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@Newton @Highheat RE #Gas, I think recent collapse is a big deal precisely because gas is set to rally. Rally from a lower base all the more intriguing... https://ceo.ca/index?e4a51a64e0df
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@Newton #Gas down ever more today. Big flush. Potentially great setup for a big move higher as head into winter! Question @highheat -- any comments on preferred instruments to trade gas? TBH I like options on HNU and HND. Guilty confessions. https://www.m-x.ca/nego_cotes_in_en.php?symbol=HNU*
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@Newton I'm with you @aldenTyrell #bullish on #gas. Is $ppy on discount here? https://ceo.ca/index?e0c1112f90ff
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@Excelsior #GOLD #SILVER #COPPER #Molybdenum #OIL #GAS #STREAMING #ROYALTY $FNV ~Royaltiesandstreams Here is a list of the Assets Franco Nevada has: http://www.franco-nevada.com/our-assets/assets-list/default.aspx http://www.franco-nevada.com/our-assets/portfolio-overview/default.aspx Franco-Nevada Upcoming Events - NOV 7 Third Quarter Results Release - NOV 8 Third Quarter 2016 Conference Call - 10:00 AM ET Second Quarter Report for the three and six months ended June 30, 2016 http://s21.q4cdn.com/700333554/files/doc_financials/2016/Q2/v5FINAL_Q2_FN'16.pdf
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@Newton Also, #gas is apparently having an algo-driven freak out just now. Futures markets acting funny. Has been making big moves last few months and no sign of stopping soon. Hang on tight for next 24 hours with some big moves in markets possible.
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@Newton Picture of #gas activity last night. See the big red bar around midnight? It comes after price had moved up over a twenty minute period. Large amount of volume and price movement for overnight trading, and not well explained by weather or other news. Put on your helmet today, traders! http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c23nlp-Gas-OvernightSpike.png+
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@Newton Markets going crazy here tonight. December #gas down to 2.50 area after touching 3.50 in October. Back of curve, spring-months are getting hit particularly hard.
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@Newton Oh, wait -- weather got colder on next run here. #gas getting bid a bit. "Imagine if weather started getting cold right now?"
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@Newton Wild movements in #gas continued today and even some heavy trading in off-hours tonight. Crazy volatility!
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@PamplonaTrader “It’s really tough for me to see how you repeal the price of natural gas” https://morningconsult.com/2016/11/15/coal-country-will-disappointed-trump-climate-action-proponents-warn/ #coal #gas
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anonymous The U.S Just Became a Net Exporter of Natural Gas: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-US-Just-Became-A-Net-Exporter-Of-Natural-Gas.html $gas
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@Excelsior #NaturalGas as a Global Commodity Jude Clemente – NOV 23, 2016 “The #US became a net gas exporter just a few weeks ago, but exports to #Canada have actually been falling. Unlike still developing #Mexico, Canada doesn’t have huge incremental #gas needs, explaining why it’s so critical for Canada’s gas industry to have access to global markets via #LNG. Interestingly, while Mexico is overdependent at 60%, natural gas accounts for just 10% of Canada’s #power generation. But, U.S. #shale #gas will continue to be very competitive into eastern Canada as new pipeline infrastructure gets built, such as the Rover and Nexus routes which will take Marcellus and Utica gas to southern Ontario’s Dawn hub. Both are expected to have completed phases next year. One interesting market to watch will be how rising #oil prices impact #OilSands development in #Alberta and thus Canadian gas demand. Mining and in situ oil sands activity utilize gas for process heat and to upgrade bitumen to synthetic crude. #Gas utilized in the business is expected to double to around 5.2 Bcf/d by 2030…” http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2016/11/23/natural-gas-as-a-global-commodity/#15923e501fd6
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@Excelsior #NaturalGas as a Global Commodity Jude Clemente – NOV 23, 2016 “The #US became a net gas exporter just a few weeks ago, but exports to #Canada have actually been falling. Unlike still developing #Mexico, Canada doesn’t have huge incremental #gas needs, explaining why it’s so critical for Canada’s gas industry to have access to global markets via #LNG. Interestingly, while Mexico is overdependent at 60%, natural gas accounts for just 10% of Canada’s #power generation. But, U.S. #shale #gas will continue to be very competitive into eastern Canada as new pipeline infrastructure gets built, such as the Rover and Nexus routes which will take Marcellus and Utica gas to southern Ontario’s Dawn hub. Both are expected to have completed phases next year. One interesting market to watch will be how rising #oil prices impact #OilSands development in #Alberta and thus Canadian gas demand. Mining and in situ oil sands activity utilize gas for process heat and to upgrade bitumen to synthetic crude. #Gas utilized in the business is expected to double to around 5.2 Bcf/d by 2030…” http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2016/11/23/natural-gas-as-a-global-commodity/#15923e501fd6
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@Nick I made a top up purchase yesterday of $PNL.AX. The economics of their thermal coal project in the USA look excellent. News only released a few weeks back: Average annual EBITDA of US$132m whilst Poplar Grove and Cypress Mines are operating at full capacity. This combined development has a Net Present Value of US$497m ($654m AUD) with an internal rate of return of 37%. Current market cap only US$65m ($85m AUD) http://www.paringaresources.com/uploads/2/4/5/1/24511181/161121_poplar_grove_bfs_announcement_final.pdf #thermalcoal #coal #gas
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@Newton Good to see cold weather coming in @Highheat do you watch those calendar spreads? Big changes happening in #gas markets imo.
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@Newton @Highheat was looking at10-year forward curves for #gas over past few years. Curve has collapsed so much. Record low levels across 10 year horizon and record flatness. Market looks very dead based on that chart. But there is so much more going on! Bullish push from export facilities coming online, mixed effects of fracking (net bullish imo as high yield markets break and ability to bring back online is impaired), and bearish effects of renewables make it not a slam dunk for extended rally in gas. But with some cold weather? ... get ready! #NaturalGas to $5+
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@Avicenna I am bearish on Nat. gas. There is waaaay too much speculation on this at this point & prices have rallied on that. The onlyway this will hold is if the weather hold cold enough.
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@Newton FYI @Highheat the story is that weather estimates went warmer over the weekend. Shorter term forecasts. Longer term ones are still cold, but these ones over weekend were warm enough to give "reason" for #gas to go down a bunch. Says a friend who is gas trader... maybe can put you in touch w him if you'd like.
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@MiningBookGuy Forbes Energy to file for bankruptcy as early as this month: sources http://www.reuters.com/article/us-forbesenergy-bankruptcy-idUSKBN14524P #ForbesEnergy #oil #gas #bankruptcy #bankrupt #index "U.S. oilfield services firm Forbes Energy Services Ltd is preparing to file for bankruptcy as soon as this month, as it struggles with approximately $300 million in debt, people familiar with the matter said on Friday."
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@newswire Auspice Capital Advisors Announces Estimated 2016 Non-Cash Distribution for GAS @newswire/auspice-capital-advisors-announces-estimated-2016-non-cash $GAS
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@Newton Great talk by #GregorMacdonald from http://www.terrajoule.us/ on #naturalgas for #realvision recently. He comes on quarterly and does great deep dive on particular topic. Prior one was "cost declines in #solar". Absolutely stunning analysis of engineering progress and economic implications. Recent one was on #bullish case for #gas here now, but long-term switch into a "dependency market" for gas, rather than a "growth market". Reason being displacement of gas by solar power (marginal unit electricity demand will be served by solar). Points to coal as example of dependency market today -- still widely used, but limited growth. Big implications for price action. Dependency markets can see prices spike to bring forward production, but not really bull market trends like seen with growing use of commodity. All in all, super interesting contrast of wildly bullish setup for gas next couple years and bearish case starting 3 years out. Some big calls and big ideas behind his work there. Gregor has a #newsletter, BTW. He mentioned that next talk on #realvisiontv may be about solar, again. I certainly want to hear more about negative prices for electricity seen in #Germany and #California!
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from ~realvisiontheater3000,
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@Mimibegalo @anon
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@newswire Auspice Capital Advisors Confirms 2016 Annual Non-Cash Distribution for GAS @newswire/auspice-capital-advisors-confirms-2016-annual-non-cash $GAS
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@Newton Sounds like danger in the #gas markets today! Stories of analysts urging caution to hedge funds last week and today phone lines unconnected. Careful trading in #naturalgas!
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from @newton,
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@newstracker #Oil US$56.1/bbl vs US$57.1/bbl yesterday Natural #Gas US$3.295/mmbtu vs US$3.493/mmbtu yesterday #Uranium US$20.50/lb v US$20.40/lb yesterday
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@Newton "Expanded capital budget" now those are words I haven't heard in a long time. Good work $PPY. #gas
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@nlepan In Mexico, there has been a sharp increase in gas prices that has led to an eruption of looting of gas stations. Protesters also continued to block highways, burn tires and seize gas stations, snarling traffic and jeopardizing fuel supplies across the country. http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/unrest-over-mexico-gasoline-prices-erupts-into-looting-1.3228233 #gas #oil #energy
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@PamplonaTrader ICYMI ... "As part of the pact, the country will offer a subsidized price of $7.50 per million British thermal units of natural gas produced at new wells through the year 2020." http://www.reuters.com/article/argentina-gas-idUSL1N1F00IV #argentina #gas $YPF $ARGT $MVN
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@nlepan Europe Left in Cold as Frost Triggers Global LNG Hunt. European countries from France to Greece are losing out in a search for liquefied natural gas cargoes amid a freezing spell, as ships sail to buyers in Asia willing to pay a higher price to meet peak winter demand. The lack of LNG has prompted France’s grid to call for more of the fuel to be supplied by southern terminals and issue the highest warning level on supplies for a second day. Shortages were experienced in Turkey, and Spain also boosted gas usage. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-10/europe-left-in-the-cold-as-frost-triggers-global-hunt-for-lng #gas #energy
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@Goldfinger Short interest in $oil & $gas drillers off the highs but still very elevated: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c7dk88-IMG_4901.JPG+
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anonymous US Energy Thematic investing for 2017: https://investoralmanac.com/2016/12/30/thematic-investing-in-us-energy/
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@Leon @F6 - yes, the war in #Syria, as well as the entire Arab Spring from Libya to Egypt to Iraq has been about control of #oil and natural #gas and the potential of the promissing markets of the #EU. In Aleppo the US-coalition has lost its face and they are now looking for revenge. #politics http://journal-neo.org/2016/09/17/russia-trumps-usa-energy-war-in-mideast/
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@PamplonaTrader $DMLP great #oil and #gas #royalty play
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@Empire I had posted this on the index a few days ago but not sure how many saw it so I’ll repost it here for anybody interested. $JSE has some good assets and is one of my favorite energy picks at the moment. Recently closed a 53 million dollar financing, and acquired the stag oilfield, which is a producing asset offshore Australia. Of the 221 million shares outstanding, roughly 200 million of those shares are held by funds and insiders of the company. Being run by Paul Blakely who built Talismans Asia division into a Multi-Billion dollar powerhouse, his plan is to do the same here. Trading at a discount to peers on a flowing barrel metric no debt and cash in the bank, I feel this is could be a good bet for the future. Been consolidating at these levels for a while now, so not a lot of action lately but could get interesting later into 2017 and going into 2018 when they become cash flow positive. Lots of catalysts coming, I would love to hear others thoughts. I am long http://www.jadestone-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/20170118-Corporate-Marketing-Presentation.pdf
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@BS @anomalloy I would be surprised if those service companies make any significant money. Their margins have been squeezed tremendously the past couple of years... #oil #gas
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@Leon Consumer confidence slipped for the first time since October 2016 - Chicagos PMI crashes to recession-fearing-11-months-low. The last time it was lower than 50.3 was in Feb 2016. #gold #silver #oil #gas #commodities www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-31/consumer-confidence-disappoints-drops-trump-fueled-16-year-highs-hope-fades
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@PamplonaTrader EIA Natural #Gas Stocks Change at -87Bcf
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@Excelsior @barracuda - I've steered clear of Saudi Arabia's Aramco offering, and while I'm not touching it personally, I haven't really done enough research to investigate whether it is properly valued. Their country & market is somewhat opaque and I feel there are better ways to play the #Oil market. There are some individual #Oil & #Gas companies that look interesting, but mostly just use the ETFs $XLE, $XOP, and $OIH to get exposure to the Majors, Juniors, and Service companies.
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from @excelsior,
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@Goldfinger Natural $gas continues its downtrend, April nat gas futures -7% this morning and below the 200-day moving average for the 3rd session in a row: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1caoo4i-Natural_Gas_2.21.2017.png+
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@Alan Interview with $FNV ceo David Harquail on #gold and #oil and #gas royalties https://youtu.be/j5u6HO1nJY4+
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@Excelsior After #Oil & #Gas, Is #Uranium Next? – Franco-Nevada CEO $FNV #streaming #Index Feb 26, 2017 – Guest(s): David Harquail CEO, Franco-Nevada ~Royaltiesandstreams "A leading precious metals company has been diversifying into oil & gas,ut could it be looking to expand into other commodities? Franco-Nevada CEO David Harquail joins Kitco News at #Gold Stock Analyst Investor Day to talk about the company’s strategy for 2017.” http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/GSA-Investor-Day-2017/1497/2017-02-26/After-Oil–Gas-Is-Uranium-Next—Franco-Nevada-CEO
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@Excelsior Anti-Nuke Dogma Trumps Common Sense On #Nuclear Energy James Conca , Contributor – FEB 22, 2017 “The report claims #wind and #solar prices have fallen dramatically, and rightly so, but then fails to mention they still cost more than existing power plants that have two or three times their lifespan. They also fail to tell the reader that #naturalgas or #hydropower is necessary to backup #wind and #solar, at an unknown cost, something #California is struggling with as their renewables approach 30%.” All other legitimate reports disagree with the McCullough analysis, showing instead that this strategy of replacing Columbia Generating Station with #renewables and #gas would lose ratepayers about $1.6 billion over the next 20 years and put an extra 60 million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere (IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, EIA, BPA) while laying off a thousand workers and three thousand more that depend on them….” “It does seem foolish to close a power plant 25 years ahead of schedule when it’s producing energy at a price of 4.2¢/kWh, 93% of the time with only 17 gCO2/kWh, based solely on the hope that gas prices will not increase for 20 years. And Columbia Generating Station’s price can’t go up much in the next 20 years since their Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) recently signed with Bonneville Power Administration is set at between 4.7 and 5.2¢/kWh.” #Uranium https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/02/22/anti-nuclear-group-ideology-trumps-common-sense-on-nuclear-energy/#1f3322c77415
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from #uranium,