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CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
- President Putin has just ordered the reopening of one of the Soviet Union’s tungsten mines
- The move may well be motivated by raised potential for a trade war between the US and China which may see China restrict the export of strategic minerals such as tungsten, lithium, rare earth metals etc..
- #China restricted supplies of rare earth metals to Japan over a territorial dispute and it is likely that similar tactics may be employed again
- If the world enters a new era of ‘Cold War’ trade tactics then more governments may feel the need to stimulate the construction of new mines and processing plants to protect local industries from being cut out of the supply chains which they have so long taken for granted.
@nicholaslepanChinese coal miners cancel holidays as government relaxes restrictions to stimulate supply
- Mines are rushing to produce as much coal as possible while prices are high and before Beijing reintroduce output restrictions
- Workers are said to be happy to keep going as mines offer 6,000-9,000 yuan in extra bonus for keeping mines running
- #China will still move to swing demand away from coal towards cleaner fuels and energy sources with time but even Chinese politicians understand the social consequences of insufficient fuel for power generation and heating when the weather is cold.
- #Coal prices will likely fall from their peak at $89/t but are likely to remain high as Beijing is expected to clamp down on coal supply and resume its ambition to cut 500mt of capacity once the immediate shortage is over.
@nicholaslepan#China to spend $165bn on #energy saving technologies by 2021 across 13 key industries
- The National Development and Reform Commission has published a list of 296 types of energy saving technologies and methods to reduce carbon emissions. (Bloomberg)
- Key industries for reform are: coal-fired power, electricity, steel, non-ferrous metals, petroleum, petrochemical, chemical, construction materials, machinery, light industry, textiles, transportation and communications industries.
- China’s National Energy Administration has also announced plans to spend around $360bn on renewable energy sources over the coming four years.
- China is constantly looking at how to retain value within China with the cost and national security implications of rising oil imports a particular area of concern.
- China is increasingly focused on cutting carbon fuel imports from both a pollution and balance of payments perspective and finds this a good excuse to stimulate growth in the emerging industries of electric vehicles and other energy efficient applications. Eg its just a good idea all round to make everything more energy efficient.
@GoldfingerGundlach speculates that protectionism is a US dollar negative. I've got to agree as international trade slows and $China continues to liquidate USTs. The question is which currency to hold? $gold
@Goldfinger$Trump and $China getting off to a rocky start with Spicer essentially stating US will contest South China Sea islands. Not sure how US does that if China parks naval ships there. As Moriarty would say, "what are you gonna do? Nuke 'em?"
@nicholaslepanThe Egyptian government is considering signing a currency swap agreement with #Russia, following in the footsteps of its agreement with China in October, an senior Finance Ministry official. #China and #Egypt on December 6 concluded an 18 billion yuan (US$2.62 billion) three-year bilateral currency swap, a move that importers and economists said would facilitate trade and improve foreign currency liquidity in cash-strapped Egypt. http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/egypt-plans-currency-swap-russia
@nicholaslepanJevons paradox – #China likely to repeat challenge of UK Industrial Revolution
China is experiencing similar issues seen in the UK in the Industrial Revolution of the 18th century and members of the China’s Central Committee might like to consider the Jevons paradox as part of their plans to create greater energy efficiency.
- The English economist William Stanley Jevons, in his book ‘The Coal Question’ published in 1865 coined the Jevons paradox in relation to the need to mine more coal in order to create more energy efficient machinery to cause the mining of less coal.
- The paradox says that increasing energy efficiency may not reduce fuel consumption. Interestingly, improved efficiency is said to lower the relative cost of using an energy resource which tends to raise demand
- With China’s National Development and Reform Commission proposing to spend $165bn on energy saving technologies and China’s National Energy Administration also reporting plans to spend $360bn it may be that these activities actually raise the tonnages of coal and other fossil fuels required rather than lower them. Hence the Jevons paradox!
- With China allowing coal mines to work more days to meet increased demand perhaps we are already seeing the Jevons paradox in action.
@LeonIt's amateur hour in Washington :-) A trade deficit isn't the result of unfair foreign competition but the result of monetary expansion, of $$$ printing, of QE's, of Petro Dollars! Such unsound money has created a demand for imported goods the US was not able to produce. It's the cheat factor of #fiat currencies that's responsible for trade imbalances, not unfair competition from China, Germany, Japan or #Mexico. With #Trump's border taxes America is triggering a rerun of the 1930s depression. "The greatest threat to world trade comes not from the break-up of the #EU, nor from #China. It appears to be Trump's lack of understanding of why trade imbalances exist, and his wrongheaded policy of American #protectionism." ~ Alasdair Macleod #gold#commodities#tradeWar#currencyWarhttps://mises.org/blog/what-trump-means-brexit-china-and-eu
@LeonWe are living in a globalized world of intertwined economies and supply chains. The major companies of the west have out-sourced their production to low cost areas and closed their factories at home. So, to "Make America Great Again" is the #American worker ready to work for USD 6-8/hour on average? ..or are the US companies eager to produce expensive goods nobody is willing to buy because #China offers them for half the price or the Germans in much better quality? These factories #Trump wants to bring back to America are long gone and the new ones employ robots instead of expensive workers that have to be trained on their new jobs first. https://nftrh.com/2017/01/22/protection-will-lead-to-great-prosperity/
@Leon@Goldfinger - military action against Iran would be the most stupid decision #Trump could make - the Chinese are already in Syria testing Russian fighter jets and other equipment in action. As everybody knows, they have a mutual assistance pact with Russia and Iran and "article 5" would drag the Chinese depper and faster into the Middle East conflict as one might love - but perhaps that's the reason behind the jibes of Tillerson and Breitbard for going to war with #China in the foreseeable future. #politics
@nicholaslepan#China – protest leads to suspension of construction of new #aluminium plant
- 200 protestors are reported to have faced off police in the city of Daqing city, China
- The protest are against pollution from a the proposed construction of a new aluminium plant
- The plant is planned to create >30,000 jobs
- Air pollution is blamed for >1.4m premature deaths in China according to the Max Planck Institute
- SP Angel's advice to the protestors is to let the state build new plants but to insist on the closure of any older non-environmentally compliant facilities
@nicholaslepanAsia's copper industry is keeping calm amidst crippled output at two of the world's largest copper mines. Copper inventories tied to China's Shanghai Futures Exchange have surged 61 percent since the week of Jan. 20 to 277,659 tonnes, the most since May 2016, the latest data shows. Stockpiles held in bonded warehouses in China have edged above 500,000 tonnes, from around 450,000 tonnes in November. #china#copperhttp://www.reuters.com/article/us-copper-supply-disruptions-idUSKBN15U0YP
@nicholaslepan#India has extended anti-dumping duty on some steel products from China by five years, in a bid to retain protectionist barriers and stem the tide of cheap foreign products. Between April and January, India's steel imports fell 37.8 percent year-on-year, data from a government body showed, primarily due to the slew of protectionist steps announced by the government. #chinahttp://in.reuters.com/article/india-steel-antidumping-idINKBN15Z1CK?
Chinese #steel rebar 25mm US$555.5/t vs US$538.2/t
#Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$87.5/t vs US$87.1/t
Premium hard coking #coal Aus fob US$150.0/t vs US$150.4/t
@Goldfinger"While the Tesla Gigafactory is vitally important from an EV vertical integration perspective, the majority of new lithium-ion battery capacity is being built in China. Some of these plants are expected to be huge such as the CATL facility at 50GWh - there is little doubt that China's lithium-ion industry has come of age." $China$lithium