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@HRA-Coffin It's the person who passed it to you that was silly about it. I've always been impressed at how few of my (and Brent's) subscribers post stuff here. It doesn't make a lot of sense if you're paying for it, especially when you're getting something with a longer accumulation period. Why encourage others to increase the price if its not time yet? And I know Brent and Joe had a number of caveats (they always do) which maybe weren't included in the post here. I didn't see it.
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@HRA-Coffin Some maybe @RocketRed but I've never felt unsafe in Manhattan and I've been all over it a few times.
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@HRA-Coffin I don't know if they have drill results, they may have some by now. They are probably thinking about that. Not sure I would. You have to stick to pretty careful and non promotional wording in a resource estimate release since the engineers have to sign off on that too. A drill result release you can turn @TheGalvanizer loose and let him prose it to the high heavens...;) $VTT
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@HRA-Coffin You never know when Castro is going to send another bunch of boatloads of refugees your way @Goldfinger. You can't be too careful...
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@Goldfinger @HRA-Coffin True story lol
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@HRA-Coffin I think everyone - management included - was a bit optimistic about how fast the engineers could get the job done. Look at the sections for zones 3-5. That is not a simple modelling job. Ironically, its probably easier to mine something like that underground than it is to model it.
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@HRA-Coffin Vancouver is one big real estate ad, from end to end. Not sure what the billboard, bus stop ad space owners and local paper are going to do if real estate rolls over. It's about 80% of the ad buys around here from what I can see.
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@HRA-Coffin ceo.ca clients will pick up the slack @tommy?
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@Goldfinger @HRA-Coffin we know Vancouver is bonkers, I'm talking boring US real estate here, not even the flashy beach or high end stuff.
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@HRA-Coffin I blame @Goldfinger personally @RocketRed. That handle should have been a tip off to us all.
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@HRA-Coffin I think its "early birds" @RocketRed. Early worms get, well, you know...unless we're talking corpses. They the early worms are the smart ones.
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@HRA-Coffin You could make one @Goldenboy. No idea if one exists.
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@Highheat @HRA-Coffin I guess $XPL Solitario Exploration & Royalty Corp's purchase of $VTT at .05 is working out pretty well for them.
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@RocketRed @HRA-Coffin Oh them Worms got us beat
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@HRA-Coffin Would work out better for $VTT management if they had the stones to exercise their warrants. I understand some of Solitario's shareholders aren't happy about them dragging their feet on that though there is no rush for them to do it really. I can see why they would wait.
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@HRA-Coffin My sense is that $XPL is there for the buyout but I haven't talked to them about their position @Highheat. Would make sense as I'm sure they can do the math. $VTT
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@Highheat @HRA-Coffin I have been building a position in $XPL the last couple of days but they don't do anything quickly. Chris Herald is very conservative/methodical for sure. Lot of value in the stock though in my eyes but not sexy.
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@Andrew @HRA-Coffin I liked the $PRG NR today. When is it expected that the company will be finished drilling at Ginger Ridge? When might they be ready to start drilling the G.R. East target? Mid July?
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@HRA-Coffin I think $VTT management was a bit frustrated as they felt there was a gentleman's agreement that they could call on Solitario and Resource Capital to exercise when the funds were needed. Both of them later decided they preferred the "optionality" though I understood from the Resource Capital guys that there is some sort of tax issue too. You might know that better than I @highheat as its some IRS regulation that is causing the issue. It's not critical anymore with the financing VTT just did anyway and the stock's in good hands.
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@HRA-Coffin Probably sooner than mid-July @Andrew. I'm pretty sure the planned holes on the main grid are done now, or really close to being done. They have to hump everything over to the new camp/pad location which takes a few days but not much longer. I assume the drill will be turning again in a week to ten days maybe. $PRG
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@HRA-Coffin Probably fine @Newton. I know you can't see anything in the high grade section of the discovery hole at GR and its a lot higher grade than that. I don't think we know how much surface weathering would affect some of the assays, especially the base metals. The outcrop there is not fresh. Its pretty much saprolite, even though the oxidation doesn't go deep because everything weathers fast in that part of the world (lots of rain and topography). $PRG
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@HRA-Coffin I think $PRG management is pretty happy with the trenches yes @Andrew. Obviously, you would always like to get boomer assays but I think they were just relieved to get strong anomalous numbers across good widths in several trenches, and they were interested to see a good trench in part of the GR zone that didn't have much of a soil anomaly over it. They know from the main GR area that you don't necessarily get high grades even right on top of higher grade area at depth. There's nothing amazing at surface above the discovery hole for instance. $PRG
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@Andrew @HRA-Coffin Now, if only $SMD would put a 1 year freeze on selling any additional shares of $PRG the company may have much greater impact upon the announcement of an eventual discovery. (Another one anyway).
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@HRA-Coffin I'm surprised at $SMD. They should know better than most that the timing doesn't make sense. And its not because they know anything we don't. They were very careful about not being an "insider" in anything but percentage holdings so its not like management is telling them things ahead of the market. It would be a pretty large understatement to say that Jeff and Mike are frustrated with them. They should just give Jeff a chance to find a buyer for X shares. He does know how to do that, and they clearly don't.
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@Andrew @HRA-Coffin That is a scenario that I hope comes to fruition in the future, but I have a feeling it will take another discovery to hopefully bring in another partner who will buy all of their shares. $PRG
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Jeff Wilson @Andrew @HRA-Coffin regarding the $PRG NR today and ongoing and follow up drilling, we ($PRG) will be moving the rig from the main Ginger Ridge zone to the new East zone in the coming days. There may be a bit of time allocated to prepping up paths to drill sites and an interim camp but I expect drilling here to commence relatively soon.
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@tommy It may be too big for @hra-coffin
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@HRA-Coffin $KG I'll wait for assays. Peter's ALWAYS got a theory...
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@tommy @HRA-Coffin "this is one where u could really make a name for urself by backing early"
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@HRA-Coffin $KG I like Peter. Our daughters are good friends. His practically lived at my place through grade 12. I like the idea of finding the source of the Klondike goldfields but lots of people have tried. His theory makes more sense than most I've seen but with Tommy pumping I'd better wait for numbers. You know how he gets...
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@HRA-Coffin Oh please
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@HRA-Coffin Hacking is a bit strong @JamesKwantes. @Andrew is free to voice whatever opinion he chooses and he's not the only one who's frustrated. I get plenty of email on the subject believe me. I don't disagree with the fact $SMD was good to write a cheque when they did and, yes, the ultimate intent is to make money on it. It wasn't charity and I for one would have been happy to see them not exercise their warrants. It's nice for PRGs treasury that they did but it puts them in ta tough position when it comes to being able to sell. Don't think I don't sympathize with their situation. Selling the way they are will make it much more difficult for PRG management to engineer a cross if that is what they want, though. There's a right way to do that. That's not a hack. Just market common sense. I'm not speaking for management either James. I was merely responding to Andrew's completely understandable frustration. That said, the SMD crew are explorers and if PRG makes a discovery I suspect they would sit back and see how things turn out, not sell into volume immediately. They've been in that position themselves enough times.
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@JamesKwantes Fair enough, guys, and I was not targeting @Andrew with my comments. Nor am I trying to silence anybody @HRA-Coffin, and I get the frustration of PRG shareholders. $SMD ain't the enemy here though. In my books, comments like "stupid" "idiots" & not knowing how the market works are hacking. The $TG spinout puts the lie to the latter point, anyways. And acting against their shareholders' best interests is one accusation against SMD that just plain rings false. They're PRG's largest shareholder and a rising tide would obviously be in everybody's best interests here. From latest results it looks like they're on that path - I wish them well & I'm sure the SMD crew does as well
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@HRA-Coffin When did we start speaking in tongues around here?
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@HRA-Coffin Agreed DanO. One problem Mark has had from day one is that the historic data has been lacking. He knows the generalities but there is surprisingly little specific useful info on, say, Overlook and Key West and Key East. $K never wanted to share until recently, and not much even now. Seems like Echo Bay was never that forthcoming with public info and they mined them before Kinross took them over. I was surprised how little was in the public record. Mark has gotten his hands on some things privately but has had to infer a lot. I think the next release will go into what the stratigraphy in the oversight hole(s) looks like in relation to the stratigraphy around the Overlook ore zones so people will have more context. He commented the other day that he probably should do that. $ADZ
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@HRA-Coffin It is. And 5 g/t is what Overlook graded, more ore less. DanO's comment about 5 g/t being "not a lot" doesn't account for the geometry, which was quite good. The zones were thick and the mining costs were quite decent. By all accounts - coming from local landholders ADZ has done access deal with who own surface rights and got royalty cheques from Echo Bay - they did quite well mining 5 g/t material with a $300 gold price. If ADZ can find a few hundred thousand ounces with similar geometry and depth it will be worth real money and whatever else they find on larger targets elsewhere on the project will be a bonus. $ADZ
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@HRA-Coffin Time will tell @rdww. I think $ADZ is doing the right thing by starting where they have the most info but that doesn't mean I don't think they will hit anywhere else. I think Mark will make 3-4 discoveries, we just don't know what the size and grade will be until they are drilled. And the average grade at Overlook belies the fact that it generated some really nice drill intercepts along the way.
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@Chiel @HRA-Coffin a few hundred thousand ounces? I thought you were looking for a few million ounces of gold #promo
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@HRA-Coffin $ADZ has had more than its share of momentum buyers and they tend not to be the patient sort. @toki is right that you can get big swings merely on someone taking money off the table and someone else assuming they "know something" and selling and the next thing you know everyone is freaking out. FWIW I haven't heard anything concerning from the company and I don't think they have any assays back anyway, so I'm not sure what someone would "know". It's just trading from what I can see.
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@HRA-Coffin In my experience, and I've got quite a bit, its a good idea to ALWAYS assume the third party engineering stuff will come in late. I could probably count on the fingers of one hand how often engineering groups doing economic studies or resource estimates actually come in ahead of schedule, and in the case of $VTT the process was held up for the financing so I don't know if this is even "late" in this case really. I remember $GQCs updated PEA coming out early and when Bill Fisher called to tell me it was being released ahead of schedule I thought he was messing with me. That's how rare it is.
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@HRA-Coffin Who knows Rocket but the number isn't unrealistic if the grade is there. I personally hate the idea of Kinross thinking they are the only game in town, because they might try to lowball things. That said, with a milland tailings in place that is currently idle a million ounces could be extremely valuable to them. The potential margin is large for them because of existing infrastructure that is already a sunk cost. Even a relatively small deposit, well under a million ounces, could be worth tens of millions in that scenario. I also would not discount the potential for a third party to come in that wants to buy a resource or buy all of $ADZ AND buy the Kinross mill. $K might not love that scenario but if it gets them out from under the environmental liability of reclaiming the mill and tailings area and gets them a nice cheque on top of it they might go for it. That's why I like the fact Mark is thinking big picture and not just thinking "mill feed" now. There are lots of ways this could play out with some exploration success.
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@RocketRed I agree @HRA-Coffin ones never knows could also be a bidding war depending on success of $adz drilling campaign "if" the targets starts hitting nice gold grades that is going to be a huge plus with many targets to drill and no reason we won't see some high grade stuff like what Echo Bay and Kinross Mined
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@HRA-Coffin You've got to be kidding. Cosby can't seriously believe that would fly? He should be giving talks on the art of self-delusion. Clearly a master.
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@tim_oliver @HRA-Coffin - usually the client wants to issue a news release with study results, especially positive results, as soon as they are calculated. Then the 45-day period kicks in and the engineer better be able to finish the report by then. I've always counseled my clients to hold their horses until the report is ready for SEDAR. They never listen. Often the result is a revision correcting the mistakes made in haste. Never get between a Jr. and a news release with positive study results. #Engineering
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@tim_oliver @HRA-Coffin - In my experience the delays are often caused by the owner's inability to decide what they want to do. Results are not crystal clear. Maybe the property makes an acceptable IRR (my favorite yardstick) only in the case of a large mine with high initial capital, but the benefit of economy of scale. Believe me, it gets hairy. I've never seen an owner just hand off the study to the engineer and wait for it to be finished. The owner's rep sits in on all the engineering meetings. Behind the scenes, the owner is calling the shots. #Engineering
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@HRA-Coffin Whenever a company IPOs there is an argument about pricing. Management often wants to maximize the price and, in fact, gets hammered if there is too much of a post=IPO lift because existing shareholders think they could have gotten a better deal. Smart management realizes you have to leave something on the table when you list and give buyers a chance for good gains. You can prices thing to extract the maximum valuation from the market but, if you do you will run into two obvious problems. One is that the IPO will be very hard to sell. The other is that it will be even harder for buyers of the IPO or seed rounds to find anyone to sell to. Why buy a deal if its fully valued the day it goes public? I think $FWZ management chose a good level that got them fairly non-dilutive money through the IPO but still left plenty of the table for those buying in the market. I'm sure @Brandon and the lads had some "interesting" discussions among themselves and with the listing broker about pricing.
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@HRA-Coffin Given how many studies you've authored @tim_oliver I know you're familiar with the concept of materiality as it applies to public companies. If the engineers pass along the results of their study (as we both know they will) as it nears completion and those results are (I sincerely hope - and expect) highly material then management really can't sit on them for long without creating liability issues for themselves. They sure as hell can't sit on them for 45 days. I understand where you're coming from but I think its a 2 way street. At the end of the day its management that has to decide what happens to the project and how its developed, if its developed at all. They have a pretty big vested interest in economic studies being practical and its inevitable there will be a tug of war between management that wants the most bang for their buck and outside engineers that over-engineer because they have liabilities of their own to worry about. I agree that it creates a confusing situation for third parties that have to decipher the studies later. I suppose that could be solved by making it a black box where no one but the engineers know what the study looks like until the moment its released. I would never go along with that if I was management as I've seen too many crappy engineering studies and I know you have too. $VTT
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@CriticalInvestor @HRA-Coffin As far as I know, capable management almost always has their own ideas and views, and it is almost always a collaboration with the outside engineers to detail/optimize those views, and management is often very well informed every step of the way. Not sure if they would like to avoid black box situations because of a focus on cost/engineering quality as the top priority in most cases, it's more the economic results (and the parameters of the design) they want to monitor throughout as far as I know.
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