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PamplonaTrader Validea / John Reese ↗ @GuruInvestor Fed Rate Hike Could Cause Market “Accident” Says DoubleLine Exec http://theguruinvestor.com/2015/11/24/fed-rate-hike-could-cause-market-accident-says-doubleline-exec/ #gundlach
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anonymous #Gundlach says 'never just one cockroach' in any kind of credit meltdown http://www.reuters.com/article/us-investing-gundlach-idUSKBN0TU2MC20151211
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@Newton That #Gundlach is sharp cookie! Good sign if your on side with him @Goldfinger! 10 year to before negative rates in USA? : )
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@Goldfinger Italy, Switzerland, and Spain markets were down last year - no accident they are countries experiencing deflation. $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "I expect $oil to vacillate between mid-$40s and high $50s." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "I'm surprised that conversation about global trade reduction hasn't been more prominent." $Gundlach regarding $Trump
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@Goldfinger "Analysts are expecting S&P earnings to rise 20% in 2017, that's a very aggressive forecast and obviously analysts are usually more aggressive at the beginning of the year." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "I'm not a dollar bull because of a quote from $Trump, 'it sounds better to have a strong dollar than it actually is.' " $Gundlach "I'm not a dollar bull, but i'm not a dollar bear" $gold
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@Goldfinger "S&P 500 is best performing major world stock market since the March 2009 bottom." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "This is a good time to peel off some of your US stock holdings and buy the Indian market." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger A powerful secular demographic trend chart from $Gundlach: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c7akuc-Children_earnings.png+
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@Goldfinger U.S. total debt is right back up to peak levels: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c7al34-US_Total_Debt.png+ $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger $Gundlach contemplating implications of higher interest rates, debt service ratios will rise and high levels of debt will become a larger problem.
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@Goldfinger "We may get a strange thing of taxes being cut and increased infrastructure spending, and a build out of the military. This will lead to larger deficits which is obviously unhealthy longer term....With the Trump administration I think we're looking at $1 trillion+ deficits." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "Infrastructure building will take some time." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "I think we get a short term rally bonds and indeed that rally is underway, I think we have more room to go." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger Forecast of U.S. government spending and revenue: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c7alm6-Trump_spending_revenue.png+ $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "7 of last 8 two term Presidents have handed their successor a recession." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "Considering that less than half of those who voted, voted for $Trump it's a bit surprising that consumer optimism is so high....clearly optimism is infectious." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "Recession doesn't seem to be in the cards." $Gundlach
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@PamplonaTrader Thanks for the #gundlach updates
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@Goldfinger "Commodities have put in a multi-decade bottom. I have recommended investors peel off some US stock exposure and put it in $commodities." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "I have advocated a permanent position in $gold since the 1990s." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger Chart of 10-year breakeven and $copper: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c7am55-Copper_inflation.png+ Rising inflation expectations and rising copper price go hand in hand. $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "Deflation in $Europe doesn't look like it's happening anymore...$German CPI looks like it's about to print a 2.5%." http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c7amhh-German_CPI.png+ $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger The market has priced in rising inflation expectations and bid up the number of TIP exchange traded fund shares outstanding: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c7amvv-Breakevens.png+ http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c7an14-TIPS_shares_outstanding.png+ $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger $Copper-$Gold ratio highly correlated with US 10-year Treasury note yield: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c7anav-Copper_Gold_Ratio.png+ $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger $Gundlach says this looks like a double-top to him in the chart of the S&P 500 relative to emerging markets: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c7aohm-SPX_EM.png+ Looks like a good time to rotate out of U.S. into EM
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@Goldfinger "Tax cuts are the best reason to be bullish on stocks." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "If interest rates are rising then P/E ratios should be falling with all other things being equal." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "The debt burden is already harming economic growth and if we ramp it up further it's not going to be good long term." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger "Demographics are slowing economic growth, and robots aren't going away. You can't change the robots, you can't change the demographics....slowing global trade is going to enter the narrative as we move past the inauguration." $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger $Gundlach is pretty cautious on the $dollar and neutral to mildly bearish on US equities. Short term bullish on bonds, and quite bullish on $commodities. Remains bullish on $gold although he admits he became less bullish after $Trump election win.
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@Goldfinger And that wraps it up! Thanks for tuning in. $Gundlach
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@Goldfinger One more comment from $Gundlach; he sees 3% as the big level on the 10-year UST note, above 3% and the 30+ year bond bull market is over. That's a big statement. 10-year note ended today at 2.38% yield. $bonds
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@Floxl On another note : @Goldfinger One more comment from $Gundlach; he sees 3% as the big level on the 10-year UST note, above 3% and the 30+ year bond bull market is over. That's a big statement. 10-year note ended today at 2.38% yield. SO I have been reading this statement a lot. When we talk about a 30 year bull market in bonds, we are talking about a bull market in price which means the yield has been falling consistently right? So when we say, the bull market is going to be over, doesn't that mean that the yields are going to rise which is ultimatly going to be bad for gold?
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@Goldfinger I'll be live chatting $Gundlach investor presentation, beginning now. $gold $oil $SPY
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Floxl Couldn't comment about newsletter writers, however I can imagine them being useful for idea generation. (Much easiar then going through companies one by one to generate ideas). In the ultra long term if $gundlach's theory holds and yields rise substantially it could be bad for gold. However we also need to consider the level of inflation. As I've mentioned before everyone talks of booms and busts. There are long drawn out echo moments where prices stay neutral. Given the relatively high debt levels around the world and very low inflation, interest rates and thus yields CANNOT normalise not yet at least. We need much higher inflation, for bond yields and thus interest rates to rise. Higher inflation can be good for gold especially if it leads to low or negative real interest rates. In the long term gold is like a currency, and is a store of value, and thus follows inflation. Our monetary system is designed to have inflation, so we can inflate away our debts and the key for central bankers these days is to have interest rates just slightly below inflation rates. Gold however isn't just driven by real interest rates, in fact if you look at all the factors that have affected gold, another less talked about factor is confidence. If confidence breaks gold will rise substantially. Broken confidence leads to higher inflation and higher interest rates.....what we saw in the 70s, until volcker/kissinger rushed in and sorted it out. I think Ray dalio compared to the other hedge fund managers is much more knowledgeable about economic history and our monetary system. He advises a bit of gold despite talking about the end of the bond bull market like some of the other hedge fund managers.
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@racker @goldfinger, thanks for yesterday's $Gundlach updates
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@Goldfinger $Gundlach insinuates that Bill Gross is a 'second-tier' bond manager: http://www.businessinsider.com/gundlach-gross-end-of-bond-bull-market-2017-1 He's not focused on the correct yield level on the 10-year UST lol
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