Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only! Be advised, the author is not a registered broker-dealer or financial advisor. Before investing in any securities, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. See the full disclaimer at the bottom of this article.
In 2017, I doubled the value of my trading account. The girlfriend was finally having faith in me, my phone went from zero investing friends to twenty-seven. I started using CEO.ca everyday, and soon upgraded to CEO PRO which had me learning about the markets faster than Skynet could ;p I came in 28th place in the CEO.ca Stock Picking Contest (out of 146) and was starting to feel like I knew what was really going on.
Then 2018 happened. I quickly went from Hero to Zero, to negative portfolio Hoser. Thankfully, I panicked and sold most of my stocks in late January but have taken losses on just about everything I've held since then.
As 2018 rolls by, I am left thinking ... was I the only one taken out to the woodshed?
I recently got the CEO.ca Stock Picking Contests updated (huge thanks to @Mathematics and his python mastery). But before we pour over the numbers lets analyse two common junior investor charts:
- The GDXJ VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF
The GDXJ is currently 10% lower than its 200 day moving average and has dropped 33% since February, 2017.
- The CDNX S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index
The CDNX is 8% below its 200 day moving average and is down 25% since January of this year.
Reviewing these two charts , things do not look good. But I often hear people talking about holding long term, and when a stock is tumbling, people are quick to say others have weak hands.
Yet, according to this data (remember, its just a fun and friendly contest), statistically speaking, over this period, it appears that the people with 'weak hands' were the smart hands. The number of people who doubled their portfolio has dropped from 14% to 5%. More noticeably, the number of people who were losing more than 25% of their portfolio value has nearly tripled in 11 months from 16% to 45%. This indicates that 45% (66/146) of the 2017 CEO.ca Contest participants have seen their portfolios lose more than 25% and 66% (96/146) of participants are now below zero.
Looking at the top 20 winners as of January 1, 2018 and comparing their portfolio to today's value, we see everyone's has receded except the mighty @Stocklor and the infamous @Stateside!
So how about the 2018 CEO.ca Stock Picking Contest?
The 2018 contest, with its 431 participants, should statistically see a better (more accurate, larger sample size) picture of what is going on.
0.5% of participants are greater than 100% meaning just two people have doubled their portfolio and a whopping 72% of users are down more than 25%. You can also infer from the table that 87% (379/431) of participants currently have a negative portfolio. <- Incredible!
Lets add perspective. Look at the gains of the top 30 participants from both contests
Looking at the top 30 in each contest you can see 2017 was a much better year for investing in the juniors. I'm sure that Blockchain bubble had much to do with it and even I got caught in that storm. They say we learn more when we lose so if you are like me, and the other 87% of us that are losing, please take a moment to reflect. 2019 is just around the corner so hope for the best, prepare for the worse.
"No astronaut goes into space with their fingers crossed, that is not how we deal with risk!" - Chris Hadfield
Think about that one, when you make your next move - stay safe my friends :)
A word of caution about the data. The python program we created cannot automatically account for stock consolidations, I can only find those manually. I've caught about 50 over the last 2 years. If you see mistakes, please inform me and I will update them accordingly. Remember this contest is for fun and educational purposes only. I am not a stock broker, or investment advisor, please see my disclaimer.
To view all the contests please check out www.EPstatistics.com and see the links at the top (or click the hamburger if using mobile). I will update them every Friday from now until the contest ends.
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