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@thenewjew @Goldfinger I just heard "Brexplainer" lol
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@thenewjew PG up 9%. Think there's still room to grow this week?
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@thenewjew The question remains: How to strategize for an event-based positional play between now (a week after news of Trump win) and Inauguration Day (January 20/17)? During that time the most significant expected geopolitical event is the Federal Reserve decision on interest rate hike on Dec 14 (roughly halfway between the present and inauguration); however at a close second for geopolitical is the Italian Referendum on constitutional reform on Dec 4/16. This is important because the current Italian PM has promised to resign if there is a 'NO' result. He is currently far down in the polls http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-referendum-polls-idUSKBN13A1BZ what is more, the 5 Star Movement (populist upstart party led by a literal former clown that has promised to exit Italy from the EU) has led in the polls over the summer, and stands to profit from the perpetual chaos that is Italian politics. Does the Fed use potential political turmoil as subterfuge to keep down rates that almost nobody wants to raise? Or if a rate indeed goes through, will this cause the long-awaited rush to precious metals? So far the Trump presidency (although officially not yet started) has had an unpredictable effect (could it have been any other way?); early 5% losses on index futures are wiped out as the Dow soars to new all-time records. And yet there seems something hollow about it. For one, could the gains in equities be explained by losses in the bond market? http://business.financialpost.com/investing/market-moves/bonds-and-emerging-markets-are-getting-hammered-today-as-trump-effect-intensifies?__lsa=dc88-f91a They say it's about oncoming inflation; or is this just a subtle indicator that the world is starting the realize that the US will never pay off its debt? After all during the primaries Trump threw out the idea of "renegotiating" the US national debt, as if it was some kind of Atlantic City casino. Can you imagine what similar remarks as a sitting president would do to the world economy, which is premised on the notion that the US Treasury Bond is the basic "zero-risk" investment? My two cents: Trump has been pretty quiet and well-behaved the last few days, but it won't be for long, and when he moves it will be fast and (hopefully) deliberate. This is still the honeymoon stage; it took Justin Trudeau about a year to get over his, and that was where his predecessor had a pretty nasty reputation. I think with Trump it will be far shorter, blunt, and brutal, contributing to and helping provoke the next financial crisis and subsequent retreat to precious metals that most of us I assume are at least hoping for. Meanwhile, this guy attributes gold's recent drop to India: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/india-not-trump-is-the-real-reason-behind-the-crash-in-gold-prices-2016-11-14 I am still kicking myself for not following through on my gut instinct that Trump would win and buying some put options for UMX (double exposure to Mexico index ETF... missed out around 25% in two days Doh!). What do you guys think? Any ideas for positional plays or short-term trades over the next 2 months? Sorry for the rant, long-term lurker first time poster
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@hihosilver @thenewjew great ideas, and yes I agree with most of your thoughts. looking forward to hearing more from you. welcome to CEO !
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@thenewjew @hihosilver Thanks!
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@Vaughan Good to see long term lurkers emerge from the shadows @thenewjew.
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@theolderjew @thenewjew I welcome you ברוך הבא
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@thenewjew Anyone else worried about Trump's sabre-rattling over NAFTA? http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/canada-is-naive-if-it-thinks-donald-trump-will-play-nice-on-nafta roughly 75% of Canada's exports go to the US; although we're their second largest trading partner (after EU) we account for maybe 15-20% of the US's exports. This means a lopsided relationship (Trudeau pere's ditty about sleeping with an elephant comes to mind) that would make for a highly unequal renegotiation with very little leverage on Canada's side. As the USA Freedom Kids sang, "deal from strength or get crushed every time". This is not to say that Trump is going to get his way without a fight. For one, his hands are tied legally. Although an American president can sign a treaty (such as NAFTA), it must be approved by 2/3 of the Senate http://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Treaties.htm This means that although the Republicans have a majority in the Senate, Trump would have to convince a significant number of Democratic senators to cross the floor to support whatever plan he comes up with - not to mention the potential for opposition from his own party, which opposed his bid from the very beginning. My concern: if Trump doesn't get his way, could he take rash, spiteful action that would have a negative impact on the Canadian economy? Add to it the spinelessness of our leadership (which has failed to use legal action to enforce Canadian rights and get damages using NAFTA, such as with softwood) and you have to wonder about how this is going to pan out.
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@IronMan07 @thenewjew if he gets the job, thats a big problem for MJ in the US...Recreational -or- Medicinal
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from #tny,
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@thenewjew @ayeyou @ylr @Joshgs I agree with @ayeyou looks like the easy money has already been made in $MGW I bought in at 0.11 way back when and sold most at 0.77. Bought back in at 0.70 hoping for a bump after the CA election which hasn't materialized. Thinking about selling at par on Moncay
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@Joshgs @thenewjew @mike @ayeyou @ylr @miningBookGuy. Thanks guys for the info. And I have done some research and am going to pull the trigger on one in a few weeks. Most I believe are way overvalued. I will post my pick when I pull the trigger. So far I'm only in $imh. #marijuana #weed $nsp looks alright also as Laguna blends is growing and they supply them
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@thenewjew Has anyone else here thought of making an option play into volatility indexes? If the $Trump election has buoyed the indexes to record highs heading into a particularly challenging series of events (Italian referendum, Fed rate hike, etc.) it might be an interesting play. I am currently researching $VIX, $VXX, VXZ, VIXY, VIXM
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@thenewjew In case anyone (shout out to @vaughan) is interested here are the 2 plays I ended up deciding on based on my research of volatility indexes, including (on the TSE:) $HVU, $HUV, $VIXC; (on the NYSE:) $VIX, $VXX, $XIXY, $TVIX :
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@thenewjew VIXC way down (14%) great time to load up calls @vaughn
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@thenewjew Today's play: VIXY 061617 40 C
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@Lee @thenewjew Regarding todays play... VIXY 061617 40C. Hmmmm. 197 days to expiration... Deep OTM... 0 Open Interest and 2 Volume... Bid .65 and Ask 1.75 Wide,Wide,Bid to Ask. How do you justify such a trade?
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@thenewjew $SLX 031717 48 C (Call on Steel ETF): Bid at 0.15, Ask at 1.05. My book cost is 0.45... with a little less than 2 months to go (and anticipation of Trump's infrastructure announcement, including pipelines with AMERICAN STEEL), I am hoping for 100-300% some time in February. Today's closing price - 42.74
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@thenewjew Looks like the French election isn't such a shoo-in for the Establishment:
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@thenewjew Keep in mind that under the French electoral system all that matters is making it to the one on one run-off. If Fillon is the 'Not Front National' candidate, with the stench of scandal and a more conservative, religious bent, then the usual French anti-FN coalition may fall apart a la Hillary (voter apathy + motivated, fed up base = Le Pen WIN)
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@thenewjew #hotpick $acg $acg $acg there's no other small cap weed play as deeply diversified as this: licensing deals in the works, 50% stake (and majority stake soon) in a company with MMP license pending, lots of news coming. Share price bottomed out at 0.09, up 25% so far this week and traded as high as 0.16 today, was trading at over 0.30 at tail end of last weed hype but could easily hit a dollar, at even a $30m market cap that's at or close to a ten bagger from here and things are going to get stupid once legalization announcement is made (next two weeks - before 4-20!)
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@thenewjew SWIM told me they used an earlier version of these instructions to order a pound of magic mushrooms over the internet. Legal fact: since there are serious constitutional issues--in addition to practical considerations--for searching mailed packages, the most reliable means of transportation for most controlled substances is good old Canada Post. SWIM also said that they forgot their password to the account with Alpha Bay that still has about 30 Bitcoin, now worth about 300% of what they were at the time. Fuck what was that password. #index #Bitcoin #deepnetmarket #alphabay https://www.reddit.com/r/AlphaBayMarket/comments/5z3ulk/comprehensive_alphabay_foolproof_guide/
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@thenewjew @miningBookGuy @goldfinger If Japan is not the spark it will be the kindling. #groundzerocrisis Remember that most Japanese debt is domestically held so they have at least theoretically less outside influence. In addition it has a cultural history of completely discarding certain previously rigid hierarchies (eg/ the end of Samurai and development of professional army during Meiji period). My guess is that when the Yen starts to rise due to instability elsewhere, especially say in a period of weakness for the Euro or Pound to the point that it hits those crucial exports for Japan is when someone kicks the bottom rung of the House of Cards #geopolitics #japan #debtcrisis
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@TheHolyBuyBull So joining the Bushes and Clintons in infamy will be the Trumps @thenewjew
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@MiningBookGuy The Cost of Fixing Russia’s Economy May 12, 2017 Putin must choose between trying to save the economy and saving himself. https://geopoliticalfutures.com/cost-fixing-russias-economy/ #Russia #Putin #Geopolitics #GeopoliticalFutures @Goldfinger @thenewjew - i didn't see this new article until just now. I think what @thenewjew mentioned as #Japan potentially being the kindling for a #groundzerocrisis as interesting. But going back to #demographics, i think this article provides some evidence for #demographic problems being more urgent in #Russia than #Japan. In addition, I think one could say that #Russia's cultural history is at least as 'open' to extreme disruption as #Japan's. #Japan is more important to the world from a pure financial sense than #Russia. But in so many other ways, #Russia can be a powder-keg in the coming years, and who knows if #Putin will be overthrown if he can't get a handle on what's described in the article (very much related to low #oil prices). BTW, I do like this #GeopoliticalFutures free email. But it does seem very biased towards the #UnitedStates, and that needs to be taken into consideration. #macro
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@thenewjew Brazil's exchange halts trading after 10% drop; investors prepare for prolonged political turmoil: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-18/brazil-sinks-deeper-as-temer-allies-consider-how-to-replace-him #brazil #index #groundzerocrisis #democrazy
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@thenewjew This is huge for Japanese politics. The changing of Emperors is often linked to changing eras; as Leonard Cohen wrote, "the State deals in symbols". Something is in the works here: http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2094907/japanese-government-approves-bill-allow-emperor-akihito-abdicate?utm_source=m.facebook.com&utm_medium=referral #japan #groundzerocrisis #index #japanemperorabdication
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