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@Onlyflaws Thanks @ocotilloredux Could you tag that to the Tinka page?
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@Vaughan @ocotilloredux Thanks for the link @kipkeen (link to @kipkeen interview with COO Taylor of $AZ https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B95jk2_3SNH_VlBIaFBfT05sNFk/view uncut stuff ) The aggressive tonnage rate has to be hoisted as the COO rightly states but I was a little confused with the hoisting strategy. ie. sink the shaft to total depth and then install two loading pockets or cut the shaft off half way and only install the upper pocket initially. The schedule is too aggressive for the first option in my opinion and even the second is a major stretch since it implies the ore passes, vent raises etc are in place down to the upper haulage level. Also, I have seen no discussion on rock temperature/geothermal gradient. Just north of there at Superior, Resolution Copper is dealing with rock temperatures of 175F at 2000 m depth so what is the rock temperature in the Deeps Zone below say 1000m? If the gradient is say, 1F per 20 m for instance, this would mean rock temperatures of ~125F at 1000m. I have no clue what the right answer is here but it is something that requires attention in the feasibility study in case it triggers the need for large surface refrigeration plant(s) a few years into the mine life. #nitpicking #zinc ~zinc
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from ~zinc,
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@Vaughan Select thoughts from @ocotilloredux on $TV and $TK (as discussed in the $TK room) Maybe I shouldn't be reposting it here, but the guy is a force of knowledge on zinc. @ocotilloredux I am not sure what sort of crown pillar Trevali left at surface but the mining commenced very close to it. They are currently mining down around 250-300 m depth now moving downwards about 75 m a year so will be mining deeper than Tinka's deposits shortly and at grades much less than the West Zone. The original mine from St. Joe's days is mined out to almost 500 m depth but they will likely ramp across from Magistral to get at this ore since they will be getting desperate in a few years time for feed. So Santander's resources will be looking like a sick cousin to Tinka in five years time due to the 4-5 km haul up the ramp to surface. Operating costs last year, according to the recent NI 43-101 were $US47.50/t. Cerro Lindo is less than $US30/t. With the top of ore at Tinka in the ~125 m depth range, this is as easy peasy as it comes for bulk ramp mining. Very similar to Cerro Lindo but twice the zinc grade (no 0.8% copper kicker mind you) and definitely not the potential economies of scale (yet). But Votorantim (Milpo) has a handful of smelters in South America that will be running low on internal feed in the next 10-15 years so I hope they see the wisdom of making a move here. As I disclosed a week or two ago, I sold most of my position in the low 70's but like a few here, we are looking for re-entry points.
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from ~zinc,
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@ZipperHead @ocotilloredux Excellent post and definitely food for thought in the event these pods of zinc-bearing mineralization grow.
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from #tk,
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@teevee @ocotilloredux I see that Newcrest's flagship Cadia operation has been shut down after a 4.5 earthquake. any comments on earthquake risks for deep block cave mines?
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from #index,
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@poolman @teevee what do you invest in since you seem to have no tolerance for risk of any kind? I would think any kind of mining activity would be off limits for you.
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@Vaughan That doesn't make sense @poolman. @teevee is sharing (from his years of experience) what he sees as issues with certain projects. In fact, @teevee brought $NRN to the table here first, and helps stimulate good conversations. Also, I believe he won the stock picking contest for 2016. (with high risk stocks).
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@poolman @Vaughan Understand and appreciate the other side and negatives of the trade and any trade, thanks for clarifying his history.
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@Vaughan no sweat @poolman. Cheers.
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@DanO @teevee @ocotilloredux Block caving has its own share of risks and seismicity it's one of them. Newcrests' Cadia was shut after a minor 4.3 earthquake indeed. We don't know the damage if any (shouldn't be that much damage other than some equipment like conveyor belts, crushers that are being inspected for damage)) but I see that the workers were not hurt and were able to get into refuge chambers. The 1999 Northparkes, Australia airblast killed 4 workers (big chunk of roof collapsed in the void) http://www.mineaccidents.com.au/mine-accident/186/northparkes-airblast-1999 so the risks are real. This is what I wrote on block caving back in 2013 https://goo.gl/6Lt5i2 It was edited, shortened, might need to be updated but still some good info for investors. Cheers.
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from ~roughingit,
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@ocotilloredux @danO @teevee Seismicity and air blasts in block caves are why I contend Rio Tinto will not increase their stake in Oyu Tolgoi until they see how the block cave is working there first in a few years time. They got burned at Northparkes and Palabora but have done well elsewhere with the method (Argyle Diamond, Grasberg etc.) The understanding of stresses and rock qualities is much better than it used to be but it is still not perfect. 4.3 is one of the bigger ones so, yes, it is prudent to conduct inspections of all infrastructure to assess the damage. Hopefully, things are OK. I have friends working there. We used to get the odd 2.5 bump in potash and it would make a heck of a noise underground and the farmers would call up complaining about their beds shaking but there was never any damage on the level since it was the Dawson Bay limestone higher up that was shedding stress. It did upset the workers though. #index ~roughingit
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@teevee @DanO, @ocotilloredux thanks for comments and link to paper on block caving-a must read and worth while saving for future reference.
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@ocotilloredux Double down the short zipper, some of us want to add here. Potential losses going long- 100%. Potential losses going short- your house. Sleep tight.
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from #tk,
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@ocotilloredux I have no issues with a good to honest debate on the merits of a speculation since we all learn from it. But don't bring a knife to a gun fight since..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbyAZQ45uww+
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from #tk,
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@benduck @ocotilloredux...what a classic! And thanks for you constant guidance and support for us not-knows. Much appreciated.
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from #tk,
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@ocotilloredux I realize I technically talk above peoples heads from time to time (OK, most of the time) with respect to underground mining but I usually do this for a reason. Mostly to let someone, who is trying to pull the wool over your eyes, know that there are some of us who know their situation as well or better than they do. So without further ado I bring you the underground miners bible. Sort of like an MBA in a weekend. There will be a test next Friday. #index #newbies http://www.stantec.com/content/dam/stantec/files/PDFAssets/2014/Hard%20Rock%20Miner's%20Handbook%20Edition%205_3.pdf
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@TheGalvanizer As a geo I so need to read this. The question is what will take longer this bible or completing Netflix. Thanks @ocotilloredux
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@ocotilloredux Two weeks after I quit as the Mining Manager at Cameco's Eagle Point, after not getting the necessary funds approved to clean up plenty of radiation/safety issues, I found myself as Chief Mine Engineer and Expansion Project Manager at the Allan Mine just 50 km outside of the city here. After a two minute conversation with the General Manager we knew we needed Stantec in as our EPCM. Stantec back then was McIntosh Engineering out of North Bay, Ontario who were the authors of the link above. As the EPCM, they made me look good. On time, on budget. So I have all the time in the world for these guys, or what is left of them. ~zinc #zinc #index
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@Goldfinger Amazing resource @ocotilloredux, thank you for sharing.
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from #index,
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@CriticalInvestor @ocotilloredux Good as gold, as usual, I'm a fan
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from #index,
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@ocotilloredux Anyone else pick up on this one? The firms willing to write PEA's has decreased substantially. The EPCM's have backed out of this business totally and most of the ones I have read recently are coming from BC: JDS Energy and Mining, AMC, SRK etc. These guys are what I would call innocent witnesses to the party, not builders. I suspect the lawyers have gotten to everyone else. I suspect most of these players within the next 12 months will have been placed into a situation whereby they realize they should not be authoring PEA's also.
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@jhm @ocotilloredux Could add MDA out of Reno to the list. Seem to be quite well regarded but I'm not very familiar with them.
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@ocotilloredux And m3 @jhm. I was wanting to bring attention to the fact many have retreated from this aspect of study.
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@jhm Ah I misunderstood, but perhaps an alternate explanation is that completing a PEA is now part of the checklist for accquisitions, with no need for a turnkey contractor when there's zero intention to actually develop the project.
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@ocotilloredux That pretty much sums it up @jhm. It is always good to look at the bench strength of the team to understand what their ultimate intentions are despite what statements they may make in public with respect to putting things into production.
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@ocotilloredux @hRA-Coffin I'll come out to MIF this May. No doubt to get a good spanking from a few ;) but more to touch base with some of you players. I'll be the guy squirming around in my seat when the pure exploration geologists explain their theory for why there is a monster orebody on their virgin property.
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from ~zinc,
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@ocotilloredux In that case, I'll come out early, $20 a hole. Capilano only. ;) Make sure the torpedo man checks his pistol in at the door.
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from ~zinc,
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@ocotilloredux And don't expect an Aussie accent @TheGalvanizer. Naturalized Aussie. Part of my retirement plan options.
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from ~zinc,
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@tommy I am a capilano member @ocotilloredux, a smart thing my gramp did in 1966 was join. I would host you for a game in a heart beat.
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from ~zinc,
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@ocotilloredux Early flights from stoon are not good on the 5th so was thinking of early on the 4th. I'll bring the clubs if you can make a ~1 PM tee time. You really will see I am the wizard from behind the curtain! ~zinc #zinc
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@ocotilloredux Early flights from stoon are not good on the 5th so was thinking of early on the 4th. I'll bring the clubs if you can make a ~1 PM tee time. You really will see I am the wizard from behind the curtain! ~zinc #zinc
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from ~zinc,
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@tommy I haven't played much in the 2000s but reasonably confident I can whoop @ocotilloredux on mental game, home course, raw talent etc. We'll need 3rd and 4th.
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from ~zinc,
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@ocotilloredux Played 9 this morning in 2C with 40 km winds. Did not learn much obviously. Will do. $30/hole for you @tommy. Playing as a 5 these days.
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from ~zinc,
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@ocotilloredux I'm a good chalet skier also @tommy. ie. I talk a good game. I will have no clue what to do with a course with trees on it. Usually an 8-9 as a resort golfer.
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from ~zinc,
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@ocotilloredux We will need caddies @Brandon. You are on my bag since I know the @thegalvanizer will be limping thirty/forty paces behind us on @tommy's bag. Physiological pressure to hit the next shot means plenty in this game. (No, I am really not this sort of prick in real life.)
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from ~zinc,
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@ocotilloredux The problem is @TheGalvanizer , as a Brit, we are not sure exactly which foot is your non driving foot. I am sure you could master a golf cart going 5 km/h though. Even I will concede this to a geologist and even one who is British. My major problem in Australia was shopping mall parking lots. Almost had a few head ons there at 10 km/h. All fun/pun intended. Cheers.
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from ~zinc,
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@ocotilloredux Part of the negotiating practice. Boy @tommy the last time us simple folks here in Saskatchewan actually saw water on a golf course that was not casual, we turned to mush. But you BC folks are down by sea level so I guess I should not bother to bring my driver. ;)
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@HRA-Coffin LOL @ocotilloredux. Oh, you mining engineer you! Live a little - make some shit up!
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from ~zinc,
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@Pete So.. As I said some weeks ago, difficult times at the firm, whole department got sacked last week.. but only in 2018, hurray! Glad I managed to earn some serious extra money last two years in the junior resource space. Special thanks to the project teams at $RMC $KAM $NXE $TK $OOO $COR and to the posters that helped me shape a better view on many different aspects of this sector; @tommy @pamplonatrader @ocotilloredux @BDMineFinder @Cole119 @benjamincox @HRA-Coffin @HighROI @CriticalInvestor @Ty and the whole ptcharts crew. Many more I try to follow regularly but the list of made up names is getting too long ;) GLTA
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from #index,
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@TheGalvanizer Think @ocotilloredux would describe that as a tough lie
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from ~roughingit,
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@ocotilloredux Teck reports Red Dog is having major milling issues with feed from the new Qanaiyaq pit. They have lowered 2017 guidance by over 60,000 t contained zinc as a result. Also there have been no commitment to extend Pend Oreille beyond early 2018. Treatment terms are $US172/t with no price participation, a drop of $US100/t from 2016. In other news- Trevali filed NI 43-101's for Rosh Pinah and Perkoa. A four year only mine life is indicated for Perkoa.
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from ~zinc,
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@FreeBird @ocotilloredux, "but still significant potential to extend the mine life"?
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@Onlyflaws Or hole 59, but @ocotilloredux was thinking there is higher chance that it might not hit if I remember correctly.
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from #tk,
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@ocotilloredux @FreeBird Resources below 430L are inferred so they are not in RPA's mine plan. Looking at Figures 16-4 and 16-5 suggests another 1-1.5 years of production from inferred. But generally poor conversion of M + I to P+P above 430L appears to be due to narrow ore widths at the extremities as also seen in these figures. If zinc prices are above reserve assumptions, they may pick up some incremental tonnes here also but the longitudinal retreat method wipes out ready access to the extremities. $tv
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@ocotilloredux @kipkeen The other thing that dawned on me here that you may want to ask about next time is that the daily tonnage rate is too high for rockbreakers underground hence a sizable crusher station almost assuredly requires installation but I did not see any mention of this. A decent station for 10,000 short tons a day will likely take 6-9 months to install. In order to skip rock up a shaft, it should be reduced in size to less than 16 inches so a 600 tpa jaw crusher is required IMO.
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from #az,
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@FreeBird @ocotilloredux: Ah, I was referring to Pend Oreille, but thanks anyway! :)
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@ocotilloredux @FreeBird Ya but something is just not right at Pend Oreille. There was a mention recently about the geology not being as simple as they thought here. So who knows.
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@FreeBird Ok, thx. Appreciate it.
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@ocotilloredux The World Bank is calling for a 32% rise this year. http://www.mining.com/copper-lead-zinc-prices-stay-boil/ Unfortunately the access to the report is denied. I have started a rinse/repeat cycle starting with purchases of Lundin shares in the past couple weeks likely to be followed again by Vedanta and some juniors. My bids for Tinka have gone unfilled.
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from #zinc,