The information on this Website is not reliable and not intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Nothing contained on the Website shall be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell a security to any person in any jurisdiction.
CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
@teevee@Brandon, @ocotilloredux, in the metallurgy section, recommendations for a preliminary grind of 72 microns, and a regrind to <15 microns indicates the sulphides are very very fine grained. This looks like an "issue" to me. Comments?
@ocotilloreduxEveryone misinterpreted the #uranium cutback at Kazatomprom to mean that they have suddenly found market discipline religion. The real reason for the cutback was they simply could not find a buyer at any price so are accumulating a large stockpile internally. Of course, every analyst got it wrong, and of course Denison takes the opportunity to do another financing. You can set your watch by this annual event from Denison and their band of cheerleaders called analysts.
@ocotilloredux@EricTheActor No, what I am saying is they likely have +20 Mlb of U sitting in a warehouse that they cannot sell. The production cutback therefore does not mean sales will decrease, inventories will reduce, that is all. Greg Barnes at TD has it correct. Despite the cutback the market is still 15-20 M lb a year in surplus. $nxe
@DJSI am not familiar with Kazatomprom specifically but do have a fair amount of experience working with other large industries in Kazakhstan. For what it's worth, @ocotilloredux's notes above resonate with me as being very consistent with how I have experienced them generally.
@EricTheActorThanks @ocotilloredux. This is still positive then, no? I know the dynamics are different in oil and gas, but if o&g producers scaled back production and drew down storage levels, that's definitely a bullish event.
@DJS@EricTheActor I won't try to speak for @ocotilloredux who needs no help here, but building on your O&G comparison (which is my industry), I think what he's saying is that there is a lot of uranium already "drilled and shut in behind pipe" in Kazakstan, which they can deliver to the marketplace on a moment's notice by "turning a valve". So be careful of the head fake the Kazatomprom "10% reduction" may have given to the market and the overhang effect it may have on the timing for a sustained U price recovery. $NXE
@TheGalvanizerFurther to $TK would say for those missing out on the early run @PamplonaTrader and @ocotilloredux are must follows as they are selective about their big picks but those picks tend to end up well kinda big to be honest
@ocotilloreduxIt all depends on how they finance it @wolff which is one reason I have stayed on the sidelines. The current market cap is only about 20-25% of what they need to raise so who knows what the equity dilution is going to be? Also, it has been a little disconcerting to me that they have been wasting their and my time with this Ardea business instead of focusing on Woodlawn financing. #zinc~zinc
@PamplonaTrader@ocotilloredux Ardea has a separate board and mgmt team. The Ardea spinout has so far created lots of value for $HER$HRR.AX shareholders so I don't agree that their efforts have been a waste of time.
@ocotilloredux@internalaudit There is of course plenty of exploration risk here, as with most juniors, but Tinka is not a household name yet so with some good exploration success the street will get to know them especially with a further run-up in the price of zinc. This is not a one way street mind you. Management will have to make all the right moves here to get on the TSX, commence a PEA and start using the body language like they know this one is a potential producer etc. Good geologists can make bad business people.
@FinanzrThanks to @Ocotilloredux and @PamplonaTrader and the discussion on this board, I caught attention of the Tinka story. After following it for some time on the sidelines, I saw it run away and bought a large position at around .28 CAD (larger than my normal full position). Also I bought it in one go and did not "slice" in, what I normally do. It turned out to be a good decision so far. $TK just became the largest position in my portfolio.
@ocotilloreduxI was just looking at Breakwaters, sorry Trevali's, new assets and production was down 15-20% last year at both. No explanation provided but haulage distance to surface at Perkoa (and Santander) will become a bottleneck as they chase the ore deeper.
anonymousNo offence to @ocotilloredux it is great to share information but the information that was provided was I think the same information that was publicly provided by a news release by NSU in mid-January. I do have a question that maybe someone can clear up. The metallurgy issue was known in the mid January operation update, that was followed by a few week period were NSU traded as high as $4.38cdn, and was consistently over $4. The only thing that I think changed in February was the dividend reduction. Does the recent drop make sense if it is only the dividend that was new information or am I missing something else that was new? From the analyst updates it seems they still like NSU at higher prices than it is trading at today.
@soulMinerThanks @ocotilloredux. Whats your opinion in taking a position in the latter half of the year. Provided the metallurgy is resolved at Bisha and the pre-feasability study on the UZ in Timok (due in Sept/Oct) is positive, I would have thought there is very good value in the SP at these levels?
@ocotilloreduxI would have to look at market cap in relation to Timok capex, output and timing. Also, we need some indication on how they plan to extend the mine life at Bisha and show improvement on metallurgy. So the ball is in their court to provide answers to all those questions before I look at them again.
@soulMinerYes, how the management has handled recent events is not something I understand at the moment. I would have thought a news release or update on events would have brought some stability and confidence to the SP. As that has not been forthcoming it does make one wonder if there are any other issues not disclosed.
click to invite
@ocotilloreduxI'll have a 15 worksheet editable spreadsheet out tomorrow summarizing all the zinc production listed in the modules along with an update based upon 2016 year end reporting.
@racker“The 40% increase in zinc price over the past year only results in an increase in zinc output of 1-2%. This means that the zinc price will be increasing quite dramatically shortly assuming a modest increase in demand since the miners have still not been presented with the proper economics to justify new capital for developing greenfield mines. Authors opinion only.” @ocotilloredux on #zinc@ocotilloredux/zinc-mining-ramblings-the-summary
@rackerMore mining engineer Doug @ocotilloredux Beattie on #zinc
"Unlike other commodities, zinc mining is becoming more of an underground mining business.
The significance of this is that productivity improvements are much harder to come by due to the nature of the mining
For instance, unlike open pits, equipment cannot get bigger payload wise since it must fit into tunnels of fixed size.
Likewise, skilled underground miners are increasing more expensive to find, train and retain.
The net result is underground mining costs escalating at above annual inflation rates which must eventually be reflected in commodity prices."
@ocotilloreduxThanks for linking @tommy . The spreadsheet says data as of April 2017 but I wrapped it up early since the weather is fining up and you know what that means... the clubs come out of the closet. Cheers.
@ocotilloreduxI agree entirely @benjaminCox . The Chinese are not good stewards of reliable data and what they do provide is often fraught with errors. But I look at previous parallels to understand China supply going forward. In my mind what is happening there is no different than a modern day gold rush where people swarm the deposits for easy near surface pickings. You got to ask yourself, what nation can sustain an annual production rate of 4.5-5.0 MT of mined zinc for the long haul? I don't think they fully understand the concept of sustaining capital and the need to apply capital to go deeper once the easy stuff is gone. We saw a somewhat similar analogy with the collapse of communism. When demand collapsed in mother Russia, the miners found themselves with no market to feed so shipped everything off to western markets, not because it was profitable, but because they needed the cash flow. But supply quickly dwindled when the need for positive cash flow to sustain the mine became a fact of life. What China has is cheap labour. I highly doubt they have the world class orebodies to sustain an annual production rate over 4 MT though. ~zinc
@ocotilloreduxI agree entirely @benjaminCox . The Chinese are not good stewards of reliable data and what they do provide is often fraught with errors. But I look at previous parallels to understand China supply going forward. In my mind what is happening there is no different than a modern day gold rush where people swarm the deposits for easy near surface pickings. You got to ask yourself, what nation can sustain an annual production rate of 4.5-5.0 MT of mined zinc for the long haul? I don't think they fully understand the concept of sustaining capital and the need to apply capital to go deeper once the easy stuff is gone. We saw a somewhat similar analogy with the collapse of communism. When demand collapsed in mother Russia, the miners found themselves with no market to feed so shipped everything off to western markets, not because it was profitable, but because they needed the cash flow. But supply quickly dwindled when the need for positive cash flow to sustain the mine became a fact of life. What China has is cheap labour. I highly doubt they have the world class orebodies to sustain an annual production rate over 4 MT though.