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Out of 894 contestants, the winner of the 2019 CEO.ca #StockPickingContest is: @GOLDFINGER
The top 10 win a CEO.ca Leather jacket, thanks to @robby, and the top 50 winners receive a CEO.ca 2019 Contest Mug, thanks to @HRA-Coffin. I will private message the winners to coordinate the prize dispersal. And look, I came in 4th place, and more importantly I finally beat @TheGalvanizer at something!
Additionally, here is a list of the top 10 "HAT TRICKS" <- where ALL THREE PICKS WERE POSITIVE
You'll notice that no one in the top 10 of the initial contest had all three stocks positive. Yes, it is that hard!
Two years ago we had 431 contestants in the 2018 #StockPickingContest and only 31 of those people ended the year above zero. Saying it was a horrific year is an understatement! Only 1 person had a portfolio over 100%, and ten people were above 20%. These numbers were abysmal and make you wonder why anyone would have invested in such a speculative market?
The simple answer: hope!
In 2019 the statistics were slightly more promising. We had 894 people enter the contest and 30% wouldn't have lost money. Heck, even 17% had a portfolio over 20%. Almost all top 20 were up over 100%, and we had one person who more than doubled, one of CEO.ca's top contributors and our winner: the mighty @Goldfinger.
Although he will say that much of it was luck, considering his one pick skyrocketed more than 600%, I've been a subscriber to his CEO Technician Trading Lab for over 3 years now and can attest that there is definitely some skill involved in his picks.
Check out his post from 2018 just before the contest started:
If you are interested in joining the Lab, please read this older article by @SaskExpress highlighting what you can expect Trading Lab: A User's Perspective
The 2020 Contest is now underway with 1,506 people accounted for so I suspect this article will probably be read by at least 1,000 people. Cheers to exponential growth, I think we may be onto something here!
With that said, please read the statistics below because the truth can be extremely painful. Never mind hope, what we all need is a financial game plan! Please, if you do not have a financial planner I beg you to set that as a 2020 goal. A good friend Pete shared his 2019 Lessons Learned and I highly recommend at least a quick skim! https://petepanda.com/2019-lessons-learned/
Spend a moment and look closely at these pie charts. Lets compare how contestants have performed over the last 3 years starting with 2017
I find it fascinating that when reflecting on the 2019 year, most people tell me it was positive. I think they may be just comparing it to 2018.
Here are the 752 companies that were picked in this years contest:
Looking at the total number of companies that performed badly to the total number of contestants that chose poorly, one would conclude that contestants prefer to pick companies that will fail them. Let's investigate this further.
First rewind and look at the most picked companies from 2018:
And now, the 2019 most picked companies:
Looking at the numbers above, I am reminded of this Predator II quote HERE (Just listen to the first few seconds of it hehe).
But honestly, can we assume this trend will continue?
Although the answer may seem obvious, consider this: these are the stocks that everyone believed would be the massive winners, so had we been in a bull market, wouldn't these have been the golden ticket companies? Can't we just blame it on the dreadful bear market that the Venture exchange has been on for how long now? It's the dream of 100-baggers that keep all of us at the table like a bad poker player.
Here are some of the worst performers of 2019. Note the number of people who chose these stocks.
Could you imagine losing 97% of your position? I really want to comment further but I will refrain from doing so. The numbers speak for themselves.
And here are the top performers. Aside from $GBR and $MAI which I believe were two outstanding companies in 2019, there doesn't seem to be many people picking these companies.
Anyway, it was a fun year and I hope we all learned a lesson or two. I believe we are all bullish heading into 2020. As a contrarian thinker, I tend to be skeptical, but I can't help feel a bit giddy myself. I am reminded of early 2016 when everyone was basically throwing darts at the board and pulling 50% gains in a month. Yes, those where the days, and yes, that did happen! But the last three years have been all about risk management and self-discipline. So, stay safe my friends and do your due diligence.
And more good news!
My website www.EverythingEven.com has our first site sponsor.
This is actually a pretty big deal for @Mathematics and me, as Fireweed Zinc is a company that we have been following since its inception (I was in the IPO) and we both already own shares in it. It's also one of my picks for the 2020 contest. The CEO is a millennial who we have met at numerous shows and is a frequent poster here on CEO.ca under the alias @Brandon. He has been very influential over the years, and I am ecstatic that his company will be an active part of this year's contest. I recommend contestants take note as Fireweed is going to be announcing extra prizes (and not always for best overall performance) just to spice things up.
The past few years have been rough for everyone. As a previous moderator for CEO.ca, which was truly a positively life altering experience, I had conversations with people who admitted risking everything in hopes of recovering from wicked losses. The 2018 year was horrendous. These conversations always made my stomach churn but also struck a cord with me.
Understanding your cognitive biases and investment decision making processes requires deep internal reflection, something many of us are too scared to do. It was years before I realized that I was the problem. But you owe it to yourself to be better. If you seek something different, you need to be different, you need to change your approach. Start by seeking a financial adviser.
My goal in life is to one day build a charitable donations platform (I have a very different approach to what is out there today) but I recognize that I need to change many things within before I can even attempt to start that dream: "In order to change the world, you must first change yourself" - C. JoyBell C.
I would like to end by reminding people that this contest is just for fun, and none of it should be taken too seriously. People take wild shots as their picks, and there is a lot of luck involved. I always pick companies I am invested in. That way I feel like I bring a little something more to the table but most people are just shooting from the hip. Always do your own due diligence.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only! All statements in this report, other than statements of historical fact should be considered forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events or future performance. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always identified by the use of words such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe" and similar expressions. Much of this report is comprised of statements of projection. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. Risks and uncertainties respecting mineral exploration companies are generally disclosed in the annual financial or other filing documents of those and similar companies as filed with the relevant securities commissions, and should be reviewed by any reader of this report.
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Never, ever, make an investment based solely on what you read in an online report, including this one, especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn't well known.
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