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@wiley_coyote Yes exactly @Chucklee...I've owned a penny stock or two in the past and after an inexplicable run on the stock, many of them will issue a NR saying just that. 'We don't know why the SP is down but rest assured the company's overall position and operations remain unchanged'. Not exactly rocket science.
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@MadeOfRubber Pretty sure we will hear something soon. Don't forget to drop an email to IR. http://www.redeaglemining.com/contact/contact_us/
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@Andrew $R Red Eagle Mining is taking it on the chin once again today. Another new 52 week low. I wonder if Stracon GyM is the same one selling their shares? I believe at last count on SEDAR they had approx. 10.5M shares remaining.
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@Chucklee i was debating about averaging down. But f it. Selling probably wont slow down so might as well wait till we hit low 40s or high 30s. ugh.
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@Andrew I will wait to see if it drops below .38 before considering to add to my position. $R
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@Moose_pasture Falling knife or stellar bargain ? Time will tell, but I believe, you'll have a very profitable trade if you bought at these levels and are willing to wait 12 months.
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@Chucklee @Moose_pasture i agree. but it absolutely sucks for people who bought over $0.7... like myself. oh well.
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@enviro111 $r. It is dangerous to average down on these mining stocks in general. Doubly so if you don't know what is going on. Trippy so in this case. There is apparent good news but the stock tanks. Makes no sense to me right now. Eventually when the news comes out, it will all make sense.
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@wiley_coyote I agree @enviro111 that you should be very careful about adding to a losing position in the mining sector. But this one seemed pretty solid - ie. decent guidance for the first year of ops (30k to 40k oz's) and a BOD comprised of some pretty legit mining executives. Makes it all the more frustrating to see the SP tank like this.
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@Moose_pasture @Chucklee: I would even say, that people who bought in the 70's or even 80's will be happy campers in 12 months time.
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@mountains_of_glory I don't see the appeal here. The AT-NPV-5 is lower than the market cap, they have substantial debt, they are low on cash. I'd definitely rather be holding $TGZ or $ASR.
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@wannabeinvestor @mountains_of_glory, this NPV is based in reserves of 400k oz. surely there is significant exploration upside, they have also installed a plant that's capable of handling larger volume of ore. also, did you check the IRR at NPV 5%?
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@wannabeinvestor BTW, 65% of $XR held by $R is currently valued at ca C$40m by the market. in my book the FD market cap of $R @ C$0.46 is C$132m, FD net debt (assuming inflow from warrants) is C$ 33m, i.e. EV of C$155m which then includes the value of the exploration arm, i.e. the market values Santa Rosa mining business at ca C$115m vs NPV at US$ 104m (at $1300 POG).
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@CriticalInvestor I always found the 50 x 50m grid spacing for the FS reserves to be very optimistic, as we are dealing with high grade veins here. And maybe rock competence needed more study too, to take into account stability issues. Risky to cut corners in mining, and it might show here.
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@CriticalInvestor Btw I also discussed this issue with Brent and Ian on May 24-30 2016 in Index, you can find it in the $RD channel. Brent was also surprised they did 50m spacing on veins, but Ian said it was very consistent. I asked him how he could know this, never got an answer.
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@wannabeinvestor @CriticalInvestor, so you reckon their reserves are under or overstated?
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@wannabeinvestor so their FS foresees 1k tpd operation with an option to upgrade that to 2k at a minor capex. are you saying they may not have the potential to make this expansion happen based on the drilling done thus far, @CriticalInvestor?
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@CriticalInvestor @wannabeinvestor I am not stating anything as I don't know what's going on there, just saying that any rumors if true could have their roots in the wide grid spacing.
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@Andrew From the 17 January 2017 news release from the 2016 ore production stope delineation drilling , "The 10,000m programme was drilled from eight pads spaced over 300m of strike length. 107 diamond drill holes (SRD-0001 to SRD-0107) were drilled on approximately 15m centres from near surface to a vertical depth of 160m from surface." I believe the drilling would produce more representative numbers than the FS Reserve numbers. $R
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@wannabeinvestor @Andrew, yes, especially if you consider this bullet from the presentation about San Ramon -- 'Over 3,000 historic adits and 100 surface mines mapped' Surely there's lots of gold in the area, that must have been the understanding on which this whole mine-building project and investment by Liberty was predicated.
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@Andrew This recent down turn is great for those who have capital to spare. Time will tell. $R
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@wannabeinvestor Looking at some smaller-scale producing comps, I found the current valuation or $RIC pretty curious. FD market cap ca C$ 655m (EV of C$ 590m) vs NPV of US$ 335m at $1250 POG. Total reserves of ca 725k oz and likely growing quite a bit based on resources identified so far. That and the fact that it's also very high-grade resource in Canada is probably why investors are paying a premium. Sustainable AISC is in fact a tad higher than that of $R. Production volumes are similar. Unless there is something very wrong with $R, I would argue that relative to RIC this thing should outperform significantly.
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@Markus @Ian no Update ? No news ? No comment ?
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@wiley_coyote Not sure I've ever seen anything like this before. The stock closed at 67 cents on May 23rd...less than a calendar month ago. Absolutely stunning. And on no news? Bizarre I tell ya, bizarre.
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@Andrew It may be one a finance company/broker looking to partake in the next PP at lower levels. Just my guess. $R
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@wiley_coyote Yeah I've seen that floated a few times now as a possibility. But the SP is behaving like there was an explosion at the mine that killed 3 people. Or banditos took it over. How else do you lose 30-40% of the value of a stock with nary an event tied to the decline? I guess we'll see in the next 30 days or so when $R IR finally says something publicly. They can't stay silent for much longer...you would think.
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wannabeinvestor Is it not so that if they had a material issue, they would have to report immediately? I don't see how can they hold any important information to themselves. A more likely reason for the drop is that they have hit nothing meaningful in their drilling and some institution is getting out. Or maybe it's the reaction to the news about having had to change the mining method, though you would think that if that was material enough to warrant such a sell-off, they would provide some kind of more detailed guidance. The fact that there has been no insider buying would indicate that they have a problem somewhere. Or is it that management was restricted from buying shares in $R due to the $XR placing?
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@zeroboot this wouldn't have anything to possibly do with the divestment of the 23M shares by Stracon? that started back in late Feb.
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@joegreatwhitenorth 112,000 bid just came in at $.44. Get chewed away or bids starting to stack?
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@wiley_coyote Agreed @wannabeinvestor,...the lack of insider buying is very disconcerting.
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@CriticalInvestor Insider buying at this late stage means nothing, they should be loaded up years ago. I would say they are a week late on the ramp up update, usually there should be plenty of news at this stage.
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@wiley_coyote Wouldn't it be nice if gold settled in at around $1275/oz and just stayed there? ha
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@Jagr $R Lots of speculation little substance. Oddo? Markos? Are you not in the know? Or is that the reason for your silence, you know!?! Do I have to call IR?
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@Newton Yes, @Jagr you should call IR.
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@wiley_coyote Like are you effing kidding me? Back to 44 cents. Gold goes up a half percent on the day yet RE goes down 6.5 %. It's gotta be weak and nervous hands closing their positions en masse. What I don't understand is that anyone selling at this level must be doing so at a loss. So what gives? It's a recently opened gold mine folks - think long.
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@MadeOfRubber Looking at level 2, it's small positions pushing this down. It looked promising yesterday but today, not so much. Weak hands for sure, I don't mind picking up another 20-25k but am waiting it out. Not a lot of support, 40 cents has $50k worth. http://cdn.ceo.ca/1ckqpdf-IMG_3214.PNG+
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@Newton With you @wiley_coyote.
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@MadeOfRubber @Newton I think you called 40 cents by end of the week, way to go / good guess
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@Newton Yeah, not happy about it but thanks. Hang in there! Could go lower still, who knows. Fundamentals look good though.
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@MadeOfRubber Never thought I'd see the day in 2017 that $KNT would be trading higher and more consistent then $R. Embarrassment for sure but the silence from mgmt is interesting. Not to mention my email to $R mgmt went unanswered.
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@MadeOfRubber Never thought I'd see the day in 2017 that $KNT would be trading higher and more consistent then $R. Embarrassment for sure but the silence from mgmt is interesting. Not to mention my email to $R mgmt went unanswered.
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wannabeinvestor Picked up some more today, but overall pretty disappointed by lack of communication. Ian Slater left a damn good impression, really surprised by this radio silence.
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@MadeOfRubber Going on a limb, maybe he's as surprised and nothing is wrong. Do they normally release an NR saying that? Maybe wishful thinking on my part. End of quarter is pretty close so I expect something within a month or so.
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@wiley_coyote The company is required by law, if I'm not mistaken, to release any and all information re: "material news". But I'm with you @MadeOfRubber, I have a feeling they have no such news to release. This might be a textbook case of weak hands abandoning a position amid rumors and speculation and the company has simply chosen not to comment. The drop in SP has been dramatic, however, and has been rather painful to watch. I certainly hope there is no significant piece of negative news waiting in the wings...such a one-two punch would be devastating. We'd be talking about a .25 cent SP and it'd be 2+ years before folks would be able to recoup their investment.
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@wiley_coyote My experience has been that some companies will comment when their share price gets hammered, others will not. Case in point is $STAF - an HR co. in the States which has seen their SP go up and down a ton over the past year. On at least one occasion the Pres and CEO of $STAF released a statement saying there was no good reason for the run on their stock and they had no explanation for it. It just depends on the company. Perhaps $R, having their eye on an 8-year mine, decided they are not going to comment on every short term blip. My problem as a long investor is that the drop has been precipitous, almost extraordinary really. So they probably should have said something publicly about it. Just my opinion.
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@Newton Sometimes they release NR saying "no material change in business" but I've seen that more when price is going up a lot quickly. Something about regulators giving special attention to stocks that double in a day on no news. I expect they also release news when price is down by half in a day, but slow bled like this is different story. Again, "it's the markets". Ugh.
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@Newton @wiley_coyote, stock is down 50% from the highs. That's a lot but not unheard of around here. Surprising to see that as they go into production but maybe maybe yuuuge opportunity. FWIW, price is still above base ($0.20 range, iirc) prior to liftoff so could put in "lower low".
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@MadeOfRubber Agree with you both, and perhaps mgmt is stubborn and not commenting as a 'baseline' -- i.e. Nothing is wrong and we won't be duped into an NR for no good reason, so they never need to do it again in the future, a backhanded way to create trust lol. I'm such a dove. I've been watching level 2 a fair bit and there are definitely weak hands. I was expecting a Friday NR with something and got nothing which may actually be promising, so I'm interested in how this trades next week. Cheers gents
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@anonymous poor guys
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@tommy I reached out to the R CEO by email to catch up, partly inspired by the market activity (-6.4% Friday - last at .44). He replied briefly that news is planned for Monday.
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