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@TheGalvanizer Weekend reading thx Doug
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@TheGalvanizer Did i miss module 7?
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@ocotilloredux 7 was Peru from about mid-Sept. I can't page up for some reason to find the link.
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@TheGalvanizer I found it thanks. Mid-Sept would have been my pre-birthday mid-life crisis era of 2016 no wonder I missed it!
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@MartinTurenne Good info today from Scotia on zinc inventories: "Guess What Got Cancelled Last Night? 11,550 tonnes of Zinc!! … All of which is in New Orleans which is home to 392,750 tonnes of the 446,650 tonnes of Zinc in Global Warehouses (or 88%). Industry participants saying that most of the Zinc in New Orleans is “Crappy Zinc / Off-spec Zinc” .. because it was sitting there when New Orleans was flooded 10 years+ ago. It is so old and the surface is partially oxidized and dirty that galvanizers would only turn to it if they were in a supply jam. The problem is that it would create a lot of waste (dross) in the galvanizing process and there is a cost to this." 1/2
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@MartinTurenne "So is the LME market tighter than you think? We believe so .. a market participant is also saying that hidden Zinc stocks have declined this year significantly “for example, imports of zinc metal into China were up ~150kt in the first 7 months of the year, and LME didn’t move much so this must have come from unreported stocks effectively, as the market was in deficit…” They estimate unreported stocks are under 200kt”. This is rather low – if you add 200kt to our 777kt estimate for Total Global Stocks (this includes bonded warehouse stocks) then total zinc stocks (hidden and visible) is under 1Mt or less than 25 days of consumption." 2/2
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@TheGalvanizer Great stuff Martin. Thx
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@Excelsior agreed - Thanks @MartinTurenne
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@Vaughan Yup, third thumbs up martin. Much appreciated.
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@ocotilloredux Ted Yates, who was Cominco's zinc guru for many years used to state that 28 days supply was the trigger for zinc prices to rise or fall dramatically. You can see what he means in Figure 2 here. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10222.pdf
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@ocotilloredux Convenience yield in Figure 2 is essentially a surrogate for price in Figure 2. I used a similar curve for copper that Barclay's put out in the past to predict the fall in copper prices. I use the same argument to predict the rise in zinc prices.
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@Excelsior CANADIAN ZINC REPORTS RESULTS FOR THIRD QUARTER 2016 Vancouver, British Columbia, November 15, 2016 - #Zinc $CZN $CZICF #Index  Prairie Creek Optimization Projects Under Way  Positive Metallurgical Test Results from Newfoundland Deposits http://www.canadianzinc.com/images/Docs/News_Releases/CZNNR20161115.pdf
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@teevee angry geologist flushes Tinka $TK down the toilet http://angrygeologist.blogspot.ca/
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@TheGalvanizer Reread it's Nevada Zinc he is against not Tinka
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@HighROI In fact in the comments he says "I like TK, maybe I'll pull apart the data someday..."
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@PamplonaTrader shake my head, read the article before you post
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@PamplonaTrader Also, weren't you long Nevada Zinc?
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@ocotilloredux @teevee Must be off his meds. He has confused a sulphide deposit in carbonates with a carbonate deposit. The met work they did if I recall correctly came back nicely.
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@teevee @PamplonaTrader, yikes, I should have a cup of joe and have some breakfast before posting.....I have no exposure to zinc miners or explorers.
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@PamplonaTrader @teevee ;-)
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@TheGalvanizer Goldman Sachs upping 3/6/12 month zinc targets to $2600/t, $2700/t and $2800/t respectively (i see a pattern there) from $2500/t, $2500/t and $2200/t
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@MiningBookGuy After copper it's zinc's turn to feel the speculative Chinese heat: Andy Home http://www.reuters.com/article/us-metals-zinc-ahome-idUSKBN13C21N #zinc #copper #China #index
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@Excelsior Making the Case for #Zinc - Vendetta Mining Corp. $VTT $VDTAF #MIF #INDEX Published on Nov 18, 2016 "Analysts are calling for the lead and zinc bull market to begin and if investors are looking to get into the sector, Vendetta Mining Corp. may present an opportunity. President and chief executive Michael Williams shares insights on the firm’s operations in the top tier mining jurisdiction of Queensland, Australia." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WS45Esb5SGg+
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@Excelsior $CNX $CLLXF Callinex Mines, Inc. - Corporate Presentation #MIF ~Zinc #INDEX Published on Nov 18, 2016 #BeneathTheSurface #ZINC #GOLD #COPPER #SILVER #LEAD https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zo2qY5anIV0+
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@ocotilloredux Strictly coffee this time. http://docdro.id/fhCs3Bc #Zinc Module 9- Mexico
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@ocotilloredux Another kick in the teeth for zinc supply. I mentioned in my India module that I was not in love with the looks of those open pit walls. This from Vedanta's quarterly results... However, concurrent mining at Rampura Agucha is leading to geotechnical challenges in both the open pit and underground. After deliberations with internal and global technical experts, Vedanta decided to modify Stage V and limit the incremental pit depth to 30 metres. This will mitigate pit wall challenges and significantly reduce waste-ore ratio, providing a fresh impetus to accelerating mine development at the underground mine in a safe manner.
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@ocotilloredux I will have a look at the impact but I think it means a reduction from that pit of roughly 300,000 T of zinc hitting in the 2018 timeframe.
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@ocotilloredux Just did a rough calculation. A 50 m pit depth extension would have given them 8.8 Mt grading 13% with 90% mill recovery. Only going to 30 m knocks out 40% of the above or just a tad under 400,000 T of expected zinc supply in the 2018/19 time frame. This is significant. Presumably they are only taking one side of the pit down to the new depth instead of both walls.
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@HRA-Coffin Nice catch @ocotilloredux
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@Excelsior Even though the first 3 minutes is about #Copper, if you check out the 3 min and 20 second mark they discuss #Zinc and how 1.2 million tones of Zinc is being pulled out the market. If you add that to the 4000,000 Tones that is knocked out of the Vendanta resource then we're up to 1.6 millon of Zinc supply going bye bye. Watch Out: That Copper Surplus Isn’t Going Away #BNN Commodities – 11/18/2016 “Wood Mackenzie metals analyst Julian Kettle says the world looks set to go on producing more copper than it needs for at least a year.” http://www.bnn.ca/commodities/video/watch-out-that-copper-surplus-isn-t-going-away~998146
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@ocotilloredux The 400,000 T is a one off event, not an annual event but it means that India will likely be a significant importer of slab zinc in that time frame since Vedanta's smelters are land locked. They are also fiddling with Skorpian and Gamsberg to try to make up some of the losses they see coming internally. I will discuss it all in my next module when I look at Africa.
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@Excelsior Thanks for unpacking that a bit further @ocotilloredux . Much appreciated.
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@TheGalvanizer Just finished reading the latest Doug Beattie zinc module. For anyone interested in this sector they are absolutely required reading. http://docdro.id/fhCs3Bc
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@ocotilloredux I had a look at Nevsun's Bisha today and I suspect they will get over their mill issues shortly. The metallurgical work was in their 2006 NI 43-101 and it clearly showed that the primary ore samples were oxidizing rapidly (pyrite) and this was killing the ability to make a decent copper concentrate. When they used fresh samples everything turned out well in the lab. So if they send ore from the pit face right to the mill this should help solve their problems. $nsu
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@tommy Anyone have opinions on Darnley Bay $DBL? They are acquiring Pine Point in NWT from creditors (ex Tamerlane Ventures). Pine Point was a profitable Cominco lead-zinc mine 1964-1987. Darnley Bay announced a $7.5 million funding today ($0.20 Units with 1/2 warrant for 25 months at $0.30, or 25c flow Through shares). Proceeds to complete the acquisition, a new PEA, exploration drilling and working capital. Strong financial group coming in (PowerOne Capital Markets). @marketwired/darnley-bay-announced-proposed-7500000-private-placement-c85e4 #zinc Nov 10 presentation: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c3a4jo-DBL+DECK+NOV+10.pdf
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@TheGalvanizer Old Tamerlane projects right? I have some notes on them at the office when I looked a few years back. Need to reread them
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@teevee @tommy, octotilloredux and I covered Pine Point deposits. To make a long story short, no economic solution to mitigate ground water inflows. Cominco abandoned for good reason(s) and principle reason why Tamerlane failed. $DBL will fair no better.
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@TheGalvanizer Thanks @teevee saved me any digging
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@tommy Thanks @teevee. I should have searched your usernames and "pine point". Any other opinions?
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@TheGalvanizer I might share a few privately. I'm sure they will do a good promote on it though with where zinc is going in 2017
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@TheGalvanizer It's amazing actually how often I'm seeing zinc highlighted in news release titles these days :)
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@TheGalvanizer All aboard!!!!
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@tommy I have an interest in a private zinc property back east. It's probably too big for u guys.
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@TheGalvanizer Attaboy. #loadup #zinc
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@TheGalvanizer hope it's not Balmat via that AZ private group
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@TheGalvanizer That one is a challenge and a half. Actually nothing easy in zinc :)
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@robmcleod Tamerlane was looking at underwater mining techniques at Pine Point. No obvious solution aside from ice dams, similar to Ekati.
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@robmcleod I like Balmat. Good potential between the two headframes.
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@TheGalvanizer Lots of exploration potential granted. Heck it was mined for decades with no much than a few years of resources ahead of it
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@TheGalvanizer If the AZ group can figure it out then they at least have a potential producer for the zinc run
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