As a joke, I created a fake ETF that shorts the 20 most picked companies in the Stock Picking Contest. I'm off to a pretty good start!
The 2020 Stock Picking Contest is underway with 1,493 contestants. We initially had well over 1,500 users but a few were removed for not following the rules. One user, in particular, was quite clever with their picks. Can you spot why this is an illegal entry?
If you look closely, you'll notice all 3 choices are, in fact, the same company lol. The company changed its name over the years. Nice try @Shandawg, I actually missed it but luckily @mathematics caught it!
All information including statistics and articles can be found on www.EverythingEven.com
With only thirty-one days behind us, @tengrand is in the lead with almost a double, followed closely by @Edp007 and @rini. A big congratulations! For 2020, I've added a CEO.ca Hat Tricks contest. These users have all 3 picks in the positive. Notice 3 users, @Tengrand @Rini and @JRDGold, are currently in the top 5 in both contests.
But what about the rest of us? How are we doing?
After thirty-one days, only 37.2% of us are still above zero. This is a bit strange considering the first few months of the year are typically bullish and everyone seems very excited this time around. At #VRIC2020 and #MIF last week, people were the most bullish I've seen in my 4 years attending those conferences.
Anyway, I finally got around to running the numbers on the 2018 and 2019 "Most Picked Companies" statistics. We always joke about making a SHORT ETF and probably for good reason. Just imagine if you were able to actually do this? Did I just raise an eyebrow? I decided to show both the average and the weighted average statistics. Basically, what the latter statistic shows is that I am giving more weight to more highly picked companies. So, in the example below, GGI.V, with 56 people picking it, would be 5.6 times more weighted than TK.V with only 10 people picking it.
Considering the information above, I ran a Twitter poll last week asking people if they thought this year would be different. I was surprised that 46% think its going to be different.
So, let's have a look, and see how we are doing thus far:
And now you can see where the short ETF idea came from :)
An additional new feature for the 2020 contest is showing all the companies that have risen over 100% since the New Year.
Note: I only record once a week (Friday's closing price) so there may be additional companies that rose and fell before I took a data point.
Hopefully by next months article I will find a more appealing visual method of displaying this information but for now we will rely on good old Microsoft Paint!
If you would like to keep up-to-date with contest statistics, private message me on CEO.ca and I will add you to the .SPC (Stock Picking Contest) private room. We currently have 1,731 users in this room, making it quite possibly the largest private channel on CEO.ca. Now that is tons of eyes :)
Before closing, I wanted to show this Twitter post from one of our sponsors.
We are grateful to have Osprey Gold on board with us. They are drilling in Nova Scotia approximately 50km from where I grew up and 100km from where @mathematics grew up. They are currently waiting for results from an additional five holes drilled at Goldenville and five holes drilled at the Mitchell Lake Zone. The news has propelled the stock 60% since the New Year.
For more information visit Osprey Gold Development Ltd.
In closing, I would like to say I am surprised that the statistics are not as positive as I had hoped. I thought in 2020 we would come out of the gate swinging! But 27% (283 of 1030) of the companies in the contest are currently above 10% and although these stats do not scream we are in a raging junior bull market, it does shows signs of promise.
Disclosure: Osprey Gold Development Ltd. is currently working with the author to become a site sponsor.
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