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CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
@Excelsior#NaturalGas as a Global Commodity
Jude Clemente – NOV 23, 2016
“The #US became a net gas exporter just a few weeks ago, but exports to #Canada have actually been falling. Unlike still developing #Mexico, Canada doesn’t have huge incremental #gas needs, explaining why it’s so critical for Canada’s gas industry to have access to global markets via #LNG. Interestingly, while Mexico is overdependent at 60%, natural gas accounts for just 10% of Canada’s #power generation.
But, U.S. #shale#gas will continue to be very competitive into eastern Canada as new pipeline infrastructure gets built, such as the Rover and Nexus routes which will take Marcellus and Utica gas to southern Ontario’s Dawn hub. Both are expected to have completed phases next year.
One interesting market to watch will be how rising #oil prices impact #OilSands development in #Alberta and thus Canadian gas demand. Mining and in situ oil sands activity utilize gas for process heat and to upgrade bitumen to synthetic crude. #Gas utilized in the business is expected to double to around 5.2 Bcf/d by 2030…”
@Newton@Highheat was looking at10-year forward curves for #gas over past few years. Curve has collapsed so much. Record low levels across 10 year horizon and record flatness. Market looks very dead based on that chart. But there is so much more going on! Bullish push from export facilities coming online, mixed effects of fracking (net bullish imo as high yield markets break and ability to bring back online is impaired), and bearish effects of renewables make it not a slam dunk for extended rally in gas. But with some cold weather? ... get ready! #NaturalGas to $5+
@AvicennaI am bearish on Nat. gas. There is waaaay too much speculation on this at this point & prices have rallied on that. The onlyway this will hold is if the weather hold cold enough.
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@NewtonFYI @Highheat the story is that weather estimates went warmer over the weekend. Shorter term forecasts. Longer term ones are still cold, but these ones over weekend were warm enough to give "reason" for #gas to go down a bunch. Says a friend who is gas trader... maybe can put you in touch w him if you'd like.
@NewtonGreat talk by #GregorMacdonald from http://www.terrajoule.us/ on #naturalgas for #realvision recently. He comes on quarterly and does great deep dive on particular topic. Prior one was "cost declines in #solar". Absolutely stunning analysis of engineering progress and economic implications. Recent one was on #bullish case for #gas here now, but long-term switch into a "dependency market" for gas, rather than a "growth market". Reason being displacement of gas by solar power (marginal unit electricity demand will be served by solar). Points to coal as example of dependency market today -- still widely used, but limited growth. Big implications for price action. Dependency markets can see prices spike to bring forward production, but not really bull market trends like seen with growing use of commodity. All in all, super interesting contrast of wildly bullish setup for gas next couple years and bearish case starting 3 years out. Some big calls and big ideas behind his work there. Gregor has a #newsletter, BTW. He mentioned that next talk on #realvisiontv may be about solar, again. I certainly want to hear more about negative prices for electricity seen in #Germany and #California!
@Empire I had posted this on the index a few days ago but not sure how many saw it so I’ll repost it here for anybody interested. $JSE has some good assets and is one of my favorite energy picks at the moment. Recently closed a 53 million dollar financing, and acquired the stag oilfield, which is a producing asset offshore Australia. Of the 221 million shares outstanding, roughly 200 million of those shares are held by funds and insiders of the company. Being run by Paul Blakely who built Talismans Asia division into a Multi-Billion dollar powerhouse, his plan is to do the same here. Trading at a discount to peers on a flowing barrel metric no debt and cash in the bank, I feel this is could be a good bet for the future. Been consolidating at these levels for a while now, so not a lot of action lately but could get interesting later into 2017 and going into 2018 when they become cash flow positive. Lots of catalysts coming, I would love to hear others thoughts. I am long
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@BS@anomalloy I would be surprised if those service companies make any significant money. Their margins have been squeezed tremendously the past couple of years... #oil#gas
@Excelsior@barracuda - I've steered clear of Saudi Arabia's Aramco offering, and while I'm not touching it personally, I haven't really done enough research to investigate whether it is properly valued. Their country & market is somewhat opaque and I feel there are better ways to play the #Oil market.
There are some individual #Oil & #Gas companies that look interesting, but mostly just use the ETFs $XLE, $XOP, and $OIH to get exposure to the Majors, Juniors, and Service companies.
@ExcelsiorAnti-Nuke Dogma Trumps Common Sense On #Nuclear Energy
James Conca , Contributor – FEB 22, 2017
“The report claims #wind and #solar prices have fallen dramatically, and rightly so, but then fails to mention they still cost more than existing power plants that have two or three times their lifespan. They also fail to tell the reader that #naturalgas or #hydropower is necessary to backup #wind and #solar, at an unknown cost, something #California is struggling with as their renewables approach 30%.”
All other legitimate reports disagree with the McCullough analysis, showing instead that this strategy of replacing Columbia Generating Station with #renewables and #gas would lose ratepayers about $1.6 billion over the next 20 years and put an extra 60 million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere (IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, EIA, BPA) while laying off a thousand workers and three thousand more that depend on them….”
“It does seem foolish to close a power plant 25 years ahead of schedule when it’s producing energy at a price of 4.2¢/kWh, 93% of the time with only 17 gCO2/kWh, based solely on the hope that gas prices will not increase for 20 years. And Columbia Generating Station’s price can’t go up much in the next 20 years since their Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) recently signed with Bonneville Power Administration is set at between 4.7 and 5.2¢/kWh.”
@anomalloy@highheat, for fun compare $TVE with $TGA, and check out service co's like $TDG and $CWC. Expanding, generating more revenue. Should have great 1st qtrs independent of fluctuating oil prices. Speaking of which, Russia reneged on their promised cuts, (to no ones surprise) but the Saudi king and his entourage are flying around Asia, probably trying to keep the prices up, imho. #oil#gas
@LeonLondon-based bullion broker Sharps Pixley, formerly owned by Deutsche Bank, has suggested that #Russia's #gold reserves could overtake #China's by the end of this year. Here's the final takeaway: "..both China and Russia see gold as an important element in the global financial system. China has reportedly called for gold to be included in the basket of currencies which makes up the #IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR). Certainly Russia's President Putin is a gold believer. The Chinese hierarchy is perhaps a little more circumspect in its open support for gold, but both nations are keen to see the US #dollar dominance of world trade - particularly with respect to #oil and #gas - depleted and see gold as one of the tools for helping them achieve this objective." www.sharpspixley.com/articles/lawrie-williams-russias-gold-reserves-could-overtake-chinas-this-year_264838.html
@terrysteenO&G, a little speculation on my part. a question in my mind is why would Saudi like to IPO Aramico? Could it be because they know where the price, consumption and volume are at present and what the long term outlook will be. Suadi has held tightly to there ranking in global supply, biggest player and have profited, financed their country and interest for decades from the cash cow, (oil revenue). One serious political risk is the direct tie to oil set in US dollars, many other countries are trading oil for gold through the chinese. Could spell trouble for the US dollar I am thinking next year. Food for thought, I will not go into oil, wish I had the brains and balls to short! Good gas plays are still OK for after October! #Oil#USD#Gas
@fbIt is short term reaction. The best indicator of comparative inventory points to much higher prices. It's unsustainable at these levels. That being said all bets are off in the hands of short term traders.