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CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
@PhotoJBeen waiting all week for Schwab to activate my global trading account... ultimately said thanks but no thanks when the broker quoted $100+ fees to make the trade without it... what an idiot I am. @PamplonaTrader - your calls in the last few months have been ridiculously good... Congrats on this one.
@MiningBookGuy@FundamentalAnalysis RE: $ARL.AX notes - #mbgtrends#newbies
1. #1 thing in your post - skepticism! $ARL.AX needed this, especially when the share price is on a rocket ship. these are important discussion points.
2. You can compared $ARL.AX to other projects. @PamplonaTrader has, and the #cobalt component is clearly favorable in both scale and grade to other "non-risky" jurisdictions. You kind of make a good point on #Nickel#Optionality. But....
3. This is really key for me. See the NR from last night: https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYC4g%2B9yxKZoeV1ke92GA%3D%3D
there are many details here. let's focus on one section, full quote:
"Lateritic cobalt-nickel mineralisation at Kalpini is not presently part of the KNP Cobalt Zone. The existing resource at Kalpini is 75.0 Mt @ 0.044 % cobalt + 0.73 % nickel (see Ardea Resources prospectus p.86).
However, recent examination by Ardea has defined significant cobalt-bearing intercepts in historic drilling at Kalpini. Planning for the first drill program is still underway for Kalpini where around 25 RC holes are envisaged for around 1000 m of drilling.
The aim of the Kalpini program is to test whether selected resources of the KNP can be upgraded to become part of the KNP Cobalt Zone. This will be a pilot study for a series of other similarly identified cobalt-rich occurrences that are not yet part of the KNP Cobalt Zone. Drilling at Kalpini will be performed back-to-back with the program at Black Range."
We have to keep in mind that this is NOT a typical #optionality play. Yes, many studies have been done before on KNP. But never has it been MORE focused on #cobalt than #nickel. Within the next few months, there is room for an improved #cobalt resource, and metallurgical work could improve the economics. I actually think the #Nickel grades are fine. That's more an issue of being laterite #Nickel, which I just know is generally a more costly process than sulphide #Nickel for extraction.
Anyway, there's A LOT of NEW work going into KNP prior to the completion of the PFS. I am actually bullish #Nickel...but even if you weren't, I strongly feel that a focus on #cobalt zones can turn this into a true 'Cobalt-Nickel' play, rather than 'Nickel-Cobalt'.
4. I think it's harder to make a judgment call on the PFS at this stage. But even with these concerns, it's so easy to forget there's also 'zinc-gold' project, AND earlier stage #nickel exploration. And they are cashed up. And very tight share structure (especially for ASX), which is a critical reason for the price spike. Really, this story is unique in more ways than one.
5. With all this said, it makes sense to start thinking about selling ANYTHING that has doubled or tripled in a few weeks (though @PamplonaTrader has made a very strong argument for holding until certain numbers get hit). I will also mention again that the #1 reason for me to get involved is the potential for #cobalt supply disruption, with so much in #Congo#DRC. That is very speculative (and has worked out so far), but sentiment can change quickly. Still, this is a STRONGER argument than #gold, #silver or #uranium#optionality (where I've seen plenty of people make money on absolutely CRAP projects in the last year or so). I won't name any here...but there's much more to THIS optionality story than most others, IMO.
Plenty for #newbies to think about! The #1 lesson I would share is NOT specifically about $ARL.AX. It's that more people should be "exchange agnostic"...many of the best opportunities for me recently are on the ASX rather than TSX/TSXV. You might still be able to make money on $ARL.AX ...but IMO, best thing to do is set yourself up to trade on ANY of the major exchanges! Many 'veterans' are too stubborn to do this (because they've been only trading in Canada for decades). So consider giving yourself a leg-up in this way...and maybe you can find 'the next $ARL.AX'!
@PamplonaTrader@FundamentalAnalysis why would you compare $HZM's Araguaia to $ARL.AX's KNP? Why wouldn't you compare $CLQ.AX's Syerston to KNP instead? Araguaia acid consumption on blend samples ranged from 651–729kg/t vs 350kg/t at KNP (net acid consumption can be improved to 200-250 kg/t). KNP will also produce higher grade nickel concentrate - 40% vs 30%.
@PamplonaTrader@MiningBookGuy Kalpini section definitely interesting. The section on Black Range also caught my eye. The mineralization at Black Range lies on top of an intrusive complex that has potential to host some PGM mineralization. There has been historic drilling that has intercepted some of this but it is not well defined. This opens the possibility of significant PGM at Black Range, which is quite different to other parts of the KNP. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Black Range also area hosting some higher grade Ni-Co. #cobalt#nickel#mbgtrends#newbies$ARL.AX
@FundamentalAnalysis@PamplonaTrader. It was the last project that was presented to me. So a very general comparison based on approx numbers I could remember but it was From a PFS. Up front capital, costs of mining in jurisdiction all plays a part....can't really focus on just acid consumption. $ARL.AX
@FundamentalAnalysis@PamplonaTrader If cobalt and Nickel prices stay the same and this is built. I'd be the first to congratulate everyone. My point was its an optionality play, but not completely out the money like some other projects in uranium/precious metals space. $ARL.AX No one knows where cobalt and Nickel prices are going. Nothing wrong with optionality plays, but this project is out of the money currently.
@FundamentalAnalysis@PamplonaTrader Agree in terms of cheapness and potential, especially if a good well defined high grade cobalt zone is found, and yes compared to other outside DRC projects its cheap looking at relative valuations. However putting market sentiment aside, I'm looking at most these projects (e-cobalt aside) as currently primarily nickel projects. The Nickel component cannot be ignored. (In the case of $ARL.AX until a high grade cobalt zone is defined).The current low Nickel prices makes these projects unfeasible. But if cobalt grades are good enough, and even more so if Cobalt prices go through the roof, that changes a lot, and or ditto if Nickel prices rise substantially. Currently the sentiment surrounding cobalt is driving the prices and ARL.AX presentation has focused on cobalt pushing nickel aside....hence the warning be careful and take some profits... #newbies#mbgtrends
@PamplonaTrader@FundamentalAnalysis OK, no disagreements. I don't intend on seeing most (if any) of my positions through to production. I was clear from the start that this was a value arb trade and in that regard $ARL.AX has some ways to go. Thanks for the discussion.
@LGisntITYup, @hunter, it is certainly a buy on my CIBC brokerage. However, on my Questrade side, they called me yesterday letting me know that I have to sell by Feb 28 - otherwise I have to pay up for the stock certificate. When I asked if it could just be journaled over to London or the OTC, she stated that it's being delisted from OTC and that Questrade doesn't carry the london stock exchange. @pamplonatrader
@FundamentalAnalysis@PamplonaTrader No probs, from an arb perspective it looks good. It ipo'd close to $0 valuation which is ridiculous. But its also good to consider and this is more for #newbies who may not be running their own calculations "whether everything else is overvalued?" $arl.ax
@poolman$ARS$KMGLF@PamplonaTrader If your American broker holds your shares in CEDE (CEDE - Name for Depository Trust Clearing Company (DTCC), a large clearing house that holds shares in its name for banks, brokers and institutions in order to expedite the sale and transfer of stock) then you are OK and need not take any action. Got this from Doris Meyer, Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Secretary of Asiamet Resources Limited.
@fbx258@pamplonaTrader Good work on Hotcopper... $ARL will peak this week IMO (guess) could run north of a 1$. Profit takers would run in at this point. $BAR.ax couldn't break it's monthly 12c and some other cobalt stocks are moving side ways. Thanks for the work dude.
@0Kib$ARL.ax ...it's early in the game for now. If Co/Li demand is going to go up 10-20x over the next 10 years as some expect, Co prices are not going to go up 1 turn and stop there. Supply = Linear function, Demand = Non linear. Higher prices will force supply to become viable and come through. And if amnesty and such non governmental actors have their way, DRC Co may well become untouchable one of these days. The optionalities here are tremendous and good thing is one is not even paying up for them at current $ARL.ax price. They come for free.
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@bernardshaw@trex Good, some differences between your way and my way but worth doing, I guess. I've attached my table for your interest. However, since doing this I have come to the conclusion that the RE2 depends on how the computer is instructed to handle the A2HG zone. In simple terms, the RE1 computer was harshly constrained to disallow use of high numbers if they were too far away from their source drill hole. With more holes at closer spacing this constraint can be relaxed and I believe this will substantially increase the width of the RE1 A2HG. It shouldn't change the area or the grade substantially, just the average width. http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cb2ec4-Arrow%20Resources%202017.JPG. You might also be interested in a post that @PamplonaTrader did along these lines a short while after RE1 release to demonstrate the importance of how you instruct the computer. http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cb2ft1-PTrader%20April16.pdf
@PamplonaTrader@0Kib all of them stand out, but all also have hairs.
$MARL - Extremely high value ore. Minority ownership and in Turkey.
$SOLG.G - THE most exciting district-scale exploration story. Cascabel is deep and in Ecuador
$CDB - Emerging discovery story. Friedland control both good (track record for identifying and promoting world class discoveries) and bad (cheap takeover). Lots of growth already priced in.
$CGP - Owns 15% of Cascabel and should be trading at $0.37 based on $SOLG.L @ 40p/sh. Terrible share structure responsible for discount.
$KAT - Over 30Blbs of copper @ 3%+ and will supply 20% of global cobalt production. Extremely leveraged to copper and #cobalt prices. Huge debt and in the DRC. Glencore owns 86%.
$REG - Large resource abuts operating mine. Very cheap for resource defined to date. Haven't identified real negatives except for liquidity and difficulty of trading shs.
$ARS.L - The cheapest copper story I've come across. Indonesia a huge turn-off to most investors.
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@Aaron@PamplonaTrader$cdb should be close to releasing some more drill results (could be high impact). From the way its trading lately it looks like the market is expecting news shorty in around PDAC. Curious how much potential you see (in terms of share price appreciation) if they hit any of their high priority targets?
@trex@bernardshaw, thanks for that extra info. I agree with you about the A2HG zone. Although, I do expect somewhat higher grades for that zone. The post by @PamplonaTrader (thanks for all your posts by the way!) on SH included a youtube link of Leigh presenting at the Subscriber Investor Summit last year. I spoke with Leigh just before the presentation, he kept stressing to me the power of infill drilling (with McArthur River being his example). Main take away, resource grew substantially at McArthur, and so did the grades. I don't believe he would use this comparison (keep in mind, they already had some fantastic scint results of the infill drilling) if Arrow wasn't going to follow a similar trend.
@Treb, thanks! @speculator, thank you! The pictures of the grade shells alone are mouth watering!
@CriticalInvestorHaving my article on sponsor NexGen Energy $NXE reviewed and returned today according to management, will publish it directly afterwards. Little shout out in it for CEO.CA, @EvenPrime and his contest platform, @PamplonaTrader and Doug Beattie > also containing my arm waving RE2 estimate