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@ocotilloredux All the more reason $tk should upgrade to the TSX after a PEA. $tv is using the "pure play" mantra to their advantage. Always ends bad.
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@ocotilloredux Quick. Name me three people that work for $tv. You can't since it is the new Glencore shell vehicle along the lines of $kat.
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SEDI_bot Trevali Mining Corporation $TV just filed 1 reports. View full report: SEDI:TV
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@Wannabeinvestor @Maggee, as far as offtake, $TV has always had it with Glencore so nothing has really changed here.
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@Pete $tv deal could be good for $tk as some investors will move over here now the takeover potential of TV is gone.
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from #tk,
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@rdww 25% ownership by Glencore will be a killer. NIF has the same structure, but Glencore controls this company. They supply all the feed and take all the finished. A # of factors have reduced the mkt cap of the 2nd largest smelter in NA to $65 MM (the conc in storage is worth 2 or 3x more) with dire talk about its ongoing future thrown about. Glencore made offers to buy out NIF over the yrs and were rebuffed, but each year they manage to find more interesting ways to help downtick the value of the smelter. Welcome aboard the Glencore train(wreck) TV! Most if not all of TV's Zn goes to this smelter already. Glencore is simply locking TV into a constant source of Zn as they tighten their grip on the Zn mkt.
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@rdww anyone know where the offtake from Roah and Perkoa go now?
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@Wannabeinvestor @rdww -- very likely to Glencore, where else?
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@Wannabeinvestor anyone seen any broker research on the $TV deal?
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@ocotilloredux @FundamentalAnalysis My fear is precisely $tv taking a run at $tk at Glencore's behest well before the market understands the potential here.
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from #tk,
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@L.A. $tv just bought two zinc projects from Glencore... do they have money left ?
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from #tk,
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@TheGalvanizer It's not so much about what money $tv has @L.A. it's what Glencore wants $tv to go after
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from #tk,
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@L.A. $tv is like glencores subsidiary ?
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from #tk,
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@enviro111 $TV is a known zinc producer with a powerful partner in glencore. without glencore they would not have gotten caribou's met recoveries up to par. I cannot see how having a strong partner is a negative. If zinc goes up, TV will go up even faster. If not, then I don't want it. Besides, TV is cheap right now. I would rather be a producer during the occasional zinc boom than an explorer. By the time $TK gets its mine up to production, the zinc boom might be over. $TK is pure speculation,and perhaps a bad one right now. It went from $0.32 to $0.55 in three weeks. This usually calls for a correction at least? I can easily see it falling back to $0.40. Have they released a PEA or a FS yet?
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@FundamentalAnalysis @enviro111 $TK will move to some extent with the zinc price as its in ground value is worth more or less, but its key advantage is that it will also move on its own merit as value is added, on top of that there is the added value of someone looking to potentially buy it should everything stack up. Reason being that there is a real lack of quality zinc projects. (Also low base metal/precious metal prices means less by product zinc). On the other hand if the zinc price crashes, $TK may suffer (good explorers buck the trends as the commodities market is no longer completely broken) but $TV will get hit. That's the risk with the producers.
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from #tk,
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@ocotilloredux The only reason $tv finished 2016 with more cash than they started with was due to the issuance of equity. This will be a common theme with them which is why I have always said to follow their cash flow statements and not the income statement. (btw I don't know how they calculate depreciation seeing as the two current mines have no compliant reserves. Seems to me Stillwater got into hot water over this in the past.) Being the only TSX zinc pure play, they will use this advantage to issue stock like a currency. So, drill off Ayawilca, do a PEA on inferred resources in Q4, list on the TSX in Q1 2018 and give these boys some competition with a fresh mine, not four tired dogs.
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from #tk,
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@FundamentalAnalysis As per the accounting notes, recoverable resources can be used to determine depreciation. In my opinion this is highly worrying so should be looked into if you are investing in $TV. See note : "Estimated recoverable mineral reserves and resources are used to determine the depreciation of property, plant and equipment at operating mine sites, in performing impairment testing and in forecasting the timing of the payment of decommissioning and restoration costs. Therefore, changes in the assumptions used could affect the carrying value of assets, depreciation and impairment charges recorded in the statement of operations and comprehensive income and the carrying value of the decommissioning and restoration provision. As of December 31, 2016, the Company did not have proven mineral reserves as defined by NI 43-101." Page 10 of the 2016 financials show the depreciation rates considered. Upto the investor to determine how aggressive the policies are. As a rule of thumb depreciation far below the re-investment sustaining costs is a sign over the long term they are too lenient with their depreciation policies....free cash flow people as always.....you take Operating cash flow and subtract the cashflow used to continue current operations (I.e sustaining capex). If that's negative (like most precious metal miners)..you have an issue. $TV
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from #tk,
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@ocotilloredux Thanks for that @FundamentalAnalysis. I will try to find some time to trace the history of Breakwater Resources to illustrate that they essentially mined retail investors for many years with the mining of zinc as a sideshow. I think in the end they had something like 800 million shares outstanding but would have to look back at it. Never paid a dividend from what I can recall. Trevali is taking a page out of their book. The sophisticated preying upon the unsophisticated is all it amounts to. $tv are likely glad they are not on the NYSE since they would have to write these assets off since the NYSE will not let you depreciate against resources. When Stillwaters "reserves" were outed as actually being resources I think they had to write off a few hundred million from what I recall. In my more mischievous days, I caused Apex Silver Mines some issues along similar lines with one simple online query to the SEC. I pull the wings off house flies for entertainment also.
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from #tk,
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@FundamentalAnalysis @ocotilloredux Looking at Trevali's $TV financials. There 2016 doesn't look horrendous but one needs to make a judgement on how much CAPEX will be required in future years. The company generated FCF but what seems to have occured is that they have borrowing costs/finance leases costs (see cashflow from financing)....which basically created the shortfall hence the fund raise. Also 2016 zinc prices as an average would have probably been lower then what it is now....so as long as capex doesn't go out of control, and zinc prices remains and they can mine out what they think they can do with sufficient output they could be ok....but would be good to see Breakwaters situation.
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from #tk,
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@ocotilloredux And guess who those borrowing costs were paid to... Glencore. My take is that Cruise is infatuated with zinc output, not looking after shareholders, so he will pull the trigger on Half Mile/Stratmat blowing out 2017/18 capex. They also have a big capex bill for new mobile equipment coming at Caribou since they are kicking the mining contractor off site. $tv
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from @ocotilloredux,
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@Wannabeinvestor I have always found it strange that $TV did not have 43-101 compliant reserve estimates. Is there a good explanation for that? Is it plain complacency, management ineptitude or cost issue?
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@Wannabeinvestor I still think that if the Zn bull run will continue $TV should attract a lot of dumb institutional money once the deal is closed. This pure-play argument and larger capitalisation will appeal to institutions.
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@Vaughan @zincagain, if you are looking for high leverage, #zinc explorers are where to look. Two favourites of smarter people than I are $tk and $vtt. For a more derisked position, consider looking at names like $tv or $teck. Fwiw imo.
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@zeroboot May want to avoid $tv as its become a dumpster for glencore to offload stuff.
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from #tk,
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@L.A. @zeroboot ...and $tv is diluting their shareholders in the process. Avoid.
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from #tk,
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@Wannabeinvestor Not sure I agree with his valuation methodology, but it does provide a bit of an interpretation of the deal with GLEN:http://seekingalpha.com/article/4055754-trevali-shocks-market-deal-good?app=1&uprof=4&isDirectRoadblock=false
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@SotalyTober @TheGalvanizer - :) - Gotta love the $TV action - added off -.12 sell off on news
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from #index,
@marketwired The Gold Report Examines How Trevali's Purchase of Zinc Assets from Glencore Extend Its Reach Globally @marketwired/the-gold-report-examines-how-trevalis-purchase-of $TV $TV $TREVF
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from #newsroom,
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@TheGalvanizer My big bets are largely in zinc... lots of healthy discussion in the ~zinc panel that augments channels such as $tv and $tk and the like
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from #tk,
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wannabeinvestor InkaColaNews take on the deal: http://incakolanews.blogspot.com.ee/2017/03/trevali-tvto-dilutes-again.html
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@Excelsior @Fanagalo and @PamplonaTrader - Great discussion on some of the #Zinc mining companies that haven't had as much discussion lately like $HER $HRR.AX $ZAZ $CEM $FOM. It has been exciting to see all the interest building for the last few months around $TK $VTT and $TV and we are finally seeing signs of the sector-wide Zinc party getting under way. It is still earlier days though, as 2017 & 2018 should continue to be a great years for the Zinc Jrs.
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from #her,
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@Pokey #TV becomes the largest #Zinc producer globally and the largest public pure play zinc player.
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@Pokey #TV production goes from 129mm lbs to 400mm lbs.
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@Pokey #TV Transaction is accretive on many metrics but in particular EV/Editda. ..#Zinc
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@Pokey #TV pretty much the only institutional grade exposure to #Zinc production.
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@Pokey #TV Sorry make that the 8th largest #Zinc producer globally.
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@HRA-Coffin Glencore makes as much - or more -money trading metal as they do making metal. I suspect that if they could sell all the mines on terms similar to the $TV transaction = where they control the concentrate trading - they would probably do it.
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from ~zinc,
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@TheGalvanizer It's a point some folks raised after the $tv deal @martinTurenne and it's a fair question to ask. In the case of $TV they removed operating risk while increasing overall interest in $TV from 4% to 25% and secured, most importantly, the offtake that is central to their business. Im not saying they are doing a reverse in mining aka Nystar (with Trafigura exerting some influence on their direction im sure) but in some ways the metal itself is way more important to them than who gets it out the ground. Just my take on it.
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from ~zinc,
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@TheGalvanizer It's a point some folks raised after the $tv deal @martinTurenne and it's a fair question to ask. In the case of $TV they removed operating risk while increasing overall interest in $TV from 4% to 25% and secured, most importantly, the offtake that is central to their business. Im not saying they are doing a reverse in mining aka Nystar (with Trafigura exerting some influence on their direction im sure) but in some ways the metal itself is way more important to them than who gets it out the ground. Just my take on it.
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from ~zinc,
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@ocotilloredux Q: I assume $tv will have to file NI 43-101's for these Glencore assets prior to purchase would they not? Glencore has never published details not even in their IPO.
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from ~zinc,
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@TheGalvanizer Trading zinc and $tv shares
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from ~zinc,
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@Excelsior #RickRule Pre #PDAC 2017 #Mining Stocks on #BNN Market Call MARCH 3, 2017 Rick Rule covers a great deal of ground in this BNN #Video interview (from a few weeks back) on some of the more popular mining companies: $IVN Ivanhoe, $ANF Anfield Gold, $KL Kirkland Lake, $CGP Cornerstone Capital & $SOLG.L SolGold, $PVG Pretium Resources, $NAK $NDM Northern Dynasty, the XAU Index, $DDC Dominion Diamond, Reservoir minerals/ $NSU Nevsun, $HL Hecla Mining, $PAAS Pan American Silver, the #Silver market fundamentals, $CDB Cordoba, $SLW Silver Wheaton, $BGM Barkerville Goldmine, $VIT Victoria Gold, $DPM Dundee Precious Metals, $LUC Lucara Diamond, investing in #Gold bullion, Off balancesheet liabilities and #debt of the US Government, $TV Trevali Mining, $NXE Nexgen Energy, $ALS Altius Minerals, $BTG B2Gold http://www.pennyminingstocks.com/rick-rule-pre-pdac-2017-mining-stocks-bnn-market-call/
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from #index,
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A. Paul Gill @courtninja - #ninjapicks - $AVX - Zinc, drilling soon. $PST - deal with Rio Tinto - and $TV - big deal with Glencore. All this is good news for juniors. Majors are buying in.
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from @courtninja,
@marketwired Trevali Announces Closing of C$264,546,000 Bought Deal Financing and Amendment to Agreement to Purchase Glencore's Producing Rosh Pinah and Perkoa Zinc Mines @marketwired/trevali-announces-closing-of-c264546000-bought-deal $TV $TV $TREVF $4TI
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from #newsroom,
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@SotalyTober $TV - Trevali Mining closes $264.54-million bought deal - http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aTV-2456052&symbol=TV&region=C
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from #index,
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@TheGalvanizer Canaccord Morning Coffee – Thurs. Mar 30, 2017 – #CanadianEnergy $ELD $OGI $OSK $RHT $TD $TECK $TV $UR $VML $XEG http://ow.ly/8l9p30ao01s
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@CriticalInvestor @ocotilloredux Nice story about Glencore and the juniors, although it looks like they want to use $TV for something strategic. As long as they need it of course. I'm looking into $TV's mines a bit, and I found it to be impossible to find out what amount of capex was used for Santander, do you have any idea? Tough act to follow this Trevali, no reserves, no studies on their mines, CF is for a large part based on depreciation etc so being valued at 18 times CF is very, very rich
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from ~zinc,