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@Alan It's interesting to hear the comments on here regarding companies like $FF $GOLD $BRI and other well promoted stocks. All the attention (whether good or bad), generates further attention and promotion. What I do know is that #Keithneumeyer and #amiradnani have attracted the attention of well seasoned investors and speculators like #rickrule and #dougcasey. Ask yourself why is this is the case? Good people find good people. If they didn't, they probably wouldn't be good people. Insider buying is strong in both companies mentioned and have- what I believe- is great management and great owners. They are well known in the junior mining market. They bought up properties in a bear market for cheap and wrapped them all up in a company for us to become owners of. Now I am biased as I own both but as a speculator I'm trying to buy the 4% of people that generate the 64% of the returns. #mbgtrends
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@MiningBookGuy @Alan - good post, and i'll play a little devil's advocate even though i don't hold positions in $FF $GOLD $BRI. not trying to specifically put down these companies, but here's a possible thought for discussion: from my limited DD, I do NOT see quality deposits in these companies. yes, we could argue these are 'good people' (though that's debatable as well). but the key thing for me is that i am MUCH more likely to buy into companies that have "A-level deposits/prospectivity" and "B-level people", than the other way around. and i do think some people would say that $FF $GOLD $BRI might even be getting into the C or D level of geology...hence, #optionality can always be used as positive-spin (and it works!) i could have used many other examples for this (again, not trying to specifically knock these companies down). but using them since @alan brought it up for discussion in #mbgtrends, and they just get so, so much press (yes, they get an A+ for promotion/exposure!). people have made a lot of money with these and will likely make more. but i think the focus on "people over projects" fits into the narrative, and it's not how i (generally) like to play this game it's not this simple though. happy to clarify if anyone wants to discuss further.
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@BrianBitcoinBull @Alan @miningbookguy Great points with regards to $FF and $BRI $GOLD they are definitely optionality plays. Most of the projects have had quite a bit of money spent on them during the previous bull market and have been largely de-risked. I think there is something to be said for individuals who have a proven track record. As well as accumulating assets in relatively good jurisdictions. Some people are into much more risk with exploration in somewhat questionable jurisdictions.I see both of these companies trying to replicate what Lumina Copper and Silver Standard did in previous bear markets. I do own some $FF based on the jurisdiction and optionality.
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Anonymous $FF $BRI $GOLD Rule and Casey got ultra cheap stock in these companies with warrants. They are getting a 20x better deal than anyone who buys this overvalued junk in the open market. They would never buy it at the prices available to you or I. Also, their projects are not de-risked until they get rid of them. There are much better optionality plays out there.
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@TheHolyBuyBull Is any of that going to matter much when gold inevitably peaks over $1800 again?
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@FundamentalAnalysis @TheHolyBuyBull Lets not get too carried away with gold prices. We could be in a long neutral gold price environment for a very long time..........
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@BrianBitcoinBull More than likely not even if we see Gold at $1500 it will be a major run in this company. Even if Gold were to crash it would hurt the share price but they are not producers it gives them a great opportunity to purchase more assets. I will not say the same thing about Amir as I will for Keith. Keith buys shares all the time of all his companies on the open market. I have never seen him sell. I know Katusa went back and forth with him for months when they first started this company about position size. I agree Keith promotes his company more than I like but he also does everything he can for his shareholders. There are thousands of mining companies out there in various stages, I prefer to be with people who consistently put their own money into their companies. I have been in resources for 6-7 years now and have seen many companies that are run so the management can do just enough to get their salary. People is only one of the 7 P's or whatever number of P's it is now that Casey has. I honestly can't remember. But you ask anyone Rule, Katusa, Casey, etc. They always talk about how important it is to be with the right people. In all honesty I have met 2 of the 3 and I don't any of them would do a deal with someone they didn't know and trust regardless of the project.
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@DrunkenSpeculator Katusa already sold his entire position in $FF
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@Ted If Katusa sold his entire position, it is a signal that the speculation phase of the company holdings has peaked. As projects go from the exploratory/speculation level classifications and then towards resource/production delineation phases, the stock price generally falls back to levels which suggest their true "intrinsic valuations" which in the case of First Mining Finance, could be reasonably construed as being lower than where they are today.
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Anonymous @BrianBitcoinBull You dont get it...Casey/Katusa is a pump and dumper. These guys get incredibly cheap stock and warrants and then foist it on dumb retail people. There are plenty of good people out there with good projects. $FF is a glorified garbage collector that owns mostly shit and it has 500M shares.
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@Ted The Goldlund Gold Project still has open end potential with more work but in its current resource model state, presents as a series of sheeted vein sets which are widely spaced which will make it difficult to mine at the current gold price due to massive waste rock dilution when bulk mining across the entire deposit trend.
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@chatyak I must be dumb retail
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@staffpro $SPA and $ME are much better optionality plays than $FF, you are getting gold at 6$ and 12$ USD/ounce respectively with upcoming PEA and Drill results respectively ... FF last time i checked was at 30$/ounce for what @anonymous said and i agree is garbage, i'm not hating the company i made money from 40 cents to 1 dollar in early 2016 but then when the market cap crossed 500 million i was out the door
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@chatyak @staffpro - where are you getting $30 an ounce?
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@chatyak FF paid less than $9 per ounce of gold for the Hope Brook Gold project if I recall and less than $8.50 per ounce of gold for the Springpole project. Less than $8 per ounce of gold for the Pickle Crow project. Would need to check to verify exact.
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@chatyak @excelsior may know offhand - walking encyclopedia
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@TheHolyBuyBull I think he means what the valuation is now based on the share price
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SEDI_bot First Mining Finance Corp. (formerly Albion Petroleum Ltd.) $FF just filed 14 reports. View full report: SEDI:FF
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@chatyak Thanks @Jayfire !
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@Excelsior @chatyak - looks like @Jayfire is on the case! #SharpDude
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@FundamentalAnalysis I'm no longer a shareholder of this company ......what amazes me is the valuation. One thing I'm learning about mining speculation is how powerful promotion is.....it is SERIOUSLY important. I would say as important as the property/people especially in the shorter term when it comes to making share price gains. It CANNOT be underestimated. I definitely wouldn't bet against Keith....I think the company will go higher if Gold prices head higher, but cannot see much share price gains outside of that unless there are seriously successful exploration programs in place.
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@FundamentalAnalysis Also promotion becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, the fact that I believe it based on my message, means I will be amongst the participants who pushes share prices higher, which is the point of promotion in the first place.
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@BrianBitcoinBull Promotion attracts the dumb money. The Peter Schiff crowd who came out of the womb and their first word wasn't Mom or Dad it was Gold or Silver! They think if a stock has Gold or Silver in the name it must be a solid investment!! Overall I like Keith's companies but I agree I only purchase them when everyone hates the sector and when the Gold and Silver Bugs are on suicide watch!!!! Because when you do get the run up they get crazy overbought. Fundamentally I won't say they are horrible companies but the valuations compared to others because of Keith's "brand", promotion and dumb money can make them way overvalued. The one point you might be missing is that at-least with $FF its an optionality play where Keith came in trying to replicate Lumina Copper and Silver Standard as well as a few others who bought optionality plays at the depths of a bear market and did quite well when the market turned. I tend to disagree with your exploration thesis, I think this is a sell properties to the greater fool thesis in an upcycle. In my opinion you own this stock to sell it to some clown when Gold is at $1500 who has never owned a Gold stock in his life. That's how you play these companies.
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@staffpro @chatyak current market cap/ounces of gold is at 30$ which is just above industry average for explorers if i recall
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@staffpro @chatyak they did aquire properties for cheaper last year like you mentioned but then the shares rallied alot that's why i took my profit and looked elsewhere like $SPA and $ME 6$/ounce gold and sub 13$/ounce gold first one has imminent PEA second one has drill results which will likely make the 13$ figure sub 10
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@TheDarkKnight I see that #ameduri and #Neumeyer are up to there old tag team on $FF this past week. Another update from future money trends just hit my inbox this morning
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from #promotions,
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@steelpiston71 Moving up nicely after months being range bound.
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@RocketRed FMT humping $ff again
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from #index,
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@staffpro @rocketRed unloading shares onto dumb retail same with $GOLD I bet Katusa goes to sleep with a picture of Amir Adnani on his bedside table the way he talks about him haha much better optionality plays $ME and $SPA (12 or 6$/ounce respectively gold) - both with imminent catalysts. $FF is 30$+/ounce in the ground for garbage $GOLD haven't calculated it in a while but it's upthere as well
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@staffpro same story with the FMT host talks about Kieth like he is the next Jesus $FF
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@FundamentalAnalysis @staffpro you've become quite harsh lol.
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@Let_them_eat_silver If he' throwing the money - changers out of the temple, then I'm all for him ;)
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@staffpro i'm not harsh @fundamentalAnalysis i bought $FF at $0.40 when it was trading for something close to 12-14$/ounce in the ground, i then sold at 1$ when market cap crossed over 500m, it is now over $30/ounce there are better speculative plays sub $15 ounce in the ground STILL
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@staffpro that said he is paying FMT and on every newsletter and yada yada yada and KAtusa was pumping him too at one point i don't discredit kieth's or Amirs promotion efforts but don't be surprised if the share price doesn't go your way because of all the hot air in this and $GOLD $FF
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@FundamentalAnalysis @staffpro I got in at and out at similar prices to you....but I wouldn't bet against Keith and their promotional abilities, despite how expensive company looks.
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@staffpro @fundamentalAnalysis i digress but ya i still follow it but not invested in it as i learned about better opportunities, i certainly don't discount promotion though and publicity, can be very powerful things
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@BrianBitcoinBull @staffpro @fundamentalAnalysis Fundamentals don't matter as much with regards to valuations with $FF or any of Keith or Amirs companies, it is all about sentiment with regards to the underlying commodities. My goal is maximize my profit and all the promotion and premium paid by the non ceo.ca or stockhouse crowd definitely helps. Rather than fighting the pumpers or being jealous that I might have a better resource company/asset fundamentally I learned to embrace it. Its like Amazon which basically makes almost no profit, but they sell a ton of stuff and everyone loves them. So the stock goes higher and higher. Same thing with companies like TESLA everyone loves the story! Nothing wrong with profiting off of other stupidity.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @BrianBitcoinBull I think the point is, if gold prices continue upwards, you can put money in other companies like $SSP which are also optionality type plays yet more advanced and which have more upwards momentum left due to their relatively lower valuation. You just never know Kerrisdale may attack $FF since they are already not neuymeyer fans. Whilst Kerrisdale can't attack $SSP its already quite cheap. The idea is there are better companies around from a valuation perspective. I would disagree that fundamentals don't matter, ultimately it always does. If you look at Amazon, the market is pricing in that Amazon will continue to grow rapidly and generate profits. Throughout these years it has been delivering sales growth and more recently showing profits so fundamentals are actually beginning to play out, but now its pricing in even more future growth etc etc.... same with facebook which was at a p/e of 100 when it listed, but based on its current earnings, and original listing price that comes down substantially. So those who took a bet on it around many years ago were correct in seeing facebook being able to monetise..... First mining main thing going for it is gold prices going higher, but there are other companies which will rise should that happen to, which are relatively cheaper.
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@BrianBitcoinBull @FundamentalAnalysis with regards to $FF and a short attack it won't happen on a US OTC stock in my personal opinion. I disagree with you on Amazon. I will admit Facebook found some profitability when things like Twitter could not even given their massive user base. I never mentioned either of those. You did not address Tesla if you wish to go that route. Best of luck if PMs go higher $FF is going way way higher. The Peter Schiff crowd will bid it up to crazy highs. Sorry for you if you married to a paradigm! I plan on making money!!!
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@FundamentalAnalysis @BrianBitcoinBull I know fully well how markets work, and I'm aware of momentum/sentiment. Tesla is priced highly due to EV sentiment and also because the market expects it become profitable eventually, Reality whether its positive or negative will eventually hit tesla. The market participants have bought into a story and believe in it, and they will continue believing in it until the facts are revealed which could still be many years away. Amazon has been priced highly for over a decade because the market has kept thinking it will grow and profits will grow, a decade later after continuously growing sales it is also now profitable, and the market now believes Amazon will be a lot more profitable then it is currently hence the valuation being so high. Going back a decade, people believed in the Amazon story that it would be a huge thing, and they have now been proven to be correct, but now they are looking many year ahead thinking it will play an even more important role in the world...and thus boosting sales and profits further ....time will tell.. My point is fundamentals always play out eventually, that never goes away and that's what happened with twitter, and believe me fundamentals will play out with every single other share. Sentiment lasts only so long, fundamentals have to eventually drive that sentiment along otherwise sentiment reverts to fundamentals.. If gold prices go higher, have I ever said I expect first mining $FF to collapse unless its targeted by a short seller? If gold sentiment is good, all the gold companies for the most part will start rising, especially those promoted well. BUT I'd prefer having a fundamentally strong company, then just any gold company so at least the sentiment moves are sustainable without a RISK of collapsing. If you are smart enough to judge where companies will be many many years ahead and you are able to forsee a positive outcome (fundamentally), then play the sentiment game, personally I'm not and have made enough money without going down that route, so i'll stick to what I perceive as my safer methods.
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from @fundamentalanalysis,
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@FundamentalAnalysis @BrianBitcoinBull I know fully well how markets work, and I'm aware of momentum/sentiment. Tesla is priced highly due to EV sentiment and also because the market expects it become profitable eventually, Reality whether its positive or negative will eventually hit tesla. The market participants have bought into a story and believe in it, and they will continue believing in it until the facts are revealed which could still be many years away. Amazon has been priced highly for over a decade because the market has kept thinking it will grow and profits will grow, a decade later after continuously growing sales it is also now profitable, and the market now believes Amazon will be a lot more profitable then it is currently hence the valuation being so high. Going back a decade, people believed in the Amazon story that it would be a huge thing, and they have now been proven to be correct, but now they are looking many year ahead thinking it will play an even more important role in the world...and thus boosting sales and profits further ....time will tell.. My point is fundamentals always play out eventually, that never goes away and that's what happened with twitter, and believe me fundamentals will play out with every single other share. Sentiment lasts only so long, fundamentals have to eventually drive that sentiment along otherwise sentiment reverts to fundamentals.. If gold prices go higher, have I ever said I expect first mining $FF to collapse unless its targeted by a short seller? If gold sentiment is good, all the gold companies for the most part will start rising, especially those promoted well. BUT I'd prefer having a fundamentally strong company, then just any gold company so at least the sentiment moves are sustainable without a RISK of collapsing. If you are smart enough to judge where companies will be many many years ahead and you are able to forsee a positive outcome (fundamentally), then play the sentiment game, personally I'm not and have made enough money without going down that route, so i'll stick to what I perceive as my safer methods.
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from @fundamentalanalysis,
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@FundamentalAnalysis @BrianBitcoinBull I know fully well how markets work, and I'm aware of momentum/sentiment. Tesla is priced highly due to EV sentiment and also because the market expects it become profitable eventually, Reality whether its positive or negative will eventually hit tesla. The market participants have bought into a story and believe in it, and they will continue believing in it until the facts are revealed which could still be many years away. Amazon has been priced highly for over a decade because the market has kept thinking it will grow and profits will grow, a decade later after continuously growing sales it is also now profitable, and the market now believes Amazon will be a lot more profitable then it is currently hence the valuation being so high. Going back a decade, people believed in the Amazon story that it would be a huge thing, and they have now been proven to be correct, but now they are looking many year ahead thinking it will play an even more important role in the world...and thus boosting sales and profits further ....time will tell.. My point is fundamentals always play out eventually, that never goes away and that's what happened with twitter, and believe me fundamentals will play out with every single other share. Sentiment lasts only so long, fundamentals have to eventually drive that sentiment along otherwise sentiment reverts to fundamentals.. If gold prices go higher, have I ever said I expect first mining $FF to collapse unless its targeted by a short seller? If gold sentiment is good, all the gold companies for the most part will start rising, especially those promoted well. BUT I'd prefer having a fundamentally strong company, then just any gold company so at least the sentiment moves are sustainable without a RISK of collapsing. If you are smart enough to judge where companies will be many many years ahead and you are able to forsee a positive outcome (fundamentally), then play the sentiment game, personally I'm not and have made enough money without going down that route, so i'll stick to what I perceive as my safer methods.
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@DrunkenSpeculator "Fundamentals don't matter..." is probably a phrase to be wary of
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@BrianBitcoinBull In the short term fundamentals don't mean anything. I remember the GO G0 90s being a kid in the SF Bay Area. Every tech pc of shit went to crazy highs. Right now every pc of Shit gold or uranium company is getting financing. It is true you must short through the junk to find the treasure.But with regards to trading its 100% right. Especially if you look at general equities.
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@FundamentalAnalysis Agree @BrianBitcoinBull, fundamentals in the short term especially with these juniors appear to be irrelevant.
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@TheHolyBuyBull Ignoring fundamentals is like bluffing with a bad poker hand. It can work but..
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anonymous Can someone explain to me how a project that was acquired for 3-4$/oz or 5 or 10 or whatever suddenly becomes worth 30$/oz just because it is under the FF umbrella? Is Kieths name worth 25$/oz? I think that's the point alot of people here are making is that there is some inherent value in the garbage projects and then as of right now 80% of the market cap is Kieths name
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anonymous I'm still trying to figure this one out however , he is a investment banker, I am a retail guy he created a "liquid" gold speculation investment vehicle is what I would call it momentum can take garbage a long way so I'm not long because I see better value but I wouldn't short this either
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