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@MiningBookGuyOK, there are actually 2 #gold books recommended here. But as you read, you’ll see I clearly like one the best (if you only want 1). I would highly recommend both as they go well together.
1.“The New World of Gold” by Timothy Green - http://www.amazon.com/New-World-Gold-Politics-Investors/dp/0802706924/ref=sr_1_2_twi_har_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445876603&sr=1-2&keywords=%22the+new+world+of+gold%22
1981-1984 (NOTE - I only own the 1981 copy. Not sure about any changes for later editions)
There are currently multiple copies for ~$4 on Amazon , excellent value.
2.“The Prospect for Gold” by Timothy Green - http://www.amazon.com/Prospect-Gold-View-Year-2000/dp/0802710026/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445876746&sr=1-3&keywords=%22the+prospect+for+gold%22
There are a few copies on Amazon for ~$5, a great value. But you can find even more for a bit cheaper using #BookFinder .
Please be aware that there are A LOT of #gold books by #TimothyGreen (he’s an amazing, underrated and prolific writer). It can get confusing. While I recommend these two above others, there is significant overlap between “The New World of Gold" with the earlier “The World of Gold” book by the same author. I find all his books are fun to read.
But, there are a few reasons I recommend “The New World of Gold” as "THE ONE", the #1 copy you should buy, if you only want one, excellent book on #gold :
-Much less focus on #SouthAfrica for #goldmining, though it was still dominant in the early 1980s. This book is great for showing the early transition from the huge, historic South African mines to the upstarts in other countries. I especially liked the contrast of the #SouthAfrica, #Canada, and #Brazil mining chapters.
-The contrast between the physical and paper gold markets (and general history) is incredibly valuable. The late 70s/early 80s was a turning point from which things haven’t really changed. The original “The World of Gold” book in the late 1960s focused on the physical gold market for smuggling, centered in Beirut. For the paper market, the center became the COMEX in NYC by the early 80s. But there’s some fascinating chapters on #HongKong and #Singapore, where Hong Kong was a unique speculative market like the COMEX for Asians, while Singapore was more about distributing physical gold, especially to Indonesia. (though there’s physical and paper markets in all of these places)
Many valuable details on the contrast of physical/paper gold, and gold as a speculative vs insurance vehicle. This might be the #1 reason to recommend this book over all of #TimothyGreen ’s other ones, if you only want one.
-Oh, and super valuable details on how the run-up in the gold price in 1979/1980 is directly related to the newly rich families in the #MiddleEast turning oil money into gold gambling.
"The Prospect for Gold” is well worth a look for the following reasons:
-I consider it my best book for global #goldmining in the 1980s. There is much more of a focus on that decade, as well as looking towards the future rather than the past. More information on goldmining in #USA and #Canada , some good info on #heapleaching . Some good details on #Hemlo , and I was especially interested in the #Lupin mine owned by #EchoBay at the time, when it was the world’s most northerly gold mine, where #Nunavut is today. Also good stuff on gold in #Australia , and early look at #China , with even a mention of Robert #Friedland going there with #GalacticResources. And more on other parts of the world.
-Chapter 13 in this book titled “Investors: Portfolio Manager Versus Souk” is really valuable. Fascinating look at how physical gold flows through #Dubai , #Singapore , and #HongKong , and how this interacts with the speculative paper price set in places like the COMEX in NYC. There is actual data on this, and I think it’s important to always keep this in mind, even though it sometimes feels like the paper market completely dominates the physical market.
-In addition, there’s a load of valuable data, quite nicely presented in #TheProspectforGold
If you want to know more about the history of how physical and paper gold interact, you must buy BOTH of these books. The books complement each other for information on places like the #MiddleEast and #India . I am one of those people that thinks the physical market is making a strong comeback. These books provide great insight for how the physical gold market dominance transitioned towards paper gold dominance in #the1970s and #the1980s (if you think of them as being in a dance towards setting the price). Perhaps we are heading back towards the importance of the physical market...
Lastly, some fantastic quotes directly from my 1981 copy of #TheNewWorldofGold :
“Stalin preferred to husband his gold reserves as the ultimate war chest. And he took any opportunity to top it up. He secured a handsome bonus, for example, in 1937 when he accepted the bulk of Spain’s gold reserves as security for payment for arms and aircraft during the Spanish Civil War. At least 500 tons of gold, then worth $560 million, were secretly shipped from Madrid to Moscow. At a banquet in the Kremlin to celebrate the arrival, Stalin reported to have said “The Spaniards will never see their gold again.” They never have.”
“The fading of Dawson City reflected the overall decline of gold mining in Canada for thirty years after the end of the World War II. Once gold was the backbone of the Canadian mining industry. But, from a proud peak year in 1941 when 146 gold mines wrested 172 tons from the ground to help Canada pay for urgently needed war supplies, production slowly diminished until, by 1978, only fourteen mines remained yielding scarcely 50 tons. True, Canada held onto third place in the world production league table but, with output only seven percent of South Africa’s, she was hardly a formidable challenger. Interest in gold was so slight that one mining executive ventured, “I reckon you could have bought the entire Canadian gold-mining industry for $15 million in the early 1970s."
And one valuable quote directly from my 1987 copy of #TheProspectforGold:
“ 'The profitability of gold mining over the past five years has been a major factor in persuading mining companies to increase their exposure to the metal,’ observed Jim Fisher of Brook Hunt & Associates, the London mining consultants. ‘For each year since 1979, over ninety per cent of gold production in the Western world has shown an operating profit. No other metal has come anywhere near this record in recent years.’ While prices of such base metals as #copper and #zinc are down in real terms by two-thirds since 1970, the gold price, in real terms, has more than tripled.
The consequent shift in the energies of mining companies is understandable, but quite remarkable in scale. Prior to 1968, while the gold price was fixed at $35, exploration for new gold deposits outside South Africa was negligible. Even in 1975, after the price had first risen close to $200 an ounce, gold commanded barely ten per cent of exploration budgets. Today it is often eighty per cent or more. In #Australia alone, exploration expenditure soared from A$30 million in 1980 to over A$200 million in 1986. Overall, close to US$1 billion is now being invested annually in the search for gold, triple the amount in 1980."
There are many more factual nuggets like these in #TimothyGreen ’s books that I haven’t found anywhere else. I emphasize that #TheNewWorldofGold is my #1 book on #gold (many great parts of the book I haven’t commented on). I own and read a lot of books on #gold . #TheProspectforGold is a close 2nd. An excellent read on its own. But I think these 2 books go quite well together. They are really fun to read.
If you like these, I would then recommend looking into all of #TimothyGreen ’s other books, written before and after these 2 two (like the original #TheWorldofGold )
@MiningBookGuy1st Game recommendation:
#Acquire - http://www.amazon.com/Wizards-of-the-Coast-221920000AVHWOC/dp/0786950072
-one of my all-time favorite boardgames. better than Monopoly, a TRUE business game. best way to learn about #cashflow . Get your hands-on #MBA through a #boardgame, seriously.
-easy to play, but really deep game. Looks a bit like Scrabble. Each square represents a “hotel”. You’re making hotel chains, buying stock in them, constantly growing and merging them.
-the genius of the game is that you can ONLY cash out when your “junior” hotel chain is acquired by a bigger one, and you have the option to get cash or convert shares. Early in the game, you’re desperate for cash. Late in the game, you want to hold as much stock as you can in the big ones.
-Yes, it actually feels like the Venture Exchange! I think playing this over the years can hone trading/valuation skills. The game is VERY punishing if you make early mistakes. I remember running out of cash the first time I played, and my turn kept getting skipped—it sucked. Then you REALLY understand the value of cash the next time you play!
-Great balance of luck/skill. Similar elements to Texas Hold ‘Em. Very very hard to win every time (especially with 5 or 6 people). But takes skill to consistently be near the top. Every game feels different. Importantly, even losing players can have huge influence on the game, and it’s often very hard to tell who will win until the end.
-Fun Fact: First created in the 1960s by #SidSackson , it never really took off. But this is the “grandfather” game for German boardgames that exploded in popularity starting in the 1990s. I think Sid Sackson is kind of a legend to boardgame people in #Germany (I've heard that the popular #SettlersOfCatan is a descendant of #Acquire). He was originally from the Bronx, but very few know him in North America.
-The new version is cheap and feels cheap. It works fine, but some older versions are really nice if you can get your hands on them.
-I’ll be impressed if anyone has played this. Happy to discuss with anyone. I strongly recommend you try this out with your kids.
-I started thinking about this when @WorldofMining was talking about his kids’ interests :) Wish I played this for the first time when I was 10 or 12. But still great for adults.
@MiningBookGuyrelated to a previous post by @Aurelio - he found some good German newsletter info on $SWA and other companies. Of course, we can all use google translate. But he's helped me find #Germany#newsletters stuff that I wouldn't have found on my own. So public #thankyou for that. He can probably help other non-German speakers too :)
@MiningBookGuyActually, I don't even know if people really think about it. But #Germany, #France, & #Italy are far more important to the #EU than #Britain. It's just a simple truth...this goes back to the 50s & 60s, and things never evolved to #Britain being at the center of the EU. But somehow, people like Armstrong make it seem like that's the case #brexit
@MiningBookGuy@teevee - here's a last set of links from an EXCELLENT 2012 presentation by Pierre #Lassonde (unfortunately, the video clip of the presentation no longer works):
1. full Powerpoint Sept 2012 - http://cdn.ceo.ca/1brglsu-2012_Lassonde.pdf
2. page 12 - Central Banks are Buyers (crucial to my argument) - http://cdn.ceo.ca/1brglv5-CentralBankBuyers.png+
3. page 13 - More Big Buying Coming soon (also crucial to my argument) - http://cdn.ceo.ca/1brgm0e-CountriesGold.png+
Please pay special attention to those last 2 links. I 100% believe #PhysicalGold buying and the gold price itself will be most influenced over the next few years by accelerated buying from #CentralBanks. #China is understood by many...but what about #Japan and #SouthKorea? I mentioned this in a previous post. This is some food for thought for people who weren't aware of these slides. I hope Pierre does a similar, updated presentation soon.
And as a very quick historical reference, keep in mind #PhysicalGold has always been a player in the background (I need to run can discuss any of this in further detail another time):
- #France sent warships under De Gaulle to try to get even more #PhysicalGold from NYC...and then Nixon broke the link to #USD
- The #SovietUnion sold A LOT of #PhysicalGold going into the peak in 1980...it was an important influence on the price going into #the1980s, even though the #PaperGold market was taking over anyway
- I do believe there was a link to #Gadaffi getting overthrown in #Libya, and his #gold hoard and attempts to create an African gold-backed currency. Yes, this is still more of a conspiracy theory...but pay attention if this idea becomes more mainstream.
- Absolutely, countries like #Germany#Austria#Netherlands want their #PhysicalGold closer to home, NOT held by #USA if the financial system starts breaking down. We've seen stuff on this since 2013, but many are still not paying attention
@Markedtofuture#Germany About to Raise Property Taxes Significantly - The greatest problem with real estate is you cannot pick up and leave. The Federal Council in Germany is planning to re-evaluate the approximately 35 million homes in Germany. It is now expected that the result is likely to be a significant increase in the property tax. Administrative expenses for the state fund-raising action is very significant and more than 50% of municipalities were in financial trouble BEFORE the refugee crisis.
This is the final stage of property before capital begins to shift to equities. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/germany-about-to-raise-property-taxes-significantly/
@Oliver* #Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) -6.2% premarket after #Germany's Angela Merkel ruled out any state assistance for the lender, according to a report from Focus Magazine.
* Merkel also declined to intervene in Deutsche's legal battle with the U.S. Justice Department, which earlier this month announced it may seek up to $14B from the bank to resolve investigations into crisis-era mortgage securities.
@newstracker#Germany – Positive factory orders beat market estimates reflecting the strengthening growth momentum in the manufacturing sector as suggested by solid PMI readings.
- A stronger than forecast rebound in orders has been driven by domestic demand.
- Factory Orders (%mom): 1.0 in Aug v 0.3 in Jul and 0.3 forecast.
Source: SP Angel – Morning View – Thursday 06 10 16
@newstracker#Germany – In line with positive reports on the state of the manufacturing sector, Germany reported an increase in industrial production through Aug.
- Industrial production: 2.5%mom v -1.5%mom in Jul and 1.0%mom forecast.
#France – Industrial production jumped in Aug following three months of declines.
- Industrial production: 2.1%mom v -0.5%mom in Jul and 0.6%mom forecast.
#Spain – Joining Germany and France, Spain posted a sharp increase in industrial production through Aug with growth primarily driven by production of capital intensive goods.
- Industrial production: 1.4%mom v 0.1%mom in Jul and -0.1% forecast.
While a pick up in industrial production is welcome, total contribution to growth in Q3 is expected to come in at 0.3pp, up from -0.1pp in Jul, but delow 1.3ppp recorded in Aug last year, Bloomberg estimates.
SP Angel – Morning View – Friday 07 10 16
@MiningBookGuy@Daniel - to add one more thought: No matter how 'negative' people are on the EU situation, #Europe is BACKED by gold. I will never forget that #Germany, #France, #Italy have massive amounts of #gold in their #centralbanks. #USA has it too...so this is meaningful if things get really bad. Not saying this helps you answer your question...but keep in mind #Canada only has #gold in the ground...not much at all left in central bank.
Anyway, very tough question to answer in this environment, would be interested to hear from others!
@newstracker#Germany – Positive business survey results released by the IFO Institute with industry expectations hitting the highest
level in more than two years.
- The report follows on the heels of optimistic manufacturing numbers showing the sector expanded at the fastest
pace in nearly three years in Oct led by stronger foreign demand.
- This points to an improved growth outlook for Q4/16 following an expected slow-down in Q3/16 (0.3%qoq on
Bloomberg estimates; official numbers are out on 15 Nov).
- Previously, the Bundesbank dismissed slower growth in Q3 as temporary suggesting the growth trend remains
strong. IFO Current Assessment: 115.0 v 114.7 in Sep and 109.6 forecast.
Source: SP Angel – Morning View – Tuesday 25 10 16
@Leon"Washington's declaration of economic warfare against two of its most strategic powerful allies, #Germany and #SaudiArabia and three rising competitor world powers, has eroded US economic competitiveness, underminded its access to lucrative markets and increased its reliance on aggressive military startegies over diplomacy. What is striking and perplexing about Washington's style of economic warfare is how costly this has been for the US economy and US allies, with so little concrete benefit." $DB$AAPL#gas#oil#politicshttp://petras.lahaine.org/?p=2107
@newstracker#Germany – Positive employment numbers bode well for estimated strengthening growth forecasts in H2/16.
- Unemployment change (‘000): -13 in Oct v 0 in Sep and -1 forecast.
- Jobless rate (%): 6.0, a fresh record low, in Oct v 6.1 in Sep and 6.1 forecast.
SP Angel – Morning View – Wednesday 02 11 16
@MiningBookGuyWelcome @em-cee! Great to hear you're taking a "first look" (this is the right time to do it!). Haha, this site is absolutely an "every day visit" for me as well :P
There are plenty of German-speaking people around. Two that occasionally contribute at #mbgtrends are @Daniel from #Austria and @Markus from #Germany. Oh, and @Aurelio (but I haven't seen him for a while now). There are others too! They might post here to say 'hi' because I tagged them.
But if you ever want to reach out to people privately, just click their name, and click "private message" at the top left. If you need further help with that, just let me know! (this is a general tip in case others are lurking here)
@MiningBookGuy@Nick - yeah, i should point out overall quality of #Bloomberg articles is way down over the past couple years. That article had 'Bitcoin' in the header, article had next-to-nothing related to it. They are optimizing articles more as click-bait than content.
I am curious what Europeans think as well. From my own experience, I will say #France is quite backwards when it comes to money. So many old people still using checks at the register (ok, they do that in the US too, but France is the king of writing checks for EVERYTHING). I would have assumed #Netherlands, #Germany, #Austria were similar, but from these graphics, #Netherlands seems to have their own thing going.
Oh! Just as I am finishing this post, I realized there is a link to the study here: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb16q4a1.pdf
Very technical, won't look in detail now, but that should have answers as to how the survey data was collected. #cash#Europe#mbgtrends
@NewtonGreat talk by #GregorMacdonald from http://www.terrajoule.us/ on #naturalgas for #realvision recently. He comes on quarterly and does great deep dive on particular topic. Prior one was "cost declines in #solar". Absolutely stunning analysis of engineering progress and economic implications. Recent one was on #bullish case for #gas here now, but long-term switch into a "dependency market" for gas, rather than a "growth market". Reason being displacement of gas by solar power (marginal unit electricity demand will be served by solar). Points to coal as example of dependency market today -- still widely used, but limited growth. Big implications for price action. Dependency markets can see prices spike to bring forward production, but not really bull market trends like seen with growing use of commodity. All in all, super interesting contrast of wildly bullish setup for gas next couple years and bearish case starting 3 years out. Some big calls and big ideas behind his work there. Gregor has a #newsletter, BTW. He mentioned that next talk on #realvisiontv may be about solar, again. I certainly want to hear more about negative prices for electricity seen in #Germany and #California!
@Leon"Salafism is growing fast in #Germany, flourishing on grants and other forms of support from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations." Sigmar Gabriel, leader of the Socialist Party told the weekly magazine Der Spiegel: "If we are serious about the fight against Islamism and terrorism, then it must also be a cultural fight." So why embracing Islam in the first place as an affiliation to Germany through an open border policy and than starting a cultural fight? What's going on here? cui bono? Why the distraction from the social welfare / pension crisis, NIRP, indebtedness, climbing poverty rates, automatisation of the industry, job developments etc. through a self-inflicted migrant crisis including terror attacks? #politics#EUcollapse#bondcrash#gold
@nlepanRalph Dommermuth, a German entrepreneur who has led the country’s largest corporate attempt to bring migrants into the jobs market, says companies can help themselves in the eyes of society if they play a bigger part in integration. Mr Dommermuth, the billionaire founder and chief executive of United Internet, Germany’s largest internet service provider, came up with the idea of a platform for corporate Germany to pool resources and help to integrate migrants in 2015. https://www.ft.com/content/4264220e-c78d-11e6-9043-7e34c07b46ef#Germany
@ExcelsiorLess #nuclear energy has meant higher costs, less clean energy overall and more deaths
February 25, 2017
Michael Shellenberger explains how less nuclear energy has meant higher costs and less clean energy overall.
* #USA has shutdown Enuclear plants prematurely because of lower #naturalgas costs
* this has increased emissions of CO2 and air pollution
* Overall energy costs have increased in the #USA which correlate with lower #nuclear energy mix
* #Germany has 6 times more carbon intensive energy than France
* Germany shutdown nuclear energy and now is even more reliant on coal and fossil fuel
* #France uses 80% nuclear power for electricity
* #France has half the cost of electricity compared to #Germany
* the global decline in #nuclear power (-7.5% of energy mix) has not been replaced by solar and wind (4.5%)
* the global decline in #nuclear (most of #Japan nuclear shutdown, #Germany shutdown, some early shutdowns in #USA and #Europe) has not been made up by the build in China and Asia and appears like future Europe and USA shutdowns (150 GW) will made up by new nuclear in #China and #India and #Asia through 2030.”
@MiningBookGuyanon - we'll see...i 'hope' for 'world peace'...but 'hope' is just as dangerous in the real world as it is in the junior sector!
i fully expect various countries to get 'sized up' for various strengths/weaknesses soon. some countries that are considered weak (like #Japan and #France) could be far stronger than expected, primarily because of organized military. #China is the main target for 'overrated'...but #Germany might fit there too. #demographics are important, but who cares when the 'crisis' is right on the doorstep? what we care about then is who is 'weak' because of lack of 'strategic resources', dependency on global trade, 'strength of military', etc.
and i'm just repeating some stuff i've read and processed recently. i don't want to go into more detail right now, but wanted to 'change-up' the #index contributions a bit for fun. can pick up the conversation another time! #geopolitics
@MiningBookGuy@Goldfinger - ok, i'll be checking intermittently the rest of the day to continue to the interesting #Japan / #GroundZeroCrisis discussion.
If we're honing in on #demographics, #Russia is easily most 'at risk'. Yes, #Russia and #Japan are the extreme outliers in terms of important economies with poor #demographics. So I can briefly go through some of my opinion on each:
#Japan - #demographics and #CentralBanks intervention are both serious issues. I don't really think their intertwined. I really think pretty much everything else in #Japan 'works', and arguably #Japan is more prepared to deal with #crisis from a cultural standpoint than any other country in the world. I don't think their own demographic issue is 'urgent'...
#Russia - the real blow was the steep fall in #oil prices starting in 2014. This already 3 years of a BRUTAL recession/depression in #Russia, that is surprisingly not discussed in the mainstream. Seems the #Russia propaganda machine is working.
The thing is, #Russia can be 'ground zero' of the crisis in multiple ways.
One is the potential (ongoing?) #hacking around the world, and general #FinancialTerrorism ability. I hat-tip #JimRickards for this (I think it's documented in multiple books of his), and it's a different form of a crisis that comes out of #Russia.
But more importantly, the combination of #Russia#oil / #geopolitics / #politics / #demographics issues are MUCH more intertwined (basically unique) in the world. They NEED to do something FAST. This is well documented by some #geopolitics analysts, and still mostly missing from mainstream discussion. This leads right into #Europe ...who gets voted into countries like #France (done) / #Germany (coming in october) is part of this story... (1/2)