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@racker Rick Rule on BNN Market Call this morning He sees copper lower then much higher $IVN biggest position of Rick’s career. Just returned from site-visit. $KLG he’s long. Constructive to Canadian assets. $EDV has delivered tremendous value but is fully priced. $ANF long Anfield Gold because of Ross Beaty, a work-in-progress. $CGP $SOLG.L spectacular, but deep and remote copper discovery in Ecuador. Biased, long Cornerstone. $PVG bullish. CEO Bob Quartermain was successor, trustee of Rick’s will. $NDM $NAK Rick sold because he did so well. Does not believe it will get built this cycle. Not attractive NPV. Tremendous leverage to higher commodity prices.
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@MiningBookGuy $ACA.L “The ban on … concentrate exports from Tanzania has direct and indirect impacts, negatively affecting … our prior investment thesis” http://www.mining-journal.com/financeinvestment/production/the-ban-on-concentrate-exports-from-tanzania-has-direct-and-indirect-impacts-negatively-affecting-our-prior-investment-thesis/ #Tanzania #copper #gold $SHG.L #Africa ~AUfrica #MiningJournal #Index "A ban on concentrate exports from Tanzania that emerged late last week has hit miners focused on that country, including one of Africa’s largest gold miners, Acacia (LN:ACA), and has threatened to derail that company’s proposed merger with Endeavour Mining (CN:EDV)." $ACA.L $EDV
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@MiningBookGuy $TGZ - Teranga CEO on growth, Gryphon, social goals http://www.mining-journal.com/world/north-america/teranga-ceo-on-growth-gryphon-social-goals/ #gold #Senegal #BurkinaFaso #IvoryCoast #WestAfrica #Africa #SocialLicense ~AUfrica #MiningJournal This a MUST-READ, all-encompassing interview with $TGZ CEO Richard Young if you are following the company. I couldn't access this last week for some reason...maybe it's 'free' now? Anyway, I recommend taking a look ASAP in case it's no longer free in the near future. Also noteworthy: I'll copy the last paragraph from the interview here: "MJ: Could you tell us a little bit more about your plans in Côte d’Ivoire? RY: Côte d’Ivoire is considered to be the number one jurisdiction to explore in Africa. We are excited to be there. It’s a good, fast-growing economy, it is mining friendly and the geology is terrific. We are looking for #exploration success, which would be sufficient to allow us to ultimately build a mine in Côte d’Ivoire. There is nothing that I would like more right now than to be in Côte d’Ivoire with a new mine." Cote d'Ivoire = #IvoryCoast. $TGZ is VERY early-stage #exploration here...it says a lot about their interest. The big players you must follow here are $RRS.L #Randgold, $EDV, and $PRU $PRU.AX But as I've mentioned before, $ORG is the #1 #exploration pick, and you can learn more about my thoughts on $ORG and #IvoryCoast in this video I made last week (very relevant to $TGZ ...everyone is looking for 'elephant' deposits here!): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krXUNDjx6gc+
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@Goldfinger Gold Miners At Critical Moment As 20% Correction Threshold Approaches: @goldfinger/gold-miners-at-critical-moment-as-20-correction-threshold-approaches $EDV $GDX $gold $LMC
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@Vaughan Fund manager Chris Beer currently sees more opportunity in energy and industrial metals (zinc and copper) then precious metals https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-09/as-gold-stalls-canada-s-top-equity-fund-manager-likes-oil-zinc - on the precious metals side, Beer likes $edv, $ogc and $txg. For metals, he mentions $teck, $hbm, $az, $ivn, $fm, $bhp and $rio.
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@MiningBookGuy the only big hype i'm aware of was $EDV $ACA.L ...and that might be broken with the recent, serious problems in #Tanzania
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@MiningBookGuy hey @flippy! sorry i missed your post earlier. thanks, and yes, i do have a 'foundation' of bullion (no more details on that! ;) ), and various larger mining companies. i like mid-tiers a lot, and i'll name a few i own (not necessarily the best ones): $NGD (i've taken a big hit with an outsized position in this one) $BTO $EDV $TGZ, and a bit of $FNV as a royalty company. I haven't spent too much time thinking about these, except i'm getting a lot more excited about $TGZ and would be buying here if I wasn't putting so much money into explorers! anyway, main point is that i own a lot of stuff NOT in the explorer category, but #explorers are definitely the main focus right now!
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@MiningBookGuy @internalaudit - i've got to run soon and can't give a detailed answer right now. But $MRZ is definitely a 'classic' prospect generator. $SWA is kind of an odd hybrid...NOT a prospect generator, but $ACA.L earning-into the South Hounde JV is similar to what you see in Prospect Generators (that's the JV you're thinking of). The best way I currently describe $SWA is a #ConsolidationPlay, which is actually pretty rare right now, especially since all signs point to the #SouthHoundeBelt continuing to heat up (even if the $EDV $ACA.L 'rumored merger' falls apart, which I think could go either way right now). One good quick read on this is the $SWA Factsheet, and you can find that here: http://saramaresources.com/Files/Fact-Sheet.aspx I've got to run, but can chat more about this later! #ConsolidationPlays #Houndebelt #SouthHoundeBelt #BurkinaFaso
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@MiningBookGuy David Erfle Shares His Top Mining Picks | Kitco News https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5YSr9Z7HE+ Top Picks from Dec 2016: $WRN $DEF $EDV Some new top picks: $NHK $KDX $KLDX $SBB (as takeover target) #DavidErfle #JuniorMinerJunky #kitco
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david $EDV halted
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@BruceWayne $EDV hopefully some good news regarding Karma
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@MiningBookGuy $EDV - if there weren't serious issues with #Tanzania govt, i would have wagered on blockbuster merger news between $EDV and $ACA.L. doubtful on that, next best guess is something on #Ity in #IvoryCoast, where they are looking at both increased exploration and production, possibly turning it into the flagship asset. i'm very curious
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@nasdaq Endeavour Terminates Discussions For Potential Transaction With Acacia @nasdaq/endeavour-terminates-discussions-for-potential-transaction $EDV $EDVMF
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@MiningBookGuy hehe, well 'opposite' of blockbuster merger news for $EDV :P not unexpected. $EDV still in an excellent position, $ACA.L in a tough position right now
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@MiningBookGuy $ACA.L Termination of Discussions with Endeavour Mining http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/acacia_mining/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=286&newsid=855664 For the record, here is $ACA.L's own 'spin' on the termination of talks with $EDV.
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@Santidreamer $ACA.L not merging with $EDV is good for EDV as $ABX Barrick sold Acacia due to problems caused by a lack of social responsibility The government and community are angry with Acacia,
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@nasdaq Endeavour Receives an In-Principle Agreement from the Government of Côte d'Ivoire to Increase its Ity Ownership to 80% @nasdaq/endeavour-receives-an-in-principle-agreement-from $EDV $EDVMF
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@MiningBookGuy Acacia Mining losing US$1m a day due to Tanzania export ban http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/24/acacia-mining-losing-1m-day-due-tanzania-export-ban/ (h/t @sndwky) $ACA.L #Tanzania #gold #copper ~AUfrica #index Partial Quotes: "The ban affects products from two of Acacia’s three mines; its North Mara mine is unaffected. Acacia has enjoyed a turnaround in fortunes of late and is thought to be generating enough free cash to cover short-term costs from the export ban. However the uncertainty surrounding the ban led to Endeavour Mining of Canada pulling out of merger talks earlier this week. The deal would have created a $3bn gold miner with assets across Africa." $EDV
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@MiningBookGuy @internalaudit @Ruffus23 - i've got some 'positive spin' on the breakdown of the $EDV $ACA.L deal for $SWA ...it's something I've been thinking about all week, and hopefully I'll have time to go on a rant later this weekend. I think it will be interesting to anyone following #WestAfrica gold plays, even if they don't have direct interest in $SWA (but $SWA happens to be at the center of activity). As a teaser, I will try to justify why $SWA could actually fit better with a wider range of companies because of this event...and i'll also try to cover related companies in detail. will all be in the ~AUfrica panel, hopefully by the end of the weekend!
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@DXM Good to see at least $EDV rejection of $ACA.L but could they go hostile ???
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@Excelsior @MiningBookGuy - Wow. I didn't realize that #Tanzania had that export ban, Tanzania Ban Export of Mineral Concentrates http://www.tanzaniainvest.com/mining/ban-export-mineral-concentrates It's really a shame that the merger with $ACA.L and $EDV is off. That would have been a juggernaut. Maybe $EDV will go shopping for another solid player instead. I can think of a few I wouldn't mind them making an offer on. :-) Now that I think about it, maybe $ACA.L needs to diversify out of Tanzania as well and pick up a few of the #Development stage companies I hold in #WestAfrica (a guy can dream right?)
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@MiningBookGuy @Excelsior - good thoughts on $ACA.L $EDV! I will have some more soon in ~AUfrica ...will find some more time this weekend soon :)
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@MiningBookGuy @DXM - will be addressing $EDV and $ACA.L and relation to $SWA in a few minutes. @Ruffus23 - i'm not expecting $EDV to make any acquisitions in near-term. but you are correct that they COULD buy a lagging junior on-the-cheap with their highly valued shares. $EDV in a very strong position here. posting more in the ~AUfrica panel on all this..
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@MiningBookGuy As promised (btw, needed to make a 'public promise' so i would actually get to this before the end of the weekend!), here's my #WestAfrica ran in the ~AUfrica panel, focused around $SWA, but really involving many of the major players as well. This is definitely positively biased, because I own many of these companies that will be mentioned. But I'll try to include positives/negatives each time I mention one. We'll see how this goes...i just think it's good timing to get this all out there. Additional starting note: I'll be using lots of tags. the key tag is ~AUfrica...that is how you can follow the whole rant from beginning to end. And here are the companies i plan to discuss, with ownership disclosure (and i may end up mentioning a few others as well): 1. $EDV (own it) 2. $ACA.L (do NOT own it) 3. $SWA (own it) 4. $TGZ (own it) 5. $PRU $PRU.AX (do NOT own it) 6. $ORG (own it) 7. $ORR.AX (do NOT own it) ...and likely will mention others. now let's get to it!
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@MiningBookGuy So the catalyst for this rant is that the $EDV $ACA.L merger will NOT be going through. you can find background on this in the $EDV and $ACA.L rooms, and a key reason are the problems in #Tanzania, related to $ACA.L mines. I recommend people to check these out if they are NOT familiar. This activity is especially important to me because it was a key mention in my recent $SWA #HoundeBelt focused video, which can be reviewed here ( with $EDV $ACA.L mentioned in the middle): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaANyHF1Yd8+ To my knowledge, no one else has addressed the consequences of this 'broken merger' yet, and especially has not addressed the consequences related to $SWA. That is the main focus here...but keep in mind whether or not there was an $EDV $ACA.L merger has a HUGE impact on overall #WestAfrica and #Africa #gold consolidation over the next few years. I'm also going to re-post my #WestAfrica video from about a year ago, because it is also VERY relevant here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vVo3TbqnSE+ Basically, I've been thinking hard about all this stuff over the past week, and I thought it would be helpful to get this into the ~AUfrica panel (which is perfectly relevant). Even though I've been thinking about this, I didn't write anything in advance. So some thoughts will be jumbled. Anyway, I'll starting going through the companies one-by-one now...
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@MiningBookGuy 1. $EDV Endeavour Mining - still in a position of strength. IMO, a key shift based on the possible merger was a 'heavier' weighting either to #BurkinaFaso or #IvoryCoast. If the merger went through, absolutely the #Hounde Project was going to be the flagship. All of this was detailed in my $SWA video, and it would have made perfect sense for there to be the ultimate consolidation, as a combined $EDV and $ACA.L would snap up $SWA & $SCA, and easily have something comparable to $SMF's Mana in the north of the #HoundeBelt. Well, it's NOT happening! So what's next? It's simple: $EDV has done an excellent job preparing for #IvoryCoast growth, and I already vision #Ity being AT LEAST as important as #Hounde, and perhaps more so, with the incredible exploration potential surrounding it (this has been well documented in the #NorthernMiner and recent NRs). also, note that an important #Ity focused NR came out SOON after the break-up of the $EDV $ACA.L merger: Endeavour Receives an In-Principle Agreement from the Government of Côte d'Ivoire to Increase its Ity Ownership to 80% @nasdaq/endeavour-receives-an-in-principle-agreement-from ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy Basically, $EDV is cruising with excellent #development projects AND #exploration projects. Their own big weakness? mine-life for pretty much all of their projects...which was a big incentive for the $ACA.L merger in the first place. and here's the segue into $ACA.L ... 2. I know Acacia Mining - $ACA.L (formerly African Barrick) is under-followed and misunderstood by most North American investors. ALL of current production is in #Tanzania ...that was already not a great thing BEFORE these serious problems with the government. BUT, #Bulyanhulu is a true world-class gold mine ( #Tier1? I think it is, and if not, it's really really close). And the other mines no slouches either. There were operational issues getting fixed, and turning these into cash cows. $EDV surely liked the great mine-life (btw, I still don't know if $ACA.L or $EDV 'initiated' the merger talks. but i am sure both saw the positives here). And even with the misunderstood production from $ACA.L, probably even fewer people understood the brilliant exploration work going on! I will emphasize that I saw some great value creation under #PeterSpora, who has led #exploration at $ACA.L for years, and it's 100% obvious that they NEED to diversify out of #Tanzania. The 3 focuses (so far) are #Kenya #BurkinaFaso #Mali, #EastAfrica and #WestAfrica. Clearly, this was the right thing to be doing, because #Tanzania is just causing further headaches right now! (btw, i don't want to discuss if $ACA.L or #Tanzania govt is the main culprit here...there is long, controversial history going back to African Barrick. All we need to know is that $ACA.L needed to diversify, and they've been going about it the right way) ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy So a bit more with $ACA.L and still touching on $EDV - there's no doubt in my mind that $ACA.L would have benefited more than $EDV IMMEDIATELY from this merger. the clear cross-over to me was the #HoundeBelt, especially centering on $SWA -- in my opinion, there was a clear possibility for immediate synergies with the #Hounde project and all the $ACA.L exploration directly to the south of this project. If you put all this stuff together AND further discoveries are made (keep in mind this whole are is VERY prospective, one of the hottest areas in the world for gold drilling right now), i think it would be realistic to get to 10M+ oz of resource, and maybe even 5M+ oz of reserves at some point...effectively becoming #tier1 over time. So $EDV gets it's first real 'tier one', and $ACA.L immediately gets 'something' big' outside of #Tanzania, which they so desperately need... ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy but this ain't happening! now what? $EDV is going to get a very solid mine into production with #Hounde (talking ~200k oz/year, good margins at $1200 oz gold) around the end of 2017, definitely by 2018. They are still good to go here, still have PLENTY of interesting stuff in #BurkinaFaso ...but as stated earlier, i think #IvoryCoast becomes even MORE interesting to them over time, especially because of #Ity. $EDV may come back to 'the rest of the #HoundeBelt', but they've got so much other good stuff going. $ACA.L though...they've got problems that need to be solved ASAP! i will oversimplify, but again, $SWA is still my own main focus, and i'm doing this as someone biased in this regard: ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy $ACA.L - Acacia Mining 1. they need to fix the #Tanzania problems ASAP! this is about more than getting paid for gold exports. This is about getting a really solid, long-term understanding with the Tanzanian government. Honestly, I don't like any of the stuff i'm seeing. this was a super nasty surprise to $ACA.L, and it's a #1 priority to 'fix' this. 2. but #2 priority is super important as well: get a 'serious' mine OUTSIDE of #Tanzania ASAP. These 2 points create the biggest positives/negatives for $SWA in the near-future. The negative is that #1 'might' mess things up on the exploration front. Really, I don't know if $ACA.L's very clear exploration plan will be changed in any way BECAUSE of this massive disruption on the operations front. I do NOT expect this to be disruptive...but I'm biased, and it's been in the back of my mind all week. On the other hand: assuming exploration is NOT disrupted, absolutely $SWA is as key as ever to the gameplan! Now the #Kenya project is and will remain #1, based on everything i've seen in recent NRs and the last major #exploration powerpoint from $ACA.L. One thing that might not be as important to others (but probably should have been for the past year or so), was the significant progress with $ORR.AX, on their JV'ed project with $ACA.L. $ORR.AX seems to fit a lot of $ACA.L needs for a new mine: ~200k oz/year production, good mine-life, high-grade, etc....BUT, it's in #Tanzania! I already got the impression what $ACA.L is doing in the #HoundeBelt in #BurkinaFaso (centered around $SWA) was the clear #2 after #Kenya. I am very, very confident this will remain #2, with a chance of going to #1 IF there is a major discovery this year. BUT, I want to emphasize that I thought this could have been immediately to #1 if the $EDV $ACA.L merger happened. I'm rambling a bit: But we need to all realize that $ACA.L is a key player in this whole #WestAfrica / #Africa consolidation game. And I am 'a bit disappointed' that we didn't actually see this merger go through...from the point-of-view of $SWA (*note- from the point-of-view of $EDV, this was the right move! i own both $SWA and $EDV, so sometimes it's tough to balance what's good for me :P ) ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy 2. A bit more on $ACA.L - they have clearly stated they need 200k+ oz/year production, an 'Acacia-Sized' mine. They are NOT there with $SWA yet. They WISH they had $EDV's #Hounde project. but they don't. I would LOVE to see $ACA.L make more discoveries with their $SWA JV and other properties in the #SouthHoundeBelt. But it might not happen. With NO $EDV $ACA.L merger on the table, we need to take a step back when it comes to $SWA. That's the other part of what I've been thinking about this week...is there some real 'silver-lining' to NO deal? Oh there absolutely is! I will mostly talk about positives from here on out. Pretty much all the negatives are around the $ACA.L uncertainty...but this uncertainty is what allows other players to possibly 'steal' something that fits their own strategic needs far better...let's get into that! ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy 3/4. $SWA Sarama Resources $TGZ Teranga Gold So one thing I will always praise $SWA for is the 'optionality' of their strategy (different from 'gold price optionality', but the word is still very fitting). NO merger means a much higher likelihood that we move down from an 'Acacia-sized' deposit at ~200k+ oz/year production, to an 'intermediate scale' deposit as described in recent powerpoints: we're talking about ~100k-120k oz/year. The thing is, THIS is what #WestAfrica has been mostly about in recent years: there have been plenty of acquisitions of this size, as companies have 'emerged' into the mid-tier space, putting together a few 'medium sized' mines and extracting a lot of value that way. It's exactly what $EDV did and continues to do (though they are approaching a size where like $ACA.L, they much prefer longer mine life and production closer to 200k oz/year). Anyway, it's a very important point that there are PLENTY of players that would be more than happy with the 'intermediate scale' ~100k-120k oz/year production that $SWA could realize fairly easily (while 'Acacia-sized' is much more of a longshot at this stage WITHOUT the $EDV merger)... taking us into $TGZ territory! ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy $TGZ - in my video, i talked about $TGZ being a 'wildcard' with potential interest in $SWA. The thing is, the biggest 'negative' of an $EDV $ACA.L merger could have been the LACK of a bidding war for $SWA (and $SCA for that matter). They just would have been 'scooped up' by the combined entity, with no room for a competing offer. I had to mention $TGZ because it 'made sense'. But what I could have seen happening would have been a nice return for $SWA shareholder (and it happening VERY quickly). BUT, the power/leverage would have been with the 'emerging mega- #Africa major of a combined $EDV / $ACA.L Now, $ACA.L is still in the driver seat...BUT, the dynamic is already VERY different. And IMO, $TGZ has jumped from being 'wildcard' in this game to being the #1 potential acquirer of $SWA. Really, $SWA at it's current stage is an absolutely PERFECT fit for $TGZ! Some of you may have already realized this (btw, make sure to watch the recent video @Excelsior posted in the $TGZ if you want to know more)...but i must continue to emphasize the point myself. IF $ACA.L 'gives up' (and even if they don't...but they kind of focus energies elsewhere besides the #SouthHoundeBelt), $TGZ would LOVE to 'steal the show' here. #GoldenHill is the key...this was mentioned in my $SWA video. But I'll add that we should be seeing results as early as April from #GoldenHill exploration drilling.... ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy $TGZ - Teranga I'm telling you right now that IF these are some spectacular results, $TGZ is going to get even more excited about the adjacent #Bondi, and really really thinking hard about 'somehow' getting all of $SWA's properites from $ACA.L. This might already be happening anyway...the reason it's so 'perfect' is that all the elements are already in place: $TGZ has a great 'cornerstone' asset in #Sabodala in #Senegal, where we are seeing ~200k oz/year production. The current #development project is #Banfora in #BurkinaFaso, where we are likely looking at ~100k-120k oz/year production from the Feasibility study (coming out mid-2017, and production is expected 2019). IF $TGZ can get ALL of $SWA properties on the #SouthHoundeBelt to combine with #Goldenhill, we would be looking at a minimum 100k oz/year, and perhaps a lot more! (depending on $TGZ's own drilling success as well). And I think this could all be put into production by 2021 or so (which would be great timing to follow #Banfora production in 2019). It might not sound super impressive. But to go from ~200k oz/year production to ~400k+ oz/year production in ~5 years is VERY impressive, and it's similar to what $EDV already accomplished earlier this decade (and now they are supercharged). ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy $TGZ - Teranga And a bit more on $TGZ in relation to $EDV: I strongly believe $TGZ is best positioned as 'the next $EDV', or the current 'mini $EDV'. it certainly helps that they have a similar 'cornerstone' sharholder (David Mimran with $TGZ, Naguib Sawiris with $EDV). BUT, keep in mind a super-twist would be $EDV possibly buying $TGZ, and somewhere in that mix $SWA / $SCA still get scooped up (maybe leaving out $ACA.L). I think this is low-probability because I think Mimran is determined to grow and possibly even 'compete' with $EDV ...but what has happened here is that $ACA.L moves down the interest list, with $TGZ right at the top, and $EDV still strongly in the background. These thoughts aren't super clear...but I wanted to throw this out there because the dynamic has changed, and $TGZ is POSSIBLY the biggest winner of all BECAUSE of the $EDV and $ACA.L merger not happening! This is interesting to me even if I wasn't a shareholder..it's a fascinating chess game being played out in #WestAfrica. ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy 5. $PRU $PRU.AX - Perseus Gold ...but I wouldn't be going through all this effort if I wasn't primarily interested in $SWA (which is a much larger holding of mine than either $EDV or $TGZ). And for $SWA, I strongly believe there biggest improvement is the possible emergence of a bidding war! Now there could be many more players than what i'm mentioning. But I really need to emphasize $PRU here (btw, I like to also post $PRU.AX because their ASX listing is more important than others that are dual-listed. there is more good info on them at #HotCopper). There's a few reasons here: 1. one that i'm sure many people missed, but really is important-- see the following news release AND my comments on it at the following 2 links: a. Chairman of Perseus Mining Limited to retire @marketwired/chairman-of-perseus-mining-limited-to-retire b. https://ceo.ca/pru?5c303e405f88 Don't underestimate the fact that Sean Harvey has been Chairman of $SWA since inception (i think this is true), and just now became Chairman of $PRU. This is especially important because of recent issues with $PRU operations (and IMO, strategy as well). 2. In terms of both operations/strategy, it's worth comparing directly to $TGZ. In fact, both $TGZ and $PRU are competing to be 'the next $EDV' in my mind. a. $TGZ has a 'solid' producing asset in Sabodala. $PRU has a disappointing/underperforming one with #Edikan in #Ghana. b. $TGZ just acquired #Banfora from $GRY.AX a year ago, and I think it's in the 'sweet-spot' for increased production as a ~100k oz/year asset. $PRU made an impressive acquisition of $AMA.L for #Yaoure. But it's a much larger, and more expensive project. This would be fine IF #Edikan was a cashcow...but it's not. And on top of this, $PRU is going to try to put into production a much smaller asset in #Sissingue. ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy 5. $PRU $PRU.AX - Perseus Mining I've picked on $PRU in the past...the thing is, they might actually be getting their act together! It's intriguing to me that Sean Harvey became Chairman, and they were able to successfully raise significant debt DESPITE problems with both #Edikan and #Sissingue: Perseus Mining Limited secures funding for growth strategy @marketwired/perseus-mining-limited-secures-funding-for-growth-strategy I really thought they would need to dilute, and possibly go into a death spiral. I love seeing potential turnarounds. So $PRU is already much more interesting to me even if nothing happens with $SWA... BUT, i really do think $SWA is as great a fit for $PRU as it is for $TGZ. The Sean Harvey point is key: again, Chairman of both $SWA and $PRU, and a very significant shareholder of $SWA (I'm not sure of $PRU). This would also be good country diversification, as they have a struggling mine in #Ghana, 2 #IvoryCoast projects (#Yaoure actually looking very compelling, but just 'too big' for $PRU right now, and i think that's the main reason it's development seems delayed). I think $PRU could be fine with just these 2 #IvoryCoast projects in the pipeline (also keeping in mind they do seem to have some excellent exploration potential, and I am sure they expect #Sissingue to grow in both reserves and production via near-term #exploration potential). But $SWA would hit their 'sweet-spot' just as much as it would hit $TGZ. Again, this is all coming from the breakdown of $EDV and $ACA.L merger. $TGZ is the 'best' fit'...but $PRU could be serious about this, even if $TGZ holds onto #GoldenHill. And as a $SWA shareholder, of course I would LOVE to see these 2 mid-tiers get into a bidding war! So I'm basically stating that the best consequence of the $EDV $ACA.L breakdown is that a bidding war from mid-tiers is a much higher possibility, and $SWA really does fit the needs of $TGZ $PRU, and a few others. I'm already spending more time on this than I expected. But I will briefly mention the new wildcard to end... ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy 6. $ORG Orca Gold point #3 cont... It would not surprise me at all if only a handful of CEO.CA were aware of the following news back in 2009: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/red-back-to-buy-moto-goldmines-for-513-million/article4355021/ I actually think this is a PERFECT place to end this super long ~AUfrica rant! The thing is, it's just amazing how much can change because one deal falls through, or a superior bid comes in. And this even gets back at the $SWA value proposition: Do people realize that the core $SWA team ran Moto Gold Mines, which is now the FLAGSHIP mine for $RRS.L Randgold in #DRC #Congo?? I have mentioned this before, and it's in $SWA materials. But really, there were only 2 #Tier1 mega Africa gold stories in the mid-2000s that I'm aware of: #Redback with #Tasiast, and #MotoGoldMines with #Kibali. Basically, what #Redback was trying to do in 2009 could be EXACTLY like what they could attempt here! But IF the $EDV $ACA.L merger HAD taken place, what $SWA has in the #SoutHoundeBelt could have ended up looking like what #Kibali is for $RRS.L and #AngloGoldAshanti as partner as a the top project/mine for a senior miner. So I am definitely reaching with $ORG as a possible acquirer or merger with $SWA ...but elements are there! And I only touched on 3 possibilities here...the big picture is that $SWA is much more 'open-game' for mid-tiers now, rather than being consolidated into a powerhouse major ~AUfrica
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@MiningBookGuy Time to step away from the computer...there are definitely gaps in my commentary (and many tangents). But this is one last post for people who are confused seeing only part of the discussion: Make sure to check the ~AUfrica panel, where the ENTIRE 'rant' is logged from beginning to end. Companies mentioned include: $EDV (own it) $ACA.L (do NOT own it) $ORR.AX (do NOT own it) $SWA - Sarama (own it) $TGZ (own it) $PRU $PRU.AX (do NOT own it) $ORG (own it) $SCA - Savary (own it) $RRS.L (do NOT own it) Anyone is welcome to post in the ~AUfrica panel, but just needs access. Primary focus is gold companies in Africa. But a close 2nd is anything related #Africa (just not other parts of the world). Just send me a private message or send a public message anywhere and tag @MiningBookGuy if you would like access to post! I have neglected ~AUfrica, and one of the reasons I wanted to get this rant out is to show a good example of the type of content I'm going for (but any questions related to this or similar stories in #Africa would be EXCELLENT follow-up content!). Ok, time to take a break! PS - ALL of the above is completely my opinion. I just enjoy trying to piece the puzzle together and using my imagination...and hopefully I'm correct on some of the positives. But it would be 'lucky' for sure if some of the positives I'm suggesting actually happens!
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@Excelsior @MiningBookGuy - Amazing coverage of the #WestAfrica #Gold scene as it is continuing to consolidate. There were far too many points for me to respond to but everyone should spend some time and read through that series of posts to see how this failed $ACA.L $EDV merger (due to the export ban in #Tanzania) really changed the batting order of who may get acquired next by both of those companies as they move to diversify into different #development stage and #exploration stage companies, or other small to mid-size #gold #producers. I'd also bring up that $IAG $IMG Iamgold is tied up in their merger with $MXI Merrex gold at present, so they are likely going to sit this one out. The first 2 companies I though of once the news broke was $TGZ Teranga and $PRU $PRU.AX Perseus as potential new acquisitions for $EDV or $ACA.L to get their production profiles expanded immediately. Persus is more in debt and encumbered with poor operational results at current gold prices, and is still a bit tied up with their Amara acquisition. $TGZ is solid, and really cheap at present, so if either of the big boys grabbed the next logical mid-tier it would likely be Teranga. However, the next thought I had after reading the deal fell through, was that $SWA Sarama or $SCA may get aquired by $TGZ to consolidate the #SouthHoundeBelt and compliment their Golden Hill project. In that recent $TGZ video posted from the #SwissMiningInstitute conference, they unpacked their increased efficiencies at Sabadola, their ramp of #development at #Banfora and then they went through their 3 other main #Exploration targets. Clearly, Golden Hill is the one they are putting their focus on, so it could make good strategic sense for them to acquire $SWA or $SCA to lock down more property in that area. It wouldn't be fair not to mention that $ROG Roxgold is also right there in the thick of the action in the South Hounde Belt and could also be a wildcard acquisition for $ACA.L or $EDV, or $ROG could surprise us all and be the company that does the acquiring of $SWA or $SCA. Another thought I had recently is that since $SCA is a Ross Beaty company and so is $ORG, I also wouldn't rule out those 2 being consolidated in his #Africa land grab. We haven't discussed $AKG Asanko or $SMF Semafo yet either, but they also may do some acquiring or $AKG may also get acquired by $EDV or $ACA.L. I'm actually surprised no other companies have made a move on $AKG or $ROG yet, and this brings up the point that there is also room for another large #Major or #MidTier Gold #Producer to decide to diversify into #WestAfrica and get in on the action. (I would NOT rule out a market surprise from another Senior miner coming in and locking up some of these projects). Lastly, it is important to bring up some of the MOST LIKELY candidates for #takeover or #takeout in #WestAfrica - those being 1) $HUM.L - Hummingbird Resources 2) $AVK - Avnel Gold 3) $ORE - Orezone. Since the deal with $EDV and $ACA.L is off the table, I could see both of those larger companies going after one of these 3 #Developers who are so much closer to #production than the earlier stage #Explorers. *** This is definitely going to be an exciting 1-2 years in West Africa where we'll likely see the number of companies consolidated down substantially in an #acquisition frenzy. Bring it !!! ~AUfrica
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@Brendan wow this went above and beyond @MiningBookGuy great job, very interesting. I have been pondering a lot of this for a while. I look at more producers than explorers, so was not aware of $swa $sca although i do own $org . i haven't seen it mentioned, but $rsg.ax might be a dark horse acquirer of some of these down the road (they have become a billion dollar market cap company so their shares would be useful taking out some of the cheaper competitors) all in all i am probably most optimistic about $tgz right now (i don't follow the small explorers much so maybe if i did i would pick $swa as my top pick - who knows?) i feel right now about $tgz the way i felt a year and a half ago about $edv
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@MiningBookGuy @Brendan - thanks for mentioning $RSG.AX. They definitely should be looked at as a 'dark horse acquirer'. But for whatever reason, they've publicly focused on 2 potential acquisitions (and current investments) outside of #WestAfrica: $KGL in #DRC #Congo, and $MSR.AX in #Tanzania. I know they have many exploration projects in #WestAfrica, and flagship mine in #Mali (with advanced development in #Ghana). It's a good one to be aware of, and the main reason most people probably don't follow it is because it's only listed on the ASX. #ASX-Stocks And I agree with you on $TGZ! It feels a lot like $EDV a few years ago, and I am sure this is NOT a coincidence. Who wouldn't want to be 'the next $EDV'? both in growth profile and stock price appreciation :) ~AUfrica
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@LucTenHave Endeavour Silver Reports Initial NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate and Preliminary Economic Assessment for El Compas Mine, Zacatecas, Mexico Bradford Cooke, CEO of Endeavour Silver, commented, "We look forward to developing El Compas into our fourth mine. The mine should generate robust economic returns at current metal prices because the two known mineralized zones (El Compas and El Orito) are relatively shallow and high grade. The operation is very scalable if we discover or purchase additional mineral resources in the Zacatecas district and refurbish the second ball mill to double the plant capacity to 500 tonnes per day (tpd). With the low capital investment of US$10 million funded by existing cash, and the short timeline of only six months to initial production once we receive the explosives permit and tax clarity, the El Compas mine has the near-term potential to become a healthy contributor to our consolidated cash flow." $EDV
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@LucTenHave More info on $XAG $EDV locations in my Nov-2016 $mio.l piece on ReRateStocks.com http://www.reratestocks.com/single-post/2016/11/20/Minco-PLC-LON-MIO-%C2%A30013 (section 4.6)
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@MiningBookGuy @LucTenHave - I think you meant $EXK $EDR for 'Endeavour Silver', NOT $EDV for 'Endeavour Mining'. Just wanted to clarify for those following your interesting posts relating $XAG $MIO.L $EXK $EVR, so that people aren't confused. These companies don't help themselves with easy-to-confuse names and tickers!
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