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@NewtonA bit more #gas commentary here. This time an excerpt from #haywood report http://cdn.ceo.ca/1buql3d-IMG_20160929_104913.png+ see how the 2016 storage numbers have been at the top of the historical range all year? That is a big deal, partly driven by "preparation" for export facilities coming online. Mainly driven by lack of winter last year. What would take same storage numbers to bottom end of range next year or beyond? Imagine a serious winter and summer back-back, and then big pick up in nattie exports from USA. Hello bullish case! #naturalGas#gas.
@NewtonSome interesting things happening in #naturalgas#gas here today. A little something something about winter months leading a bounce on volume after weekend news flow was bearish short-term? Very interesting in terms of interplay between short/long-term forces in the market. Sometimes they conflict, sometimes they coexist peacefully and good opportunities can arise in either case.
@CJStradingGreat to publish a new article on #naturalgas that looks back to the #polarvortex. If you've seen large amount of volatility in prices recently then you may have some idea of what's coming! : )
@NewtonHey @CJStrading glad you could join the site after me encouraging you to do it for months! Looks like you've got some good potential for lots of quality content. Share your work here with your friends in the #gas world -- pretty sure we could use more commentary on #naturalgas around here : )
@NewtonI'm with you @Highheat! Go #gas go! Big moves and more to come. #naturalGas is great for #volatility. For those not trading #futures, there are #options on #LeveragedETF$hnu and $hnd. Put options on $hnd gives upside exposure to gas on several counts. Put options on leveraged etf interesting because of their "volatility decay" (rebalancing causes tracking error over time). Put option on bear etf when you're bullish on underlying. Also,puts on both bull and bear etfs are interesting for isolating decay...
@XrivaI highly recommend #RVTV video by Gregor McDonald ( Oct 20th ). He discusses #naturalgas but at the 7 minute mark ( from end ) discusses #Solar#PV increasingly displacing / disrupting other power generators.
@Excelsior#NaturalGas as a Global Commodity
Jude Clemente – NOV 23, 2016
“The #US became a net gas exporter just a few weeks ago, but exports to #Canada have actually been falling. Unlike still developing #Mexico, Canada doesn’t have huge incremental #gas needs, explaining why it’s so critical for Canada’s gas industry to have access to global markets via #LNG. Interestingly, while Mexico is overdependent at 60%, natural gas accounts for just 10% of Canada’s #power generation.
But, U.S. #shale#gas will continue to be very competitive into eastern Canada as new pipeline infrastructure gets built, such as the Rover and Nexus routes which will take Marcellus and Utica gas to southern Ontario’s Dawn hub. Both are expected to have completed phases next year.
One interesting market to watch will be how rising #oil prices impact #OilSands development in #Alberta and thus Canadian gas demand. Mining and in situ oil sands activity utilize gas for process heat and to upgrade bitumen to synthetic crude. #Gas utilized in the business is expected to double to around 5.2 Bcf/d by 2030…”
@Newton@Highheat was looking at10-year forward curves for #gas over past few years. Curve has collapsed so much. Record low levels across 10 year horizon and record flatness. Market looks very dead based on that chart. But there is so much more going on! Bullish push from export facilities coming online, mixed effects of fracking (net bullish imo as high yield markets break and ability to bring back online is impaired), and bearish effects of renewables make it not a slam dunk for extended rally in gas. But with some cold weather? ... get ready! #NaturalGas to $5+
@NewtonTo answer your question there @lukejacksonhttps://ceo.ca/efr?1033cc1ea59f I think "wildly bullish" may be fair. #uranium substitute #naturalgas doubling means it's less attractive as a substitute, hence more #uranium demand. Bankruptcies for uranium miners as hedges come off in low price environment means less supply. Sprinkle in new sources of inelastic global demand and seems pretty bullish... what could go wrong?
@NewtonGreat talk by #GregorMacdonald from http://www.terrajoule.us/ on #naturalgas for #realvision recently. He comes on quarterly and does great deep dive on particular topic. Prior one was "cost declines in #solar". Absolutely stunning analysis of engineering progress and economic implications. Recent one was on #bullish case for #gas here now, but long-term switch into a "dependency market" for gas, rather than a "growth market". Reason being displacement of gas by solar power (marginal unit electricity demand will be served by solar). Points to coal as example of dependency market today -- still widely used, but limited growth. Big implications for price action. Dependency markets can see prices spike to bring forward production, but not really bull market trends like seen with growing use of commodity. All in all, super interesting contrast of wildly bullish setup for gas next couple years and bearish case starting 3 years out. Some big calls and big ideas behind his work there. Gregor has a #newsletter, BTW. He mentioned that next talk on #realvisiontv may be about solar, again. I certainly want to hear more about negative prices for electricity seen in #Germany and #California!
@nicholaslepanIn a note to clients today, Haywood Securities sees near term volatility but fundamental support for oil and natural gas prices. OPEC and non-OPEC oil production cuts are the most important near term factor. Haywood sees WTI in the $50 to $60 bbl range in 2017 and increasing to $65/bbl in 2018. For natural gas prices, Haywood sees fundamentals supporting Henry Hub prices in the $3 to $3.50 range in 2017 and 2018. Contact your local Haywood representative for a full copy of the report. #oil#energy#naturalgas#haywood