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@MiningBookGuyOK, there are actually 2 #gold books recommended here. But as you read, you’ll see I clearly like one the best (if you only want 1). I would highly recommend both as they go well together.
1.“The New World of Gold” by Timothy Green - http://www.amazon.com/New-World-Gold-Politics-Investors/dp/0802706924/ref=sr_1_2_twi_har_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445876603&sr=1-2&keywords=%22the+new+world+of+gold%22
1981-1984 (NOTE - I only own the 1981 copy. Not sure about any changes for later editions)
There are currently multiple copies for ~$4 on Amazon , excellent value.
2.“The Prospect for Gold” by Timothy Green - http://www.amazon.com/Prospect-Gold-View-Year-2000/dp/0802710026/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445876746&sr=1-3&keywords=%22the+prospect+for+gold%22
There are a few copies on Amazon for ~$5, a great value. But you can find even more for a bit cheaper using #BookFinder .
Please be aware that there are A LOT of #gold books by #TimothyGreen (he’s an amazing, underrated and prolific writer). It can get confusing. While I recommend these two above others, there is significant overlap between “The New World of Gold" with the earlier “The World of Gold” book by the same author. I find all his books are fun to read.
But, there are a few reasons I recommend “The New World of Gold” as "THE ONE", the #1 copy you should buy, if you only want one, excellent book on #gold :
-Much less focus on #SouthAfrica for #goldmining, though it was still dominant in the early 1980s. This book is great for showing the early transition from the huge, historic South African mines to the upstarts in other countries. I especially liked the contrast of the #SouthAfrica, #Canada, and #Brazil mining chapters.
-The contrast between the physical and paper gold markets (and general history) is incredibly valuable. The late 70s/early 80s was a turning point from which things haven’t really changed. The original “The World of Gold” book in the late 1960s focused on the physical gold market for smuggling, centered in Beirut. For the paper market, the center became the COMEX in NYC by the early 80s. But there’s some fascinating chapters on #HongKong and #Singapore, where Hong Kong was a unique speculative market like the COMEX for Asians, while Singapore was more about distributing physical gold, especially to Indonesia. (though there’s physical and paper markets in all of these places)
Many valuable details on the contrast of physical/paper gold, and gold as a speculative vs insurance vehicle. This might be the #1 reason to recommend this book over all of #TimothyGreen ’s other ones, if you only want one.
-Oh, and super valuable details on how the run-up in the gold price in 1979/1980 is directly related to the newly rich families in the #MiddleEast turning oil money into gold gambling.
"The Prospect for Gold” is well worth a look for the following reasons:
-I consider it my best book for global #goldmining in the 1980s. There is much more of a focus on that decade, as well as looking towards the future rather than the past. More information on goldmining in #USA and #Canada , some good info on #heapleaching . Some good details on #Hemlo , and I was especially interested in the #Lupin mine owned by #EchoBay at the time, when it was the world’s most northerly gold mine, where #Nunavut is today. Also good stuff on gold in #Australia , and early look at #China , with even a mention of Robert #Friedland going there with #GalacticResources. And more on other parts of the world.
-Chapter 13 in this book titled “Investors: Portfolio Manager Versus Souk” is really valuable. Fascinating look at how physical gold flows through #Dubai , #Singapore , and #HongKong , and how this interacts with the speculative paper price set in places like the COMEX in NYC. There is actual data on this, and I think it’s important to always keep this in mind, even though it sometimes feels like the paper market completely dominates the physical market.
-In addition, there’s a load of valuable data, quite nicely presented in #TheProspectforGold
If you want to know more about the history of how physical and paper gold interact, you must buy BOTH of these books. The books complement each other for information on places like the #MiddleEast and #India . I am one of those people that thinks the physical market is making a strong comeback. These books provide great insight for how the physical gold market dominance transitioned towards paper gold dominance in #the1970s and #the1980s (if you think of them as being in a dance towards setting the price). Perhaps we are heading back towards the importance of the physical market...
Lastly, some fantastic quotes directly from my 1981 copy of #TheNewWorldofGold :
“Stalin preferred to husband his gold reserves as the ultimate war chest. And he took any opportunity to top it up. He secured a handsome bonus, for example, in 1937 when he accepted the bulk of Spain’s gold reserves as security for payment for arms and aircraft during the Spanish Civil War. At least 500 tons of gold, then worth $560 million, were secretly shipped from Madrid to Moscow. At a banquet in the Kremlin to celebrate the arrival, Stalin reported to have said “The Spaniards will never see their gold again.” They never have.”
“The fading of Dawson City reflected the overall decline of gold mining in Canada for thirty years after the end of the World War II. Once gold was the backbone of the Canadian mining industry. But, from a proud peak year in 1941 when 146 gold mines wrested 172 tons from the ground to help Canada pay for urgently needed war supplies, production slowly diminished until, by 1978, only fourteen mines remained yielding scarcely 50 tons. True, Canada held onto third place in the world production league table but, with output only seven percent of South Africa’s, she was hardly a formidable challenger. Interest in gold was so slight that one mining executive ventured, “I reckon you could have bought the entire Canadian gold-mining industry for $15 million in the early 1970s."
And one valuable quote directly from my 1987 copy of #TheProspectforGold:
“ 'The profitability of gold mining over the past five years has been a major factor in persuading mining companies to increase their exposure to the metal,’ observed Jim Fisher of Brook Hunt & Associates, the London mining consultants. ‘For each year since 1979, over ninety per cent of gold production in the Western world has shown an operating profit. No other metal has come anywhere near this record in recent years.’ While prices of such base metals as #copper and #zinc are down in real terms by two-thirds since 1970, the gold price, in real terms, has more than tripled.
The consequent shift in the energies of mining companies is understandable, but quite remarkable in scale. Prior to 1968, while the gold price was fixed at $35, exploration for new gold deposits outside South Africa was negligible. Even in 1975, after the price had first risen close to $200 an ounce, gold commanded barely ten per cent of exploration budgets. Today it is often eighty per cent or more. In #Australia alone, exploration expenditure soared from A$30 million in 1980 to over A$200 million in 1986. Overall, close to US$1 billion is now being invested annually in the search for gold, triple the amount in 1980."
There are many more factual nuggets like these in #TimothyGreen ’s books that I haven’t found anywhere else. I emphasize that #TheNewWorldofGold is my #1 book on #gold (many great parts of the book I haven’t commented on). I own and read a lot of books on #gold . #TheProspectforGold is a close 2nd. An excellent read on its own. But I think these 2 books go quite well together. They are really fun to read.
If you like these, I would then recommend looking into all of #TimothyGreen ’s other books, written before and after these 2 two (like the original #TheWorldofGold )
@MiningBookGuy@Aurelio - the #AQIM link to the West African countries is concerning. But there's something about Turkey is feels much bigger. Yes, exactly with the #Russia link and the rest of the #MiddleEast. Unfortunately, it feels like Turkey could be in the midst of a huge transformation along with that region. #Ebola was a much bigger concern to me for #WestAfrica that has gone away (at least for now).
I'm trying to think of a better way to express this (maybe another time). But for now, I still feel you can look at countries individually in West Africa, and not worry as much about the bigger forces at play. That's the type of stuff that makes #geopolitics tricky, and also creates disaster or opportunity.
@Excelsior@Goldfinger - there may be a billion pounds of #Uranium in the #AthabascaBasin, $CCJ$DNN$NXE$FCU$UEX$CVV$AL but not all of it will be as "economically viable" as some believe due to the depth, water issues, permitting timelines, environmental push-back. Some of that Athabasca Uranium is actually underwater making accessing the ore more challenging, or directing miners to underground where they lose much of those ounces. This is one of the key advantages $NXE has over many of it's neighbors for example.
Higher grade is awesome, but it isn't always the most economical. There are plenty of commodities where lower grade resources end up being more economical due to power, roads, water, jurisdiction, taxes, permitting, distance to mill, etc... The other thing about much of the exploration being done in the Athabasca is that much of it is years away from all the permits and development needed to bring it to market.
Many of the existing producers or development stage companies in the #US ( $UUUU$URG$UEC$URRE$PENMF$WSTRF) and #Australia ( $EGRAF$BKLRF$TOEYF$BNNLF$BOE.AX ) are positioned to capitalize on prices as they rise in 2017-2020. The US is the #1 nuclear country and imports 90% of its fuel. (just imagine if the US imported 90% of it's Oil) The US producers that supply this need will have a big advantage for negotiations in this next cycle, as will the African deposits that may supply the reactors being built in #Africa, the #MiddleEast, and #Europe . #Index
@MiningBookGuy@FundamentalAnalysis - i hope frontier markets will continue to be interesting! i am concerned the world will get at least partially 'closed off', similar to how it was pre-1990s. I was optimistic #Iran not too long ago, and getting very bearish now (at least for anyone US-related like me!).
After reading some #geopolitics books recently, I am generally more bearish #Asia / #Eurasia / #MiddleEast, and more bullish #NorthAmerica / #LatinAmerica / #Africa, and not sure what to make of #Europe. But it all comes down to specific countries. And importantly, sometimes a country can have tons of 'negative' news in the media, but still be great for #mining! That's a useful consideration right now. #mbgtrends