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@FundamentalAnalysis again back down.....this is getting ridiculous LOL......I am hopeful that destruction always leads to creation.....and I wouldn't rule out another 2016 H1 run up at some point, once all the speculators have been washed out and given up on the carnage that pursues...this isn't a pullback its straight up destruction like a consolidation or washout #mbgtrends.
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from #tgz,
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@FundamentalAnalysis should have been more patient but I bought some more $SSL........It just seems too low to just ignore, and don't want any regrets. You can wait and wait....but you wait too long you can actually miss the boat. Done that many times before :)
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from #mbgtrends,
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@Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis Nice buy, that's a good dip
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@FundamentalAnalysis Company is now trading below book value lol $SSL, so the market now assume sandstorm cannot generate shareholder value with what it has. Meanwhile $FNV off course a superior company but trades at a P/B ratio of over 3. Market implies 300% return on its investments. $SSL mentioned how even 10% IRR is good, and today royalty/streaming deals are going for almost 0% IRR that's why $SSL got involved with Hot Maden as returns were just not there. You'd be surprised to know once including time value of money etc....how low returns can be with royalty/streamining. With $FNV its all the future optionality that's how they have created value, $SSL however is going for high IRR, and also the optionality (But they have a slight disadvantage on the later...as assets smaller).
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Jayfire Cheerz, I had 4.3CAD my magic number in mind....but I'm going to be buying $SSL all the way to zero, until the other juniors get smashed enough.....so i can buy them up over the next moth. This is a brutal pullback as a whole not just $SSL but most junior plays....we are either stuffed, or the comeback will be outstanding........
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from #mbgtrends,
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@Paul @FundamentalAnalysis - Hi. I'm buying SSL too but I can't get my head around this latest deal and why the market has to be 'warned' about it. As far as I can see they've bought quite a few percent of the shares in a spin out company. Is that right? Can you explain it short sentences please for the thickies in the audience.
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@FundamentalAnalysis No idea about the warning @Paul .... unless its an arb opp...but I won't be faffing around with that LOL. I'm trying to look at all the assets $SSL has...just to make sure everything stacks up
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@FundamentalAnalysis Windfall Lake Osisko Mining Canada Adv. Exploration 0.5%-1.0% NSR (Is that the asset I think it is? BTW) - This is an $SSL asset
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Paul Not sure why $SSL is down, the Ann mason project is a large project in a safe jurisdiction. It doesn't work in todays environment but $2.75-$3/lb copper it becomes interesting. It represents optionality for sandstorm. Sandstorm will also get involved with financing this huge project at some point in the future maybe 5-10years once the copper market resumes.
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@FundamentalAnalysis Its basically free upside for Sandstorm @Paul Spinoffs and receiving shares are just a way of creating more value for the shareholder ultimately. Just look at $ARL.AX and $her.ax. Warrants gives that extra kicker as well....
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@FundamentalAnalysis @rgrowden Boy that is a long time.....11years and holding.....this capture my interest as its a royalty in $SSL trying to establish potential and whether it will get built and mined.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @MiningBookGuy Oh wow even worse, I saw it this morning UK time on top of the ftse 250 loosers board.....gone from -15% to -almost 30% LOL ~AUfrica
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from #aca.l,
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@FundamentalAnalysis Market is seriously confused, trying to go down, but gold is actually staying fairly constant, may do a mini pullback....but looks like $1200 and above is the level it wants to be. As long as that is the case, I have no issues buying the cheap juniors.
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@FundamentalAnalysis Another company $CGH.L which I just couldn't get my head around...also a not so great jurisdiction but heavy insider buying, new management etc..... has allowed company to make progress.....Kyrgystan if anyone is interested...... 6moz mostly refractory but 0.8moz is amenable to heap leach. Share price done well.....another one of those aim companies.
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@FundamentalAnalysis https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBH5VZE_Y4F3CMcPIzPEB5A - Great channel - adventures in finance podcasts are good.
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from #mbgtrends,
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@mountains_of_glory @FundamentalAnalysis $CGG is a special situation. Because CNG has such a large stake, its credit worthiness is deemed very high since it's backed by the Chinese government. As a result it only makes sense for this company to have a great deal of debt since the interest rate on this highly desirable debt is at least 3X lower than its peers. In a capital-intensive business like this one, having access to all that debt really accelerates growth and affords investors an unusual degree of leverage. As for $ASR, the oxide mine may be running short, but they're having exploration success with satellite deposits and with a completely different deposit called Gediktepe. The latter already has a very attractive PFS. It's interesting to note that $ASR didn't go after $MARL. IR told me they had their hands full already. Saying these things, I appreciate your analysis. The more opinions, eyes, perspectives, the better. Everyone has their own analytical strengths and sees different things.
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from #cgg,
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@FundamentalAnalysis @hihosilver It's not built just for optionality although has those features with some of its development/exploration pipeline which won't work now. That's what makes it good for rising gold prices compared to the other royalty/streamers.
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from #ssl,
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@FundamentalAnalysis @mountains_of_glory Ahh very interesting, in regards to $MARL, maybe the 30% put them off....also when buying $marl, obviously its the cost of buying and then developing the deposit, as oppose to the cost of just working on your own properties. So it was probably cheaper for $ASR to do that. People forget just because a deposit is excellent, there is a cost to take it off someone elses hands, its always better to develop your own even if its less good to a point.
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@FundamentalAnalysis $ACA.L hammered again down 11%..... see @MiningBookGuy I was paying attention :p
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from ~aufrica,
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@Paul Hi - @FundamentalAnalysis. I'm building $SSL and added some yesterday but I think @hihosilver makes a good point because it's something that nags me since the $MARL acquisition: at what point does a streamer take so many risks it can't really be looked at as a streamer any more? Comparing $SSL with, say, $FNV isn't really comparing like for like, is it?
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from #ssl,
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Paul You are correct in that $SSL has taken a big risk but in return, it gets quite honestly one of the best undeveloped gold/copper assets in term of margin in the world and it can double production for a small dilution. (Look at franco nevada and how it grew production past 9 years from 100k to 500+k, allowing share price to increase many multiples - this is what we want $SSL to do - ideally with as little risk as possible). If it pays off, imagine the upside at flat gold prices I would say thats a 75-100% increase just based on that alone, then we have 30% growth in $SSL production if you look at its projected growth (excluding hot maden)......I don't consider $SSL on any level as close to $FNV, $FNV assets are far better, have longer duration etc etc....but for all those business levels benefits you are paying a big price. From a cash flow basis I think $FNV only generated about 12x more then $SSL in 2016 but $ssl is currently about 1/24th of the valuation (excluding recent transaction). $SSL has greater torque to gold/silver/zinc etc price increases as it has some marginal assets i.e Hackett river etc......$ SSL has no way in moving forwards without taking some of these risks - I don't believe there are many financeable assets out there, $FNV has admitted that hence they are looking elsewhere like oil and gas, and $SSL knows that too, hence all the exploration deals being done, and monetizing currents assets. If a streamer/royalty company cannot find good assets there is a longer term problem, ....... Even brent cook talks about the "dearth of good quality assets" I'm hoping $SSL gets bought out one day by $FNV or something. #mbgtrends
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Paul You are correct in that $SSL has taken a big risk but in return, it gets quite honestly one of the best undeveloped gold/copper assets in term of margin in the world and it can double production for a small dilution. (Look at franco nevada and how it grew production past 9 years from 100k to 500+k, allowing share price to increase many multiples - this is what we want $SSL to do - ideally with as little risk as possible). If it pays off, imagine the upside at flat gold prices I would say thats a 75-100% increase just based on that alone, then we have 30% growth in $SSL production if you look at its projected growth (excluding hot maden)......I don't consider $SSL on any level as close to $FNV, $FNV assets are far better, have longer duration etc etc....but for all those business levels benefits you are paying a big price. From a cash flow basis I think $FNV only generated about 12x more then $SSL in 2016 but $ssl is currently about 1/24th of the valuation (excluding recent transaction). $SSL has greater torque to gold/silver/zinc etc price increases as it has some marginal assets i.e Hackett river etc......$ SSL has no way in moving forwards without taking some of these risks - I don't believe there are many financeable assets out there, $FNV has admitted that hence they are looking elsewhere like oil and gas, and $SSL knows that too, hence all the exploration deals being done, and monetizing currents assets. If a streamer/royalty company cannot find good assets there is a longer term problem, ....... Even brent cook talks about the "dearth of good quality assets" I'm hoping $SSL gets bought out one day by $FNV or something. #mbgtrends
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from @fundamentalanalysis,
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@FundamentalAnalysis @BrianBitcoinBull I dont think @Jayfire or @miningbookguy are haters, its more that they think the space has risen to quickly especially Ethereum so pullback is likely. They made a general case albeit like many including myself don't really know the ins and outs of what alt currencies are really about. My argument would be you cannot have a system where you have many many alt currencies rising forever rapidly (unless you actually believe fiat currencies worldwide are dying as quickly ), some altcoins will possibly be just pure crap and will become close to worthless. I even know of someone via someone else who was starting up a new alt coin - I cannot see how that can be any form of value, thats like saying tokens for games online has value. An Altcoin can only have value if it has the potential to become an alternative currency for transactional use, backed by confidence and ideally limited supply otherwise it has no real value. I don't know anything about Ethereum, but heard supply can increase which is worrying maybe you can educate us on why ethereum is a worthy altcoin. I have noticed for a while Bitcoin is gaining traction and have seen many companies/people actually accept bitcoin as a currency. I see that as aspect as a game changer, and strengthens the case should it continue. #mbgtrends
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@BrianBitcoinBull @FundamentalAnalysis I have asked everyone again and again to show me one person you know who actually owns Bitcoin??? None and None and None!!! My Mathematics prove a point about #Bitcoin
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from @brianbitcoinbull,
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@FundamentalAnalysis I also agree, that bitcoin is still very very underowned, if it becomes an alternative currency accepted worldwide.... 1BTC will probably be worth like a $million or something. My friend owns a shed load of bitcoins.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @BrianBitcoinBull And most importantly the 21million means squat.....the only thing that matters is how accepted bitcoin becomes worldwide thats the value.
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anonymous @fundamentalanalysis Just curious how much Bitcoin do you personally own?
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from #bitcoin,
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@FundamentalAnalysis I don't own bitcoin......more to do with lazyness and security concerns if I bought a material stake. I've known about bitcoin for years....and was never against it...actually liked the concept but too lazy to do the homework, was working full time back then. But the reality of how important it remains for transactional value, is what counts.
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BrianBitcoinBull @FundamentalAnalysis I agree then most people who say its a Bubble own none or know nobody who personally does. #Bitcoin
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BrianBitcoinBull @FundamentalAnalysis where was you Fundamental Analysis at $10 for ETH when I told everyone publicly on here to get in????? I been it Bitcoin since $275. Suck it fool!!
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@FundamentalAnalysis @BrianBitcoinBull Didn't know about ETH at all.....only known about Bitcoin.
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@FundamentalAnalysis Also I don't have the time to analyse every single thing out there @BrianBitcoinBull. Crypto analysis would take a lot of research, different to what I'm used to.
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@Vaughan @FundamentalAnalysis, here is a little snippet on etereum: Ethereum’s smart contracts use blockchain stored applications for contract negotiation and facilitation. The benefit of these contracts is that the blockchain provides a decentralized way to verify and enforce them. The decentralized aspect makes it incredibly difficult for fraud or censorship. Ethereum’s smart contracts aim to provide greater security than traditional contracts and bring down the associated costs.
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from #mbgtrends,
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BrianBitcoinBull @FundamentalAnalysis I must have misread one of you comments. My apologies on that aspect. With regards to Crypto I mean what I say.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Vaughan Thanks ......so how could that make say ethereum coins itself valuable....the technology behind it appears to be. Does it have transactional use like Bitcoin does now with companies accepting it.
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from #mbgtrends,
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@FundamentalAnalysis @stateside surprinsingly not....I don't know about other ceo.ca users but I don't measure my life in $$$ and what I can buy with it. Hence I don't have an addictive personality looking for short term gratification..
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from #index,
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@stateside @FundamentalAnalysis - that's the way to live life for sure. Well done.
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from @stateside,
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Vaughan I don't like the idea more can be created for Ethereum, digital currency and you can create more.....sounds like a cashless society LOL
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from #mbgtrends,
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@Vaughan I hear you @FundamentalAnalysis, and i imagine this is why banks are onboard. Its the same game all over again under the guise of something different. Brilliant really....
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from #mbgtrends,
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Vaughan Absolutely, based on that I have no idea what the intrinsic value for Ethereum could be. At least for bitcoin we have a limit, and then if it becomes mainstream where you can transact with it, and its backed by confidence then bitcoin has value. For now most bitcoin holders aren't transacting with it (as in shopping)....they are using it as a speculative tool, and somewhat as a store of value, where the value is measured by $$$ (so they still think in terms of $$$). If it rises as fast as it does, I'm not sure people would want to spend it. Maybe it only becomes used for large transfers and not for everyday shopping/spending.... who knows....so then the question is how much value do we attribute to BTC knowing it could become the number 1 form of making transfers (Outside the system) around the world bit like a #dark pool. Whatever number you can attribute to that divided by the no of bitcoins in existence is the potential value. At the moment we have a $36bn dollar market.....
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from #mbgtrends,
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@Paul @FundamentalAnalysis - you make a good case for $SSL doing what it has to do in a market where there a fewer easy pickings for streamers as producers have become more confident and less needy. A changed situation requires creative and adventurous decision making. At the same time, I remember an interview Nolan Watson gave some 3 years or so ago where he explained that to minimise risk the normal streaming deal should be about 7% of a company's value and definitely no higher than about 12%. Those figures are from memory and might not be precise but they're not far off. These days he seems to be willing to take on a much higher ownership almost as a matter of routine. It could be argued it's turning $SSL into a different kind of company and - as a result - it's going to need a new customer base attracted less to the relative safety offered by streamers and at home with greater risk usually associated with miners.
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from @paul,
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@Paul @FundamentalAnalysis - Hi and thanks. You make an excellent case for $SSL doing what it has to do in a market where there a fewer easy pickings for streamers as producers have become more confident and less needy. A changed situation requires creative and adventurous decision making. At the same time, I remember an interview Nolan Watson gave some 3 years or so ago where he explained that to minimise risk the normal streaming deal should be about 7% of a company's value and definitely no higher than about 12%. Those figures are from memory and might not be precise but they're not far off. These days he seems to be willing to take on a much higher ownership almost as a matter of routine. It could be argued it's turning $SSL into a different kind of company and - as a result - it's going to need a new customer base attracted less to the relative safety offered by streamers and at home with greater risk usually associated with miners.
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from #mbgtrends,
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Paul That's a good observation and I agree unfortunately..... I'm willing to bet desperation to drive shareholder value is what lead to the transaction. There really is a lack of good assets. I'm sure Nolan and team have a plan, they aren't idiots...but they have taken on more risk then they probably would have liked. I read the article posted by @racker one of the lines seems like total fear mongering. Most people don't give neutral views....to talk of turkey as 3rd world is absolutely ridiculous lol, in fact the family links gives us high confidence the mine will be built, I also don't believe turkey wants to alienate the west why get into a tiff for 30% ownership. There is a company called Stratex in london who recently sold their MINORITY stake in a turkish mine to the turkish partner for an ok price given project was losing money. (as to if they have received the money I don't know and not followed up). Also people forget there are companies which operate successfully in turkey. Alacer, Alamos come to mind. they operate well because they have a partner so all is fair, foreigners are not grabbing it all. #mbgtrends I spoke to the $MARL management team, when I met them, and some of the majors I think $TECK couldn't operate in turkey and move forwards because they had 100% ownership, even though turkish mining laws allow for 100% foreign ownership really they want a piece of the pie....hence why most the mines operated by foreign partners tend to have a turkish partner of some sort.
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from #ssl,
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@FundamentalAnalysis I just hope shareholders haven't pressured the management team to push forwards without the due diligence (but we will get clarity on that if the transaction closes)....because I know the market wanted $SSL to do some more big deals.
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@FundamentalAnalysis I'm sure the pressure is on Nolan to get this right if he screws this up I would consider his reputation over, that's why I believe they have a plan he would have to be an absolute idiot to not have one (UK takeover rules has stopped the communication so people are speculating in many cases negatively).....I don't think people would forget....there is a point where one says Nice guy but too many errors LOL
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@FundamentalAnalysis I would like to think Nolan with ACA CFA, qualifications I'm familiar with isn't an idiot LOL
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@Paul Hi - @FundamentalAnalysis. The fears about Turkey always struck me as overdone and mainly to come from North American investors. My own theory is that Europeans and North Americans tend to see Turkey differently. Europeans see Turkey as an eastern extension of Europe: that was the case before the Great War and as recently as being considered for inclusion in the EC. I think it's possible Americans see Turkey instead as more a part of the whole Middle East chaos. It could be the Americans are right and in tune with the times. For what it's worth, I think the $MARL/$SSL merger was a creative solution born of frustrated need - and a rather elegant solution, too. In my own portfolio, what I have done is simply move funds that were in $MARL to $SSL to follow the story and in some ways I am more comfortable in this larger, more diversified and somewhat adventurous vehicle. I had come to feel that half of the leadership of $MARL was well-meaning but totally useless and maybe it's as well to put the company out of its misery. I used to be invested in $SSL last year and maybe I'm just glad for the chance to get on board again but it doesn't feel like quite the same company as it was. Not worse, just different.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Paul I've just been researching about Turkish politics still a lot more to do.....my biggest fear for now for the sake of Hot Maden would actually be gulen regaining power given the whole fiasco re: politics AKP etc... There will be asset seizure risk if erdogan lost control......thats the black swan
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from #ssl,
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@Paul @FundamentalAnalysis. IMHO the time to worry about that is if or when it happens. There should be plenty of liquidity in $SSL to jump ship with everybody else. Not like $MARL in the old days when sometimes you couldn't sell a 1000 or so.
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@FundamentalAnalysis http://gbreports.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Turkey_Mining2014.pdf @Paul ..... I've spent the last 2-3 hours reading articles on turkish politics, turkeys mining laws....I'm just not convinced that I should be severely worried. I'm actually more comfortable. The main risk is what I mentioned erdogan losing power, erdogan seized assets from the opposition, so the opposition would do the same. The political battle will continue...the politics definitely isn't stable from my readings so thats the risk there is always a threat of another coup, and erdogan will need to keep the whole thing in order....the yes vote actually helps him. #mbgtrends I actually welcome articles which tells me what I'm missing so readers please find an opposing view....
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from #ssl,