Gold miners have followed seasonal patterns reasonably well so far this year. Albeit, with a noticeably stronger month of March and slightly weaker than usual month of June. The good news for gold mining investors is that tailwinds begin to kick in next Wednesday, following a shortened U.S. trading session on Monday, the 3rd, and the US Independence Day market holiday on Tuesday, July 4th.

This is a seasonal chart of the NYSE Gold Bugs Index (HUI) since 2001:

A few things really stand out in the above graphic:

  • Friday is the strongest day of the week for the gold miners historically.
  • January, August, and December stand out as the strongest months of the year for the gold mining sector.
  • The March/April seasonal rally and end of year "Santa Rally" really stand out on the above chart.

While there should be some tailwinds beginning next Wednesday, we should not expect a lasting bottom until the end of July, or possibly not until early August. The true seasonal summer strength in the gold mining sector extends from early August until mid-September.

On a positive note, the junior gold miners, unlike the mid-tier and senior producer HUI components, may have recently established a bottom. This is suggested by strong evidence of capitulation earlier in the week, accompanied by extreme negative investor sentiment and disinterest. This bottom could potentially sustain at least through September, and possibly even extend until the end of the year.


DISCLAIMER: The work included in this article is based on current events, technical charts, company news releases, and the author’s opinions. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. This publication contains forward-looking statements, including but not limited to comments regarding predictions and projections. Forward-looking statements address future events and conditions and therefore involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements. This publication is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always thoroughly do your own due diligence and talk to a licensed investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Junior resource companies can easily lose 100% of their value so read company profiles on www.SEDAR.com for important risk disclosures. It’s your money and your responsibility.