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CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
@PamplonaTrader$ARL.AX A$0.37 #cobalt#nickelhttp://imgur.com/FZJIVCy+
You'll note C1 cash cost is higher in the 20Ktpa scoping study. This is because the cobalt zone is high-graded early on in the mine life and by-product credits diminish as lower grade ore is mined. They will need to define more high grade tonnage to make the 20ktpa scenario work.
Take my calculations with a grain of salt. Assumptions can change. If sulfur prices remain depressed and if Simulus' proprietary acid recovery process can reduce consumption down to 250kg/t or lower, it is going to have a big impact on economics. Also, if share price is strong, it lowers the cost of capital and dilution can be minimized.
Still a giant valuation gap...
Plenty of cobalt in the DRC, the world does not need for anyone to find more cobalt there. If there are supply disruptions as a consequence of the volatile political climate in the DRC, what do you suppose happens to cobalt prices? $ARL.AX would certainly participate in higher prices but will $NZC.AX?
The other question - in a jurisdiction with extremely rich copper-cobalt mines, how does $NZC.AX differentiate itself? Does it make sense for Glencore to divert capital from Katanga/Mutanda to develop a much smaller deposit in Kalongwe? Kalongwe would have to be a HUGE deposit for Glencore to want it. Likewise, it would have to be HUGE for anyone else to justify the long-term financial commitment of developing Kalongwe given the obvious risk of operating in the jurisdiction.
Even Gertler's Fleurette is getting the heck out of dodge. With the unraveling of Kabila's regime, Gertler can no longer leverage political connections. Glencore is monied enough to navigate the difficult climate and if there are bumps along the way, it can ride out the issues.
Having said the above, I know a couple of smart people in $NZC.AX - they are buying it for what Kalowange can become. Personally, I'd rather buy $ARL.AX for what KNP already is.
@MiningBookGuy@Brendan - i'm on board with $ARL.AX (thx @PamplonaTrader!)
While I'm still learning more about the nickel-cobalt deposit, I think $ARL.AX has an opportunity to do a new study that focuses on higher-grade cobalt sections. But the real story is "what happens if SHTF in the $DRC?" This is a real concern... same type of concern for #platinum in #SouthAfrica, #palladium in #Russia. Take note that $SBGL was shrewd and bought $SWC BEFORE massive disruption. IF something goes wrong in #DRC, I think it's natural to look for SCALE in SAFE jurisdictions...not tiny, high-grade #cobalt plays. There's real grand-slam potential here because of #geopolitics. $ARL.AX is going to get more attention.
Anyway, I'm on board with that part of the story. But $ARL.ax is intriguing for other reasons @PamplonaTrader brought up. Keep in mind they have an advanced #gold#zinc project and early stage nickel exploration, all in #Australia. Basically, 'going beyond cobalt', $ARL.AX is intriguing for many reasons. But the cobalt aspect (and ridiculous valuation) pulled me in
@Goldfinger$TSLA reminds me of $AMZN 10 years ago. You can't value it on current earnings, all about the pie in the sky 3, 4, 5, 10 years down the road. And on that road you can be sure that there will be disappointments which will lead to shake outs which will lead to buying opportunities. This is a growth story and it will be told over a very long time frame. $cobalt$graphite$lithium
@PamplonaTrader@Brendan lets see you convince the market of that. If a civil war erupts, I'd bet you #cobalt prices spike, developed world cobalt plays like $ARL.AX spike, and DRC cobalt plays like $KAT sell-off.
@MiningBookGuy@Brendan - if i was smarter, i would have dug deeper into understanding the #DRC and #cobalt in general. but honestly, i feel that you can be 'dumb' and buy $ARl.AX at these levels, and feel pretty good about it for the reasons I gave.
I think there's a lot of potential for all sorts of resources in the #DRC ...but i also think it's far riskier than the typical speculator perceives at the moment (relative to a basket of 'risky' jurisdictions around the world). Absolutely it can turn around for the better (I will never forget how negative people got on #BurkinaFaso when Campaore got booted, and how quickly it has bounced back). #DRC is big and complex, and some regions may hold up far better than others during a crisis, as they have historically. But #DRC does have some negative signals that can't be ignored right now, IMO. #geopolitics#congo (*note - i generally hesitate to use this tag because of the 'other' congo, but maybe i'll start using #congo#DRC interchangeably)
@Excelsior@MiningBookGuy - Great points on $ARL.AX and giving investors the option of diversifying out of riskier jurisdictions like #DRC for #Cobalt exposure. I wish Ardea all the success in the world and personally have some exposure to them through their mother company $HER Heron Resources.
Heron has a nice share position since they were the ones that just spun out these projects to create Ardea. This was the wise move for Heron, so they could strictly focus on their Woodlawn #Copper#Zinc project, and because these other #Cobalt and other #BaseMetals projects were not getting properly valued by the marketplace anyway under Heron's umbrella.
Now these projects that Ardea holds separately have a chance to advance, and the focus of Heron can stay on taking Woodlawn into #production. Fun times!
@backstroke_Yup debt, however if $KAT deliver on 20000tpa cobalt that's a huge chunk of cash with which to pay it down. All these small marginal at best cobalt plays in Australia etc would cost many times that debt amount in order to produce half of what KAT is now built to churn out. Market needs that cobalt now and over next five years, not starting in 2020s with dribs and drabs coming on. #cobalt
@PamplonaTrader"Tesla is planning to finalize the locations for three more Gigafactories later this year, the company revealed in its shareholder letter for the fourth quarter of 2016. The company has two Gigafactories currently, the enormous one in Nevada that we visited last year, and a facility in Buffalo where Tesla and Panasonic are building solar panels.
In the letter, Tesla said that it “expects to finalize locations for Gigafactories 3, 4, and possibly 5.” Gigafactory 1 is currently focused on production of Tesla’s Powerwall and Powerpack energy storage products, and “2170” battery cells for use in those storage systems as well as the upcoming Model 3."