The stock market was sliding about 1.7% on Friday after a crucial jobs report showed the U.S. labour market cooled more than expected. Despite the unemployment rate edging back down to 4.2%, the number of nonfarm payrolls the U.S. economy added last month came in well below expectations. For August, the U.S. economy added 142,000 jobs, which came in below the 165,000 jobs economists estimated would be added. 

The market is now pricing in a 61% chance the Fed cuts rates by 50 bp when it meets on Sept. 17 and Sept. 18, which caused investors to pile into bonds.

From a technical analysis perspective, the SPY formed a double top pattern near the all-time high of $565.16 on July 16 and Aug. 30 and in reaction to that formation, the market ETF looks set to clock about a 4.2% decline this week. 

The SPY Chart: Although the SPY has declined heavily since the market opened on Tuesday, volume has been steadily decreasing, which indicates a bounce may be on the horizon for next week. On Friday, the SPY dropped through the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which likely accelerated selling pressure. 

  • While the SPY's drop this week negated the uptrend the ETF had been trading in between Aug. 5 and Aug. 30, a downtrend hasn't yet been confirmed on the daily chart with the formation of a lower high. When the SPY bounces, bearish traders want to see a bearish candlestick, such as a doji or shooting star candlestick, form under $564.20 to confirm the new trend.
  • Bullish traders want to see continued decreasing volume and then for the SPY to form a bullish reversal candlestick, such as a doji or hammer candlestick, which could indicate the local bottom has formed. If the SPY closes near it's low-of-day, the most likely scenarios for Monday are either an inside bar or a further decline before at least a relief bounce comes on Tuesday. 
  • If the SPY erases some of its weekly losses before the close on Friday and closes the trading session with a lower wick, a bounce within an inside bar may come on Monday, although the 50-day SMA is likely to act as resistance for at least the short term.

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