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@FundamentalAnalysis There seems to be a consensus that we are unlikely to break below Dec 16 levels for long, and definitely wont go down to Dec 15 levels. Although consensus is never a good thing ..... @vaughan @jayfire
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@Jayfire it's been a tough year (outside of exploration success stories)... I guess anyone who was expecting a repeat of 2016 run, well, I hope you have a lot of patience to ride out this storm! Appreciate the big wins when you get em and never feel bad for booking some profits and "leaving some gains on the table". Because the flipside is this mess... It's a humbling game for sure. #Awinisawin
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@Jayfire Alexco Resource: Further Silver Exploration Before Production In 2018 At Keno Hill https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxB3t0YbFQU+ $AXR $AXU
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@Jayfire Enterprise value below $200 million USD and falling by the day... Incredible no? $TGZ
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@zadman @Jayfire this stock has a LONG established history of going through periods where nobody cares. The thing I find fascinating is Mimram. Last year he bought stock like he was trying to outbid himself. The pace was almost cause for concern. Now the stock is 40% lower than where he bought a lot of those shares and nary a purchase on SEDAR shows up. Things that make you go hmmmmm... For the record I'm modestly long but sold the vast majority around a buck on the way up. Am looking to buy back in size here and if $AVK would do what I think it should, a good chunk of those proceeds would find a home here. $TGZ is becoming compelling from a risk vs reward standpoint. I might guess 20 cents of possible downside vs $1 of up - 5:1. Not bad in my books.
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@Jayfire @zadman Mimran must be pushing close to 20% or so by now... Perhaps he isn't able to buy up any more shares?
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@Jayfire @zadman agreed, great proposition from risk vs reward perspective... I'm also trying to free up more funds here but for me it's unfortunate most of my portfolio is bloody red too (makes it a tad more difficult to try and swap out of positions)! Great job trading btw $TGZ #mbgtrends
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@zadman @Jayfire didnt feel so great getting off at a buck to watch it stroll to $1.40. As almost always in his racket though, things come full circle. You cant pick exact tops or bottoms but what you can do is buy negative sentiment, sell positive and take some profits. #recipeforsurvival. $TGZ
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@Jayfire @zadman I booked some gains at $1.14 and I hear you there... Swapped $TGZ shares for lithium shares and felt like an idiot watching it proceed to run up to $1.40... Never thought we would see the stock in the 60s again. "You cant pick exact tops or bottoms but what you can do is buy negative sentiment, sell positive and take some profits." Your quote is a timelesss recipe for survival AND success! #mbgtrends
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@Jayfire @HHorseman Curious, what are you eyeing/buying these days?
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@Jayfire @Excelsior @PhotoJ Man, I think I gotta start hedging... lol it's too painful otherwise!
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@Excelsior @Jayfire - I messed up and didn't do any hedging, but have decided to ride out the storm. Hedging is a 2 way street though. There are times I hedged and lost on it almost as much as the gains in the miners. However, like @PhotoJ executed, even a 4% or 10% hedge can be worth it if it really looks like the metals and miners are on a teeter-totter. I've even won big/lost big intraday doing one directional trade, and then reversing it. Like selling the hedge $DUST and reversing it on a bounce into $NUGT; or selling some miners and putting on a hedge like $JDST on a short-term peak and correction. That's more insane though and I typically am trading using 1 minute or 5 minute charts :-)
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@HHorseman @Jayfire $CDB has given back most of it's drill hit gains, which made me buy a small amount today. $DV is looking really cheap, but I have such a large position already that I can't really justify buying more. $TGZ seems cheap. I think that some pure silver exploration plays are expensive relative to silver explorer/developers. At the same time some pure gold exploration plays seem pretty cheap. I would like to pick up more $F but I would like it to drop a bit more first. $SSP is starting to get pretty cheap again... Actually I think there is a lot of disclocation in the precious metal sector right now. Most producers seem to price in a higher gold price, silver exploration plays seem to price in a decent silver price, silver explorers/developers seem to be pricing in a low silver price, some gold explorers/developers seem to be pricing in a low gold price. #Gold #Silver #mbgtrends Sum up: I am not eyeing mid/large cap producers (except $KL and $TGZ). I am eyeing gold explorers/developers that has taken big hits already (diverged from GDX/GDXJ), like $SSP, the chronically cheap $ORG even though they have held up pretty good compared to others in the last couple of weeks. I am not eyeing many pure exploration plays in silver ATM but I am eyeing silver explorers/developers with silver in the bank. I think they have too low of a premium compared to the pure hope plays. With an escalation in trade wars and tariffs (most recently the US tariff on Canadian lumber) I try to diversify geographically as much as I can.
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@Jayfire @HHorseman Thanks for sharing those thoughts! Good to know we are looking at a lot of the same companies... I know, I know, confirmation bias... which is why I'm going to try and fixate and study up more on the names you mentioned that I don't own. Cheers!
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@Excelsior @Jayfire & @HHorseman - I have both your portfolios printed out on my desk, and feel the same way about the overlaps in positions. (and a hair less crazy for holding the same companies). :-) (hahaha!) BTW - @Jayfire Good article on your site recently: Portfolio Update: It’s Beet Red These Days! (April 25, 2017) by FI FIGHTER on APRIL 25, 2017 #PreciousMetals http://fifighter.com/precious-metals/precious-metals-updates/2017/04/portfolio-update-its-beet-red-these-days-april-25-2017/
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@Jayfire @Excelsior haha thanks for posting that! Kinda embarrassing right now, which is why I need #mbgtrends to help me improve my picks! Way too much red in there... I miss the glory days of last August when EVERYTHING was green and I felt like an investing genius. :P My brother even went as far as to say, "Mining stocks are so easy, anything I buy goes green the next day!" If that type of sentiment ever comes back, I'm selling EVERYTHING!!!
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@Excelsior @Jayfire - Haha! Yes, last August every resource investor was a genius! That sentiment from your brother reminds me of 2010-2011 :-) (it's so easy..... until it isn't) Yes, if it is ever too easy or a "sure thing" I start taking chips off the table....
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@FundamentalAnalysis @jayfire have you ever looked into Excelsior Mining......I've held this since the 30-35c days not sold a cent yet. $MIN.....but if all goes to plan. I still expect it to multibag from today...the expectation is for it to be a very low cost copper stock.... @Excelsior have you looked into this? Not seen this being discussed in #mbgtrends.....I believe @hracoffin is also in the stock and a few others on ceo.ca. It still trades at a fraction of NPV and thats NPV of around todays copper price. ISR copper mining.....currently facing the permitting process Arizona LOL....a nightmare typically
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@Jayfire Excelsior Mining run by our good pal @Excelsior? If so, sign me up! I don't need to read any prospectus... If he can find obscure gems like Impact Silver and ride it to ten-bagger plus type of gains, I'm a believer we're in good hands!
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@Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis All joking aside, no that's not a name I'm familiar with atm. Will need to look into it more.
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@Excelsior @FundamentalAnalysis & @Jayfire - I'm pretty familiar with $MIN Not only do they have a cool name :-), but I love #insitu mining and there aren't many that have done it with #Copper, but it really helps their costs. They are a show sponsor over at the #Korelin Economics Report which I frequent daily. We've had endless discussions about them over there. Here's a good recent #video on Excelsior Mining: > Excelsior Mining: Last Permits in Summer for Construction of Copper Mine in Arizona  ResourceCapitalAG - Interview with President & CEO Stephen Twyerould https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yo_zimkeuws+
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@Excelsior @Jayfire - I just saw your post above. For transparency, I didn't get the full ten-bagger in Impact Silver (to my chagrin), but several of my trading buddies did and were quite vocal about it for anyone else to play back in early 2016. Personally, I missed the initial January entry into Impact and tried to get my order filled twice in Feb (but it ran away intraday) and I thought it may correct in March 2106. It didn't, so I jumped in that spring and figured, $hit, I better just start accumulating. Several of the investors on the KER rode it the entire way up, so it was bittersweet for me. :-( :-) In late Dec 2015-Feb 2016 I was busy loading up on silver companies like Silvercorp, Americas Silver, Klondex, Great Panther, Aurcana, Silvercrest, Nicola Mining, Avino, and in March finally got back into Alexco. Most of mine were only 5-8 baggers and another dumb thing I did was sold out of Silvercrest too soon at a 2-3 bagger when it went up to become a 13-bagger. (another personal bummer/success story for the silver miners).
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@Jayfire @Excelsior "only" 5-8 baggers... I think many of us would gladly take a 1/2 bagger in this current market environment ;). Kudos sir, well done!
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@Jayfire Unfortunately I have many friends who tried to get into the silver trade a little late, near the end of summer and it hasn't been a pleasant ride since... I do wonder if the last move is a glimpse into something we might see again if/when silver really gets unleashed... I think that rapid rise where we saw so many 5-10+ baggers in silver stocks really got some of the more skeptical speculators intrigued with the massive upside potential... You know $25/oz silver doesn't seem that crazy or far-fetched, but it sure has felt like an eternity trying to get there... Just when you think silver is breaking out, it gets slammed mercilessly back down, over and over, again and again... But if we ever do push through, where will these junior silver stocks be trading at (assuming they can keep costs down reasonably well)?
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@Jayfire Interesting discussion going on here. In regards to Liberia I'll try and take a flyer in a less direct way through $HUM.L in but will be watching $ASO.L from the sidelines. Glad I managed to dodge a bullet with $BAA I remember that one was quite popular with a few newsletter writers back in late 2015... luckily I opted for true gold instead. crazy how a wrong pick can totally alter an investor's fortune... you can get the timing right and still fail massively.
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@Excelsior @Jayfire - I'm on board with $HUM.L as well, and feel they may get acquired before they get to #Liberia, since they are tied up with developing Yanfolila & Kangare in #Mali at present.
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@Jayfire @Excelsior that's perfectly alright with me. I'll gladly take a Mariana premium and forget all about Striking it rich in Liberia. :)
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@Jayfire But I do think CEO Dan Betts has plans of seeing this thing through to production... from interviews it sounds like he has big dreams of creating the next West African mid-tier and his family is well versed in the gold refining business... It's in his blood I guess which was one of the reasons I got swayed into Hummingbird story.
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@Excelsior @FundamentalAnalysis - thanks for the fundamental analysis (nice). I've been debating it $ASO as a contrarian play, but really I'm getting over-exposed to #WestAfrica with positions in $TGZ $HUM.L $AVK $SWA and recently I've decided to give $ORE a go (since everyone else left them for dead and they've continually tried to dig out of the hole created by the resource estimate blunder). Yes, $SBB (IF) they get the permit has takeover written all over it, and they have a royalty while we wait.  @Jayfire - Haha! Yes, good $MARL analogy. A nice 60% premium on $HUM.L and I'll double down on $AVK :-)
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@Jayfire @Excelsior if this West African ship goes down I'm going down with u mate... I have way too much exposure, particularly in Mali.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Jayfire @Excelsior Me three re:West Africa. $AVK $HUM.L $TGZ $SWA I was tempted with $SMF as well but I'll see how far low that goes....but $SMF is absolutely loaded with cash....$280mUSD and only $60M USD in debt
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@Jayfire I like $ORE in a similar sense to $TGZ. When the going was good, raised a buncha capital at $1.00 and now shares are at $0.60 or so... looks smart now and all that cash de-risks things a bit for newcomers... and right now u can buy all u want... no competition whatsoever. Bombore is a big project, maybe a bit of an optionality play but the management team is proven and the share structure is tight with no warrants out... Could go for a nice ride if gold can clear $1,400 and those sulphide ounces are no longer valued at zero... and $1400 would be good for Teranga too which is a higher cost producer to some other West African peers.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Jayfire You have the $SSL endorsement....anything backed by a streamer/royalty company gives a project a bit more credibility that its not worthless junk.....thats why I like sabadola
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@Jayfire @FundamentalAnalysis Nice stocks u own there lol :)
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@Jayfire I haven't followed up on Semafo recently but did notice shares got hammered...
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Jayfire @Excelsior Just noticed we all pretty much own the same stuff in west africa. If I'd known about $RSG.AX early enough that would have been good. Think thats a solid company.....
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Jayfire yeh good point about the cash raisings. $SMF actually did the same as well....hence large cash pile + the FCF they generated in 2016.
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@Excelsior @FundamentalAnalysis - I was just kidding about $ORE since you and I and @Jayfire all have the exact same companies in #WestAfrica. (spooky & kooky) Looks like we'll need @MiningBookGuy to vary up our #African diet a bit. :-) I like $AVK and $HUM.L better than $ORE but feel investors threw out the baby with the bathwater and they represent interesting value here and have been working to upgrade their resource and get things back on track. If $SSL got involved with $AVK that would be fine, but my investment thesis never depended on something like that. Yes, I agree that it is nice having a good part of the portfolio in #Producers and not just #Developers or #Explorers - #Diversification. Each sub-sector can have their season and provides different risk/reward scenarios.
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@Jayfire That was no doubt surprising...
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@JuanTrader @jayfire definitely out of left field. I had to guess originally I was thinking KJ may leave after the reshuffle. It will be interesting what happens next as the halt is still in place. A part of me is hoping
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@Jayfire @JuanTrader It's been crazy... I sincerely hope that this project is high quality enough where it can weather these type of shocks... The importance of high quality and stable management cannot be overstated in mining... Otherwise we run into these kind of situations $BGS.AX which is a shame b/c the focus should be on the asset and not speculation/news on who is entering/leaving the fray... This company needs stability in the worst way.
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@aringbearer @Jayfire and @MiningBookGuy can you find any info on $MXSG?
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@MiningBookGuy @Excelsior @FundamentalAnalysis @Jayfire - great #Africa #WestAfrica chat you're having in #mbgtrends, worthy of ~AUfrica. i'm posting in that panel, with the following link to roughly where the chat begins, if others haven't seen it and want to follow: https://ceo.ca/mbgtrends?72e1111327ad LOL, and you are too kind with $SWA comments! My only concern with $SWA right now is news flow...maybe this complaint is a sign that it's just around the corner. But I really think there should have been 'something' besides $SCA #Karankasso news so far (which is managed by $SCA anyway). I'm sure other $SWA shareholders feel the same way...and this is a general complaint, as I have other holdings with similar issues (I'm looking at you $AQI.AX! even though they did just have a quarterly update last night) #mbgtrends
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@Jayfire @MiningBookGuy Agreed, lack of news flow is becoming more and more of a deal breaker with me and these juniors. Some companies are really good at keeping shareholders informed and some others not so much...
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@Jayfire @anonymous Interesting strategy! Can work out tremendously well and I guess taking a shotgun approach is the best way to do it to mitigate risks... You really only need one big win to make the trade worthwhile.
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@MiningBookGuy @Jayfire - yep, sounds like we're on the same page there! @anonymous - are you betting on the 'shells' because of management? or have a hunch on the properties their picking up? gotta run now. but interested to hear any other details you are willing to provide, and i'll try to follow-up later today! #mbgtrends
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anonymous MY plays on the shells differ, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. One (MC of about $2M) has a management team that has a decent track record, and has a significant shareholder who is potentially the most revered person in the mining industry (in the region), and sits with a decent pot of cash. They are looking for properties in a hot jurisdiction and more specifically a hot trend. Share structure kind sucks (in the 100-150million outstanding range. Another (MC of ~$20M) has a stellar management team, and no property. Don't even know if it will remain in the minerals sector. Roll the dice.... Yet another (MC `$800K) has no property, an unproven management team but a seriously tight float (~10M outstanding). They are currently looking for a property, but have a red balance sheet. #MBGTrends
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@HHorseman @Jayfire On that note, $DEF takes the cake for me. I had no idea if the management were smoking cigars in in Hawaii or actually on the ground in Mexico trying to keep the company going forward. I just had to let it go since there was no way of keeping track of their progress.
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@Excelsior A great Editorial out today from @Jayfire on $PLS.AX $PILBF and #GANFENG and and a number of other Lithium companies like $GXY.AX $GALXF $ORL $OROCF $NMT.AX $RRSSF $LIXXF $ALTAF are woven into a balanced and level-headed #Lithium review. Very well done sir!! $PLS.AX Pilbara Minerals - #Lithium Is Out Of Favor So Shares Are On Sale Apr. 27, 2017 - FI Fighter https://seekingalpha.com/article/4066111-pilbara-minerals-lithium-favor-shares-sale?isDirectRoadblock=false&uprof=45&utoken=45367700671014d860a163e327c403c5 @Jayfire - I am also glad you embedded this graph that shows the different deposit sizes of various #Lithium projects. I had seen that in their presentation but didn't have it isolated. https://staticseekingalpha.freetls.fastly.net/uploads/2017/4/27/45404866-14932664216124225_origin.png+
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@Jayfire @JuanTrader Great news!
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