Trying to predict the future is never an easy task. However, we can look to the past for some clues. The biggest junior mining bull market that I can recall in my lifetime occurred between 2002 and 2006/07. I remember seeing portfolio values jump by 5%-6% per day for multiple days in a row during the peak of the euphoria in early 2006. And i'm not talking about a portfolio of 5 juniors, i'm talking about a broad portfolio of 50+ holdings.
While some of us may have felt like this has been happening in the last week or so, I can assure you this is NOT April/May 2006. In fact, by most accounts we are still probably only in the 3rd or 4th inning (baseball has 9 innings) of this bull market. Check out this chart comparing the current gold bull to previous ones:
If gold is indeed resuming its secular (as opposed to cyclical) ultra long term bull market climb then we will need to at least see new all-time highs in US Dollar terms before we experience a real 20%+ correction to shake loose the market and reset sentiment.
2020 is a year like none of us have experienced before. We are seeing the world change in ways that few anticipated, and most importantly the transformation is still taking shape and apparently gaining momentum. The global finance capital of the world, the United States, is undergoing a painful and tumultuous year of chaos and upheaval. Gold is a bastion of fortitude and certainty in an ocean of uncertainty, fear, and unrest. I don't see this changing anytime soon.
I will also expound upon why I think the US Dollar is well on its way to losing its reserve currency status later today in my 4pm EST webinar.
One more thing to ponder is the US election in November of this year. In February/March I predicted that Trump was finished, and that his faulty response to the virus and shoot from hip loose lips and tweets would eventually be his undoing. Prediction markets now have Biden at more than a 60% probability of getting elected as POTUS in November. On multiple occasions in recent interviews Bob Moriarty of 321gold kept telling me there wouldn't be an election in November because Trump would drop out when it became clear he was going to lose in a landslide. This scenario appears increasingly more likely. Trump is fragile and tired, and we are all tired of him and his tweets and other bullshit. Biden is probably going to be worse, but people will vote for "change"...
The US is about to go from the pot into the frying pan....
P.S. Please save the hate mail if you are a MAGA, I call it like it I see it and I am non-partisan. Both presidential choices make me sad to be an American but this appears to be what we have to go through to get to the other side. I believe in the long term strength and resilience of Americans and the principles of liberty, freedom, and the pursuit of happiness that this Country was founded upon.
DISCLAIMER: The work included in this article is based on current events, technical charts, company news releases, and the author’s opinions. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. This publication contains forward-looking statements, including but not limited to comments regarding predictions and projections. Forward-looking statements address future events and conditions and therefore involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements. This publication is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always thoroughly do your own due diligence and talk to a licensed investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Junior resource companies can easily lose 100% of their value so read company profiles on www.SEDAR.com for important risk disclosures. It’s your money and your responsibility.