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@Goldfinger Nothing new there anon, Russia has been tracking US ships all over the globe for the last two years. Of course $China is going to monitor what's going on in its backyard.
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@MiningBookGuy Super Pit deal falls over http://www.mining-journal.com/world/australia/super-pit-deal-falls-over/ "Chinese group Shandong Tyan Home Co (CH:600807) has pulled out of a proposed A$1.3 billion (US$980 million) offer on Barrick Gold’s (US:ABX) 50% stake in the Kalgoorlie Super Pit in Western Australia." $ABX #Shandong #gold #China #Kalgoorlie #SuperPit #Australia #MiningJournal
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@Goldfinger $China knows US has no good options on NK so they are just playing games. Problem China will eventually have (along with rest of world) is NK will build more nukes and better missiles.
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@mike Tim Seymour‏Verified account @timseymour 3h3 hours ago #China leaning on leveraged loans and this is hammering #Ore and Coal met coal mkts..
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@MiningBookGuy green anon - i used to think #China was becoming this dominating power. i now believe they are fragile, but could still surprise to the upside. On the other hand, I think #Japan is way, way underrated! they are picked on constantly, despite having an incredible Navy and being far more wealthy per capita than the Chinese. (and importantly, more unified) Just comparing these 2 because their in the same region, and the consensus is "China strong", "Japan weak" #geopolitics
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@MiningBookGuy anon - we'll see...i 'hope' for 'world peace'...but 'hope' is just as dangerous in the real world as it is in the junior sector! i fully expect various countries to get 'sized up' for various strengths/weaknesses soon. some countries that are considered weak (like #Japan and #France) could be far stronger than expected, primarily because of organized military. #China is the main target for 'overrated'...but #Germany might fit there too. #demographics are important, but who cares when the 'crisis' is right on the doorstep? what we care about then is who is 'weak' because of lack of 'strategic resources', dependency on global trade, 'strength of military', etc. and i'm just repeating some stuff i've read and processed recently. i don't want to go into more detail right now, but wanted to 'change-up' the #index contributions a bit for fun. can pick up the conversation another time! #geopolitics
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@Goldfinger Economic surprise indices, US the worst while $China is strongest: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cgc6pg-IMG_6444.JPG+
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@Goldfinger Another soft number out of $China tonight confirming weakening trend we've seen for the last month: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cgfq21-IMG_6483.JPG+
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@Goldfinger "The Chinese equity market is so manipulated, and so volatile. If you made me make a bet on the Chinese market I would be bearish." ~ #Gundlach $China
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@MiningBookGuy @Stocksluice - i'm pretty much in agreement with your thoughts. I'm not sure if #Russia and #China will become full-on allies because of this. But #CentralBanks #PhysicalGold is a key overlap for various countries that COULD be "the story" of the next ~5 years or so, with #China / #Russia being a key part of the story
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@Goldfinger Cryptocurrencies near US$40 billion total market cap and they're not even close to the 'euphoria' or 'acceptance' stages. That's scary to think about how much higher these things could rise if we saw a wider participation. $China is clearly the main driver and the vast majority of North Americans are clueless as to how strong the demand is in China.
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@Goldfinger @mike what we are seeing across commodities this week would confirm that "all hell is about to break loose" in $China...
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@Leon $RIO.L CEO Jean-Sebastian Jacques notes Q1 growth in #China unexpectedly picked up to 6.9% for the first back-to-back acceleration in seven years, as industrial output advanced and factory prices surged. Rio Tinto sees the restructuring in China's steel industry as very positive and with "great opportunities for Rio as remaining mills move to higher quality imported ore." $FMG.AX #iron-ore www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-04/china-s-economy-shaping-up-for-positive-2018-rio-tinto-ceo-says
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@Excelsior #Copper price: Plunge in #China imports wipes out 2017 gains Frik Els | 14 minutes ago http://www.mining.com/copper-price-plunge-china-imports-wipes-2017-gains/
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@MiningBookGuy “This morning we stopped our operations underground” http://www.mining-journal.com/world/africa/this-morning-we-stopped-our-operations-underground/ "The Ghana government has reportedly suspended Shaanxi Mining Company Ghana’s gold operations in the country’s north-east after the latest in a series of mining deaths in recent years." #Ghana #gold #China ~AUfrica #miningjournal #index
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@Goldfinger "... the elasticity of China’s oil demand is less pronounced today than in years past." http://cdn.ceo.ca/1ch9ddm-Oil_RBC_5.11.2017.png+ $China $oil
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@Goldfinger $China PPI highly correlated to Brent Crude $Oil: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1ch9o71-IMG_6591.JPG+
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@Goldfinger "With all things considered: long-term, $China is looking to rein in misallocation of resources vis-à-vis bad debt and to stimulate more consumption as it tries to shift its behemoth economy from an export-driven one to an import-driven one." https://macro-man.blogspot.com/2017/05/forget-it-jake-its-chinajeff-gundlach.html
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@MiningBookGuy Chinese VP Li Yuanchao concludes Senegal visit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOKAvM13BK4+ #Senegal #China #infrastructure ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy Commercial rail begins service from Addis Ababa to Dire Dawa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyGoZzac44o+ #Ethiopia #Djibouti #RailRoad #infrastructure #EastAfrica #Africa ~AUfrica #China - funded rail...keep in mind most of the #Africa videos I post are from Chinese TV :P But it's a whole lot better than Western-coverage of Africa!
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@Excelsior #Korelin Economics Report - Weekend Show - Sat 13 May, 2017 #GOLD and #COMMODITIES Pullback From US and International Drivers "This week we started to see a turn around in the #PreciousMetals and commodities in general. On this week’s show we take a close look at why this pullback in commodities happened from both a domestic and international perspective." "Over the past month money has been flowing out of #US equity ETFs and into #EU and #EM funds. This has not had a big impact on the US equity markets but by the end of the week we started to see a slow rollover. This helped provide a small pop for the metals from an oversold territory and looks to continue. The question is, how long and how high?" >> Segment 1 & 2: In the first two segments I am joined by Dan Oliver, Founder of Myrmikan Capital. Dan is a great at recapping markets moves dating back hundreds of years for #metals and #commodities. In the first segment we discuss the current commodities pullback and compare the situation back in the late 1920s. In the second segment we look at the relationship between #inflation and monetary debasement. > Segment 3: Chris Martenson joins me to dive into #China and discuss the deleveraging that is underway and the markets and economies that could be impacted by a China pullback. > Segment 4: Fund Manager Dana Lyons take a look at international markets where we have seen large flows of money into #ETFs over the past month. >> Segment 5 & 6: Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at CPM Group, joins me for the first two segments of the second hour. Both segments focus on #gold and #commodities but in the first segment we look at the factors in the #US driving commodities. In the second segment we look again at #China and #India in terms of gold demand. > Segment 7: #BrentCook, Founder of Exploration Insights, shares his outlook on the $GDXJ rebalancing as well as a few #zinc companies they are following in his newsletter. > Segment 8: A recap of the week in #US #equities and the #metals. We are seeing turn and bounce from oversold territory. http://www.kereport.com/2017/05/13/gold-commodities-pullback-international-drivers/
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@MiningBookGuy @Goldfinger @hunter - thanks for sharing and commenting on the next #TheMacroTourist article. The whole VIX thing is hard for me to wrap my head around, but clearly important to follow in the coming weeks/months. I'll just add that I'm not at all certain that #Japan will be 'ground zero for a real market catastrophe'. There are just so many shenanigans going on around the world, and I'm skeptical of the repeated calls that #Japan is clearly the 'most likely' country for catastrophe. I am still surprised by the bullishness around #China (i keep seeing these #OneBeltOneRoad posts on twitter, like it symbolizes 'everything is amazing' and they will dominate'). And I also think #Europe has an inherent fragility that is much deeper than a country like #Japan. All of these areas and more have potential to be 'ground zero' IMO. Just thought I'd add my 2 cents on it, and I'm not trying to bet/predict on where the crisis starts.
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@Goldfinger "Citi’s EM strategists think that the recent macro-prudential tightening in China could possibly contribute to more negative spillovers in the coming months." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-14/citi-urges-caution-ahead-four-major-chinese-indicators-are-staring-wave-red-flags $China $IronOre
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@MiningBookGuy @NickZed - you can see some #Macro tagged discussion in that room (kind of kickstarted by @JT, was a great idea! https://ceo.ca/macro?0601a682943c ) the #China #gold #CentralBanks question is a big one. While there's a chance there could be a 'new monetary norm' in the near future, one could also look at it simply as a #hedge, just like us as individuals. In any case, I 100% believe that #China is under-reporting their #gold holdings ( #PhysicalGold ), while #Russia is likely reporting accurately (as both countries are accumulating simultaneously on a regular basis). So much more to say...but will leave it at that for now, and include an interesting segment from the #Korelin Weekend Report shared earlier (thanks @Excelsior!). this is segment 6 from Jeff Christian, with his thoughts on #China #India #PhysicalGold demand: http://www.kereport.com/wp-content/uploads/0513-2-2.mp3
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@Goldfinger $SINA up nearly 50% since mid-April: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1chmc32-SINA_Daily_5.16.2017.png+ $China internet space getting some attention. $BABA $BIDU $SOHU
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@DanO #China's March #copper demand up 22% on real estate support https://goo.gl/oRLyOG
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@Goldfinger $China yield curve inverting: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1chrfse-IMG_6646.JPG+
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@lukejackson #Commodity news story #China: #Lithium supply in urgent need for #EV #auto sector. 20% price increase forecast 2017 $LIX
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@MiningBookGuy Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi heads to Africa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZyIIZXpb7g+ #China #Africa ~AUfrica "The Chinese Foreign Minister has embarked on a trip to Africa. The five-day visit will see him tour #Mauritania, #CapeVerde, #Mali and Cote d'Ivoire ( #IvoryCoast ). This is Wang Yi's second trip to the continent this year. The first was in January, where he toured #Madagascar, #Zambia, #Tanzania, the Republic of Congo ( #CongoBrazzaville ) and #Nigeria. The visits are aimed at boosting Sino-African relations. They follow the recent conclusion of the One Belt, One Road Forum in Beijing ( #OneBeltOneRoad ). The initiative plays a vital role in developing African #infrastructure and economies. It also complements the African Union's Agenda 2063, which aims to integrate the continent and to develop sustainable economies."
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@MiningBookGuy Malian prime minister hails China's role in international affairs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAREinmwrNM+ #Mali #China #infrastructure ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy Chinese foreign minister vows support to Cote d'Ivoire https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCVWgB3s_po+ #IvoryCoast #China ~AUfrica
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@Goldfinger "Given China’s role in global credit expansion and commodity demand, it is clear how and why China is so important to emerging markets, and probably a systemic risk. In the past three years we’ve also seen the delta of Chinese demand to EM financial stability and growth. But the credit data shows nothing much has changed!! The stress, vol, capital outflows and FX deval of 2014-2016 could be better defined as a breather more than any significant deleveraging." https://macro-man.blogspot.com/2017/06/china-risk-credit-booms-and-hedges.html $China $commodities
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@Goldfinger Macro Man is one of my top 3 favorite bloggers, another goodie from him on $China and the "Xi Trade" https://macro-man.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-trump-trade-is-deadall-hail-xi-trade.html $Copper
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@Goldfinger Global credit impulse in steep downtrend according to UBS: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1ck0fsb-IMG_6927.JPG+ $China
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@Goldfinger Kyle Bass still doesn't understand why he's getting smoked in China: http://www.businessinsider.com/kyle-bass-losing-yuan-short-2017-6 $China
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@MiningBookGuy @JamesKwantes - whoa! the #Polyus website gives me vertigo if i scroll down really quickly on the homepage. But yes, that is a good map in the slides. I do wonder about #Russia #Mongolia relationship, and how it will change in the coming years. #Mongolia does plenty of trade with #China, not sure if they do as much with #Russia right now. All of these things can change in surprising ways, I will try to monitor a bit more closely.
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@MiningBookGuy @FundamentalAnalysis - thanks for 1st-hand thoughts! Do you think #Mongolia has balanced relationship with #China and #Russia? It's possible they 'like' the Russians better right now, I really don't know.
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@Goldfinger After news that South Korea shut down a nuclear reactor today here are some stats on $China and its nuclear power plans via Haywood: "China will easily replace what is lost by Korea: o China’s reactor fleet units includes: 36 Operating, 21 Under Construction, 41 Planned, 174 Proposed o China’s ‘proposed’ reactors jumped by 35 units in April of this year, which alone replaces the loss of the entire Korean fleet. o Since Fukushima (March 2011, Japanese Earthquake / Tsunami) China has grown its operating reactor fleet 177% (from 13 units to 36), and has increased its total pipeline from 200 units to 272 units (36%)" $CCJ $CCO $GXU $NXE $uranium $URA
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@Goldfinger "...there has been an avalanche of capital leaving $China looking for a safe destination with stable rule of law. Canada certainly fits the mold."
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@Allan Sounds good to me: Michael Langford‏ @ML_SuperNinja #Lithium bull run to accelerate Jul-Sep 2017. Many new #China #battery plants starting have not contracted supply. https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-06-22/electric-car-demand-boosts-companies-linked-to-lithium-batteries
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