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CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
@Excelsior#Korelin Economics Report - WEEKEND SHOW – SAT 21 JAN, 2017
A TEMPORARY #GOLD BREAKOUT AND GLOBAL ASSET CORRELATION
"On this week’s show we focus on #yields and #GlobalMoneyFlows for the first hour and #Gold and gold stocks for the second hour. It was a tame week for the markets outside of #Trump’s comment on the #dollar that caused some short term swings. Moving forward we continue to be in uncertain economic times and investors are having trouble going all in on any one asset."
- Segment 1 & 2: Chris Martenson, Co-Founder and CEO of Peak Prosperity, discusses the massive drop in the global correlation of assets and the concept that #CentralBanks follow on the way up.
- Segment 3: Greg Melia, President of Melia Advisory Group shares his views of why he does not believe in the US #equity markets.
- Segment 4: Fund Manager Dana Lyons looks at the COT reports for US #Treasuries and finds some extreme levels.
- Segment 5: Managing Partner at the CPM Group in New York, Jeff Christian outlines the big issues for the #PreciousMetals in play for 2017.
- Segment 6: We get an update from $XRA$XRC Exeter Resource President and CEO Wendell Zerb on the recent news that helps move the Caspiche project forward.
- Segment 7: $MARL$MRLDF Mariana Resources also came out with a PEA this week was showed some great results. Glen Parsons, CEO of Mariana provides a great overview on the numbers.
- Segment 8: We wrap up the show with Ned Schmidt, Founder of Value View Gold Report and his comments on the #gold market.
@FundamentalAnalysisThanks @Excelsior it's the main issue I have with the PGM space, along with the threat of how quickly electrics cars could disrupt the space versus fuel cell vehicles. Bottom line however is the earth adds around 75million people a year, most of that from emerging/frontier markets who want a better standard of living, and its not like the west as it stands are giving up their vehicles. So more in absolute terms is needed. I think we need faster supply destruction in south africa, the longer it drags out the riskier the PGM space becomes as a speculation. But hey what do I know.....met coal made a rampant rise last year which noone foresaw, maybe south african govt threatens to stop all exports.
@Excelsior@terrysteen - Great post. Yes, Doug is @ocotilloredux on here and he already had posted those thoughts on $TK and the Zinc Modules in the ~Zinc panel, so it's fine to share it because it's already has been circulated on ceo.ca for a while, and appreciated by all of us.
My recommendation is to check out the posts in both #Zinc and ~Zinc as there are a number of savvy contributors, articles, stock info, sector info, and good thoughts to mull over from all the contributors. Different things in those rooms, but a few posts appear in both channels. Good stuff!
@Excelsior@EvenPrime - Thanks for doing these tables, as they are much appreciated! This #SafestStockPickingContest was a great idea and its a good list to review.
@Leon - Just a heads up that $USAPD had it's last trading day on Jan 18th, because on the 19th it switched over to the big board on the NYSE and is now $USAS. Cheers!
@EvenPrime@Excelsior "Almost done" hehe just the swingforthefences one left. Once I finish I will then spice things up and actually make it presentable instead of just using barebone html. Right now it is just quick and easy :) I will admit I am shocked at the SafestStockPickingContest results thus far. I'm excited to do some number crunching soon :)
@PamplonaTrader@Excelsior Michael Langford @ML_SuperNinja has been trying to get me to look at $MIN.AX I haven't done enough DD on it yet but he says the Wodgina Tantalum-Lithium project is a world-beater. From what I can tell, $MIN.AX is a very well-run company with a smart business plan... their core business is mining services but they have also been very opportunistic in acquiring equity in strong lithium projects. $MIN.AX probably Ken Brinsden's arch nemesis, having dragged both $AGO.AX and $PLS.AX into legal battles over lithium rights. $MIN.AX owns 8% of $PLS.AX via a settlement in October. #lithium
@Excelsior@PamplonaTrader - Thanks for that additional info on $MIN.AX - I'm a shareholder of $NMT.AX because while they only hold 13.8% of Mount Marion project with $MIN.AX and Ganfeng , they also have 70% of the ownership of the downstream Eli Process at the Kalgoorlie #Lithium Refinery and $MIN.AX only has 30% of that. In addtion, they have their Barrambie #Titanium Project as a kicker.
@PamplonaTrader@Excelsior also with regard to producers, I tend to stay away from minority owners because it limits their takeover potential... though I will sometimes make exceptions for world-class projects e.g. Hot Maden, Cukaru Peki, etc
@Onlyflaws@Excelsior Ive read all the discussions and news about scorpio, and find the company interesting, although Im late since the sp has appreciated a lot already. How is the financial situation going forward? I read that AISC for Mineral Ridge is about 1200$ so Im guessing the margins are low atm. What kind of resources are we looking at the Goldwedge property? How long would it take to have it in production? Whats your own guesstimate about the future value of the company? Sorry for so many questions and I really appreciate if you find time to answer. Cheers!
@Excelsior@bullmarketmove Thanks for that video. It was a good review of sentiment dropping in #Uranium last year (and yes I remember that Energy Fuels press release being a wet blanket for a while).
In addition, it was nice to see Justin's technical analysis on the Uranium Miners hitting "Stage 2" and signalling that they are in a new bull market. I agree with him that holding onto core positions that will be winners in the Uranium spector is a great strategy over the next few years. --- Much appreciated.
@NordicDrill@Excelsior Same here, stalking currently and looking for an entry point. Though there are a couple of potential problems related to SBR aside from the convertible debt.
1) The deposit is great, but the location including road infrastructure is very challenging. I looked up the exact location on Google maps satellite, and also found out details from their materials. Servicing the site is going to be challenging when the ground is not frozen solid, as equipment will easily get stuck and sink in the wet soggy ground. Transporting processed materials and fuel is expensive. I am worried that difficult weather can possibly introduce production halts due to fuel reserves and spare parts running low.
2) They are actually lying in their Q4 2016 Fact sheet PDF when they claim that fully diluted share amount is ONLY 172 million. They have a table where they only list the Options (9,5 mil) and Warrants (none) - and totally forget to mention convertible debt which absolutely should belong to the fully diluted amount as long as the risk of dilution exists (Please note that on the investors overview page on the site they are STILL listing Q1 2016 info instead of keeping shareholder info up to date!). Also, another thing that has decreased my trust in them is the way they have deliberately reported the convertible debt in a rather messy way: the wording varies from document to document and in some quarterly reports it is impossible to know if the debt is in USD or CAD, and also which part has been converted into which (what amount remains convertible).
3) The latest responses to "taking in account the benefit of investors" is rather crappy damage control IMO. Now that they have *once again* agreed to continue to extend the period of convertible debt, they have also stated: "The discussions revolve around Aterra and Inflection converting a to-be-agreed portion of the principal amount of the existing convertible notes into common shares, such that their combined common share ownership would not exceed 65% on completion of the restructuring." This means that basically the ownership and control of the company moves directly to the Russian oligarks. You have to be realist here: Russia is not a friendly environment to foreing companies or investors. This can in the most extreme case mean that basically the company along its assets can be transferred completely to Russian ownership, cutting off the Canadian ties. There is no question whatsoever that the permitting and whole process of building the mine in Eastern Russia has meant bribing (or as we say in Finnish, "buttering up") the local authorities. The service road and running of the mine is completely tied to keeping good relations with the locals. These mean that there are two groups: the strong creditors and the local authorities, who can basically blackmail the company to agree with them.
These problems aside, I am expecting the mine to become profitable and am jumping in at least for short term gains as soon as there is no longer risk of 50% dilution for my shares.
@bullmarketmoveThanks @Excelsior I'm sure there will be some huge pull backs along the way, but sitting tight and being right (Jessie Livermore style) will work in the end. Has anyone read that book on Jessie Livermore? The title has something to do with a stock operator, might reread it, fantastic info on how to trade and on how to do nothing. @MiningBookGuy must have read it I'm sure :) #mbgtrends
@Excelsior@Onlyflaws - I really don't think you're late on $SGN Scorpio Gold, and if it does pull back to fill that gap on the chart, then that would be be a good place to snag some.
I expect this stock to be many multiples higher once it is back on investors radar as a gold producer. (over $1 wouldn't surprise me by the end of 2018).
You raise a great point about their current $AISC as this is a good example of their costs teetering on either side of profitability at present near $1200 (one of my favorite value perception arbitrage trades to exploit). The markets snub their nose at producers that are slightly underwater or at parity for household names, and then go on simultaneously promote "optionality" plays on exploration companies that need $1500-$1600 gold (huh?). I want to get my hands on a number of "almost profitable" producers, that have exploration upside, are expanding their mine life, and improving their costs.
If investors believe Gold will be going higher than $1200 over the next few years, then suddenly their margins will move up into the profit zone, and I believe at that point the stock will be re-rated properly with it's peers. (just look how low it's price to book value is compared to other gold producers).
They have the money in the bank to keep growing organically and can bring Goldwedge back into production when Gold get's closer to $1300. It's fully permitted and can be put back into production relatively quickly at minimal expense. I think the marketplace overly discounted them for a shorter life of mine in the past, and has forgotten about them. They've been making steady progress, have had some great exploration work done, and most don't realize they have the Goldwedge mine sitting idle as already permitted and derisked "optionality."
@Excelsior@NordicDrill - Wow! Thanks for the very thorough response on Silver Bear. Good Stuff!!
Yes, you raised a few different challenges in addition to the convertible debt issues previously discussed, that has now been somewhat addressed. I agree that seasonality and infrastructure due to their location may in fact create unforeseen slow downs in the future, along with the Russian oligarchs grasp tightening a bit.
Personally, I've been waiting for an entry back into their stock, but still feel it's a bit over-valued and a bit more uncertain (at least relative to it's peers); so I've put my money into other Silver stocks at present.
Having said that, I'm still very interested in getting into a position as one of my dirty dozen Silver stocks. I'm waiting on a few things to work through on some other stocks first, and then may rotate some of those funds into $SBR. Cheers!
@Onlyflaws@Excelsior Thanks for your comments, good as always. I was wondering why this stock did not move in 2016 when the POG was almost $1400.. well it doubled ofc but compared to many of its peers performance was not so great. But, the fact that it has not moved so much is also one of the reason Im interested.
Im just trying to understand the possible catalysts/prospects for re-rating and Im guessing that goldwedge would be one of them (dependant on POG) as well as successful exploration on Mineral Ridge. Im not a fan of optionality plays, like the ones that need $1400-1500 POG in order to work, as this sector is already risky enough. Im looking for producers who have the possibility to lower their AISC in the future. Like your pal Matthew said, its overbought now and I will be lurking for dips and maybe start a small position. Cheers Ex!
@NordicDrill@Excelsior Yeah same here, for example the 0.5 CAD in Aug was clearly too high compared to the value of the company. I have invested in other silver stocks as well while waiting for a resolution on $SBR. Now it's just down to waiting for the first news on their site or SEDI for insider share conversions, then the race is on...
@ExcelsiorOver the weekend a few different investors asked me what I like about Brixton so I'm just going to post this little blurb and their most recent January #CorporatePresentation at the bottom:
Personally, I'm a fan of Brixton because they now have 3 prior #producing#Silver & #Cobalt#mines that are already built, mostly permitted, and understood, so this greatly de-risks the project.
This gives them a huge advantage over a typical #Exploration start-up that is drilling & praying that they find something and then have an economic deposit. The best place to get a new mine going is where past producing mines were successful. The resources are there, and often times they have not used modern exploration techniques, and the geology can be looked at again to take the deposit wider or deeper, using a systematic process.
In addition, it is far less money for build out and #development when much of the work was already completed or in place from prior commodity cycles. Lastly, if there already is a #mine in place it is far easier for the local communities and governments to grant any remaining permits, as there is already a case study of successful mining.
In addition to their prior producing mines, Brixton also has their prospective Thorn Gold/Silver #exploration property in the #GoldenTriangle that they've had a some nice exploration hits on.
Thorn: Exploration project with the potential to yield a major discovery.
2 Large scale #gold targets (Outlaw & Chivas) for 2017 drilling.
#Cobalt Camp: Consolidating brownfield #silver assets in a high-grade camp.
Langis: 10.4 Moz at 25 opt Ag (Past #Production).
Hudson Bay: 6.4 Moz at 123 opt Ag (Past #Production).
Gowganda: 40.7 Moz at 22 opt Ag (Past #Production).
Gowganda: 2.9 Moz Indicated Resource in #Tailings at 47.5 g/t.
As for the management team it's got a few prior Newmont, NovaGold, and Kinross guys, as well as Ian Ball (Rob McEwen's protege that runs Abitibi Royalties). Rob is also a key shareholder. http://brixtonmetals.com/meet-the-team/
$HL#Hecla Mining 6%
Eric #Sprott 5%
$TAHO#Tahoe Resources 4%
Brixton Metals #CorporatePresentation - January 2017
@Excelsior@EvenPrime - @Vaughan described it at the top of the blog,
@Vaughan - "If you could only make one investment/trade with a minimum hold of 5 years, what would you choose? #Swingforthefences 1 from index, 27 Apr 2016, 09:22"
Unfortunately, I didn't read that when I made my picks because they were made in the regular #stockpickingcontest room (and I didn't know a room had been started by @Vaughan when he first tagged it back in April).
When I saw @PamplonaTrader throw in 3 more picks with a #SwingForTheFences tag, I just threw in 3 (actually 4 ha!) as well that I thought were long-shot and longer duration bets on a bright future of high potential return. They are NOT what I'd bet on if I could only make one trade and hold 5 years based on that criteria.
Personally, I was using the baseball analogy of #swingforthefences with long-shot higher risk but high potential reward home runs for my picks. Honestly, I didn't put much thought into those picks but considered these picks the highest risk (more than the other contests), and it appears @Vaughan actually had the opposite definition, so I did it wrong. If it is about safety, then I revert back to #safeststockpickingcontest.
@ExcelsiorIf Uranium prices stay in the low $20's until 2022 then there won't be any #Uranium companies left by that time. Spot price will need to rise to $40-$60 cost of production or all supply goes bye bye. It has nothing to do with Trump and more about supply demand and the cost of maintaining a business.