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CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
@FundamentalAnalysis@Jayfire Absolutely, even though I've got enough of $SSP I wouldn't mind a smashdown in that. I've also like $MAX in the past but sold after the 2016 run up...capex is a small issue, but size/jurisdiction trumps it.
@FundamentalAnalysis@jmm it absolutely could fall further, but It's in a situation of either it goes bankrupt/and or destroys equity holders or it survives and turns itself around. A plan is in place, two things need to ideally happen gold price stays or increases from current levels, and most importantly the company needs to fix its own operations which is do-able its just a question of whether it can be executed. I would assign a bearish 50% failure, 50% success scenario. Now if successful the company will multibag from todays prices given its priced like its on the brink of failure. This is becoming like a spring the closer and closer it gets to zero, the more violent the upswing if it succeeds (This is typical of optionality type companies look at $SSP). So I would argue with 50:50 chance...the lower it goes the less riskier it becomes all things being equal. Another trigger for the company possibly failing is gold prices going back to $1100 or below and hovering there for the rest of the year, but if that happened the entire sector will be hit anyway.
wannabeinvestorWhat gives? $SSP up 9% while other goldies bleeding red.
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@Stealinatormy thoughts also. For an optionality play, not exactly following the pog. Maybe got a pump for a nlw.
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@JayfireI'll take any wins I can get right now lol
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@FundamentalAnalysis@stealinator I'm sure it'll get a smash down, I've got myself prepared for Sandspring at 0.30-0.40 unless they discover a higher grade zone that can be bought in. I think interest rate increases could be more aggressive this year. My inclination is that the fed are accelerating their plans and part of it feels political. They are talking about reducing balance sheet, that was an unheard of conversation under Obama so why now.... A recession under trump would be perfect from their perspective to ensure normalcy in the next election..... #mbgtrends#newbies. I think we could get more then 1 rate hike this year, my personal prediction..........
@lukejacksonTalking to a friend who deals with major institutional players the other day - the usual funds they tap for capital are fully invested right now. It's going to take a recycling of capital to occur by takeouts etc for a more sustainable move to happen. We may be at that point very soon. Watching $CNL, $SBB, $XRC, $SSP closely right now. In that order I think they get taken out. Projects with scale that move the needle for majors and have measurably de risked their projects one way or another over the past year. It's time. Garofolo has said so himself.
@FundamentalAnalysis@Goldfinger I like $SSP as well, but not sure of takeout potential at this stage. $SBB is my favourite especially once permitting issues are resolved. Its practically a no brainer at that point.
@PierreIt said the 12 projects are part of an initiative to map the entire country’s mineral deposits by 2020 and that the David Granger administration has set aside two billion dollars (One Guyana dollar =US$0.004 cents) for the venture.
CGMC geologist, Lawrence Simon, said that while the information gathered will allow the GGMC to update its geological maps, it will also be invaluable to miners who could use the information to pin point exactly where gold or other mineral deposits are located.
Minister within the Ministry of Natural Resources Simona Broomes said the information will reduce wanton destruction of the environment while fitting perfectly into the government’s green economy agenda.
“I would want to see that we move to quantification so not only do we know that there is some amount of mineral here but, we know the value, the worth for the mineral that is there,” Broomes said. #guyana#mining$ssp
@HHorseman@MiningBookGuy I just hope I'm not too biased since nowadays Orca is a large holding for me (with good reason imho) :P. Anyway I have been compiling my own spread sheets to help compare valuations etc that updates every 2 minute or so. I am thinking of trying to put it up online if other people find it useful. I will probably be playing with correlations and stuff like that in Python (Which I am learning ATM). I will probably do some benchmarking as well.
- Spread sheet of my "gold company watchlist".
Basically explorers/developers. It is still not complete, but it is enough to help me deploy capital when I have some money over (almost fully invested as of now). Some Resource numbers etc can be off, but I use it mainly for Price/X and intra sector/type market cap comparisons anyway. Every market cap is FULLDY DILUTED and converted to USD. $SSP$GQC$ORG
@HHorsemanHey again guys. After reading Stewart Thomson's latest article regarding the potential impact of the Indian Rupee's impact on the gold market I added the USD/INR exchange rate to my correlation table and made some graphs. In short: #Gold#Silver but especially the miners showed a strong correlation with the exchange rate. India being a top 2 and top 1 consumer of gold and silver respectively, one would think that the strength of the country's currency could(should?) be a factor to consider for metals and gold/silver mining bulls.
You can see my findings here:
I don't know where I should post stuff like this, and if people actually find it interesting(?). $GQC$SSP$ORG#Gold#Silver
Best regards /THH
@MiningBookGuy@HHorseman RE: https://ceo.ca/org?4cd31068e1ff - really cool website you created here! I look forward to more updates. I will tag your main website at 'mbgtrends' as another place to 'distribute' :)
btw, there are people who "have suggested that late stage developers just prior to production is the "easiest" way to ride catch a big evaluation." but i like $ORG in particular because of the huge, additional exploration potential, on top of a solid development project. I have actually moved away from most projects where I don't see 'enough' exploration potential. But the funny thing is that you tagged $SSP and $GQC, and both of those good additional examples of development projects with continued exploration potential. So you seem to focus on a lot of the stuff I like :)
@HHorseman$MiningBookGuy Thanks man! I will be sure to att #mbgtrends as well. I just didn't want to barge in and "hi-jack" threads not knowing if people actually liked the content I put up. I would like to add that it was your youtube videos of $ORG that really opened my eyes on the company. Those vids, the CEO interview a while back on top of some DD of my own really cemented Orca as a very lucrative investment in my mind.
I am thinking of making a post of what I look for in companies regarding maximum appreciation potential... Stuff like development stage, time and size potential etc. If gold would start a big rally TODAY towards $1400 for example, a company like $SSP would probably rocket past most gold juniors since it's viability will go from low to good quite fast. And the size is just enormous. A high margin project will ofc not change that much, neither a big potential play like Orca since there are still a few unknowns left. It's pretty obvious when you consider the market cap of $SSP with companies that pretty much only has potential and not much bankable but are in "good jurisdictions".
That's also one apsect I like with $ORG. I mean if Orca stays cheap even when near/at production, the profits will still be as real as profits in Nevada for example. Those profits could even be used to diversify even beyond Ivory Coast. Ergo, Orca's current valuation is like the saying of "leaving cash at the table" IMHO.Sooner or later, the valuation should be forced up with such savvy people as Rick Clarke and management along with the Lundins and Beaty.
@FundamentalAnalysis@MiningBookGuy Hahaha absolutely. Managed to catch a good few multibaggers over the last couples of years. Only because even the developers/producers were trading from such a ridiculous level hence my thesis at the time was "I don't even need to take the exploration risk to multi-bag"....but I think good 10baggers from todays prices unless gold/metals go parabolic, they will only be found in explorers as you said and for the most part I'm not into too many explorers bar a few exceptions I still have a holding like $IVN, $GQC, $TK, $SSP etc.... which for the most part have now become developer/explorers...
@HHorsemanHey! I did ran correlations for some of the most watched gold companies here on CEO. I will probably add more later.
It would be interesting to run simulations to see if a low correlation portfolio would have had a better risk adjusted return than a high gold beta/ high correlation portfolio, but that is for another time.
(A high correlation number between two stocks imply that they move very much in tandem and vice versa).
I personally own quite a few stocks that seemed to have low correlation with GDX/GDXJ... My portfolio did not keep up with the Q1 rally in the mining indices. Since then I have added a small position in 3x Bull/Bear GDX depending on where I think we are in the intermediate cycle. This has worked out pretty well so far, since my core portfolio (100% long) was up the last couple of days while my 3x BEAR GDXJ/GDXJ ETF' also showed profit. Anyway, do not read too much into these correlations IMHO for the reasons specified in the post, but it may be a tool to lower portfolio volatility.
@FundamentalAnalysis@Onlyflaws Thanks will look out for it.....read the book Aswath wrote about valuing companies - think it was called the little book on valuation (250page book or so). You are right that I'm a numbers guy primarily, however I always remember look forwards when number crunching...accounts only tell us whats happened, and its only useful to engage the financial strength of a company (cash, debt etc...) and less so what lies ahead. I always think about if this was my business, how will I get my money back and how long would it take. I personally don't mind paying a high multiple as long as value will be added. so a p/e of 50 is fine....as long as I can see strong earnings potential to justify the premium. Optionality plays like $SSP for example have basically negative multiples, but if you believe in future prospects in the case of optionality higher gold prices....then its a premium worth paying so that's like a growth stock I have as its intrinsic value especially when gold was sub $1200 was pretty much zero.
@HHorseman@Jayfire$CDB has given back most of it's drill hit gains, which made me buy a small amount today. $DV is looking really cheap, but I have such a large position already that I can't really justify buying more. $TGZ seems cheap. I think that some pure silver exploration plays are expensive relative to silver explorer/developers. At the same time some pure gold exploration plays seem pretty cheap. I would like to pick up more $F but I would like it to drop a bit more first. $SSP is starting to get pretty cheap again...
Actually I think there is a lot of disclocation in the precious metal sector right now. Most producers seem to price in a higher gold price, silver exploration plays seem to price in a decent silver price, silver explorers/developers seem to be pricing in a low silver price, some gold explorers/developers seem to be pricing in a low gold price. #Gold#Silver#mbgtrends
Sum up: I am not eyeing mid/large cap producers (except $KL and $TGZ). I am eyeing gold explorers/developers that has taken big hits already (diverged from GDX/GDXJ), like $SSP, the chronically cheap $ORG even though they have held up pretty good compared to others in the last couple of weeks. I am not eyeing many pure exploration plays in silver ATM but I am eyeing silver explorers/developers with silver in the bank. I think they have too low of a premium compared to the pure hope plays.
With an escalation in trade wars and tariffs (most recently the US tariff on Canadian lumber) I try to diversify geographically as much as I can.
@HHorseman@MiningBookGuy Thanks man! The few grass root #silver explorers I track are trading at 7-10MUSD, while there are quite a few #gold explorers in the same stage that are trading at 3-5MUSD. Yesterday I picked up a few gold "lottery tickets" in $GUG and $SSS . Given that a lot of gold developers have positive NPV's at $1250 along with most producers making a profit... while many silver companies are still struggling I don't get how the silver "hope plays" are trading at a premium to the gold plays in similar positions.
And the fact that there are plenty of gold developers trading for 100MUSD+ compared to silver developers like $DV$GRG$KTN$SSP who are trading for <55MUSD it just goes to show that finding gold is more profitable at these metal prices.
To rehash personal conclusion: Silver developers (Cheap), silver explorers (Not so cheap), Silver producers (decent but also struggling ATM).
@AlanSelling my #bitcoin at $1300 is looking like a silly move right about now! One of the hardest things! I've been thinking about #speculating vs #investing recently. To clarify, investing is putting capital into businesses that make money. Speculating is taking advantage of government caused distortions on companies that are losing money. Doing both is important in my opinion. But weigh both up based on your own emotional and psychological makeup. I'm pretty sure many people on this channel don't invest at all and are 100% into companies losing money in the hope that the underlying commodity goes up. If so, be careful. I've rebalanced my own portfolio into 20% money (gold,silver,cash) 50% investments (royalties, dividends) and 30% speculations (junior gold, oil, uranium). My speculation percentage was higher prior to the recent breakdown. Ultimately, I'm looking for financial independence and yes I could have been lucky and the price of gold and silver could of taken off and my portfolio would have enabled me to reach that goal. Clearly as I'm writing this, it's not the case. We all will be able to stomach different risks and I have learnt my risk tolerance is lower than I previously thought. My plan is to generate enough income from my investments to then put into speculations. Whereas I have been focusing more on speculating in the hope of increasing my net worth so I could then invest. Perhaps the wrong way around. Other things I have learnt is to focus on large reserve, non-producing potential future mines. Kind of like, $SSP, $NAK, $FF, $GZZ, $GOLD. These have held up better (maybe excluding $NAK) than other mining companies like $ANF and many of the producers. For a start, they are not selling gold and silver at these cheap prices. Investment wise, I'd look at the royalty companies. Really liking $OSK, $SLW and a few others. Just some thoughts I've had over the last week or so.
@GoldfingerIf $Gold is US$1400 one year from now the best places you can be invested are mid-tier producers and late-stage explorers like $CNL and $SBB. Next would be large scale, lower grade projects like $SSP which are marginal around US$1200/oz but at US$1400 or US$1500 Au Toroparu will have to get built.
@FundamentalAnalysis@Onlyflaws Welcome to the club, have both myself. Actually added to the latter last week. $SSP$GQC....seems to be a reasonably popular choice. $GQC in particular is good value. In my opinion it becomes a no brainer, if the share price doesn't budge and all major permits come through.........