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CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
@NewtonA bit more #gas commentary here. This time an excerpt from #haywood report http://cdn.ceo.ca/1buql3d-IMG_20160929_104913.png+ see how the 2016 storage numbers have been at the top of the historical range all year? That is a big deal, partly driven by "preparation" for export facilities coming online. Mainly driven by lack of winter last year. What would take same storage numbers to bottom end of range next year or beyond? Imagine a serious winter and summer back-back, and then big pick up in nattie exports from USA. Hello bullish case! #naturalGas#gas.
@NewtonSome interesting things happening in #naturalgas#gas here today. A little something something about winter months leading a bounce on volume after weekend news flow was bearish short-term? Very interesting in terms of interplay between short/long-term forces in the market. Sometimes they conflict, sometimes they coexist peacefully and good opportunities can arise in either case.
@CJStradingGreat to publish a new article on #naturalgas that looks back to the #polarvortex. If you've seen large amount of volatility in prices recently then you may have some idea of what's coming! : )
@NewtonHey @CJStrading glad you could join the site after me encouraging you to do it for months! Looks like you've got some good potential for lots of quality content. Share your work here with your friends in the #gas world -- pretty sure we could use more commentary on #naturalgas around here : )
@NewtonI'm with you @Highheat! Go #gas go! Big moves and more to come. #naturalGas is great for #volatility. For those not trading #futures, there are #options on #LeveragedETF$hnu and $hnd. Put options on $hnd gives upside exposure to gas on several counts. Put options on leveraged etf interesting because of their "volatility decay" (rebalancing causes tracking error over time). Put option on bear etf when you're bullish on underlying. Also,puts on both bull and bear etfs are interesting for isolating decay...
@XrivaI highly recommend #RVTV video by Gregor McDonald ( Oct 20th ). He discusses #naturalgas but at the 7 minute mark ( from end ) discusses #Solar#PV increasingly displacing / disrupting other power generators.
@Excelsior#NaturalGas as a Global Commodity
Jude Clemente – NOV 23, 2016
“The #US became a net gas exporter just a few weeks ago, but exports to #Canada have actually been falling. Unlike still developing #Mexico, Canada doesn’t have huge incremental #gas needs, explaining why it’s so critical for Canada’s gas industry to have access to global markets via #LNG. Interestingly, while Mexico is overdependent at 60%, natural gas accounts for just 10% of Canada’s #power generation.
But, U.S. #shale#gas will continue to be very competitive into eastern Canada as new pipeline infrastructure gets built, such as the Rover and Nexus routes which will take Marcellus and Utica gas to southern Ontario’s Dawn hub. Both are expected to have completed phases next year.
One interesting market to watch will be how rising #oil prices impact #OilSands development in #Alberta and thus Canadian gas demand. Mining and in situ oil sands activity utilize gas for process heat and to upgrade bitumen to synthetic crude. #Gas utilized in the business is expected to double to around 5.2 Bcf/d by 2030…”
@Newton@Highheat was looking at10-year forward curves for #gas over past few years. Curve has collapsed so much. Record low levels across 10 year horizon and record flatness. Market looks very dead based on that chart. But there is so much more going on! Bullish push from export facilities coming online, mixed effects of fracking (net bullish imo as high yield markets break and ability to bring back online is impaired), and bearish effects of renewables make it not a slam dunk for extended rally in gas. But with some cold weather? ... get ready! #NaturalGas to $5+
@NewtonTo answer your question there @lukejacksonhttps://ceo.ca/efr?1033cc1ea59f I think "wildly bullish" may be fair. #uranium substitute #naturalgas doubling means it's less attractive as a substitute, hence more #uranium demand. Bankruptcies for uranium miners as hedges come off in low price environment means less supply. Sprinkle in new sources of inelastic global demand and seems pretty bullish... what could go wrong?
@NewtonGreat talk by #GregorMacdonald from http://www.terrajoule.us/ on #naturalgas for #realvision recently. He comes on quarterly and does great deep dive on particular topic. Prior one was "cost declines in #solar". Absolutely stunning analysis of engineering progress and economic implications. Recent one was on #bullish case for #gas here now, but long-term switch into a "dependency market" for gas, rather than a "growth market". Reason being displacement of gas by solar power (marginal unit electricity demand will be served by solar). Points to coal as example of dependency market today -- still widely used, but limited growth. Big implications for price action. Dependency markets can see prices spike to bring forward production, but not really bull market trends like seen with growing use of commodity. All in all, super interesting contrast of wildly bullish setup for gas next couple years and bearish case starting 3 years out. Some big calls and big ideas behind his work there. Gregor has a #newsletter, BTW. He mentioned that next talk on #realvisiontv may be about solar, again. I certainly want to hear more about negative prices for electricity seen in #Germany and #California!
@nicholaslepanIn a note to clients today, Haywood Securities sees near term volatility but fundamental support for oil and natural gas prices. OPEC and non-OPEC oil production cuts are the most important near term factor. Haywood sees WTI in the $50 to $60 bbl range in 2017 and increasing to $65/bbl in 2018. For natural gas prices, Haywood sees fundamentals supporting Henry Hub prices in the $3 to $3.50 range in 2017 and 2018. Contact your local Haywood representative for a full copy of the report. #oil#energy#naturalgas#haywood
@newswireIndonesia LNG Market to Surpass 5.9 MMT by 2025: Says TechSci Research @newswire/indonesia-lng-market-to-surpass-59-mmt-by-2025-says Indonesia produced around 16.20 MMT of LNG in 2015, out of which 14 MMT was exported and remaining 2.2 MMT was consumed in the domestic market. However, production of dry natural gas declined in the country at a CAGR of 2.62% during 2010-2015. Furthermore, demand for LNG in the country is continuously rising owing to growing demand from industrial and power sector, coupled with commissioning of three gas fired power projects in the Java region, which have a capacity of 2.5 GW. #Indonesia#naturalgas
@ExcelsiorThe Greatest Prize In All History – (Again)
by @Gianni on February 12, 2017 - [that last passage really sums it up]
“The average #electricvehicle has 100 kilograms of #copper. When a 200 MW wind park is constructed, it requires on average 5 tonnes of copper per MW, whereas conventional power generation – #thermalcoal, #naturalgas, #nuclear – requires 1 tonne per MW. The average American household has ~400 pounds of copper – that has remained unusually static for decades. So what happens in the house where Musk did his #solar roof demonstration. The exact maths have yet to be completed, yet a pencil and paper are not essential for a basic understanding. Between the home, solar roof, #batteries and one #EV, there would easily be in excess of 1,000 pounds of copper in an energy self-sufficient dwelling. The potential for: #copper, #lithium, #cobalt, #nickel, and others, is mind boggling.”
@nicholaslepanAccording to Haywood $PNE PineCliff Energy, has some serious debt that they are dealing with, they did reduce 80% of it this year, and also weakening natural gas prices are a pressure. Haywood is maintaining their buy rating and a price target of $1.85 and is seeing some free cash flow returning to shareholders in 2017. #energy#naturalgas#haywood
Geothermal is a bet against Nat gasIf you are investing in electric you should be betting against #naturalgas$ora has been pricing atot of their electric based on natural gas and it is the price to beat for new plants. Nuclear has also been mentioning Nat gas when they decide to close plants. The good news would be that Nat gas won't stay cheap and there is new technology being developed for geothermal and $nuclear so that prices should go down relative to nat gas.
@ExcelsiorAnti-Nuke Dogma Trumps Common Sense On #Nuclear Energy
James Conca , Contributor – FEB 22, 2017
“The report claims #wind and #solar prices have fallen dramatically, and rightly so, but then fails to mention they still cost more than existing power plants that have two or three times their lifespan. They also fail to tell the reader that #naturalgas or #hydropower is necessary to backup #wind and #solar, at an unknown cost, something #California is struggling with as their renewables approach 30%.”
All other legitimate reports disagree with the McCullough analysis, showing instead that this strategy of replacing Columbia Generating Station with #renewables and #gas would lose ratepayers about $1.6 billion over the next 20 years and put an extra 60 million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere (IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, EIA, BPA) while laying off a thousand workers and three thousand more that depend on them….”
“It does seem foolish to close a power plant 25 years ahead of schedule when it’s producing energy at a price of 4.2¢/kWh, 93% of the time with only 17 gCO2/kWh, based solely on the hope that gas prices will not increase for 20 years. And Columbia Generating Station’s price can’t go up much in the next 20 years since their Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) recently signed with Bonneville Power Administration is set at between 4.7 and 5.2¢/kWh.”
@ExcelsiorLess #nuclear energy has meant higher costs, less clean energy overall and more deaths
February 25, 2017
Michael Shellenberger explains how less nuclear energy has meant higher costs and less clean energy overall.
* #USA has shutdown Enuclear plants prematurely because of lower #naturalgas costs
* this has increased emissions of CO2 and air pollution
* Overall energy costs have increased in the #USA which correlate with lower #nuclear energy mix
* #Germany has 6 times more carbon intensive energy than France
* Germany shutdown nuclear energy and now is even more reliant on coal and fossil fuel
* #France uses 80% nuclear power for electricity
* #France has half the cost of electricity compared to #Germany
* the global decline in #nuclear power (-7.5% of energy mix) has not been replaced by solar and wind (4.5%)
* the global decline in #nuclear (most of #Japan nuclear shutdown, #Germany shutdown, some early shutdowns in #USA and #Europe) has not been made up by the build in China and Asia and appears like future Europe and USA shutdowns (150 GW) will made up by new nuclear in #China and #India and #Asia through 2030.”
@ExcelsiorHow Deadly Is Your Kilowatt? We Rank The Killer #Energy Sources
“For coal, oil and biomass, it is carbon particulates resulting from burning that cause upper respiratory distress, kind of a second-hand black lung. Our lungs just don’t like burnt carbonaceous particulates, whether from coal or wood or manure or pellets or cigarettes. The actual numbers of deaths in China from coal use exceeded 300,000 last year since they have ramped up coal so fast in the last decade and they usually do not install exhaust scrubbers. The impact on their health care system has been significant in not just deaths, but in non-lethal health effects and lost days of work.”
**Energy Source Mortality Rate (deaths/trillionkWhr)
#Coal – global average 100,000 (41% global electricity)
#Coal – China 170,000 (75% China’s electricity)
#Coal – U.S. 10,000 (32% U.S. electricity)
#Oil 36,000 (33% of energy, 8% of electricity)
#NaturalGas 4,000 (22% global electricity)
#Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% global energy)
#Solar (rooftop) 440 (< 1% global electricity)
#Wind 150 (2% global electricity)
#Hydro – global average 1,400 (16% global electricity)
#Hydro – U.S. 5 (6% U.S. electricity)
#Nuclear – global average 90 (11% global electricity w/Chern&Fukush)
#Nuclear – U.S. 0.1 (19% U.S. electricity)
*Look at which energy input is the least deadly... #Nuclear.
Most people's nuclear fears are irrational, unfounded, and not based in any evidence. #Uranium