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@MartinTurenne #2 on Scotia's top 5 mining themes for 2017: "Zinc is Going to Party Like It’s 2006! The long awaited bullish fundamental thesis on Zn (tight concentrate supply on recent mine closures + lack of mine builds) finally started to materialize in 2H 2016 and we think it continues into '17. Positive indicators such as spot Zn TC/RCs below $50/t level and slowly but surely declining visible inventories only galvanize this thesis. We think the positive move in Zn in late 2016 could be just the tip of the iceberg akin to the move we saw from 2005 to 2007."
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from ~zinc,
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@MartinTurenne #nickel http://www.miningweekly.com/article/philippines-cancels-environmental-permits-of-three-mines-minister-2016-12-15 "The Philippines has cancelled the environmental permits of three nickel mines and warned that three more producers were at risk of losing theirs. This comes on the heels of a separate environmental audit of the country's 41 mines completed in August, full results of which will be released in January."
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne Scotia today: "Zinc moved higher yesterday on talk that the Chinese environmental monitoring authority have been investigating a range of zinc producers in major productions areas of Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong and Shanghai. The investigation covers zinc casters, smelters & refineries, extrusion factories and downstream producers in general and any of them that have not met required standards have been either suspended or restricted."
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from ~zinc,
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@MartinTurenne $aqa Aquila gets two permits for Michigan Back Forty gold-zinc-silver project http://fox11online.com/news/local/northwoods/back-forty-mine-in-up-approved-by-the-state
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne KGHM should not sell its foreign assets, Polish minister Henryk Kowalczyk said on Tuesday. KGHM has put its oversees assets under review and said it would decide what to do with them by the end of the first quarter of 2017. KGHM's key foreign asset is Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile. http://www.reuters.com/article/kghm-poland-idUSW8N1CQ02Q
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from ~mining syndicate,
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@MartinTurenne noticed that 3 sell-side mining analysts have departed Haywood in recent weeks: Tara Hassan to RJ, Stefan Ioannou to Cormark, Benjamin Asuncion to $brz http://www.theglobeandmail.com/newsletters/streetwise-and-rob-insight-newsletter/raymond-james-eyes-mining-sector-with-research-hires/article33478313/ #research #analysts
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@MartinTurenne Glencore - will they or won't they re-start idled zinc capacity in 2017? WSJ article: http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/glencores-command-of-the-zinc-trade/
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from ~zinc,
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@MartinTurenne From Scotia today: "Tongling Nonferrous has announced that its 100ktpa Anhui Tongguan smelter in China will see a reduction in zinc production in January due to limited concentrate supply. Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., China’s largest refined zinc producer, plans to cut output next month, potentially heralding lower supplies of zinc. Output will be reduced by about 5,000 MT in January and the plan for February will be adjusted based on market conditions. China’s Chihong Zn&Ge has decided to shut two zinc smelters, each with an annual capacity of less than 30,000 MT, attributing the shutdowns to the low capacities and high costs of the two small smelters. Zinc Smelters will find it tough to turn a profit this year given where TCs are (< $50/t down from over $200/t in 2015)."
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from ~zinc,
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@MartinTurenne First Point Minerals Announces $320,000 Financing and Initiates Optimization Program on Decar Nickel Project @marketwired/first-point-minerals-announces-320000-financing-and $FPX
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from #index,
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@tommy Refamiliarizing $FPX http://www.firstpointminerals.com/i/pdf/FPX_CP.pdf @MartinTurenne Martin what would it take to really light a fire under First Point?
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne First important to state upfront that we're playing the long game @tommy so this one's not for everyone.
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne #Nickel still a challenged metal, fundamentals are generally quite positive, but it will lag the #zinc story, which obv has way more sex appeal right now.
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@MartinTurenne Just to give a sense of how bad things are in nickel right now, if you look at the updated cost curve, > 50% of production is loss-making on operating costs right now (never mind capital payback). So today's price is unsustainably low
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@MartinTurenne But as #nickel continues to firm up, folks will realize there's a dearth of advanced stage assets out there.
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@MartinTurenne And with $FPX we've got an asset (Decar, located in central BC) that's got a minimum 25-year mine life, with production potential that would make it one of the top-15 producers in the world by annual output, with on-site operating costs in the bottom quartile (per the PEA completed by our former project partners Cliffs Natural Resources)
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne So the investment thesis on $FPX for now is based on positioning to capitalize on that
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne No good company comps out there for $FPX @tommy. there's only 6-7 #nickel focused companies on the venture left, and they're virtually all pre-resource.
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from #index,
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@tommy Thanks @MartinTurenne. Is there an exploration story as well?
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne $FPX peak intraday was $1.10, market cap about $90 million back in the heady days of 2011
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne lots of exploration upside at Decar @tommy, good likelihood opportunities to increase both grades and tonnes. but the existing resource is a monster, supports a 25+ year mine life. $FPX
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne thanks for your questions @tommy
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne we can actually get quite a bit done on project optimization with the $320K raise @tommy $fpx
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne and preserving capital structure is very important to me
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne thus no warrants in the financing.
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne nor in the 5-cent financing we did last year
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne i do wonder how much longer companies will continue to be so loose with warrants. that was a big factor in the H2 downturn in our space last year, IMO
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne "The latest statistics published by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) indicates that global refined zinc market was in deficit of 263,000 tons during the initial eleven-month period of 2016. The total reported zinc inventories declined by 72,000 tons during this period. Overall, the zinc mine output declined by 1.2% during the initial eleven-month period in 2016 when compared with the corresponding period last year. This is despite sharp increase in mine output by China." https://news.metal.com/newscontent/100720195/refined-zinc-metal-demand-increased-modestly-during-jan-nov-2016
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from ~zinc,
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@MartinTurenne Scotia today " Interesting to note that canceled warrants for LME #lead has skyrocketed (up 94% overnight to 66kt and represents 34% of Total LME inventories). Lead now at $1.06/Ib is up 16% YTD in 2017 making it the best performer. Market participants are saying there is a trading house that has been securing a big position in lead."
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from ~zinc,
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@MartinTurenne shameless self-promotion alert: http://jayantbhandari.com/latest-musings/ contrary to Jayant, our current financing has not yet closed. $FPX
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from #index,
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@tommy @MartinTurenne The shame! That is a nice endorsement
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from #index,
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@tommy I put my toe in First Point $FPX yesterday. Was a couple pints deep at the haywood Roundup party and jon jones excused himself to finalize a small share only 10c financing. Having read @Jayant's post yesterday and liking @martinturenne's low frills approach I put my hand up for a small order. The alcohol and joyous spirit of the haywood party for sure contributed! But I'm happy to have it as a speculation on nickel for the medium term. Plan to punt without notice when that space picks up. This is not investment advice.
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from @martinturrenne,
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@MartinTurenne "Philippine minister says some mines need to be shut on eve of audit results -- The Southeast Asian nation, the world's biggest nickel ore supplier, last year suspended operations at a group of 10 of its 41 mines for environmental infractions. Manila said in September that 20 more mines were at risk of suspension." http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-mining-idUSKBN15G399 #nickel
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne adding $AQA to the #zinc list. this one currently deeply undervalued IMO but i'm biased
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@PamplonaTrader @MartinTurenne $AQA and $FOM #zinc less than 3%
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@MartinTurenne @pamplonaTrader agreed $AQA Zn grades aren't eyepopping but Zn metal accounts for 40% of revenue in their PEA model. remainder of revenue is gold (40%) with some copper and silver
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from #index,
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@PamplonaTrader Thanks for pointing that out @MartinTurenne. $AQA a solid value but in my view as much a #gold play as a #zinc play.
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@MartinTurenne @excelsior don't forget $S. their JV ops produce about 7000 tonnes/annum on a 100% basis. one of the few ways to play cobalt via a producing company. https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/737-tsx/s/28836-sherritt-announces-2016-production-results-and-2017-guidance.html
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from ~roughingit,
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@Excelsior @MartinTurenne - thanks Good point. I was thinking of $S as #Nickel and forgot about all the cobalt. I guess they do occur together so I'll need to review the other Nickel companies as well. There are also some #PGM companies with Nickel and Cobalt that may offer more exposure. More homework. Good stuff! (and $S is added to the #Cobalt list)
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from ~roughingit,
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@PamplonaTrader @Excelsior @MartinTurenne I've always been told to avoid the laterites. $S $CLQ.AX
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from #cobalt,
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@MartinTurenne @PamplonaTrader laterites a huge challenge for sure, crazy CAPEX, etc. but $S have been good operators. as for their balance sheet, well...
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from #cobalt,
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@Excelsior @PamplonaTrader - Thanks for information on the #Nickel laterites with $S and $CLQ.AX. That is new information for me, so I'll have to keep that in mind and do more studying, but I see that @MartinTurenne was in agreement as well. Much appreciated.
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from #cobalt,
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@MartinTurenne Morgan Stanley on #nickel news out of the Philippines today: "Yet another mining industry audit report from the Philippines: This one recommends the suspension/closure of 160ktpa nickel, 8% global mine supply... We are nickel bulls for 2017, forecasting a 21% YoY lift to US$11,660/t. This is based not only on the widely expected net-constraint on SE Asian production (global supply down 1.2% YoY to 1.95Mt), but also on a robust China-centric lift in global demand growth (+3.9% YoY to 2.05Mt)."
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@anomalloy @MartinTurenne Morgan Stanley on #nickel news out of the Philippines today: "Yet another mining industry audit report from the Philippines: This one recommends the suspension/closure of 160ktpa nickel, 8% global mine supply... We are nickel bulls for 2017, forecasting a 21% YoY lift to US$11,660/t. This is based not only on the widely expected net-constraint on SE Asian production (global supply down 1.2% YoY to 1.95Mt), but also on a robust China-centric lift in global demand growth (+3.9% YoY to 2.05Mt)."
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from #hotpick,
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@anomalloy @MartinTurenne $RNX up over 20% and climbing on the on the news
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from #nickel,
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@MartinTurenne Andy Home, an absolute beast on the state the lead market http://www.reuters.com/article/us-lead-market-ahome-idUSKBN15H26G
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from ~zinc,
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@MartinTurenne Europe’s largest #zinc producer Nyrstar is considering restarting its idled and for sale British Columbia Myra Falls zinc-copper mine in light of improved market conditions, its CEO Hilmar Rode said in a call to analysts on Feb 9. Myra Falls in Canada is deemed a "high cost" operation by the company, and it was suspended in April 2015. https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3660597/base-metals/Nyrstar-mulls-Myra-Falls-zinc-mine-restart-on-favourable-conditions.html
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from ~zinc,
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@MartinTurenne surprised there's not more discussion here of Adventus Zinc $adzn newly IPOd, up 90% from IPO price. core backing from Altius, RCF, Greenstone and Haywood. #zinc
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from #index,
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@ChestRockwell waiting on @Brandon's new Zn deal @MartinTurenne - could be a pip.
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from #index,
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@MartinTurenne @chestRockwell yes looking forward to good things from @brandon
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@LucTenHave @MartinTurenne What do you think is the main reason of the $41 million market cap? Only the people backing it..is that why its valued at 41 million?
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from #adzn,