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@PamplonaTrader Just a little over a week before updated resource. #JustNexgenAndChill
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@BruceWayne I'm sure they posted their search ellipse in their previous tech report too, I imagine it hasn't change much so I'd use that for generating the block model
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@nutter wow under the 4 dollar mark now
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@nutter is anyone seeing this ?
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@EvenPrime Sup? I don't have l2
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@nutter should we be worried ?
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@PamplonaTrader @murat should really be banning IPs, not usernames. Looks like @lenihan has 9 lives.
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@EvenPrime @murat did a really nice job with this l2 visual. God damn.
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@PamplonaTrader Bids starting to come in. Good place to buy. http://imgur.com/S0HnPwD+
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@Pete Winding up the coil
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@nutter what do use to make charts like that @pamplonaTrader ?
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@EvenPrime Lol oh God here we go... 3 2 1 @PamplonaTrader attack!
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@NicholasLiberty get in while you can!!
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@EvenPrime TY @richardhuang
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@PamplonaTrader A week ago an anonymous poster wrote this: "Look at $IVN - $3.7bn market cap and they own 40% of Kamoa-Kak and 2 other assets that I would argue are getting little value. That equates to nearly a $10bn value for Kamoa-Kak on 100% basis...Arrow more strategic asset in that it will likely produce 25% of mined supply in a commodity. Anyone that thinks $NXE is topping should get their head checked." https://ceo.ca/nxe?f8ef9ce375c3 Given that annual mining output is over 160Mlbs, he/she is suggesting Arrow will be producing over 40Mlbs a year. I don't know who this anonymous poster is, but if he/she is correct the PFS at the end of the year will need to show over 350Mlbs indicated to come close to supporting that kind of a production rate (40Mlbs per year / min 8 years of mine life). Here @bernardshaw shares his calculation of the resource to date, wherein he estimates 360Mlbs indicated and 600Mlbs total: http://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1c9rq7o-A2HG%20assessment%20Feb17.pdf Another PTCharts member @cole119, who has a very good handle on the situation, has been suggesting a takeout price closer to $10/sh. The math only works if @anonymous and @bernardshaw is right. Connect the dots how you will... in my mind, I think there is a good chance the updated RE will surprise to the upside and far exceed my modest estimate of 400Mlbs. Maiden Resource grade shell (201Mlbs) vs current grade shell: http://imgur.com/ikzXaZM+
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@wolff I bet on @PamplonaTrader's track record and the analysis of @anonymous and @bernardshaw - very little downside from here and probable $5 - $6 trading range post RE2 . I didn't make as much as those who came early to the party - but I do my own dd on great leads and info on this Board - The stockpicking contest safety 2 bagger is one of the best pre-screening tools I have ever seen for juniors - we should start up our own CEO mutual fund
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@PamplonaTrader I'm also hoping for a spinco soon. $NXE is getting no value for regional targets... yet $PTU's Hook Lake being valued at ~$150m. What would a spinco holding Bow/Cannon/Harpoon be worth? I would guess at least a 30% premium. ...Where are those Harpoon assays? Discovery hole at Harpoon was material enough to halt trading...
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@cole119 March/April is going to be one whammy after another for $NXE news. Patience Pamps ;) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6UHOT8HfEA+
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@BruceWayne I've got a feeling (and I might just be a nervous Nelly), that there might be a buying opportunity on the day RE2 is released. I believe Casey is right and the overall lbs number might not be as large as other have predicted, as much drilling was focused on indicated. However, that number is much much more important than more inferred lbs, but there might be some panic from buyers who are just playing the resource estimate. The real story here is the indicated lbs and the raw economics of arrow, which is in a class of its own.
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@BruceWayne I also wouldn't be surprised to see some shady brokerage firms or even majors trying to hit people's stops to try and free up shares, knowing that it will be a very volatile session
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@BruceWayne Might sound silly to some but I could care less what the overall lbs of RE2 are. Does not change the fact that this is tier 1 strategic deposit. How many more lbs will be added over the course of winter drilling? In my head the lbs from previous drilling are (or should) already priced in
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@Pete @BruceWayne keep in mind that the analysts are all well below 350Mil pounds in their predictions. However I do agree it will be, and already is, a volatile market. Don't confuse the knowledgeable members here with the 99% rest of the players in the field. They were well ahead of the curve each f*ing time
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@BruceWayne Agreed, was not directed to at any prominent posters here.
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@BruceWayne Might have got the name wrong but referring to @ocotilloredux posts from yesterday about total lbs being just under 400MM lbs
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@BruceWayne I think TD analyst is at 400MM
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@BruceWayne I just see lots of posts at 500+ and hope that isn't the market consensus because I feel that is unreasonabley optimistic. We'll get there fore sure, no doubt in my mind, but so much of last drilling was infill and regional exploration
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@BruceWayne I'm much more excited about the pre-feas (skip the PEA? Why not, we all know it's economic). Those numbers are going to be redonkulous
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@BruceWayne Got my Doug's mixed up, that's Beattie not Casey
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@PamplonaTrader @BruceWayne does this look like less than double the MRE? http://imgur.com/ikzXaZM+
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@pinnsvin @PamplonaTrader I've been thinking along the lines of @BruceWayne as well. I've been a bit nervous about the rapidly increasing valuation and hoping that we're not getting too far ahead of ourselves. But that image comparison makes me feel a whole lot better(!) In any case, we'll find out soon enough.
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@BruceWayne @pamplonatrader are those the two modelled solids used for the RE? If so it might be, but I'm not going to make a guess on a resource based on one image of solids
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@pinnsvin @BruceWayne The models might be solid but the volume doesn't take into account uranium concentration. Part of the reason I want to make my own model.
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@pinnsvin At least I'd have some kind of reasonable analogue.
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@EvenPrime I calculated the new model is 7.24x larger using a (very) conservative 3rd dimension estimation. If the entire area added was 0.25% grade that equated to just over 50Mlbs if I recall. Just saying.
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@PamplonaTrader NXE green close = good
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@PamplonaTrader Rest of the sector was looking weak
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@speculator @PamplonaTrader " does this look less that a double ? " LMAO !thats a great image
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@MadeOfRubber @speculator @PamplonaTrader the one on the right should be printed on canvas and gifted to all the longs, good wall art for the man cave.
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anonymous Uranium futures 24.75$ fifth day down since hitting 26.15$/lbs :(
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@Treb Anon we're still a far cry from $18. This post by @Excelsior in the #uranium channel might assauge some fears: https://ceo.ca/popular?107dbff730c8
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@trex In response to @PamplonaTrader posting the grade shells and @EvenPrime estimating the model to be 7.24x larger, I actually did a little exercise a couple weeks ago with the grade shells. I measured each shear zone in both plan and cross section view and came up with how much each shear zone increased in either plane. I then multiplied these sections together to create a multiplier for each shear zone. Of course there are many assumptions that need to be made, but still an interesting exercise (for me at least). See the attached PDF for my summary and some more of my thoughts... hopefully it makes sense. http://cdn.ceo.ca/1capqm9-NXE%20resource-est%20w_gradeshells.pdf
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@BruceWayne That's some solid work @trex, final value seems reasonable as well.
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@EpsteinResearch great job @trex
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@Stealinator @just_Intrigued just an idea, if have not looked yet, go hang out in #NXE or #EFR channel and do some reading. I have spent hours there.
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@trex Thanks! @BruceWayne and @EpsteinResearch
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@ylr $NXE On the hourly. Nice setup for tomorrow. Broke out of a 9% symmetrical triangle, 10/20 sma golden cross, STO BUY, MACD cross, RSI over 50 #ylr #uranium http://cdn.ceo.ca/1caq0d1-NXE.png+
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@Searunner 4 drills have been turning for almost a full month and 3 more coming up on four weeks. I wonder if they'll just have one monster news release for pdac or just before. Oh this waiting is wearing on me...
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@bernardshaw @trex, I read your post regarding grade shell increases with interest because I did a similar exercise posted 5 January. I shouldn't highlight errors in your calcs because mine is infected with some unsubstantiated assumptions. Still, I believe it is a worthwhile exercise. I humbly point out that you have assumed the grade shells are rectangular prisms (multiplied area by area) while they are in fact triangular pyramids (multiply 1/3 area by height) (note the typo error prism instead of pyramid in my post if you do in fact read it). We have both assumed the shells are solid, thereby ignoring blanks in the ore grade intersections although this may be partly justified as we did it to both sets. Now the strange thing is we came up with similar numbers give or take a bit of poetic licence; you also chopped yours back for no reason while I forged on, damn the consequences. I have approached this from all angles and have done a lot of homework albeit limited by NXE's generous but limited public data. At the end of the day as we approach the reality of RE2, I issue the following warnings; (1) I am trained to look for upside, that's how I was called upon by my employer. (2) Arrow is a rare jewel, I've not seen the likes of it in a long time so I listen to my rattly old bones and pay it a bit of respect with well deserved exaggeration. (3) My estimates will be close if A2HG is all listed as Indicated resource which should be estimated by maths less harsh than IDW3. The grade won't change by much but the number of tonnes of HG should. (4) for all my attempts to put Arrow in context, I have been unable to establish true widths mainly because I don't have downhole survey data. My plots had four reliable limiters, viz., collar, end of hole projected to the surface, approximate pierce point and intersection angle at the pierce point. It wasn't enough.
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