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@newstrackerChinese steel rebar 25mm US$391.5/t vs US$389.5/t
– World Steel Association upped its steel demand forecasts from -0.8%/-0.4% in 2016/17 to +0.2%/+0.5% during the same period citing upward revision to China.
- A decline in Chinese demand is forecast to come in at 1% and 2% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
- This compares to previous estimates for declines of 4% and 3% in its Apr report.
- “To soften the effect of rebalancing (of the economy), the government issued a number of mini stimulus measures, boosting infrastructure spending and real estate market and auto sales,” the latest report read.
- “However, the rebound in the real estate market is limited and not sustainable as inventory levels remain very high and apartments re increasingly unaffordable to most residents.”
- “The construction sector will therefore continue to drag down steel demand and manufacturing sectors have only limited room for recovery.”
Source: SP Angel – Morning View – Tuesday 11 10 16
@DanO@LucTenHave When you say #nickel you basically say #steel. See what the future has in store for steel and you'll have the answer for at least half of your question (demand). For the other half (supply) you have to ask yourself if the disruptions are serious and supposed to continue. We have good hardrock nickel deposits in Canada and Australia which can produce a lot if necessary. But nickel from laterites is cheaper and that's why it is being relentlessly developed. But that comes at a high environmental price (deforestation, loss of habitat, influence the water cycle locally and regionally, etc).
@newstracker#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$61.0/t vs US$62.2/t
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$428.7/t vs US$423.2/t
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$75.0/t vs US$73.8/t yesterday
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$265.5/t vs US$258.5/t
@newstracker#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$69.0/t vs US$67.3/t –
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$446.6/t vs US$443.4/t –
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$67.0/t vs US$63.0/t yesterday
Premium hard coking coal Aus fob US$308.8/t vs US$308.8/t – remains unchanged for a week, not sure exactly why? Ordinary hard coking coal is $270.0/t vs $270.4/t (Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal)
Source: SP Angel – Morning View – Tuesday 22 11 16
@newstracker#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$71.5/t vs US$69.0/t –
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$452.2/t vs US$446.6/t –
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$68.5/t vs US$67.0/t yesterday
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$308.8/t vs US$308.8/t – unch
Ordinary hard coking coal is $270.0/t vs $270.0/t (Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal) Source: SP Angel – Morning View – Wednesday 23 11 16
@newstrackerMetal movements into and out of Shanghai and LME warehouses
- Shanghai copper stocks rise by 9,525t adding to an extra 1,325t into LME warehouses
- Shanghai Aluminium stocks fall 12,373t while LME Aluminium stocks fall by a further 5,450t
- #Nickel stocks fell 281t in Shanghai with LME stocks down just 6t. This barely dents the mountain of nickel out there
- #Tin stocks fell 158t in Shanghai while LME stocks rose 80t
- Shanghai Zinc stocks fell 6,000t with LME stocks falling by a further 225t
- #Cobalt is unchanged despite the artisanal invasion at Tenke Fungurume
- #Steel, moly and lead are unchanged on the LME though Shanghai lead stocks fell by 3,673t as local lead production is thought to be less than it was
Source: SP Angel – Morning View – Friday 25 11 16
@newstrackerIron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$73.0/t vs US$73.0/t – Imports in China climbed 3.0%yoy to 80.8mt with top three suppliers including Australia (+3.0%), Brazil (+17.1%) and South Africa (+2.2%) posting growth in shipments.
Chinese #iron ore futures (Jan/17) continued to climb posting a 4.5% today with steel prices up 6.1%.
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$455.4/t vs US$452.5/t –
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$66.5/t vs US$64.0/t yesterday
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$308.8/t vs US$308.8/t – unch
Ordinary hard coking #coal is $273.4/t vs $270.0/t (Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal)
Imports in China jump 67.4%yoy to 5.2mt in Oct with Australia and Mongolia posting 36.9%yoy and 213.6%yoy increases respectively.
The two countries account for 85% of imported coal.
@newstrackerMiners rise on weaker stronger metals prices and weaker US dollar
- #Steel, Iron ore and Base metals prices continue to rise as the OECD raises it outlook for economic growth for this year and next.
- The OECD move coincides with a more bullish outlook for growth partly driven by the election of Donald Trump and his policies on creating growth but also on more general positive momentum within the global economy.
- #Oil prices are falling again due to OPEC’s failure to cut production. This also helps global growth forecasts as it helps maintain lower costs in many industries. Though the value of oil stocks does serve to pull back to equity markets.
Source: SP Angel – Morning View – Monday 28 11 16
@newstracker#China stands firm on cutting excess steel, coal capacity – (Xinhua News Agency)
- China reiterated its stance on cutting excess #steel and #coal capacity in response to moves by producers driven by recent price rises.
- China closed 45mt of steel and 250mt of coal capacity in the year to end October meeting its full-year target ahead of schedule.
- Short term demand growth is said to have created an unexpected demand-supply gap pushing up steel, coal and iron ore prices.
- Steel and coal are still seen to be in overcapacity and leading to longer-term excess supply.
- China reports it will continue capacity cuts but will pay greater attention to prices.
- Investigators are being sent to Hebei and Jiangsu where capacity cut rules were breached to intensify supervision and root out fraud and illegal production.
- The state is going for zero tolerance with steel and coal producers that fail to meet national and environmental standards.
- The Ministry of Finance has pledged 100bn yuan ($14.5bn) in aid for steel and coal companies to resettle laid-off workers.
- Steel capacity cuts are targeted at 100-150mt by 2020 alongside around 500mt of coal capacity over the next five years.
@newstracker#Copper at $5,914/t – expect to see #copper break $6,000/t
Major miners rise as steel prices hit 2-year high with iron ore and steel prices both posting strong gains European equities climb for a third trading session with financials leading gains and the Bloomberg World Banks Index hovering around the highest level in more than a year.
- #Steel prices helped higher by proposals by Chinese authorities to reduce polluting steel-scrap processing next year.
- #Gold and Brent are flat this morning reflecting little change in the US$ index.Strong German data helped base metals go better yesterday supported by an underlying positive tone driven by Trump
- The US dollar remains strong but with potential for further weakness should help the base metals go better in US dollar terms
- Stronger US growth is firmly on the agenda as companies see Trump as a signal to take a more optimistic view of the world.
- Strong US imports served to raise the US trade deficit to $42.6bn.
- October imports into the US jumped 1.3% to highest level in 14 months to $229bn driven by a stronger US dollar and by a more optimistic view of US growth.
- US Exports fell by 1.8% to $186.4bn due to lower shipments of farm products and lower value of petroleum products, aircraft and other industrial goods.
@newstracker#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$75.9/t vs US$79.0/t – first significant pullback in iron ore prices for a couple of weeks despite smaller $2/t decline in Chinese iron ore futures
Chinese #steel#rebar 25mm US$529.6/t vs US$534.3/t – also pulls back
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$64.4/t vs US$65.0/t yesterday
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$262.7/t vs US$274.4/t –
@newstrackerA dispute panel of the World Trade Organization ruled in favor of Taiwan on Wednesday on its complaint over anti-dumping duties imposed by Canada on some of its steel goods. Canada slapped duties on some imports of carbon steel welded pipes from Taiwan in 2012 and Taiwan brought the complaint to the WTO in Jan 2015. The annual value of Taiwan's exports of carbon steel welded pipes to Canada dropped from around $19 million before the anti-dumping duties to around $5 million, Taiwan officials said at the time of the filing. Both sides have 60 days to appeal. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-wto-steel-idUSKBN14A1MV#steel#Canada#Taiwan
@newstrackerIron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$76.4/t vs US$75.0/t
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$481.6/t vs US$482.0/t
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$68.6/t vs US$68.6/t yesterday
- Chinese thermal coal production hit an eight-month high of 249.2mt in Nov.
- The second monthly increase in output follows the government decision to ease the output-cut policy freeing up c.40mt of additional monthly capacity.
- The sector is going through a restocking as marked by strong Nov thermal coal imports which hit the highest level since 2013 and early 2014.
- Inbound shipments climbed 37%mom to 22.5mt with YTD imports up 23%yoy at 175.4mt, Bloomberg reports.
Premium hard coking coal Aus fob US$242.3/t vs US$242.3/t
@newstrackerChinese steel rebar prices have fallen more that 2 per cent, while coke and coking coal are under pressure. The most-active rebar contract for May delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange settled down 2.0 percent at 2,951 yuan ($424.35) per ton. Prices have been seesawing on a daily basis this week amid low turnover with major international exchanges shut for the Christmas holidays and ahead of the New Year. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-ironore-idUSKBN14I0KI#steel#China
@QuantumJanuary ferrous #scrap market looking strong across NA. Early indications put the increase anywhere from 30-50/ton. While an increase more than those numbers is unlikely, an increase less than 30 is still highly possible. Indicates good mill orders and a lack of scrap inventory - which is correlated to weather this time of year. #steel
@nlepan#China – spending $115bn on adding 2,100km of new rail this year
- China is maintaining its budget for spending on new railways this year at US$115bn .
- China is planning on adding some 2,100km of track and to electrify a further 4,000km of rail adding to its existing 124,000km rail network which includes some 19,000km of high speed rail and 5,500 rail stations.
- By contrast the UK which has some opened five new railway stations last year with another four due to open in 2017 to take the total number or UK stations to 2,564 on a rail network of around 15,760km. But then China is only 40 times the size of the UK.
- China’s intention to maintain its rail infrastructure development is good for iron ore and steel demand and should also be good for many other metals as the network develops and new stations are built.
- The development of increasing numbers of suburban rail systems means more electrification and #copper and #aluminium usage.
- The construction of increasing numbers of stations on these shorter rail links is also good for chrome and nickel for stainless steel.
- Rising demand for suburban rail trains should further increase demand for aluminium, steel and stainless #steel.
@nlepan#Philippines – #steel trader suing Philippine DTI for recall of import clearance on 20kt shipment of deformed Chinese sell bars
- The case claims that the shipment Department of Trade and Industry ‘DTI’ regional office unilaterally recalled the import clearance and that the steel shipment already complied with import standards.
@nicholaslepanFTSE 100 hit new record high on the back of a weaker pound with miners leading gains.
- The pound gapped down 1.6% against the US$ briefly touching 1.1986 this morning as the government indicated the nation is prepared to withdraw from the single market completely to keep controls of its national borders.
- Mrs May will be giving a speech regarding the Brexit strategy on Tuesday.
- The US is celebrating the Martin Luther King Day with markets closed today.
- #Gold is up 0.5% trading above $1,200/oz amid increased volatility in FX markets.
- #Iron ore futures hit daily limit on the Dalian Commodity Exchange extending 13% gain recorded last week.
- Supporting moves in the iron ore market, #steel prices posted strong gains with rebar up 5.5% and hot rolled coil up 4.2% in China today.
@nicholaslepan#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$81.1/t vs US$78.2/t
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$500.6/t vs US$501.0/t
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$69.1/t vs US$68.9/t yesterday
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$171.5/t vs US$172.6/t
@QuantumI was at a conference last year where a North American steel executive that is a small producer of rebar told of how he can't compete against Turkish rebar where it is literally cheaper to ship scrap to turkey from North America, melt it, create rebar, ship it back to the port of Louisiana, and truck it the few hundred miles to where his customers were than to buy from him. Tarriffs and anti dumping legislation will help make NA more competitive but it's a losing battle imo. Environmental legislation and labor costs are too high, not to mention old plants. The other thing is you can slap a tariff on a specific type of rolled steel for example but that steel will find a way to make it in, by changing its form slightly, or to the detriment of the protectionist policy by moving up the chain. So now you don't have China or turkey shipping steel in the country but things like appliances. Anyways long way of saying be careful buying NA #steel producers.
@nicholaslepan$Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$82.4/t vs US$82.4/t
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$498.8/t vs US$498.8/t
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$65.9/t vs US$65.0/t yesterday
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$169.8/t vs US$169.8/t
@nicholaslepan#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$82.1/t vs US$81.1/t
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$498.8/t vs US$498.8/t
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$66.9/t vs US$66.9/t yesterday
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$169.7/t vs US$169.7/t
@nicholaslepan#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$76.7/t vs US$78.0/t
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$501.9/t vs US$502.8/t
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$66.2/t vs US$66.7/t yesterday
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$168.4/t vs US$167.8/t
@nicholaslepan#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$79.7/t vs US$76.7/t
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$504.7/t vs US$501.9/t
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$66.9/t vs US$66.2/t yesterday
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$168.4/t vs US$168.4/t
@nicholaslepan#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$80.7/t vs US$79.7/t
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$508.0/t vs US$504.7/t
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$66.5/t vs US$66.9/t yesterday
Premium hard coking coal Aus fob US$168.0/t vs US$168.4/t
@nicholaslepanChina - the world's top producer and consumer of steel - said early last year it would shut as much as 150 million tonnes of annual crude steel capacity over the next five years to tackle a supply glut that had encouraged a surge in cheap exports, exposing the nation to anti-dumping complaints. However, according to Greenpeace, chinese steel capacity increased in 2016. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-steel-pollution-idUSKBN15S0BB#steel
@nicholaslepan#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$87.2/t vs US$82.9/t
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$507.8/t vs US$507.5/t
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$65.8/t vs US$66.1/t yesterday
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$164.6/t vs US$167.8/t
@nicholaslepan#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$87.3/t vs US$87.2/t - Spot iron ore breaks $90/t for first time since Aug 2014 (Reuters)
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$534.2/t vs US$507.8/t
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$64.6/t vs US$65.8/t yesterday - Colombian Jan thermal coal exports hit 10-month low of 6.52mt (Platts)
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$162.4/t vs US$164.6/t
@nicholaslepan#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$87.7/t vs US$87.3/t
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$535.9/t vs US$534.2/t
Thermal #coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$66.2/t vs US$64.6/t yesterday – China looking to reassert coal production restrictions in next six months
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$154.8/t vs US$162.4/t
@nicholaslepan#India has extended anti-dumping duty on some steel products from China by five years, in a bid to retain protectionist barriers and stem the tide of cheap foreign products. Between April and January, India's steel imports fell 37.8 percent year-on-year, data from a government body showed, primarily due to the slew of protectionist steps announced by the government. #chinahttp://in.reuters.com/article/india-steel-antidumping-idINKBN15Z1CK?
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$555.5/t vs US$538.2/t
#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$87.5/t vs US$87.1/t
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$150.0/t vs US$150.4/t
@nicholaslepanCommodities rebound pans out nicely for stainless steel. Stainless steel accounts for a tiny fraction of all steel produced worldwide, it is an important market as the metal goes into household appliances, medical goods, cars and water treatment equipment. Its use is also widening as developing countries transform into consumer economies with aspirations of higher living standards. A record 45.6m tonnes were churned out worldwide last year. There are three listed pure-play stainless steelmakers, all based in Europe but with international operations, Aperam, Outokumpu and Acerinox.