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anonymous Why Canada has long been great at #fintech http://www.cantechletter.com/2015/08/why-are-canadians-so-good-at-fintech/ $rbc
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anonymous $RBC Innovation Starts With Principles, Not Tech http://onforb.es/1IpVYVj #fintech
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anonymous Three Top #Retirement Realities for Canadian Boomers: 2015 $RBC Retirement Myths & Realities Poll Social time with colleagues missed more than pay cheque Personal time tops travelling in retirement Retirement not always by choice http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/three-top-retirement-realities-for-canadian-boomers-2015-rbc-retirement-myths--realities-poll-520871011.html
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anonymous Corporate Canada: $RBC targets large-company deals to dislodge Wall Street rivals http://t.co/kIZ37lh1CD
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@Oliver #RBC: If #copper remains below $2.10 a pound, #Glencore will lose its investment-grade rating based on 2016 forecasts.
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@nicholaslepan Globe says RBC passes cost of borrowing onto consumers: http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C:RY-2338658&symbol=RY&region=C $RY . Not a big surprise Banks have been offloading costs onto their customers for years in the form of fees on accounts below a certain deposit level.
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anonymous Platinum Group Metals Ltd. Progress continues to be made; mining a bit behind but concentrator outperforming Impact: Neutral First impression PTM hosted a site visit to the Maseve platinum mine located on the Western Limb of the Bushveld in South Africa. While mining is running around one to two months behind plan, an encouraging ramp up performance from the plant has seen the first concentrate trucked to Anglo American Platinum. We expect the mine to continue to encounter teething problems as it ramps up to full capacity of 250koz (4E), but take encouraging signs from progress made to date. Mining running a touch behind: Management noted that in its ramp up of mining Maseve, it has faced challenges in the dip of the reef and with minor faults which require some additional development. Mining will use a variety of methods, including longhole stoping, conventional, hybrid and bord and pillar, and is currently around one to two months behind plan. Focus is on reaching Block 11, which is expected to use a bord and pillar method. Management appear confident they can make up lost time with production flexibility through a 140koz stockpile of lower grade ore. Current production guidance is 116koz (4E) for 2016 and any further challenges to mining progress could place this target under pressure. Concentrator running well: The ramp up of the concentrator has progressed well, with recent mine shut downs (in particular Eland) enabling PTM to secure experienced staff for the ramp up phase. The concentrator is currently running at ~125ktpm, ahead of its 100ktpm nameplate, and management believe the concentrator’s outperformance should continue. Opex in line: Despite capex coming in above plan due to additional expenditure on the tailings facility liner, procurement freeze and escalation, opex is in line or below forecasts for the operational stage. However, as we note above, the delays in production of concentrate have resulted in a delay to revenues and any further slippages could be a challenge. Talking up Waterberg: Drilling continues on Waterberg in the Northern Limb with encouraging results the Super T and Super F zones, which are over 10m thick at grades of ~6g/t and ~3g/t respectively, with opportunities to improve early cash flow generation. Worley Parsons is evaluating Sub-Level Open Stoping for the F Zone and Step Room and Pillar for the T Zone. Next steps include a resource update in March, a PFS by July and a Mining Right application in August. Followed by the commencement of a DFS in September 2016 as well as power/water studies. $PTM update $RBC
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@50YearBeckFan #RBC late trade on $BNK just cost one client on the sell side $826k: 16:30:35 758,200 RBC to RBC Cross
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Goldfinger Interesting comment from $RBC on gold producer hedging: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1bhab4m-RBC_Gold_Supply.png+ Instead of hedging gold prices, producers are locking in their cost structure with hedging oil and currencies. $gold
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@Vaughan @90bigpicture it would seem to me that many of the more traditional investment methodologies and tools are not made for the Juniors. Example: averaging down. When you take a hit on your investment in $RBC or $SU, bringing the average cost down would normally be a prudent decision, but these juniors can go from Hero to Zero - and vice versa - quickly, making averaging down simply throwing good money after bad.
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@Vaughan @kjm, that is the hope but not always the case. Sometimes these options expire and without any warning. Futhermore, observable trends would require sufficient historic data to deduce creat a trend to be observed. When we're dealing with a Large-Cap, such as a $G or $RBC, one can conceive that there exist years if not decades of data. But when the likes of $LIX can go from a sleepy shell trading at .10c - and I use the word trading carefully here - to +$2.00, trends are none existant. Similarly, for those in the community holding $NRN, it is not thanks to vast amounts of observable data.
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@Goldfinger $RBC forecasting $uranium spot price to rise to $80/lb by 2021 as market moves from surplus to deficit: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1bs1pkq-Uranium_Spot_RBC.png+
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@TheGalvanizer From the index where @Goldfinger posted $RBC forecasting $uranium spot price to rise to $80/lb by 2021 as market moves from surplus to deficit: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1bs1pkq-Uranium_Spot_RBC.png+
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@Goldfinger Particularly love the "loaded-coil of synthetically low volatility across asset classes..." comment. $bonds $rates $RBC
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@Goldfinger $RBC essentially saying that $gold can only make new highs this year in a "perfect storm" scenario, thus, upside is limited: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1buai4q-Gold_RBC.png+
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@Goldfinger $RBC sees more upside risks to $gold than downside risks: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c0ck9t-Gold_Risks.png+
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@Goldfinger $RBC sees Trump as a $gold positive. I'm not totally clear on that, although, I do believe he would be a long term gold positive. Short term I could see a shakeout to the downside in the event of a Trump win.
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@Goldfinger Educational graphic from $RBC on $oil & $gas value chain: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c0f0tr-Oil_and_Gas_Value_Chain.png+
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@lukejackson $RBC $BMO and what's another bank stock?
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@newswire Regal Beloit Corporation To Hold Fourth Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call On Tuesday, February 7, 2017 @newswire/regal-beloit-corporation-to-hold-fourth-quarter-2016 $RBC
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@newswire Regal Beloit Corporation Announces Fourth Quarter 2016 Financial Results @newswire/regal-beloit-corporation-announces-fourth-quarter-2016 $RBC
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@Goldfinger This chart of global $oil supply/demand balance moving into undersupply for all of 2017 has been making the rounds: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c9mgrb-Oil_Global_Balance.png+ Of course the market has already priced this in. $RBC sees WTI in mid-$50s for much of 2017.
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@Goldfinger $RBC report on $gold this morning titled "Trumped up, trickle down" you get the picture. Gold futures net speculative length remains very constructive, well below last summer's highs: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1car7gq-Gold_CoT.png+
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@Goldfinger In the realm of useless yet interesting information $RBC has a US$1,300/oz $gold price forecast for 2017, but also doesn't see gold moving above $1,300 in either 2018 or 2019.
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@Goldfinger Via $RBC on $lithium: "We believe lithium is still in the early innings based on: 1) 9-10% demand CAGR expectations over the next decade; 2) finite supply; 3) limited commercial producers and barriers to entry; and 4) lithium makes up ~1% of total Electric Vehicle (EV) cost structure."
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@Goldfinger $RBC on $lithium: "The majority of growth should be driven by demand for lithium-ion batteries, most notably Electric Vehicles (EVs), which we anticipate to grow at a 20-30% CAGR over the next 10 years."
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@Goldfinger Interesting valuation method by $RBC, granted valuing a company like $TSLA is excruciatingly difficult ~~~> "20x 2020E P/E valuation (discounted back at 15%)."
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@Goldfinger Following an earnings report which disappointed the street $RBC hiked its $TSLA price target from US$245 to US$314. Primary basis for target increase is increased confidence in Model 3 ramp up to limited production during the summer and better gross margin visibility. Model 3 production will ramp to >5,000/week "at some point" in 4Q17 and 10,000/week "at some point" in 2018. $lithium
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@Goldfinger $RBC on $uranium: "In the term market, two transactions involving deliveries over the 2020-2027 period are reported this week. A non-US utility has issued an RFP for 300 tU as UF6 for delivery in January 2018; offers are due to the utility on April 11. A US utility continues to evaluate offers for delivery of approximately 1,800 tU of conversion contained in UF6 over the 2023-2030 time frame, although the utility has indicated it could accept up to 3,100 tU of conversion over the period. A non-US utility continues to evaluate offers for up to 3,000 tU of conversion for delivery in the 2021-2030 period."
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@Goldfinger $RBC on $TSLA valuation model (RBC has $314 price target on TSLA): "We assume a 15% WACC and an 8x exit EBITDA multiple for our DCF valuation. Our valuation is sensitive to our assumptions. Every 100bps to our discount rate assumption and every turn on the terminal EBITDA multiple is worth about $20/share to our valuation." RBC gets to $7.575 billion in free cash flow for TSLA by 2025 based upon ~1.5 million vehicle deliveries that year: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1ccjtcr-TSLA_DCF.png+ And RBC admits "Our model is a work in progress...."
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@Goldfinger Funny note about yesterday's market action from $RBC: "More "lottery ticket" mode than anything else, as evidenced by GDXJ (Jr Gold Miners ETF) finishing +11.5% higher on the day yesterday--a +3.1 SD-move." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-16/rbc-fed-now-forced-walk-back-markets-incorrect-dovish-interpretation The $GDXJ rally was "lottery ticket" mode from portfolio managers...
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@Goldfinger $RBC note on $ABX: "We believe the market is pricing in expectations that Barrick pursues internal development projects that meet its internal return hurdles, rather than seek external M&A opportunities to acquire producing mines or reserves." $gold
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@Goldfinger $RBC on $ABX valuation: "Our 1.2x NAV is at a 7% discount rate and is equivalent to ~1.0x NAV using a 5% discount rate. Our 18.0x EV/3-year average forward Adj.CF multiple is equivalent to an 11x forward P/CF multiple. Upside scenario Our upside valuation of $32.00 is based on our upside flat gold price scenario of $1,500/oz, all other operating/financial assumptions and valuation multiples held constant. Downside scenario Our downside valuation of $14.00 is based on our downside flat gold price scenario of $1,100/oz, all other operating/ financial assumptions and valuation multiples held constant."
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@Goldfinger $RBC not being very creative with its precious metals price forecasts, sees $gold at US$1,300 for the next four years?... http://cdn.ceo.ca/1ce5cvd-RBC_metal_price_forecasts.png+ $palladium $platinum $silver
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@Goldfinger $RBC on $NG: Progressing toward receipt of the final EIS for the Donlin Gold project in Alaska (50% NG/50% $ABX) in early 2018. NG has responded to more than 100 requests for additional information and The US Army Corps of Engineers expects the final EIS to be published in early 2018, consistent with the commentary previously provided in NovaGold's year-end 2016 report. NovaGold continues to advance the processes for other key permits and approvals. Company ended Q1 with $98 million in cash and short term deposits, expects $23 million cash burn during 2017. $gold
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@Goldfinger "The key bright spot in the complex continues to be US crude exports. Shipments have averaged some 350 kb/d higher over the past three months compared to the same period last year. Since December, almost 17 mb have been removed from the US storage system in the form of exports. Put another way, exports have almost completely offset the incremental stock builds attributed to the increase in imports." $RBC on $oil
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@Goldfinger "typically, politicians' currency comments have no lasting effect" - $RBC on $gold: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cevlg4-RBC_Gold_4.13.2017.png+
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@Goldfinger $RBC on $DPM: "We view Q1/17 production results as positive, with production at Chelopech of 46.4Koz Au and 8.2MMlbs Cu coming in well ahead of our estimate of 39Koz Au and 7.7MMlbs Cu. Near term production is expected to be higher than expected as a result of mining sequence. Concentrate production at the Tsumeb smelter of 42kt was above our estimate of 38kt and is expected to rise going forward following a maintenance shutdown in the quarter. Construction at Krumovgrad is also on track, with first concrete scheduled to be poured in April."
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@Goldfinger Share of foreign buyer involvement in residential transactions: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cfhj6v-Vancouver_Foreign_Buyers.png+ Via $RBC $Housing $Vancouver
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@Goldfinger $RBC on $BTO: "We view the strong production results as positive for the shares. B2Gold reported consolidated gold production for Q1 of 132,736 oz, above our estimate of 129,018 oz. Consolidated gold revenue in the period was $146.3 million on sales of 119,937 oz at an average price of $1,219/oz. B2Gold reported that the Fekola Project remains 3 months ahead of schedule and on budget with an expected start date of October 1, 2017. Strong Q1 production results were due to higher than expected production from the Company’s Masbate, Otijikoto and La Libertad mines. B2Gold reiterated its production guidance of 545,000-595,00 oz for the year, including pre-commercial production from Fekola of between 45,000-55,000 oz."
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@Goldfinger $RBC calling for a "trickle down" in $gold: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cfi30t-Gold_Trickle_Down.png+
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@Goldfinger Managed money net long in commodity futures (28 major commodity futures) sort of in the middle of the longer term range (neutral territory) as total open interest is at record levels: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cfi3ep-Managed_Money_Futures_Positioning_4.20.2017.png+ via $RBC Tells me there is a lot of producer hedging going on, and a decent sized spec short interest out there as well. $copper $gold $oil $silver
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@Goldfinger Average reserve life of tier 1&2 North American $gold producers has fallen from 15.3 years at the end of 2012 to 10.6 years at the end of 2016: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cfse8f-Average_Reserve_Life.png+ Via $RBC
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@Goldfinger Tier 1&2 North American $gold producer cost structure and cash margin: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cfsed2-Gold_producer_cost_structure.png+ Via $RBC
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@Goldfinger The Virus is spreading, RBC $RY breaking lower: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cg468p-RY_Daily_4.27.2017.png+ Lots of bag holders, errr buyers, from Jan/Feb/Mar caught in this one. Time for some puking.
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@Goldfinger $RBC on Freeport strike situation: 1. The strike is not expected to have a significant impact on near-term $copper/ $gold production and our understanding is that Grasberg has not been completely shut down. 2. We do not expect an immediate impact on Q2/17 sales as FCX is shipping Cu-Au concentrate inventories that were built up in Q1/17. $FCX has also been ramping up Q2/17 production well before the strike started, after receipt of their 6-month export permit. 3. FCX is currently in talks with the union to get employees to return to work. We note that only 12,000 workers out of a total of 30,000 workers are unionized, with the balance employed by various contractors.
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@Goldfinger $RBC with a note this morning making the case for a higher political risk premium in crude $oil due to $Saudi and $Iran tensions: "The rise of MBS will also likely mean even more hawkish foreign policy moves from Saudi Arabia and more intensified efforts to confront Iran. Under MBS’s watch the Kingdom has launched a costly war in Yemen and spearheaded a surprise blockade of fellow GCC member Qatar. The key question is what comes next in this quest to counter Iranian influence? Is the Qatar blockade simply the opening act in a broader anti-Iranian offensive? Having President Trump in the White House probably means that MBS will encounter minimal push-back from Washington and a far freer hand to police his neighborhood. Hence we contend that region could witness more near-term volatility and heightened risk of military confrontation. The political risk premium may therefore be set to stage a comeback."
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