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@traderyinholding that nasty candle which is now on fire
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@MiningBookGuythanks for the mention @jameskwantes! i'll give my 2 cents on $AU, not to boast (because maybe I made a mistake here), but because I think my own thoughts as a shareholder could help others if crazy price spikes happen like this in the future, and it just might be of interest!
first of all, SOOO happy CEO.CA exists, because even though i can't see very well right now, i checked a few times yesterday and it's the only reason i realized $AU was going bananas after the halt. I was expected another $BTO JV or something similar, NOT high-grade grab samples (which I saw at the same time as the price spike). So this was a whirlwind, because no one I would have ever expected a price spike like this on grab samples (something @stateside implying seems pretty wild, which i agree with).
to @lucTenHave's point, there can be a lot going on here that requires talked to geologists (for the vast majority of us who can't interpret these results on our own). but honestly, no matter how anyone spins it, my impulse was to SELL SOMETHING when we get a price spike on news like this. simple as that. there wasn't much time to think. here's my rough $AU picture: my cost average was roughly ~0.40 CAD (i think some people here got in much earlier). incredibly, this hit a ~1.30 CAD high yesterday, well above 60M CAD market cap i believe. i sold just under half my shares at ~1.20 CAD. i have NO plans to sell the rest of my shares, and i'm easily in 'free ride' territory.
is there a problem? yes, i think i 'feel too good' about this! usually that's not a great sign. we will see soon enough whether i sold too much or too little. but i wanted to make this post before the open today...my thinking is that this was 'good news', but not '100%+ returns in a day' news. I need to do more DD (been piggybacking too much off some of the great $AU room contributors @luctenhanve and @martin). but i'm already thinking i would consider buying back some shares below .80 CAD or .70 CAD (btw, i'm not a good trader, but for better or worse, i'm 'more open' to attempting some shorter-term trades in this fashion), if it falls that low. Now if we end the week at 1.50+ CAD...then CLEARLY i made a mistake selling! lol
Anyway, just wanted to push this out because there's no easy answers here. selling is sooo hard! whether selling for profits or losses. you 2nd guess yourself all the time. oh, and someone mentioned #sharestructure (maybe @stateside). that was a huge plus here, so i commend $AU for setting it up for a price spike like this. i hope $AU is onto something big even if i kick myself for selling too much too early! will tag #mbgtrends here in case non- $AU followers find this helpful.
@nasdaqB2Gold Corp. Reports Record 2016 Gold Production; Fekola project mine construction ahead of schedule & now on target for an October 2017 production start @nasdaq/b2gold-corp-reports-record-2016-gold-productionfekola$BTO$BTG Consolidated gold production of 140,651 ounces, 7% (or 9,182 ounces) greater than the same period in 2015. Gold revenue of $181.2 million on record sales of 151,524 ounces at an average price of $1,196 per ounce, an increase in revenue of 30% (or $42.2 million) over the same period in 2015
@traderyinUnless you are bearish on gold, this is a must own. Its hard to find producers that still have the ability to increase production at a decent ASIC. If gold prices keep on the pace, this thing will run
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@JayfireGreat run to start the new year, epic really over the course of a year... Everything looks good, thus I am out for now... So long, and thanks for all the fish! $BTO$BTG
Mutt@rangerbentman you sneaky little fox you. I have started taking profits, albeit slowly, on $ROG and $BTO, $MEK and $SEK will have to wait, more upside still in those two. Both are still sub $5 million Mcap with money in the bank to do some good work this season
@nicholaslepanRaymond James Analyst Chris Thompson's upgrades and downgrades for Wednesday. For #gold producers, his changes were:
- B2Gold Corp. $BTO, outperform, to $5.30 from $4. Consensus is $5.14. BTO is currently trading at 4.37 down 6 cents today.
- Coeur Mining Inc. US: $CDE, outperform, to $12.60 (U.S.) from $11.75. Consensus is $12.53. CDE is curently trading at $9.20 down 11.5 cents.
- Endeavour Mining Corp. $EDV, outperform, to $31.25 (Canadian) from $24.50. Consensus is $29.79.
- Integra Gold Corp. $ICG, outperform, to $1.25 from $1.15. Consensus is $1.16.
- Mandalay Resources Corp. $MND, outperform to 90 cents from 85 cents. Consensus is $1.17.
- OceanaGold Corp. $OGC, outperform, to $5.60 from $5. Consensus is $5.39.
- Orezone Gold Corp. $ORE, outperform, to 95 cents from 90 cents. Consensus is $1.30.
- Roxgold Inc. $ROG, outperform to $1.95, from $1.75. Consensus is $2.17.
- SEMAFO Inc. $SMF, outperform to $5.50, from $5.25. Consensus is $6.19.
- Tahoe Resources Inc. $THO, outperform, to $18.50 from $19. Consensus is $17.58.
- Victoria Gold Corp. $VIT, outperform, to 95 cents from 75 cents. Consensus is 93 cents.
@nicholaslepanHaywood goes to Africa! Haywood analyst Geordie Mark went to visit B2Gold Corp.'s $BTO Fekola gold project in western Mali. The Fekola Gold mine is under development and is expected to deliver its first gold pour in October 2017. Development costs are in line with budget and ahead the original schedule. The company currently has a 9.5 life of mine for Fekola. The forecast for production, once it starts, is ~50,000 ounces with a processing average of 2.33 g/t. Haywood has a buy recommendation with a $5.50 price target and a high risk rating. Contact your local Haywood for a full copy of the report. DYODD
@MiningBookGuy@nicholaslepan RE: $BTO - hmm ok, i thought that might have been a typo. not sure about further context on the ~50koz. maybe just the 'ramp-up' stage?
anyway, worth noting at expected ~350k oz/year (& possibly higher), #Fekola easily the most impressive upcoming mine anywhere in the world (all factors considered, size+margin+further exploration potential): http://www.b2gold.com/projects/development/fekola/
"The mill capacity increase could potentially raise annual production by up to 20% (subject to mine planning), surpassing initial Feasibility Study projections of approximately 350,000 ounces of gold per year for the first seven years of operation." #Mali
@MiningBookGuy@nicholaslepan RE: $BTO - ah ok thanks, didn't see that NR, and ~50k must be related to 'pre-commercial production':
"2017 outlook provides for forecast annual consolidated gold production of between 545,000 and 595,000 ounces, forecast cash operating costs of between $610 and $650 per ounce and forecast AISC of between $940 and $970 per ounce (including expected #Fekola pre-commercial production of between 45,000 and 55,000 ounces)"
@MiningBookGuy#2 #Mali - *Note - I may have made mistakes here. #DYODD@FundamentalAnalysis - so you didn’t ask about specific companies. But it fits my agenda of promoting $DAU right now. And @Excelsior posted a few good ones already. I think it’s worth quickly exploring the landscape. I’m finding a lot of positive momentum in #Mali#gold right now. Some reasons and a company list to follow:
I think comparing #Mali to #BurkinaFaso as #gold focused jurisdictions in #WestAfrica is a great starting point. They are both ‘maturing’ (with #Mali more mature than #BurkinaFaso). They both depend heavily on #gold. They arguably have the 2 best #gold mines anywhere in the world in #development right now (these are #Fekola for $BTO in #Mali, and #Natougou for $SMF in #BurkinaFaso).
I say they are the ‘best’ when you combine how high-margin they are expected to be, with size. But this point is key - #Mali is a land of elephants, and #BurkinaFaso not as much. #Natougou is going to be one of the larger Burkina mines looking at ~200k oz/year production. #Fekola is already quite big at ~350k oz/year expected production…but it already seems like this can increase, AND there are plenty of mines already around this level (or at least closer to this than most of what we find in Burkina).
I think the Senegal Mali Fault Zone ( #SMFZ ) is key. So many huge mines there…including #Fekola which is the newest. I really like #BurkinaFaso as a jurisdiction. But there is no trend in Burkina that rivals the #SMFZ in #Mali. Also keep in mind this is as far away as you can get from any possible #Mali terrorist activities…in #BurkinaFaso, i put mines in the ‘northern’ part of the country at generally higher risk than those in the South (though to be fair I don’t think #Essakane for #IMG has had any problems despite bordering #Niger)
Anyway, LOTS of interesting comparison. But I will keep hitting home that #SMFZ is special, and I’m going to briefly go through a company list taking note of this (*Note - this might not be an exhaustive list. but it’s a great start for looking at #Mali#gold companies #newbies ):
#Producers$BTO - IMO, #Fekola best #development project in the world for this diversified mid-tier. This WILL bring more attention to #Mali as it approaches production. on #SMFZ$RRS.L#Randgold - #Mali is their bread-and-butter, where it all started. If there’s one company to research the history of for #Mali historical success, it’s $RRS.L. Some great mines on #SMFZ#AngloGold Ashanti - a big one, a project with $IMG on #SMFZ$IMG Iamgold - not only a project with #Anglogold. But they just fully acquired $MXI, possibly creating a new disctrict combined with their #Senegal#Boto project on the Senegal side of #SMFZ. this is all near #Fekola, which is interesting
$ACA.L - they have just entered #Mali recently for early-exploration, on #SMFZ! Important to show that large developers like $ACA.L and $IMG still looking early-stage
$EDV - Tabakoto/Segala production close to $RRS.L on #SMFZ#RSG.AX - huge #Syama mine NOT on #SMFZ, showing there’s a lot of potential in other parts of #Mali as well ( $RRS.L also has #Morila which is near the end of its life in a different part of the country)
These are standalone #developers. It’s exciting that 2 of them are gaining a lot of positive momentum
*Note - none of these are on #SMFZ, that i’m aware of
$HUM.L - #Yanfolila project. I questioned this one for a while after some hiccups. LOTS of positive momentum right now, gaining attention.
$AVK - this is ready to be developed or acquired. Not sure what the hold up is. But also positive stuff going on…we’ll see what happens next!
$AGG - smaller project. Not sure what’s going on. but could be built soon
$BGS.AX - the development project is lithium. Has gotten a lot of hype, so it’s worth noting. They have an earlier stage #gold project near #Morila.
i think at least one more? can’t remember right now. but there’s significant activity with these.
#Explorers$MXI - worth noting again since it was just acquired by $IMG, with project on #SMFZ$AGZ - they are earning-into $ALO.L property on #SMFZ. Seems prospective. But I would like them better if it was the other way around.
$ALO.L - definitely some interesting properties on #SMFZ. But their focus is in #Zambia. Not helping that it’s AIM listed.
$LGN - this one looked interesting to me for a while…but seems like a #zombie right now…maybe will come to life again
$GBE - this is a new one, could be interesting. But I think $BGS.AX used to own their properties (this is all around #Morila). I don’t trust the prospectivity yet.
$KOD.L - i consider this a shady little company (i owned the prior ASX one). it does lithium and gold. definitely worth following and it’s made some people a lot of money. but watch out, and listed on AIM
$OKU.AX - i really like what these guys are doing! i think it’s the best potential #Mali#gold#exploration right now. Problem? too expensive for me, just too much of a premium for the the last 1-2 years.
And of course to end… $DAU. i have given many reasons I really like it, especially at current valuation. But very key to all of this is 2 properties really well situated on/near #SMFZ. I don’t think any of these other explorers are looking to get 3 JVs soon and are so well situated ( $OKU.AX the closest, but drilling on their own).
Anyway, there’s LOTS of activity going on n #Mali! I could have easily missed some companies, but this is a good way to start. Happy Hunting! #DYODD#mbgtrends
@Jayfire@MiningBookGuy Wow, AWESOME post on #Mali and such perfect timing! Coincidentally, I've been pouring a ton of capital into these advanced stage developers $HUM.L and $AVK, which boast as strong and compelling project economics as any other gold development plays currently out there. Also, $BGS.AX for lithium. Mali gets a bad rap as a mining jurisdiction, but like you mentioned above it's elephant country and supported by giants such as $RRS.L$BTO$IMG$RSG.AX AngloGold Ashanti. Not to mention the Chinese who have sunk billions of dollars into developing the region, railways/infrastructure. In the case of $RRS.L they've been in Mali for a long time and successfully operated Morila there for years/decade showing that it can be done. Yes, Mali remains tricky (as evident by the most recent Radisson Blu attack in Bamako in 2015 clearly showed), but I can't see it falling off the map as a prime mining jurisdiction of importance anytime soon! Mali is too prospective geologically and important to the local economy. They need these mines and the jobs, especially since some of the older ones are nearing end of life... Relationships are the key to to making it work in Mali, so it's important to stick with the companies/people who have a track record/long history here... Avnel, for example, has been operating a smalll Soviet-era mine at a loss since 2004, as a part of an agreement to explore/develop their Kalana Main project. You've got to have strong ties and work closely with the local government to succeed here...
@R2R@MiningBookGuy Wow..I loved those posts about Mali. Keep em coming if you have more to share. I didnt follow the geopolitical issues as much in the past (2011-2012), even though I bought and held $IMG in the past. Now I own $BTO, and looking forward to see the #Fekola project up and running...that really is a biggie. Some good ideas posted in your discussion -- lots to think about and research. Cheers!
@MiningBookGuy@R2R - ok, i dug up some images that might interest you and others related to #Mali.
Let’s consider this #Mali post #3 to follow-up the previous 2: *Note - there could be errors here, and I’m especially biased towards $DAU$SWA & $BTO as a shareholder in each of them. #DYODD.
I consider there to be 2 areas of the 'Senegal-Mali Fault Zone’ ( #SMFZ …btw, this is also known as 'Senegal-Mali Shear Zone’, #SMSZ . interchangeable when you see these listed in various images).
*1. The whole area surrounding $BTO#Fekola - This should be especially interesting for @R2R, with his specific interests in $BTO and $IMG. I had the following image hiding in my computer docs (it’s a great one!):
At the bottom, you can see #Fekola project for $BTO. But also notice the big area called #Siribaya. This was the main project for $MXI, and was just fully bought out by $IMG. Importantly, there is also a property that goes through #Guinea, as well as the $IMG#Boto Project in #Senegal. This is the ‘hot area’ of consolidation in #Mali right now!
And I’m actually surprised $BTO was highlighting #KandioleSud in this image. Believe it or not, this is one of $SWA’s properties (I did mention it in a previous video, but no one ever talks about it). This property HAS to be worth something, but is not being worked on because $SWA is rightly focused on #BurkinaFaso. And one other thing to mention: $OKU.AX has some juicy properties directly north of #KandioleSud AND directly East of #Fekola. So again, a very hot/exciting area to follow, that will only heat up further as #Fekola approaches production!
*2. The other general area I’m following is the big gap in the middle part of #SMFZ#SMSZ.
See the gap between Sadiola and Loulo from the most recent $BTO powerpoint:
My take is that this is the best area for finding a new multi-million ounce deposit in #Mali! I’m not the only one thinking this way…check out this useful image from a recent $ACA.L powerpoint:
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cb8etj-2016_11_Acacia_Mali.png+$ACA.L stealthily acquired these properties along with their #BurkinaFaso properties over the past few years. These are VERY early stage, and they are just now drilling them for the first time. For whatever reason, it seems that this part of #SMFZ#SMSZ has been neglected compared to other parts.
This is a GOOD thing when thinking about #grassroots#greenfields#gold#exploration! Even better that there is activity from other companies here. A few worth noting:
$DAU is the most exciting for me! Their best property, #Farabantourou, is right on #SMFZ#SMSZ (find this and other properties in their powerpoint here: http://www.desertgold.ca/images/pdf/presentation/2017/DAU_PPT_08Feb2017V2.pdf )
. I’m not sure how far it is from these $ACA.L properties, but it has to be in the general vicinity
-adjacent to $DAU Farabantourou are 2 $ALO.L properties. $AGZ is earning-into 1 of them, and I believe $RRS.L#Randgold is earning-into the other one.
This area is so new that it’s hard to find good maps showing all these properties…and that’s a good thing! As a $DAU shareholder, I’m especially interested in this area, and hope $DAU pulls off a great JV in the coming months. But even if you don’t own any of these companies, it’s worth following as perhaps the most exciting ‘new’ part of #SMFZ#SMSZ.
Anyway, it’s clear there’s LOTS going on in #Mali, with #gold companies of all sizes attempting to #consolidate and make the next big #discovery! #mbgtrends#Mali#DYODD
@R2RThanks for sharing @MiningBookGuy. That is very resourceful....thanks for pulling up some of the older info from $BTO and posting it here. It is very interesting how that region is seeing so much activity from various explorers and producers. When I was looking at that map of the #SFFZ#SMSZ, I was wondering why the middle section remains unexplored -- perhaps something about the local geography that isnt obvious from looking at a map that makes it more remote perhaps. It is good to know that $BTO is now exploring some more in that region.
FYI, I am no longer a stakeholder in $IMG -- sold out of that last year and took up a sizeable position in $BTO instead.
@MiningBookGuy@R2R - you're very welcome! glad this area interests you as well.
on the middle area of #SMFZ#SMSZ: my take is that there was 'low hanging fruit', starting with the Loulo/Yalea/Gounkoto complex that $RRS.L has been harvest for decades now. While the $BTO#Fekola area is hot, the #Fekola discover only occured in 2010-2011...which shows how quickly a huge deposit can go from discovery to production (~7 years is very impressive!). Sometimes places don't get explored because of lack of outcrop (ex. getting encouraging soil samples/clues from the surface), and sometimes it's because of remoteness. But in this case, it's absolutely key to me that #SMFZ#SMSZ goes right through the middle, and we are starting to see a build-up of activity there ($ACA.L is smart...their top geo Peter Spora was picking up all this land is #Mali and #BurkinaFaso when no one else would). #Mali
@MiningBookGuy@R2R - oh and yes, I LOVE seeing how maps change over the course of a few years. Sometimes companies purposefully hide stuff, and sometimes they show things by mistake...it's a GREAT way to get a leg-up, by trying to compare maps from many different companies. I think it's especially useful for these emerging jurisdictions, because places like most of #Canada and #UnitedStates are pretty well known.
and just a follow-up on $IMG - i've never been a shareholder myself, and don't expect to be one. But they've got their fingers in a lot of interesting things, and I'm sure they've had talks with $BTO on how to extract maximum value from the #Fekola / #Boto / #Siribaya emerging district area. I always like following competitors, looking for clues, helping me guess what their next move will be. In any case, #Mali is pretty cool to have such a wide variety of companies to follow. This is a GREAT time for anyone to start, if they haven't been following up until this point...but of course, I'd say the same for all of #WestAfrica and #Africa for that matter! :P
Anyway, glad you're interested, and I still like $BTO a lot as a 'mid-tier leader' in this cycle
@StarFirewait wait..am I the only one smart/dumb enough to be buying $SAU ? Sure it's a mess up and down, Philippines is a a disaster, but on 700 million shares out at 2.5 cents, $BTO owns 70 million ...and a NPV of I think $2 Billion? There has to be room to run..
@MiningBookGuyhey @flippy! sorry i missed your post earlier. thanks, and yes, i do have a 'foundation' of bullion (no more details on that! ;) ), and various larger mining companies. i like mid-tiers a lot, and i'll name a few i own (not necessarily the best ones): $NGD (i've taken a big hit with an outsized position in this one) $BTO$EDV$TGZ, and a bit of $FNV as a royalty company. I haven't spent too much time thinking about these, except i'm getting a lot more excited about $TGZ and would be buying here if I wasn't putting so much money into explorers!
anyway, main point is that i own a lot of stuff NOT in the explorer category, but #explorers are definitely the main focus right now!
@R2RHere's something interesting I noticed in $GDXJ#gold#etf. B2Gold $BTO is now the largest holding at 5.8% and my other big holding Kirkland Lake Gold $KL is 6th largest holding at 3.68%. Looking back, I wanted to see how they were positioned historically. As of Dec 31 2016, B2Gold was #4 at 5.2% and $KL was way down the list at 1.47%. I reckon $KL will keep climbing list as it becomes a bigger player in the space
GDXJ Holdings as of Dec 31, 2016: http://imgur.com/a/vO0Vy+
GDXJ Holdings as of today Mar 13, 2017: http://imgur.com/a/fry8X+
@GoldfingerRBC on $BTO results, costs higher than expected: "Consolidated operating cash costs of $546/oz and AISC of $877/oz came in above our estimates of $478/oz and $795/oz, respectively. The higher operating costs were driven by delays accessing higher grades on the Mojon zone at Libertad and Santa Pancha at Limon, lower grade mine sequencing at Masbate, and timing of capital expenditures." $gold
@NewtonHaywood report out on $BTO today. Full of good info. Cash costs at La Libertad in Nicaragua came in at $661/oz vs $521 expected, due to higher operating costs ($42.8/tonne vs $44 in Q3). This project is approx 10% of corporate NAV estimated on project-project basis. In general, "investment thesis is predicated on growing production profile, strong management and exploration team, demonstrated ability to execute on accretive transactions".