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@MartinTurenne From a Scotia note on $AZ today: "We were surprised such a strong PEA was largely ignored by the market – BUT THE METALS SPACE HASN'T SEE NEW INVESTMENT INFLOWS OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS IN OUR VIEW – when the metals complex catches a bid we think AZ will be on the radar screen once again." (emphasis added by me) ALLCAPS statement strikes a chord here; for all the talk of generalist interest picking up over the last year, we're really nowhere close to a full rotation back into metals.
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@ocotilloredux @MartinTurenne I will await the issue of the NI 43-101. There is no mention in the press release of who did the PEA and who did the capital cost estimation. In-house job? Since they are going straight to feasibility according to the schedule, who is the EPCM handling this? I am confused how you can build a 10,000 tpd mill for less than others require to build one half the size, so I need a look at the details here, but like Scotia I am also surprised with the magnitude of the sell off.
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@MartinTurenne "Market nervous on #zinc bull story as shortages fail to emerge -- Expected shortages of zinc, a metal often favoured by speculators, may not materialise this year because recent price gains have spurred miners around the world to increase output." http://www.reuters.com/article/metals-zinc-bulls-idUSL5N1HB2T3 Not my view, don't shoot the messenger, etc.
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@Highheat @MartinTurenne Any thoughts on Ni going forward?
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@MartinTurenne @highheat consensus is that #nickel supply/demand fundamentals should be supportive of price (i.e. market deficit in 2016, and projected deficits for the rest of the decade and beyond). but in the short-term uncertainty over Indonesian and Philippines supply weighs on the price. Fundamentals summarized on page 3 of $FPX presentation http://www.firstpointminerals.com/i/pdf/First-Point-Minerals-Corp-Mar-2017.pdf
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@Highheat Thanks @martinTurenne
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@ocotilloredux @MartinTurenne I think it means Glencore will keep the Aussie assets off line for longer than the market is anticipating. If I were him I would dial McArthur River Zinc back even further and totally scrap the Peru operation.
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@MartinTurenne "Rio Tinto ponders future in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine -- 'There is no doubt that Grasberg is a world-class resource. However, there's a difference between a world-class resource and a world-class business,' Rio Tinto CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques said on Wednesday." http://www.reuters.com/article/rio-tinto-agm-grasberg-idUSL3N1HK45L Amen
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@MartinTurenne Reuters: "Stronger #zinc prices prompt mines to boost output" http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/stronger-zinc-prices-prompt-mines-to-boost-output/articleshow/58128540.cms Provides background on which producers are increasing ouptut
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@MartinTurenne Scotia out this morning still bullish: "Channel checks with market participants are still very constructive on the industrial metal...We think buying this current dip in #Zinc is a good strategy."
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@ocotilloredux I am still mulling over @MartinTurenne how to play last weeks supply consensus which is essentially nothing more than I put forth here in the modules. They missed one or two. Toho is cranking up Endeavour again for instance. But the key point is missed. These are assets that must be replaced to keep the show going.
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@MartinTurenne Patricia Mohr retired from Scotia in 2016 or 2015, if I recall correctly
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@MartinTurenne Jayant Bhandari with a new write-up on some juniors; scroll down for his take on companies including $FPX and $AU http://jayantbhandari.com/latest-musings/indiagettingworse/ #nickel
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@Sarb Thanks for the link @MartinTurenne. $FPX Tenbagger ? This may not be a #hotpick today, but rather a buy and hold stock for longer term. Hope Nickel prices improve from this point.
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@MartinTurenne http://www.kereport.com/wp-content/uploads/0415-1-3.mp3 After the 7:30 mark Jayant Bhandari gives his thoughts on $IRV $NVO and $FPX
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@MartinTurenne I've been a skeptic on batteries as a significant driver of #nickel demand, but this article from Roskill and recent pronouncements by Glencore suggest battery demand could go from current 80ktpa (or approx. 4% of current annual global nickel demand) to 400kpta by 2025 (or approx. 20% of global annual demand). "In Roskill’s view, this potential upside for nickel is not yet priced into the market." https://roskill.com/news/nickel-market-beware-batteries-can-no-longer-ignored/ $fpx
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@MartinTurenne Reuters: "Glencore has tapped the Bank of Nova Scotia to offload a portfolio of royalty assets across the world. The package includes the royalty on the Antamina copper-zinc mine in Peru, which could fetch up to US$250 million, and royalties from various smaller mines and exploration assets" http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-glencore-royalties-idUKKBN17Z1ZL
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@MartinTurenne Reuters: "Belgian #zinc producer Nyrstar said it was committed to pulling out of mining and added it would make small investments to improve its remaining mines in North America and make them more attractive to a potential buyer." http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nyrstar-results-idUSKBN1800IJ
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@Vaughan In all seriousness, i am very thankful to have had the opportunity to put faces to names and meet the people. @JamesKwantes @ocotilloredux, @cole119, @richardhuang @theGalvanizer, @evenprime, @martinturenne, @cooperquinn @Hra-coffin, @theDailyGold @resourcemaven. And most of all @murat and @Tommy.
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@MartinTurenne "Nyrstar has approved the restart of its Myra Falls #zinc and copper mine in Canada. Myra Falls has been on care and maintenance since 2015." http://www.campbellrivermirror.com/news/nyrstar-conditionally-approves-restart-of-myra-falls-mining-operations/
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@MartinTurenne Recently JDS Energy and Mining completed long-term mine development planning and production scheduling for Myra Falls. http://www.jdsmining.ca/projects/myra-falls-mine/
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@ocotilloredux @MartinTurenne I think if you read that story correctly, they will be merely dressing the place up for a sale. I don't see a mill restart, I see underground exploration to put resources into a reserve column. Nyrstar obviously does not want to get hit with the reclamation bill associated with 40 years of mining in a Provincial Park. But if BC has their act together, anyone buying the asset must post a reclamation bond first, which is one reason it has likely gone untouched to date. Who ever buys it would make a good stock to short. ;)
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@JamesKwantes A few flashbacks on a slow Sunday ... here's @BenjaminCox @Brandon & @MartinTurenne at a meat meetup in Vancouver in fall 2015 (as I recall, Brandon won the eating contest) http://cdn.ceo.ca/1chhgu9-20151124_182537.jpg+
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@MartinTurenne From TD today: "Last week’s LME Asia week offered a relatively upbeat assessment of the prospects for base metals over the next 12-months. The focus was on mine supply issues, forecast deficits, and the hopes that China’s growth slowdown would be countered by the much trumpeted “belt and road” initiative. This pan-regional programme aims to develop infrastructure across 60 countries with the aim of boosting growth based on sorely needed infrastructure investment spending." #copper #nickel #zinc
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@MartinTurenne "Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged $124 billion on Sunday for his new Silk Road which aims to bolster China's global leadership ambitions by expanding links between Asia, Africa, Europe and beyond." http://fortune.com/2017/05/15/china-xi-jinping-belt-road-summit-protectionism/
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@MartinTurenne Nyrstar’s 50ktpa Middle Tennessee mine in the US is on track to recommence production in the June Quarter of 2017. Nyrstar put the mine on care and maintenance in December 2015. https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/04/978277/0/en/Nyrstar-First-Quarter-2017-Interim-Management-Statement.html
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@MartinTurenne Reuters' stalwart Andy Home on #zinc, with many choice observations http://www.reuters.com/article/us-zinc-concentrates-ahome-idUSKCN18B29R
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@ocotilloredux Thanks @MartinTurenne The elimination of escalators and de-escalators is the best news zinc miners have had in a generation. It finally puts the miners and smelters on the same team. Both must profit from the consumer and not by stealing margin from each other.
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@ocotilloredux Thanks @MartinTurenne The elimination of escalators and de-escalators is the best news zinc miners have had in a generation. It finally puts the miners and smelters on the same team. Both must profit from the consumer and not by stealing margin from each other.
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@ocotilloredux @MartinTurenne Re: Middle Tennessee mine. I don't think Nyrstar had much choice here. The Clarksville smelter can only accept very clean low iron concentrate which is virtually non-existent these days outside of Tennessee. At one time it was all part of the Pasminco strategy with relatively clean Century concentrates desirable around the world but we know they are now long gone. Play hard ball @brandon . Be like Pierre Elliot Trudeau. Why should I build my zinc mine? Your pockets are probably full of piss by now with all those smelter marketing guys leaning over you to get your ear. "Sure, we'll write you a letter of intent." Get them to write in that they pay transport costs from site.
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@MartinTurenne Vale to shutter Birchtree #nickel mine in Manitoba http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN18C2GA-OCATP 200 to lose their jobs. Too bad Vale isn't shutting Goro instead, but closure costs there are fearsome
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@MartinTurenne Scotia: Cancelled warrants spike by 26.9kt in New Orleans this morning, which places “available #zinc metal” (reported inventory less cancelled warrants) at 170kt, its lowest point since October 2008
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@TheGalvanizer I'll help out by melting down my pennies #secretzincstash Thanks for that @MartinTurenne
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@MartinTurenne Phil production will continue, but likely lower than in recent years. Phil 2017 YTD production is down 27% yoy (80kt annualized), due to mostly to rain. Indo ore shipments are likely to add 60-80kt new supply this year. So Indo and Phil changes likely cancel each other out for 2017. Market expected to be deficit between 60-80kt this year, consistent with 2016. Consensus is for similar or larger-sized deficits for the next several years. But stocks remain high. #nickel
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@MartinTurenne Fascinating report by UBS last week highlighting the impact of electric vehicle growth on demand for copper, aluminium and nickel. UBS predicts that in a future world where 100% of vehicles were electric, demand for copper would be +21%, with aluminium +13% and #nickel a whopping +118%. UBS predicting that by 2025, 13.7% of global car sales will be electric. Summary here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/19/electric-vehicles-cost-conventional-cars-2018/ Full report here: https://www.scribd.com/document/348864125/Margin-Report-UBS-Model-3-Bolt-EVV
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@MartinTurenne "China is likely to step up imports of refined #zinc from this month, industry sources said on Friday, as dwindling global supplies of concentrate hit local output of the metal. 'It is starting to bite,” said analyst Daniel Hynes of ANZ Bank. 'The tightness is pretty much upon us. We are looking for zinc to push back to $2,800/t in the second half. This certainly should provide a bit of a reality check for the bears.'" http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-likely-to-boost-refined-zinc-imports-as-concentrate-shortfall-bites/
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@MartinTurenne Jayant Bhandari discusses emerging markets and near the end of the segment, a couple of juniors $NVO and $FPX http://www.kereport.com/wp-content/uploads/2017_05_25-Jayant-Bhandari.mp3
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@MartinTurenne @Tommy Inco and Falconbridge two dearly departed Canadian companies. Would be great if Vale ever followed through on their long-rumored plans to spinout their #nickel business into a "New Inco" entity. http://business.financialpost.com/investing/brazils-vale-mulls-toronto-and-london-listings-for-some-base-metals-units-sources-say
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@MartinTurenne Would be somewhat akin to what BHP did with South32, which has been successful since launching in 2015 and has recently been leading the diversified and base metals companies in terms of early-stage investment with recent financings into $az and $tmq
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@MartinTurenne Interesting note from Citi last week forecasting material increases in AISC for gold miners in 2017 onward. Report focused on gold producers only, but findings likely applicable across most metals. 1/4
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@MartinTurenne Citi: "Weakening currencies and the benefit of the past four years’ austerity measures have driven down the costs during the past four years. But these benefits have been fading away lately and the costs have started to increase. For the quarter ended Mar-17...unit cash cost increased for the first time since 2015 and was up 4.6% on a y-o-y basis." 2/4
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@MartinTurenne Citi: "Depreciating operating currencies for the past 4 years was a major tailwind for majority of the companies. The past four years’ currency tailwind have now turned into a headwind; and could see a disproportionate increase in $-costs for companies operating in South Africa, South America and Australia." 3/4
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@MartinTurenne Citi: "The situation could be exacerbated by our expectations that the past 3-4 years’ austerity measures (high grading, capex cuts, exploration cuts) are about to unwind. Those will either unwind or production will fall, which in turn should drive unit costs sharply higher." 4/4
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@MartinTurenne FT: Shine Could be Returning to #Nickel "Nickel trades at about $4 per pound. At that price, 40% of world output loses money, according to RBC. And that comes before considering the added capital costs for mines and processing plants." https://www.ft.com/content/81697180-5670-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f $FPX
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@Sarb @MartinTurenne - When do we "roughly" expect drill news on $FPX Decar properties.
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@MartinTurenne @Sarb from our last NR: "The timing and scope of the proposed drilling program is subject to receipt of necessary permits." We don't expect any issues with permit, etc. but timing hasn't been nailed down yet $FPX
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@Sarb Sounds fair @MartinTurenne - Permits in that area are not that hard...so I do expect them sooner. Should I #loadup now ?? $FPX. Jayant Bhandari keep on writing about this as a 10 Baggar ... :) I guess our @Tommy also got some in the last PP....
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@MartinTurenne @Sarb I would just point to significant management buying over the last year in the market and via PPs (all done at or above our share price without warrants). Management now holds almost 20% of the company, with much of that accumulation happening in 2016/17 $FPX
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@Sarb Yea @MartinTurenne. I like $FPX as this is one clean shell. I like Decar properties. Let's drill $FPX asap...like ASAP #loadup
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