soulMiner Hi, interesting reading, esp on lithium ion, copper and electric vehicles from @Jayfire. Am new to forum thanks to viewing @MiningBookGuy's YouTube. Thanks! Interested if @Jayfire has any thoughts on the Graphite space? There is apparently way more Graphite in an EV battery than lithium. I just took a small bite out of Alabama Graphite recently. Seems to have a nice location and is the only company in US in the space. A good recent review can be found on Edison research investment, http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/search/Alabama%20Graphite.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @jayfire agree I've had same reservations with PGM space for a while, I've traded platinum group metals, but cannot bring myself to buy a long term position, because I just cannot buy into the PGM potential. South african rand and rouble have weakened to an extent that the projects although arguably especially in south africa earning less then their all in cost of capital, they can still survive, as people are willing to finance them to cover any small shortfalls. We need to really see businesses like perhaps a lonmin go under, and proper supply destruction for PGM's to turn around. There is a lot of recycling in the industry, and a lot is being held (leading to some supply destruction), however if prices go a little higher, all that will make its way back into the market, stopping prices from rallying to fast. Then we have the points that you mentioned, however something to remember, electric vehicles will be a western phenomena including china. Most chinese vehicles will continue be oil driven but with catalytic converters fitted in, currently they have too little PTM's. India is the same. Most population growth will come from poorer countries, and they will not be buying into electric vehicles thats for sure.
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@Jayfire @soulMiner welcome to the board! In regards to graphite it's a very opaque market and I won't pretend for a second to understand it at all. I just know that natural flake competes with synthetic (which is derived from petroleum coke) and synthetic is currently "preferred" and used by Tesla... since China also Mines so much graphite domestically, they have less of a need to look offshores for supply... if I've learned anything with industrial metals you ultimately want to be positioned in the metals that china needs but can't really source themselves (e.g lithium, cobalt). In a supply crunch it's these same Chinese buyers who will overpay and cause a short term "boom" or spike like lithium last year and to an extent cobalt this year. Yes, graphite is More heavily used in lithium ion batteries than lithium but until some junior out there (not Syrah) can secure a legit binding offtake with a major battery/Chem company the junior shares will continue to trade at a discount... graphite sector is in a state of "show me" right now I believe before buyers will line up and start chasing... I think another mini graphite boom will occur probably, but I'm less optimistic that it will a more sustained run as what I would expect to see from: copper, cobalt, lithium, etc. just my own thoughts and I kinda hope im totally wrong here and graphite/graphene boom.
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@Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis yeah no doubt PGMs are trading at a discount now especially with platinum Relative to gold based on historic norms... nevertheless, I feel That even if PGMs are currently operating in deep value territory, unless there's a huge catalyst for future demand and growth, there's little appeal in loading up on these shares... in a way, I look at PGMs like I do uranium... uranium looked completely oversold and due for a bounce in December but even at such low depths, I still never could muster up the conviction to back the truck up... for most retail investors, capital is limited and we can't own everything... too bad... when push comes to shove I'm much more inclined to bet big on metals like: gold, silver, copper, lithium and cobalt... with EV metals future growth is almost assured at this point and we are dealing with an unstoppable force barreling down the track... A new paradigm shift, revolution, or whatever you want to call it... my crystal ball when it comes to PGMs and uranium is just way more uncertain and cloudy... yes, the underlying commodity and shares are dirt cheap, but what's the catalyst for future growth? Where is the double digit CAGR? Maybe it's there but definitely not obvious to me so I'm on the sidelines, outside of secondary investments made through companies such as Ivanhoe Mines, which I'm in for copper/zinc, not PGMs.
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@Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis nice recovery for $BGS.ax today! Hopefully clear skies after all the noise is resolved one way or another after next week!
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@Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis $AVK is one of my favorite gold stocks atm too. Looks to be great value for the reasons you cited above. This is certainly an under the radar stock... for now.
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@Jayfire No dobt PGMs are trading at a discount now especially with platinum Relative to gold based on historic norms... nevertheless, I feel That even if PGMs are currently operating in deep value territory, unless there's a huge catalyst for future demand and growth, there's little appeal in loading up on these shares... in a way, I look at PGMs like I do uranium... uranium looked completely oversold and due for a bounce in December but even at such low depths, I still never could muster up the conviction to back the truck up... for most retail investors, capital is limited and we can't own everything... too bad... when push comes to shove I'm much more inclined to bet big on metals like: gold, silver, copper, lithium and cobalt... with EV metals future growth is almost assured at this point and we are dealing with an unstoppable force barreling down the track... A new paradigm shift, revolution, or whatever you want to call it... my crystal ball when it comes to PGMs and uranium is just way more uncertain and cloudy... yes, the underlying commodity and shares are dirt cheap, but what's the catalyst for future growth? Where is the double digit CAGR? Maybe it's there but definitely not obvious to me so I'm on the sidelines, outside of secondary investments made through companies such as Ivanhoe Mines, which I'm in for copper/zinc, not PGMs.
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@Jayfire @soulMiner welcome to the board! In regards to graphite it's a very opaque market and I won't pretend for a second to understand it at all. I just know that natural flake competes with synthetic (which is derived from petroleum coke) and synthetic is currently "preferred" and used by Tesla... since China also Mines so much graphite domestically, they have less of a need to look offshores for supply... if I've learned anything with industrial metals you ultimately want to be positioned in the metals that china needs but can't really source themselves (e.g lithium, cobalt). In a supply crunch it's these same Chinese buyers who will overpay and cause a short term "boom" or spike like lithium last year and to an extent cobalt this year. Yes, graphite is More heavily used in lithium ion batteries than lithium but until some junior out there (not Syrah) can secure a legit binding offtake with a major battery/Chem company the junior shares will continue to trade at a discount... graphite sector is in a state of "show me" right now I believe before buyers will line up and start chasing... I think another mini graphite boom will occur probably, but I'm less optimistic that it will a more sustained run as what I would expect to see from: copper, cobalt, lithium, etc. just my own thoughts and I kinda hope im totally wrong here and graphite/graphene boom.
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@bullmarketmove Just to let everyone know, i've just published another interview, this time it's with the Amanada Van Dyke from Peterhouse Asset Management, We talked about the #Uranium market, what it takes to become a successful investor, and what to look for in a resource company. Enjoy! @bullmarketmove/the-next-bull-market-move-interview-amanda-van-dyke-at-peterhouse-asset-management #articles @Alan @MiningBookGuy @Jayfire @fundamentalAnalysis #TheNextBullMarketMove
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@Jayfire How to approach Tier one assets *NEW SEGMENT* with @MiningBookGuy and @TheNextBigRush https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJhWKKPJA5A+
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@Jayfire Nexgen, Ivanhoe and Buyouts Another *NEW SEGMENT* @TheNextBigRush is on a roll! Also featuring @MiningBookGuy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wps-RQzNsEo+
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@Jayfire Board Changes and General Meeting Cancellation Birimian Limited (ASX:BGS) (Company) advises that Mr Winton Willesee and Mr Hugh Bresser have retired from the board and Mr Michael Langford and Mr James McKay have been appointed as directors of the Comp http://www.birimiangold.com/pdfs/BoardChangesAndGeneralMeetingCancellation22Mar17.pdf #mbgtrends #lithium
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Jayfire Beat you to it, I see the youtube video updates as a suscriber so end up watching literally an hour after its uploaded :p
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@Jayfire Was Ivanhoe a no brainer stock investment? @MiningBookGuy and @TheNextBigRush $IVN https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxyRj_nwU4o+
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@Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis haha, that's awesome! Fabi's been getting lots of new subscribers as of late! @TheNextBigRush is on FIRE! :)
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@Jayfire I misspoke, the $1.36 placement was for 9.9% stake in $IVN, and $412 million was for just 49.5% of Kamoa project alone... #mybad
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@DJS @Jayfire I will definitely watch this when I have the time later tonight or tomorrow, but even without having watched it yet I can assure you that it was when I first bought it at $1.16 back in July. And people can call this pumping if they want, but after yesterday's 3.8 km step out hole I would say that it is once again back in "no brainer" status. DYODD. $IVN
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@Jayfire @DJS This story $IVN keeps getting better and better... It's definitely evolved into one of those "just set it and forget it" stocks that should/will do well in any commodities type of environment... The assets are just that darn good... I bought back in recently and am trying not to overthink things like I usually do to my own detriment. Just buy and hold. #SoSimple
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@FundamentalAnalysis @jayfire Yup $IVN was definitely a no brainer stock back then, I remember thinking this is trading for cash in the bank, assets for free. With hindsight one wonders why didn't I just put more in at the start!!!! I even remember sending my portfolio to rick rule for evaluation back in January 16, and he put Ivanhoe as his top pick pick. All stars were aligned back then.....
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@FundamentalAnalysis We are heading to silly valuations once again if it gets to 0.26 I'm adding........ @Jayfire, I do think $BGS.ax should quickly proceed with permits etc to continue adding value quickly, we don't want to many new deposits being discovered and beating us to the race. If you could get lithium elsewhere why turn to Mali, so I believe companies like $BGS.ax are racing against time as well.
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@MiningBookGuy @Phoenix - this is NOT a full list. but i think these are good examples to start with. I will emphasize that spending time at CEO.CA should be MORE of a priority than newsletters (assuming you have the time). Thanks @chatyak for implying #mbgtrends a good specific channel, and I will always recommend @TheNextBigRush and @JayFire and @BullMarketMove, which aren't the same type of 'newsletters', but just really good content as well (*EDIT - i guess you can sign up for alerts with all the below, so think of it as an extension of the newsletter list :) )! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8FndsMLWAE6gb1k-NlxU6A http://www.fifighter.com/ http://thenextbullmarketmove.tumblr.com
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@Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis @traderyin Yeah, it's a race to the finish line for these juniors... This prime window to maximize gains won't be open indefinitely... $BGS.AX is moving in the right direction and now they have the right people in place to deal with and negotiate binding offtakes with the Chinese... With the PFS due in June quarter, I would imagine that permits, EIA, etc. will be or already are underway... Production by end of 2018 I'm hoping is still achievable and that should be just around the onset of the this clean energy/EV boom just starting to finally ramp up for the masses... We've still got time but urgency with these things is always good/appreciated!
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@Jayfire @T Getting smashed along with most other lithium juniors, but brighter days ahead... Lots of catalysts for re-rating starting next quarter... hopefully timelines don't slip any more.
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@T agree @Jayfire, holding tight to what i have. was hoping news would be on schedule but knew there was a good chance of delay.
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@bullmarketmove Just to let everyone know, i've just published a new interview with Collin Kettell from Palisade Global.We talked about the bull market in #Uranium, PDAC 2017, and who he listens to as an investor. Enjoy! @bullmarketmove/the-next-bull-market-move-interview-collin-kettell-ceo-partner-palisade-global-investments-ltd @Excelsior @MiningBookGuy thank you for the nice words about my blog the other day. @jayfire @Alan @FundamentalAnalysis @tommy #NextBigTrade #TheNextBullMarketMove #RickRule #JustinSmyth
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Jayfire Excellent recent post on your blog. I think this sums for the most part a well balanced outlook on achieving financial freedom and to some extent life itself. As @jayfire says "Do what makes you happy! One day many years from now, imagine yourself sitting inside a movie theater and you are forced to watch a replay reel of your entire life. Make sure this will be a film you’ll be excited to relive and experience all over again"... #newbies
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Jayfire Excellent recent post on your blog. I think this sums for the most part a well balanced outlook on achieving financial freedom and to some extent life itself. As @jayfire says "Do what makes you happy! One day many years from now, imagine yourself sitting inside a movie theater and you are forced to watch a replay reel of your entire life. Make sure this will be a film you’ll be excited to relive and experience all over again"... #newbies
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@TheLip2 $FSM $FVI Not really bouncing back with the price of silver. Anyone have any thoughts on this? I think @jayfire holds this - any thoughts Jay? I bought on the first big dip and am wondering if it is time to move on to another silver holding. #newbie
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@FundamentalAnalysis @TheLip2 I'm aware of $FVI, last I checked a few months back it didn't really appear to be much of a silver company anymore. It will be substantially exposed to gold given the new developement linda something...can't recall name.... hence I didn't consider it when I was looking for silver exposure. I think the gold portion will be contributing more of the revenue going forwards but @jayfire can confirm #newbie
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@MiningBookGuy @zartceps @FundamentalAnalysis - yes, i did think about a #podcast. but not something i think i want do on my own... with that said, i really enjoy the skype sessions with @TheNextBigRush and @JayFire on #TheNextBigRush youtube channel! This is pretty close to a podcast. I would always be up for stuff like this with Fabi and Jay (if this ever turns into a 'real' podcast), or others that want to have similar conversations. The chatting/listening part is a lot of fun! :)
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@Jayfire @TheLip2 and @FundamentalAnalysis Yes, Lindero is the gold asset in Argentina, the next development stage project for the company and the one you could say that is morphing this company away from being a "primary" silver producer into a gold/silver hybrid... Up to now shares of $FVI have tracked silver and other silver stocks, but this might change in the future. I own a good sized position, as I like their management and silver asset in Mexico, low AISCs, liquidity, etc... However if I was looking for a more "pure" silver play I might stick to $FR $AG $AXR $AXU etc...
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@Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis Thanks glad you enjoyed that most recent post! There's more to life than just mining stocks... but if mining stocks do well, life will be greeeaaaaaatttttttttt for many of us who are deeply entrenched in this trade :)
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@Excelsior @Jayfire - The most "pure" #Silver play is $IPT $ISVLF Impact Silver: https://image.slidesharecdn.com/20161122iptpptgg1forwebsiteandtour-161214203722/95/corporate-presentation-23-1024.jpg?cb=1481747968 89% of their revenues come from #Silver, 3% #Gold, 5% #Lead, 3% #Zinc $AG $FR First Majestic is a little over 70% in #Silver. 18% #Gold, 10% #Lead, 2% #Zinc
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@Jayfire @Excelsior Thanks for adding that point on "pure" silver producers. Yup, I added $IPT $ISVLF to my watchlist thanks to you as you were the first person to bring this name to my attention last year. I own shares of $FVI $FSM through a US only (non OTC) account, which made me think of some of the more popular NYSE listed name. But definitely if investors want a more pure silver play, $IPT $ISVLF is another name to be aware of and add to the list, in addition to $AG $FR and $AXR $AXU as I mentioned.
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@Excelsior @Jayfire - Yes, I've made good money trading $FSM $FVI in the past as well as $AG $FR, but $IPT $ISVLF out-performed them both last year in the 2016 run to their insane leverage to the #Silver price. Unfortunately I can't cue this chart up to Jan 19th, 2016 when the miners started their rally, as the example was more extreme (at one point Impact was as 10-bagger coming out of it's low to peak). This 1 year #Chart starting last year from late March to present paints the picture well enough. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?IPT.V,FR.TO,FVI.TO&p=5&O=011000 * Here is a #chart for $IPT by itself though that starts in November 2015 and shows the leverage to the upside it had when the metals got going. When #Silver approaches $20 this stock gets rather peppy. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&st=2015-11-02&en=2017-03-27&&id=p49682477202 I love $AXR $AXU as well and can't wait for them to drill off Bermingham and some of the other targets this year and get that mine producing again from the new deposits they keep finding. Cheers!
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@MiningBookGuy Jurisdiction Risk in Mining Stocks - Ivanhoe Fruta Del Norte Nexgen DRC Rick Rule https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8MjRnbFvbo+ More #Tier1 talk with @Jayfire & @TheNextBigRush. #mbgtrends
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