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CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
@Excelsior@Maggee - I'd be careful lumping all of #Africa in with #Eritrea (which is a cesspool). There are many different countries, governments, and attitudes towards mining in Africa and it is not a "one-size-fits-all". For example, while much of #SouthAfrica is embroiled in labor union nonsense, in contrast, #WestAfrica has been expanding its #Gold mining operations and has many of the most interesting #Exploration, #Development stage, and new #Production projects on the global scene. Come over to ~AUfrica and read up through all the old comments for the last few months and you'll get an indication of how much good activity is afoot, along with some of the challenges in the #Congo or Eritrea. Just like anywhere there is the Good, the Bad, and Ugly.
@nlepanNorthern Miner Editorial: Leadership crisis averted in DRC as Kabila to step down. http://www.northernminer.com/news/editorial-leadership-crisis-averted-drc-kabila-step/1003782147/#DRC#Congo Mineral deposits and mines in the DRC include: Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula copper deposit and Kipushi zinc project; Katanga Mining’s Kamoto copper-cobalt mine; China Molybedenum and Lundin Mining’s Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine; Randgold Resources and AngloGold Ashanti’s 31 million oz. Kibali gold mine; Banro’s mines on the Namoya-Twangiza gold trend; and Glencore and Dan Gertler’s Mutanda Mining and its Mutanda copper mine.
@nlepanMore than a dozen bishops from across the resource-rich nation of Congo of 70 million returned to the capital Kinshasa on Monday tasked with preserving a tenuous succession plan that would see Mr. Kabila step down by December. Sealed in the final hours of 2016, the clergy-brokered agreement has yet to be implemented amid pushback from smaller parties and questions over whether it has the president’s backing. If the church leaders are successful, they could help deliver the Democratic Republic of Congo’s first democratic transition in more than five decades. Failure, on the other hand, would threaten to throw the country deeper into turmoil, potentially destabilizing a region that has suffered some of the most brutal conflicts of the past century. http://www.wsj.com/articles/congos-clergy-heed-call-to-broker-a-political-deal-1483999644#Congo
Plenty of cobalt in the DRC, the world does not need for anyone to find more cobalt there. If there are supply disruptions as a consequence of the volatile political climate in the DRC, what do you suppose happens to cobalt prices? $ARL.AX would certainly participate in higher prices but will $NZC.AX?
The other question - in a jurisdiction with extremely rich copper-cobalt mines, how does $NZC.AX differentiate itself? Does it make sense for Glencore to divert capital from Katanga/Mutanda to develop a much smaller deposit in Kalongwe? Kalongwe would have to be a HUGE deposit for Glencore to want it. Likewise, it would have to be HUGE for anyone else to justify the long-term financial commitment of developing Kalongwe given the obvious risk of operating in the jurisdiction.
Even Gertler's Fleurette is getting the heck out of dodge. With the unraveling of Kabila's regime, Gertler can no longer leverage political connections. Glencore is monied enough to navigate the difficult climate and if there are bumps along the way, it can ride out the issues.
Having said the above, I know a couple of smart people in $NZC.AX - they are buying it for what Kalowange can become. Personally, I'd rather buy $ARL.AX for what KNP already is.
@MiningBookGuy@Brendan - if i was smarter, i would have dug deeper into understanding the #DRC and #cobalt in general. but honestly, i feel that you can be 'dumb' and buy $ARl.AX at these levels, and feel pretty good about it for the reasons I gave.
I think there's a lot of potential for all sorts of resources in the #DRC ...but i also think it's far riskier than the typical speculator perceives at the moment (relative to a basket of 'risky' jurisdictions around the world). Absolutely it can turn around for the better (I will never forget how negative people got on #BurkinaFaso when Campaore got booted, and how quickly it has bounced back). #DRC is big and complex, and some regions may hold up far better than others during a crisis, as they have historically. But #DRC does have some negative signals that can't be ignored right now, IMO. #geopolitics#congo (*note - i generally hesitate to use this tag because of the 'other' congo, but maybe i'll start using #congo#DRC interchangeably)
@MiningBookGuy@FundamentalAnalysis RE: $ARL.AX notes - #mbgtrends#newbies
1. #1 thing in your post - skepticism! $ARL.AX needed this, especially when the share price is on a rocket ship. these are important discussion points.
2. You can compared $ARL.AX to other projects. @PamplonaTrader has, and the #cobalt component is clearly favorable in both scale and grade to other "non-risky" jurisdictions. You kind of make a good point on #Nickel#Optionality. But....
3. This is really key for me. See the NR from last night: https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYC4g%2B9yxKZoeV1ke92GA%3D%3D
there are many details here. let's focus on one section, full quote:
"Lateritic cobalt-nickel mineralisation at Kalpini is not presently part of the KNP Cobalt Zone. The existing resource at Kalpini is 75.0 Mt @ 0.044 % cobalt + 0.73 % nickel (see Ardea Resources prospectus p.86).
However, recent examination by Ardea has defined significant cobalt-bearing intercepts in historic drilling at Kalpini. Planning for the first drill program is still underway for Kalpini where around 25 RC holes are envisaged for around 1000 m of drilling.
The aim of the Kalpini program is to test whether selected resources of the KNP can be upgraded to become part of the KNP Cobalt Zone. This will be a pilot study for a series of other similarly identified cobalt-rich occurrences that are not yet part of the KNP Cobalt Zone. Drilling at Kalpini will be performed back-to-back with the program at Black Range."
We have to keep in mind that this is NOT a typical #optionality play. Yes, many studies have been done before on KNP. But never has it been MORE focused on #cobalt than #nickel. Within the next few months, there is room for an improved #cobalt resource, and metallurgical work could improve the economics. I actually think the #Nickel grades are fine. That's more an issue of being laterite #Nickel, which I just know is generally a more costly process than sulphide #Nickel for extraction.
Anyway, there's A LOT of NEW work going into KNP prior to the completion of the PFS. I am actually bullish #Nickel...but even if you weren't, I strongly feel that a focus on #cobalt zones can turn this into a true 'Cobalt-Nickel' play, rather than 'Nickel-Cobalt'.
4. I think it's harder to make a judgment call on the PFS at this stage. But even with these concerns, it's so easy to forget there's also 'zinc-gold' project, AND earlier stage #nickel exploration. And they are cashed up. And very tight share structure (especially for ASX), which is a critical reason for the price spike. Really, this story is unique in more ways than one.
5. With all this said, it makes sense to start thinking about selling ANYTHING that has doubled or tripled in a few weeks (though @PamplonaTrader has made a very strong argument for holding until certain numbers get hit). I will also mention again that the #1 reason for me to get involved is the potential for #cobalt supply disruption, with so much in #Congo#DRC. That is very speculative (and has worked out so far), but sentiment can change quickly. Still, this is a STRONGER argument than #gold, #silver or #uranium#optionality (where I've seen plenty of people make money on absolutely CRAP projects in the last year or so). I won't name any here...but there's much more to THIS optionality story than most others, IMO.
Plenty for #newbies to think about! The #1 lesson I would share is NOT specifically about $ARL.AX. It's that more people should be "exchange agnostic"...many of the best opportunities for me recently are on the ASX rather than TSX/TSXV. You might still be able to make money on $ARL.AX ...but IMO, best thing to do is set yourself up to trade on ANY of the major exchanges! Many 'veterans' are too stubborn to do this (because they've been only trading in Canada for decades). So consider giving yourself a leg-up in this way...and maybe you can find 'the next $ARL.AX'!
@PamplonaTrader@lukejackson I tend to agree, most of the reason to sell is because the stock price is higher. But I also think that deteriorating conditions in the #DRC#congo has contributed to the reasons for selling. $IVN$KAT
@PamplonaTrader@MFung Thanks. Some say that conditions in the #DRC#congo are improving and some have laughed off the "ethically sourced narrative". I think there are more risks than they are willing to admit. #cobalt
@MiningBookGuy@Brendan - i sold my $ANL.AX at higher levels (basically break-even). i was disappointed they couldn't turn the 'bonanza grades' hit on one property into a legitimate discovery. I'm also kind of down on #DRC#Congo compared to when I bought in last year.
With that said, they likely are at a couple million ounces, and I'm surprised the stock as dropped so much. Maybe also related to Klaus Eckhof getting involved with other stuff, and the #sharestructure has always been poor. There's something interesting here...not good enough for me right now, but I think they are still doing plenty of drilling, maybe a maiden resource would get people interested again. can't remember when that's coming, but i think by end of year. i need to check on this one again. formerly $BYR$BYR.AX
@MiningBookGuy@Brendan - thanks for mentioning $RSG.AX. They definitely should be looked at as a 'dark horse acquirer'. But for whatever reason, they've publicly focused on 2 potential acquisitions (and current investments) outside of #WestAfrica: $KGL in #DRC#Congo, and $MSR.AX in #Tanzania. I know they have many exploration projects in #WestAfrica, and flagship mine in #Mali (with advanced development in #Ghana). It's a good one to be aware of, and the main reason most people probably don't follow it is because it's only listed on the ASX. #ASX-Stocks
And I agree with you on $TGZ! It feels a lot like $EDV a few years ago, and I am sure this is NOT a coincidence. Who wouldn't want to be 'the next $EDV'? both in growth profile and stock price appreciation :)
@MiningBookGuyRE-POSTING for proper tagging + comments:
Randgold Resources: Kibali heads for full production @marketwired/randgold-resources-kibali-heads-for-full-production$RRS.L#Randgold#Kibali#DRC#Congo~AUfrica
Very impressive mine...but also a very important #DRC#Congo#MiningCode concern. I will copy the full quote at the end of the NR, this is worth monitoring for ~AUfrica followers:
[It was a source of concern, however, that the DRC government had once again signalled its intention of reviewing the country's 2002 #miningcode with the clear intention of maximising state revenue, Bristow said. This could have a very negative impact not only on the mining industry but also on the economy.
"Now more than ever the #DRC should be focused on retaining its existing investors and attracting new ones. It's certainly not the time to harvest more from less for short term gain. It's my sincere hope that this time round the government will engage the mining sector fully in the proposed review to achieve an outcome that will be in the best interests of the Congolese economy as well as the country's mining sector," he said.
"The existing code is in fact a good one but it is not always being applied effectively and there are still many mining operations that do not operate under the code. There are also a number of issues and challenges which mining companies are having to face which make operating in the DRC more challenging. In #Kibali's case, these issues include more than $200 million in unpaid TVA and duty refunds."]
@MiningBookGuyDR Congo jailbreak frees 900 inmates http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/40242338 h/t @sndwky#DRC#Congo#jailbreak#Africa~AUfrica#index
"Eleven people were killed when militants attacked a prison in the Democratic Republic of Congo and freed more than 900 inmates, officials say."
"The incident in Beni is the latest in a series of jailbreaks in the country.
Last month about 4,000 inmates escaped from a high security prison in the capital Kinshasa following an attack blamed on a separatist sect."