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@nicholaslepan China will lower its 2017 economic growth target to around 6.5 percent from last year's 6.5-7 percent, policy sources said, reinforcing a policy shift from supporting growth to pushing reforms to contain debt and housing risks. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-growth-idUSKBN1501G6 #China
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@nicholaslepan Forget about a US-China trade war, says Deloitte. Consultancy says real shock for Asia would be a bigger fall in Chinese yuan. http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Forget-about-a-US-China-trade-war-says-Deloitte #China
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@nicholaslepan The surge in prices of a raft of commodities in the past several months, propelled by China, will probably wane this year thanks to expanded production, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-17/don-t-get-too-excited-about-china-s-commodity-reflation-with-supply-set-to-rise? #commodities #China
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@nicholaslepan China steel, iron ore: A new year, a new bubble. Iron ore gain so far this year is about 18 per cent and the contract is around four times higher than the low reached in July 2015. The strong rallies so far this year appear to owe more to sentiment than actual demand and supply fundamentals, which raises the possibility of a repeat of last year’s medicine, tighter controls on commodity trading. http://www.theglobeandmail.com//globe-investor/investment-ideas/china-steel-iron-ore-a-new-year-a-new-bubble/article33643525/? #iron #china
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@nicholaslepan China’s housing boom ends as prices fall in top cities. House prices have fallen across most of China’s hottest property markets for the first time in almost two years, marking an end to the enormous growth that saw prices rise as much as 40 per cent last year. https://www.ft.com/content/0ae22064-dd5a-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce #China #realestate #housing
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@nicholaslepan Strategic minerals - President Putin has just ordered the reopening of one of the Soviet Union’s tungsten mines - The move may well be motivated by raised potential for a trade war between the US and China which may see China restrict the export of strategic minerals such as tungsten, lithium, rare earth metals etc.. - #China restricted supplies of rare earth metals to Japan over a territorial dispute and it is likely that similar tactics may be employed again - If the world enters a new era of ‘Cold War’ trade tactics then more governments may feel the need to stimulate the construction of new mines and processing plants to protect local industries from being cut out of the supply chains which they have so long taken for granted. Source: http://www.spangel.co.uk/
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@nicholaslepan Chinese coal miners are so determined to cash in on a window of high prices that many are slashing holiday leave for workers and raising pay through the Lunar New Year celebrations before government introduces limits on output again. #China #coal http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-coal-idUSKBN1540SC
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@nicholaslepan China-Vancouver air travel is soaring, despite B.C.’s foreign homebuyers tax. With the addition of a sixth Chinese airline, “YVR now has more mainland Chinese carriers than any airport in North America or Europe.” http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/china-vancouver-air-travel-soaring-despite-home-buyers-tax/ #Vancouver #china
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@nicholaslepan China’s first aircraft-carrier bares its teeth. For Admiral Wu Shengli, the commander of China’s navy since 2006, it must have been a sweet swansong to mark his imminent retirement. In November China announced that its first and only aircraft-carrier, the Liaoning, was combat ready. http://www.economist.com/news/china/21715036-should-anyone-be-scared-chinas-first-aircraft-carrier-bares-its-teeth? #China
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@Goldfinger $China rail freight rebounding rapidly: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c89qpq-IMG_5104.JPG+
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@nicholaslepan Chinese coal miners cancel holidays as government relaxes restrictions to stimulate supply - Mines are rushing to produce as much coal as possible while prices are high and before Beijing reintroduce output restrictions - Workers are said to be happy to keep going as mines offer 6,000-9,000 yuan in extra bonus for keeping mines running - #China will still move to swing demand away from coal towards cleaner fuels and energy sources with time but even Chinese politicians understand the social consequences of insufficient fuel for power generation and heating when the weather is cold. - #Coal prices will likely fall from their peak at $89/t but are likely to remain high as Beijing is expected to clamp down on coal supply and resume its ambition to cut 500mt of capacity once the immediate shortage is over. Source: http://www.spangel.co.uk/ #mining
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@nicholaslepan #China, #Philippines agree to cooperate on 30 projects worth $3.7 billion http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-philippines-idUSKBN1571GJ?il=0
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@nicholaslepan #Mongolia recently reached a new deal to sell #coal to #China, helping it boost its faltering economy and start repaying billions of dollars it owes Wall Street lenders.Under the landmark agreement completed late last year, Mongolia’s state-owned mining company will sell coal to China at roughly double the previously agreed-upon rate. http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-china-mongolia-mining-deal-economic-windfall-or-environmental-threat-1485000058?
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@nicholaslepan The Trudeau government is being accused of bowing to Beijing by cancelling a cabinet order to break up a Chinese takeover of a Montreal high-tech firm despite warnings from national security agencies that the deal would undermine a technological edge Western militaries have over China. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-accused-of-appeasing-china-with-second-review-of-takeover-deal/article33713720/? #China #tech
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@nicholaslepan #China to spend $165bn on #energy saving technologies by 2021 across 13 key industries - The National Development and Reform Commission has published a list of 296 types of energy saving technologies and methods to reduce carbon emissions. (Bloomberg) - Key industries for reform are: coal-fired power, electricity, steel, non-ferrous metals, petroleum, petrochemical, chemical, construction materials, machinery, light industry, textiles, transportation and communications industries. - China’s National Energy Administration has also announced plans to spend around $360bn on renewable energy sources over the coming four years. - China is constantly looking at how to retain value within China with the cost and national security implications of rising oil imports a particular area of concern. - China is increasingly focused on cutting carbon fuel imports from both a pollution and balance of payments perspective and finds this a good excuse to stimulate growth in the emerging industries of electric vehicles and other energy efficient applications. Eg its just a good idea all round to make everything more energy efficient.
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@nicholaslepan Don’t be duped, China’s foreign reserves are no savings at all. Weak dollar assets to pay off strong currency liabilities in yuan, and the inevitable result was a growing, but unreported, hole in its balance sheet. http://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2064617/dont-be-duped-chinas-foreign-reserves-are-no-savings-all #China
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@Goldfinger Gundlach speculates that protectionism is a US dollar negative. I've got to agree as international trade slows and $China continues to liquidate USTs. The question is which currency to hold? $gold
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@Goldfinger $Trump and $China getting off to a rocky start with Spicer essentially stating US will contest South China Sea islands. Not sure how US does that if China parks naval ships there. As Moriarty would say, "what are you gonna do? Nuke 'em?"
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@nicholaslepan t brings much of China’s economy to a halt and strains transport systems, not to mention waistlines. Chinese New Year is an annual ritual of family reunification and overindulgence. The scale of the migration is astounding: While some 49 million Americans undertake a significant journey for Thanksgiving, Chinese citizens will rack up 3 billion trips during this year’s travel-fest. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-23/china-readies-for-world-s-biggest-human-migration-quicktake-q-a? #China
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@Goldfinger "Lauded as a “visionary” by Mr Trump, Mr Navarro may soon be the world’s most powerful economist working outside a central bank." http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21715017-there-are-reasons-be-worried-about-head-donald-trumps-new-national-trade-council-peter?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe $China $protectionism $Trump
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@Goldfinger $China has become an aggressive liquidator of USTs in the last 6 months: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c8f4hb-UST_holders.png+ About to fall below the US$1 trillion mark.
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@Leon While #China and #Japan continually lower their ammount in U.S.treasuries, the #EU member states collectively are the biggest holder of $1,242 billion. The #ECB is yet considering prolonging the QE program beyond March 2017 and it will have to be continued, as cheap money has become the drug for the financial system and the main solution for the unreliable banks in Southern Europe to remain on the surface. #bondCrash #inflation #gold https://gefira.org/en/2016/10/10/euro-area-crisis-we-are-back-in-2012-or-worse/
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@nicholaslepan The Egyptian government is considering signing a currency swap agreement with #Russia, following in the footsteps of its agreement with China in October, an senior Finance Ministry official. #China and #Egypt on December 6 concluded an 18 billion yuan (US$2.62 billion) three-year bilateral currency swap, a move that importers and economists said would facilitate trade and improve foreign currency liquidity in cash-strapped Egypt. http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/egypt-plans-currency-swap-russia
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@nicholaslepan Jevons paradox – #China likely to repeat challenge of UK Industrial Revolution China is experiencing similar issues seen in the UK in the Industrial Revolution of the 18th century and members of the China’s Central Committee might like to consider the Jevons paradox as part of their plans to create greater energy efficiency. - The English economist William Stanley Jevons, in his book ‘The Coal Question’ published in 1865 coined the Jevons paradox in relation to the need to mine more coal in order to create more energy efficient machinery to cause the mining of less coal. - The paradox says that increasing energy efficiency may not reduce fuel consumption. Interestingly, improved efficiency is said to lower the relative cost of using an energy resource which tends to raise demand - With China’s National Development and Reform Commission proposing to spend $165bn on energy saving technologies and China’s National Energy Administration also reporting plans to spend $360bn it may be that these activities actually raise the tonnages of coal and other fossil fuels required rather than lower them. Hence the Jevons paradox! - With China allowing coal mines to work more days to meet increased demand perhaps we are already seeing the Jevons paradox in action. Source: http://www.spangel.co.uk/
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@Leon #Trump is setting himself up for massive disappointments in the months ahead and his entourage as well. He can bully #Mexico for his wall, but #Russia and #China are playing in the Champions League ;-) #Syria #gold www.globalresearch.ca/trump-ordering-pentagon-to-establish-safe-zones-in-syria/5570958
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@nicholaslepan China produced 31.6 million tonnes of aluminum last year. National output in both November and December was running at an annualized 34 million tonnes, a fresh record. The country's share of global output last month was more than 56 percent, according to figures from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Ten years ago it was around 30 percent. #China #Aluminum http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-aluminium-home-idUSKBN15A1UM
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@Leon Mexico is only the fourth-largest trade partner with the U.S. - Investors in #China, Germany and Japan should be very closely watching how the negotiations with #Mexico play out. #tradeWar #equities #commodities https://twitter.com/NathanielParish/status/825000702481203200 https://twitter.com/NathanielParish
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@newswire Strong Demand for Wood in China in the Second Half of 2016 Resulted in Both Record High Imports of Softwood Lumber and Logs @newswire/strong-demand-for-wood-in-china-in-the-second-half-59c7f Total importation of logs and lumber (in roundwood equivalents) reached almost 76 million m3 in 2016, which was up 17% from 2015, and almost 38% higher than five years ago. #lumber #wood #china
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@Leon It's amateur hour in Washington :-) A trade deficit isn't the result of unfair foreign competition but the result of monetary expansion, of $$$ printing, of QE's, of Petro Dollars! Such unsound money has created a demand for imported goods the US was not able to produce. It's the cheat factor of #fiat currencies that's responsible for trade imbalances, not unfair competition from China, Germany, Japan or #Mexico. With #Trump's border taxes America is triggering a rerun of the 1930s depression. "The greatest threat to world trade comes not from the break-up of the #EU, nor from #China. It appears to be Trump's lack of understanding of why trade imbalances exist, and his wrongheaded policy of American #protectionism." ~ Alasdair Macleod #gold #commodities #tradeWar #currencyWar https://mises.org/blog/what-trump-means-brexit-china-and-eu
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@Leon We are living in a globalized world of intertwined economies and supply chains. The major companies of the west have out-sourced their production to low cost areas and closed their factories at home. So, to "Make America Great Again" is the #American worker ready to work for USD 6-8/hour on average? ..or are the US companies eager to produce expensive goods nobody is willing to buy because #China offers them for half the price or the Germans in much better quality? These factories #Trump wants to bring back to America are long gone and the new ones employ robots instead of expensive workers that have to be trained on their new jobs first. https://nftrh.com/2017/01/22/protection-will-lead-to-great-prosperity/
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@tommy Steve Bannon in March 2016: 'We're going to war in the South #China Sea ... no doubt' https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/02/steve-bannon-donald-trump-war-south-china-sea-no-doubt wtf. Bannon profile, the Second Most Powerful Man in the World http://time.com/4657665/steve-bannon-donald-trump/
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@Leon @Goldfinger - military action against Iran would be the most stupid decision #Trump could make - the Chinese are already in Syria testing Russian fighter jets and other equipment in action. As everybody knows, they have a mutual assistance pact with Russia and Iran and "article 5" would drag the Chinese depper and faster into the Middle East conflict as one might love - but perhaps that's the reason behind the jibes of Tillerson and Breitbard for going to war with #China in the foreseeable future. #politics
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@Goldfinger A stock that is definitely a bit off topic for CEO.ca for numerous reasons but hey watch this $BIDU: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c9mehv-BIDU_Weekly_001.png+ $250+ $china
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@Goldfinger $China has been loading up on gas guzzlers: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c9mgnl-China_SUVs.png+ $oil
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@nicholaslepan China's red-hot commodities buying continued at a near record pace last month. Iron ore shipments rose 12 percent to the second-highest on record as seaborne supply continued to displace higher-cost production at home, stoking a rally in futures prices to fresh three-year highs. Coal arrivals were the highest for January in three years, and crude imports were the third highest on record. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-commodities-idUSKBN15P0IM #coal #iron #china
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@nicholaslepan China's imports of copper fell 14 percent in January from a year ago as demand from the world's top consumer and producer slowed ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, General Administration of Customs data showed on Friday. China's imports of copper were also down 22 percent from December to 380,000 tonnes in January, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. http://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-trade-copper-idUSL4N1FV1TH #copper #China
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@Goldfinger 21 reactors currently under construction in $China. $CCJ $CCO $uranium
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@Goldfinger 100 gigawatts of nuclear power generation in $China by 2025. $CCJ $CCO $uranium
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@nicholaslepan #China – protest leads to suspension of construction of new #aluminium plant - 200 protestors are reported to have faced off police in the city of Daqing city, China - The protest are against pollution from a the proposed construction of a new aluminium plant - The plant is planned to create >30,000 jobs - Air pollution is blamed for >1.4m premature deaths in China according to the Max Planck Institute - SP Angel's advice to the protestors is to let the state build new plants but to insist on the closure of any older non-environmentally compliant facilities
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@nicholaslepan Asia's copper industry is keeping calm amidst crippled output at two of the world's largest copper mines. Copper inventories tied to China's Shanghai Futures Exchange have surged 61 percent since the week of Jan. 20 to 277,659 tonnes, the most since May 2016, the latest data shows. Stockpiles held in bonded warehouses in China have edged above 500,000 tonnes, from around 450,000 tonnes in November. #china #copper http://www.reuters.com/article/us-copper-supply-disruptions-idUSKBN15U0YP
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@nicholaslepan Terry Dimok, Head Portfolio Manager of National Bank Investments says demand for commodities will remain muted at least in the short term. “Demand from China is decelerating as they switch away from infrastructure spending to a more consumer-driven economy.” Drummond Brodeur, senior vice-president and global strategist with Signature Asset Management suggests to buy whatever China is buying and avoid whatever they are selling. http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/retirement/rrsp/dont-expect-another-commodities-supercycle-but-oil-at-60-is-better-than-30-for-your-portfolio #commodities #China
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@Goldfinger China Leading the Charge for Lithium-Ion Megafactories: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-leading-charge-lithium-ion-megafactories/ $China $lithium
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@nicholaslepan #India has extended anti-dumping duty on some steel products from China by five years, in a bid to retain protectionist barriers and stem the tide of cheap foreign products. Between April and January, India's steel imports fell 37.8 percent year-on-year, data from a government body showed, primarily due to the slew of protectionist steps announced by the government. #china http://in.reuters.com/article/india-steel-antidumping-idINKBN15Z1CK? Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$555.5/t vs US$538.2/t #Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$87.5/t vs US$87.1/t Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$150.0/t vs US$150.4/t
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@Goldfinger "While the Tesla Gigafactory is vitally important from an EV vertical integration perspective, the majority of new lithium-ion battery capacity is being built in China. Some of these plants are expected to be huge such as the CATL facility at 50GWh - there is little doubt that China's lithium-ion industry has come of age." $China $lithium
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