Filled with excitement, 894 people were eager to share their prestige stock picks as part of the long anticipated 2019 CEO.ca Stock Picking Contest. Up from 431 contestants last year, and from 126 the year before, the stakes are getting exponentially higher, as are the bragging rights! With the first quarter almost over, let's review the statistics and see where we all fit in.
As I began to write this article I pondered...
- How did those late 2018 FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) plays turn out?
- Would the PDAC curse reign over the juniors again in 2019?
- Who are the current leaders in the contest, and what did they know that I didn't when they made their picks?
All contest data can be found at my website www.EverythingEven.com
- 894 contestants each chose 3 companies
- 754 different companies were chosen
- % of companies up (358/754) = 47%
- % of companies in the negative (357/754) = 47%
- % of companies with no change (41/754) = 6%
- $RNX was the most popular stock chosen with 83 people, followed by $SIC (75) and $Grat (58) See Full List Here:
Contestant Statistics. (As of march 11th, 2019)
Portfolios that are:
- Above 25% (93/894) = 10%
- Above 10% (230/894) = 26%
- Above 0% (388/894) = 43% therefore 57% are negative or zero
- Below 10% (291/894) = 33%
I did notice that over the last couple of weeks the spread has increased. I am cautioned at the increasing percentage of people who are already down more than 10% and I question how they will fare over the next couple of months when considering both the PDAC curse and the "Sell in May and Go Away" thesis.
About half of the companies in the contest are above zero. Additionally, 43% of people in the contest have portfolios above zero. That's not stellar news but its definitely not bad considering the industry we are gambling in. Here are the top 21 performers in 2019 so far:
Look at those gains!
A friend/mentor of mine, @Goldfinger "who is currently in 2nd place" runs the TradingLab and was buying $AMX at $0.17 in early December. On Dec 27th, 2018 he posted this to subscribers:
Below are the 'most chosen' companies in the contest. I consider these as part of the FOMO plays. I'm not saying FOMO is bad, Im just thinking one should be extra careful when everyone is 'already' invested in a company and excited about its 'to the moon' potential. I've owned 6 of these at one point and currently own 2.
- (13/21) = 62% of these companies are currently in the negative yet still within standard deviation of the full data set above so I wouldn't infer too much from this but...
I would note if these are the companies everyone is raving about, wouldn't you think they should be statistically significant? I.e. there should be more positive companies than at least one standard deviation from the norm?
It is always scary when you see 75 people chose $SIC and its down 38% or even worse, $GRAT down a whopping 50%. But sometimes FOMO can be a good thing. I remember looking at $SUNM while compiling the contest data and thinking hrmm... I've never heard of this one although it seems like a lot of people already have - I should have a look! Or what about $CANN - my word! Congrats to everyone with that pick!
I think the biggest thing to take away from all this is to look at the spread of the gain/losses. If you ever #LoadUp on a single stock, especially in this industry, you're setting yourself up for a very difficult future. You may get 1 or 2 right but it'll eventually come back to bite you in the ass. So be careful my friends. You absolutely, positively need a risk management plan AND you need to recognize your own ignorance and biases so you can make better decisions and not get caught up in the excitement.
I created this Google Sheets file for everyone to browse the stock data - just click the link below the picture.
Link to the Google Sheet HERE
NOTE: I need to manually find all stock splits, mergers, roll backs etc. So if you spot something I missed - let me know asap and I will get it updated.
Remember the rule about sub 3 cent stocks. Picks were to be above 3 cents, so if they were chosen and it closed Jan 4th below 3 cents, they started off in the negative.
Don't forget to give Eric Coffin a big thank you for supporting the contest and getting us those CEO.ca mugs. He is very friendly to chat with here on CEO.ca and his newsletter is well worth the small cost.
And @Robby from #Bergdex
who is going to give CEO.ca logo'd leather jackets and hats to the top 10 winners. Additionally, if he wins, he said he will buy everyone in the contest a CEO.ca logo'd jacket! So lets all cheer on @robby for the win! he is currently in 5th place and was 1st last week!
And of course a HUGE thank you to Tommy, and the boys at CEO.CA who have made this wonderful site for us all to use. I couldn't recommend a better product than their CEO PRO subscription for Level 2 access.
Management Tracker Program Update:
Its going to cost me a bit more money than I originally intended. I'm paying out of pocket to get this built and will give it to the community for free as I feel it will be a great tool for everyone to have access to. So if you want to make a donation to help get it built let me know but for now it is going to take a bit more time as I scrape for change between the sofa seats.
The program shows the links between people & companies. I've got the data! I just need to massage it and have it built into a user friendly program.
Original post HERE:
Original Video explaining the idea:
I mentioned back in December when I finished being a moderator for CEO.ca that I was going to take some time away but still wanted to do the stock contests as I know the community enjoys it. When I was moderating, people would private message me about their financial situation. People often invest in these penny stocks because they are hoping for a clear win to get them into a better position. Many people are leveraged and have these stocks on their line of credits. This just makes my stomach turn as I realize these people are statistically positioned to lose everything. If I can share anything with you all it is to be careful with your hard-earned dollars. In any situation, if there exists an opportunity for someone to take your money, they will. Speak with a Financial Planner and make 2019 a year of learning and not a year of pain. Do not rely on hope, that is not how you deal with risk.
Additionally, I mentioned a couple months ago I was getting back to the finer things in life and doing more stuff I enjoy. Just an update, one of my trucks is near completion - just debating on whether to rebuild the original 318 engine or find a 360 short box and rebuild that.
I post these pictures because I want to remind people about doing the things you love and enjoy. I think over the last couple years I got a bit too deep into the mining industry, studying stocks and performing market analysis while learning how to build programs to automate tasks. I wanted to take a step away and do something more tangible as a hobby for a little while. This feels good and it feels right!
The things I find the most rewarding have always involved helping others (stock contest, management tracking program, watchlists, ex-moderation etc.) but this one is for me. Make sure you have something going on in life that brings you the same satisfaction. Believe me, it will make you a better trader/investor and make you a better person overall.
Thank you everyone and I wish you all a fantastic 2019.
If you are interested in sponsoring my website, www.EverythingEven.com reach out to me at firstname.lastname@example.org - I will be rolling out a new sponsorship game plan next week. With nearly 900 contestants, and a few thousand hits a week, your audience is right there! The money will go towards providing more tools/information for the community.