"Three thousand people will view this article, and 98% of them will be men. Remember that, and ask yourself, are you more like me, or more like my friend ... continue reading."
In 2013, my childhood friend and I started buying bitcoin and other crypto currencies. I spent about $250 on bitcoin while he put his life savings of $40,000 in various coins, mainly XRP ripple.
In 2017, at the height of the initial Bitcoin run, I sold my holdings for approximately $8,000. At this point in time, his total Ripple account alone, was now worth $850,000 and he said he wouldn't sell a cent until it reached 2 million. Remember, my friend is a regular joe, mid-thirties, male software developer, who firmly believes the fiat system will soon collapse … the perfect candidate for the upcoming statistic.
In early 2018, the cryptos dose dived. He traded those currencies down until they crashed to $60,000. He finally got fed up believing the market was against him and put the remaining into an Oil & Gas company that quickly went bankrupt. Talk about bad luck! The depression that followed him was intense. He was constantly sick, low energy, and complained of a 'brain fog,' that prevented him from thinking clearly.
He however saved another $40,000 early last year (I have a gut feeling he took a loan) and he once again invested in cryptos. He called me April 15th, 2021 and told me he had once again past the half million mark and moved all his currencies to Bitcoin. He told me he wouldn't sell another cent until it reached $100,000 a coin. That day marked the current top we've seen in bitcoin at $63,314. That very day, @Goldfinger released this article (read the sentence just above point #2 Bitcoin is a Bubble, Copper Bull ...)
Bitcoin currently trades at $35,291, down some 44% from its April high.
My friend and I are very much alike in most things except in our investing strategies. He is a balls to the wall, go getter, go big or go home, the system will fail type investor, whereas I built this contest, worked hard on gaining social capital, met CEOs and geologists, and dabbled in a few IPO's and PP's. In turn, I have built a strong social network. We have very different investment strategies indeed. This however, is what I find interesting:
"The bias that is required to take such a high level of risk is the same bias that prevents one from selling. "
Ironically, for me however,
"the bias that prevents one from taking such a high level of risk is the same bias that makes one sell early."
Fortunately for me, I run these Stock Contests and it allows me to communicate with all sorts of traders and I try to understand each person's cognitive bias; including my own.
You see, in 2018, us CEO.ca'ers went through this:
But I had sold most of stocks in late 2017 so I never personally felt the pain associated with said image, but I did however work as a CEO.ca moderator at the time and the stories I heard brought the reality home.
I have two questions for you to ponder.
- Are you like me or more like my friend?
- My friend and I currently have the same amount of savings. Who will have more in 2025, why?
Reply to those questions on my twitter feed here: https://twitter.com/EvenPrime43/status/1412296003244367877
The CEO.ca StockPickingContest starts every January and runs throughout the year. For 2021, we have 2,161 contestants who each chose 3 companies, and whoever has the best average portfolio at the end of the year wins. For the past few years, I've sent out the top 50 winners a nifty mug. I store all the information on my website www.EverythingEven.com and do this part time as my real career is at the airport keeping everyone safe.
Here is the top 20 most picked companies in the contest. Notice 145 people choose SONA.CN (ouch)
We all have dreams of catching the next $CMC.CN, and a huge congratulations to all those contestants, but for the 47 of those, there are 145 $SONA'ians, 62 $HEM'ers and another 66 IPA'ers, all who initially had similar dreams and beliefs such a short time ago. Their thesis may not be wrong, but their timing certainty was, and that is the trickiest thing with these markets ... timing.
2021 has been an interesting year. Bitcoin and Ethereum had massive runs but have since cooled, with Bitcoin nearly giving back all of its gains. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are making higher highs and even the Nasdaq composite is running strong.
The gold bugs have been in a slow, dragged out bear market since January. Gold stocks are boring, played out, and people are upset because they know seasonally speaking, it will continue for a few more months. I love this train of thought because I love boring stocks. The more boring, the better! BORING = EXCITING (to me) because that is how I make money evidenced by my #PaperTrades on CEO.ca. Below is a more detailed report of the table above. You can see Ethereum, and Bitcoin have given back a lot of their gains since their high point in April, whereas the big boys exchanges are continually making higher highs.
Our contestants are the most speculative stock pickers you can find and you are likely one of them. Statistically speaking, you've had an 11% chance that you doubled your money this year (if you picked what you really own (I do)).
Comparing this to previous years, recall the red 2018 heat map earlier in the article. Since early 2020, we have been in excellent times.
We had two thousand, two hundred and sixty-one contestants choose 3 companies but most of the top gaining companies in 2021 were picked by a select few. Four of the top 20 were picked by 10 or more people. The rest were hardly chosen at all. They were probably all boring stocks back in December 2020 hence the lack of people choosing them.See Best Performing Companies Here -> www.EverythingEven.com/2021pickdata.php
Please remember this contest is for entertainment purposes only and I urge everyone to reach out to their financial advisor before making any investment decision. At the end of the day, the goal is to stay in the game and to be constantly learning. Don't get blown out of the water on a single play and remember if you can be right just 51% of the time, you can go down to wall street and become a millionaire tomorrow! "Strong opinions, loosely held!"
And finally, I wanted to let everyone know our three sponsors each have news.
Mammoth Resources $MTH (I recommended at 11.5 cents is now at 14) has recently closed a private placement and is mobilizing to drill.
MUST WATCH: Mammoth Resources (MTH) - Initiating Drill Programme & Hunting Silver
Exploits Discovery Corp (I recommended in April at 42 cents is now 1.26) has news:
Slave Lake Zinc (I recommended at 24.5 is now at 19) has newsSlave Lake Zinc Identifies New Multiple Highly Prospective Structures Adjacent to Known Zones
Thank you everyone and all the best in the remainder of 2021. Remember, your health is much more important than your wealth. Stay active, eat right, smile more, and be friendly with strangers. I need to read that last sentence more often myself.
Disclosure: The author, @Evenprime owns MTH.V, & NFLD.CN shares at the time of publishing and may choose to buy or sell at any time without notice. @Evenprime has been compensated for marketing services by Mammoth Resources Corp, Exploits Discovery Corp, and Slave Lake Zinc, as they are a site sponsor of the #StockPickingContest hosted at www.EverythingEven.com.
DISCLAIMER — PLEASE READ CAREFULLY
The views expressed in this report are the personal views of the author, @Evenprime. Mammoth Resources Corp, Exploits Discovery Corp, and Slave Lake Zinc are a site sponsor at www.EverythingEven.com which hosts the yearly #StockPickingContest and @Evenprime owns shares in these companies. Nothing in this report should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned anywhere in this report. This article is intended for informational purposes only! Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of this article. All statements in this report, other than statements of historical fact should be considered forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events or future performance. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always identified by the use of words such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe" and similar expressions. Much of this report is comprised of statements of projection. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. Risks and uncertainties respecting mineral exploration companies are generally disclosed in the annual financial or other filing documents of those and similar companies as filed with the relevant securities commissions, and should be reviewed by any reader of this report.
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