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CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
@DJSIan, not sure if you ever lurk on CEO.CA or not, but if you do please read @cautiousnow's note above for a very clear summary of the significant problems inherent in $NRN's approach (or rather, lack thereof) to shareholder communications.
@CautiousNowThere are two major reasons insiders sell with exercised options. One is to pay for the exercise of the options. The other is to ensure that they are being taxed on real gains, without finding themselves holding shares that are worth much less than the exercise price and having to find cash to pay the taxman.
@CautiousNow@Ted Then they should have also said something about pending assays from x holes on the y project area, for which an announcement is expected at some point over the next (pick a conservative time frame). I have a material position in this for the combined optionality and discovery potential, so I hope you're right. Retail has an expectation of a much greater awareness of the importance of a coherent, compelling narrative, particularly in a nervous market in which funds move quickly to the next new shiny thing.
@CautiousNowBig volume today that was absorbed. Obviously, there are those who like the team, the science and the story. If they can get through the initial drilling phase without a lot of additional dilution, I think there's going to be some big regret by sellers pre results phase.
@CautiousNow@ekim Fingers and toes crossed that not another way below market rights offering. It looks like the program is designed to enhance the size of the project in order to entice a buyout. Given the fixed costs for the initial development (e.g., the road), a modest expenditure that enhances the scale and reduces the risk offers a very attractive potential incremental return. They should also be allocating significant effort on the political side to try to obtain some sort of joint funding for the road.
@CautiousNow@staffpro Brent's opinion wasn't actually as bad as I had expected. Ultimately, he saw the existing ounces as an optionality play that would be challenging in an open pit environment. There are other positive aspects he didn't comment on, such as the discovery narrative and the patented lands aspect. Basically, we have a sense of what he knows and not a good sense of what he doesn't know. The price actually held up not so bad for the volume of selling.
@ekim@CautiousNow great points. I get the feeling that the news release yesterday wasn't for us, the retail peons...but for all the players interested in getting into Chidliak before it becomes a $1 billion NPV project. This game of chess is killing me and it sounds like Eric/Robert are still inviting players to the game. Incremental, high value, revenue will benefit any project. CAD$2 billion of 250m to 500m underground material should do absolute wonders to the bottom line.
@CautiousNow@markedtofuture@rdww Thanks for the updates. Still have my full position and keeping the faith. That being said, they didn't do themselves any favours with the last press release by offering very selective disclosure of results. That never creates much confidence with retail as you never know what you're not being told that could colour your lens on adding or reducing.
@CautiousNowLove the assets. Was shocked when $IVN dropped down from $5. Was planning on what to do with my exit at around $6 after a run from about $1.15. Had all my next new shiny things all sorted out so that I was ready to pounce....LOL
@CautiousNowPlaying with the idea of adding at the current levels if I have some cash free up. The optionality aspect creates a logical floor, there is an exploration program in an established area and the gold price ultimately has to go up given the chaos in the rest of the world.
@CautiousNow@EvenPrime yes, I'm like the Black Knight in Monty Python. My status as number 145 is only a "flesh wound". I have everyone just where I want them. Lol
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@CautiousNow@Dunite. Sorry I don't work in the mining business, so I'm not familiar with the registration process. I would assume that there is a public registry of some sort. Perhaps look at where CLE isn't to the N and NW of the known NRN claims at Huckleberry and Sequoi?
@CautiousNowI've had some shares since way back in the pre-consolidation Diamonds North and Uranium North days. I've always had a lot of time for Mark because of his smarts, the science emphasis, the straight up non-promotional approach, his willingness to spend time with retail players at the shows and his sensitivity to costs. Did a couple of nice adds over the last 8 months or so and would like to do another if the market cooperated on a couple that could be getting a bit toppy soon.
@CautiousNowCame under some selling pressure when it took a nice run during PDAC. Looks like someone wanted in late in the day today. This one is an interesting one. Lots of shares out, issuance of the new lease triggers a potential 20 percent participation election and then we're looking at a mix of a large raise or a possible smaller raise with an off take. John Kaiser likes this a lot and sees huge upside in this market. This has a lot of variables and permutations when there are a lot of other interesting opportunities out there. It will be interesting to watch the trading strategies if this approaches the 50-55 cent range in the near term.
@CautiousNowAre you making investment moves before the federal budget? I anticipate another attack on wealth by JT-change the inclusion rate on capital gains, changes on dividend tax credit, possibly a surtax like dear old dad had. Not sure he'll go so far as some sort of capital tax on RRSPs/LIRAs for amounts in excess of a prescribed amount or some sort of tax grab on TFSAs in which the holder has been extremely successful. Looking at selling a couple on which I have good gains. Converted my Defined Contribution plan to money market before US election.
@CautiousNow@PamplonaTrader You seem closer to this one than I am. Any sense of why there hasn't been any announcement on the drilling program? I would have thought that PDAC would have been a nice time to get the story out there. I agree with your comment on no volume. It can be difficult to build a good position on this one unless you happen to hit a day when someone wants out. Similarly, this can be a difficult one to exit at this time if you suddenly need funds. I would anticipate much greater liquidity once the narrative is more apparent and more people catch on to the story. Those of us who ex-Antares shareholders might be a bit ahead of the curve on this one.
@CautiousNowI was a bit surprised that this ended the way it did after losing steam for a bit late in the day. It would be great to hear about the issuance of the permit this week to start the clock on the participation right. The most recent John Kaiser-Jim Goddard radio segment from last week had a really good discussion on this one to which I'd recommend that those holding or those considering holding listen.
@CautiousNowIncreased my $ADZ position today by over 50% for a bit more than I had hoped to pay by triggering the gain on the $SCY I had in my cash account at 16 cents before Trudeau's next "tax the rich" budget. (Thanks for the ongoing updates on $SCY, John Kaiser!) Kept my other $SCY in a LIRA to watch for news about the permit approval and market reaction to that.
@CautiousNowInteresting that RBC picked up 315,000 shares in the first three minutes this morning. Someone believes! Looks like I'll be in $IVN longer than I expected. Fabulous news today. It's hits like that one that make this sector so addictive....
@CautiousNowI think the analogue to $NRN made by @HRA-Coffin and presented by @tommy with respect to $ADZ is in the context of a potential sized scale play that is a rational roll of the dice because of the risk-reward profile. That the $NRN results (to date) have been much less than had been hoped is not indicative of either the pre-drilling analysis of $NRN as having been without a logical basis or having been a "pump job" by the writers or NRN management. That being said, I suspect that a number of us that fell a bit too much in love with the potential upside of $NRN will be much more disciplined with acquisitions of $ADZ and be very diligent about taking money off the table at an appropriate time.
@CautiousNowWhat historically happens for companies like these is that the price goes up as the info is being accumulated on the scale of the resource and then drops off as you switch focus to building a mine. The unique circumstance here is that there are multiple stories that are some of the best discoveries in recent years. The potential scale of the resource associated with each project is that it opens up a lot of potential permutations for the path forward respecting partial sales, JVs, full takeover, etc. The scale of the total resources is such that Robert will have many choices that just increase as drilling confirms additional resource. The involvement of the Chinese and the government mitigates some of the political risk that would otherwise exist. Prior to the most recent news, I had intended to sell my $1.15 position at $5.50. Now I'm hoping for $7.50-8 over the next six months, at which point I'll reassess the risk-reward equation in the context of other opportunities that may exist in the market. Hope this helps. So happy I didn't exit for the quick win at $3. Shout out to Rick Rule for flagging this one on BNN last year.
@CautiousNow@Dunite Yes....Holding on to $NRN to see how that one unfolds....Too much happening in the rocks to exit that one prematurely. For context on $MOD.AX, do you know how difficult it is to buy if you have an account at a full service broker in Canada?
@CautiousNowJust took a quick look at the $MOD web site. For context for those considering a purchase, there are 1.59B shares out and 172MM options. This means that it already has a pretty big market cap at current prices. I'm passing based on the share structure. I make no comment on the technical or commercial merits of the project and hope it does well for those who invest in the opportunity.
@CautiousNowCapital gains are regarded as a benefit to "the rich" when their agenda is to obtain as much revenue as is feasible from those who are well off without making moves that threaten their voting base. Perhaps they do something so that there is a tiered scale of an inclusion rate of 50% for gains up to $XXX/yr and a secondary inclusion rate for gains in excess of that amount. That way they don't tick off their base and continue the relentless attack on wealth.
@CautiousNowI live in AB, and the NDP government is clueless about economics. I wonder how many of them have even run a corner store and had to meet a payroll. Driving up the minimum wage as aggressively as they have been during an economic slowdown will logically see employers who rely on minimum wage labour to cut back on the number of positions or hours. The carbon "levy" is basically just a glorified surtax on those making more than $90,000 a year, as everyone making less than they is targeted for a rebate, such that 60% of the population is unlikely to change their consumption patten at all.
@DJS@CautiousNow If you're interested in $MOD, you might want to check out Metal Tiger, $MTR.L, which has a 30% interest on the same property but arguably a better share structure (recognizing that these are both ASX companies). I have bought a bit of each within the past couple of weeks -- $MOD through TD (which turned out to be both painful and expensive) and $MTR.L through my full service account at Haywood (which turned out to be much less expensive and quite painless). Lesson learned on how to buy on the AIM or ASX.
@DuniteI use Raymond James here in the States. It took a couple of days for them to figure it out but they are able to purchase $MOD.AX stock. The biggest problem Raymond James had is the 18 hour time difference. It is interesting to be able to watch your stock at midnight our time go up or down on the Hot Copper board. @CautiousNow Just check with your brokerage, they may have NO trouble what so ever.....
@CautiousNow@HRA-Coffin Thanks for your insights, Eric. I had been one of the Antares shareholders, and had increased my initial position largely because of the comfort I felt with John Black at a Cambridge conference. I have a lot of faith in this management team after my earlier experience, and I believe that my perspective is shared by many of the former Antares shareholders. This one tends to be very thinly traded, so it's not one I'd be trying to save a cent or two on to fill my order. With this announcement, they are now set up for news flow. The pending news flow and the increased public profile will bring a lot of new players to the story and see many of the existing players look at increasing their position.
@CautiousNowShocked the Liberals didn't go after capital gains today. Let's hope that 2017 is a very profitable year for all of us, as it seems inevitable they'll increase the inclusion rate at some point during their mandate. Nice to see common sense prevail for at least the moment.
@Dunite@CautiousNow, I Know that $MOD has 1.59 Billion shares out. I think that maybe for comparison @IVN has maybe close to a Billion out themselves. Correct me if I am wrong. So the amount of shares really does not scare me too badly. The grades of the metals are not that bad and there seems to be a course grained altered gabbro that underlies this resource that is PGE bearing. So this might be a fun stock to play with. If it goes just a third the way up that IVN has risen, I will be happy......
@CautiousNow@Dunite@DJS yes, that seems about right for $IVN. The difference that lets me rationalize the large number of shares out is the combination of the cash on hand and the ability to finance a project through debt and an equity raise. I don't plan to be in at that point, though.
@CautiousNowCongrats to those who got in today. I had expected it to take a nice jump on even 50,000 of volume because it's so thinly traded. This is another good example of one for which there will be regret if it runs on you when you're trying to save a cent. My position is full (so it won't be me), but this is one where I'd have no hesitation to jump over the bid to take an ask a cent or two higher to ensure the fill on my desired purchase if I were chasing a 10,000 share position.
@CautiousNowSurprised that there has been this degree of selling at these levels. There's only one way this one is going pre-drilling. There should be some good opportunities to take some risk money off the table with a nice profit before the truth machine results come in.
@CautiousNowSeems like yesterday when I was sitting at a Cambridge conference in Toronto worrying whether I was doing the right thing by selling 3,000 shares at $4.28 that I'd bought at 50 cents....Where's a time machine when I need one?
@zadman@CautiousNow selling is largely warrant related. Sell 12.5 - 15, replace with 12's. You can be certain if 3mm shares worth of buying wants in post warrant expiry, they are gonna have to pay up to do it. I hope I'm granted Devine power on this one to sell none if they are going to hit or sell all into the run up if they aren't. It was luck or Devine power on NRN - I exited all pre results for a decent profit. Won't claim I was one of the smart ones buying 5 cents or lower mind you. It's easy to say after the fact for NRN, but I find this drill punt more appealing. Something in my gut says kolibaba is due for some glory! Mind you, never yet met anyone who went broke taking a profit. More times than not, the drill bit makes you feel stupid in my experience. $ADZ
@ekim@CautiousNow I remember the 30 cent rights offering before that and was wondering if I should buy more shares as I had an abysmally small amount of shares. It rallied to $2 on the CH-6 then Kaiser on BNN took it to the stratosphere then it fell back to earth in short order. $4 x 72 million shares for 50% of Chidliak gave an enterprise value of Chidliak at CAD$576 million. Now Chidliak has an EV of CAD$70 million with a NPV (after tax) of a half billion Canadian with more to come. The CAD$7.5 million programme this summer could really raise the NPV to CAD$1 billion after tax NPV...but as always..I don't know what Enterprise Value the market should give. It was over optimistic at $4.28...so no reason it can't be overly pessemistic at $0.20. I would suspect the reason it went to CAD$600 million is that it drilled through the super high grade of CH-6 and there were a lot of geophysical anomalies around and no one knew if there are other twins to CH-6 in value or maybe even better. That didn't not turn out to be reality..but I don't think the speculation was misplaced..maybe a bit exhuberant.
@CautiousNowYup....Not sure we'll ever see that type of enthusiasm again post 2008. I remember one on the AB Exchange before Bre-ex that I think went from 17 cents to over $20 in two days based on "visible metal in core". Think it may have been Cartaway.