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CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
@cole119As far as $FCU RE update now looking to be late 2017 - My theory is FCU realizes they are the ugly older sister of the two deposits. Why update their RE to perhaps 150-200M lbs or whatever it might be - only to be trumped shortly afterwards by NXE's 350-400m update. They will let $NXE update RE, and hopefully get picked off - Dev and Ross can see that inevitably Arrow will be sold. As someone said to me, "She is younger, prettier, larger bussomed and virgin (no CGN Anchor)." Once the bar is set and the market has dictated a price for Arrow - THEN FCU becomes the only other somewhat decent pick as scrappy seconds. It's actually the better way for FCU to play themselves. Therefore FCU price might be stuck in the doldrums for the foreseeable future - at least a full year. Only rising U prices/U sentiment can help them. Just my thoughts along with another smart person's input.
@Excelsior@EvenPrime - you got it. :-) #Uranium$FCU$FCUUF had the chance to merge with a quality company (Denison) $DNN$DML with access to one of the few mills in the Athabasca and the past experience as a producer, but that deal fizzled out because the Fission shareholders got a bit full of their self worth. Mistake #1.
Then they did that partial earn in with CGN Mining Company and screwed the pooch. Mistake #2
On top of that their water issues are not something the $NXE$NXGEF team would want to take on. Just look at what $CCO$CCJ has had to go through with their water issues.....
@BDMinefinderZERO chance of a merger with $FCU.... so please stop talking about that nonsense. Don't want to get into the reasons as I have stated them before and they should be obvious to anyone who does their homework.
@BruceWayneBroken through the 0.57 wall. Onwards and upwards.
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@PamplonaTraderFor the newcomers - The (oversimplified) reasons why $NXE will never take out $FCU:
1. $NXE is proving up Arrow at a rate of $0.13/lbs. Therefore, a takeover of $FCU would be a highly dilutive way to add inventory.
2. $FCU's Triple R is under a lake i.e. complicated permitting, longer developmental timeline, larger CapEx. All this means no developmental synergies and zero benefit to NPV.
3. $FCU can avoid the complication if they scrapped their plans to open pit Triple R in favor of underground mining. But that also means over half their resource will be sterilized as their best ore will be left untouched in the crown pillar.
@BruceWayneBids stacking up for $FCU. Wonder if we'll climb above 0.70 today
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@lukejacksonIf anything the first thing we will see is just a relief rally, which may really excite the market. We haven't seen one for quite some time. it's also a market that's looking for other commodities to buy outside of gold, and the uranium market is CHEAP. $NXE$GXU$EFR$FCU
@lukejacksonYes, but it's a far more illiquid market than other commodities. If there's a strong seller (no different than in the junior markets) and there's no buyer... price can get whacky. I think what we are seeeing now is that there's no sizeable sellers down at $18 per pound because most producers still have offtakes much higher... when the hedges come off of many of them we will see bankruptcies, and a more clear supply and demand picture. It's a bit like oil when it hit $25. What's interesting to me is that a substitute like natural gas has doubled over the past year. How will that affect structural nuclear demand if Uranium remains at historically low levels? $NXE$GXU$FCU$EFR
@Excelsior@Goldfinger - there may be a billion pounds of #Uranium in the #AthabascaBasin, $CCJ$DNN$NXE$FCU$UEX$CVV$AL but not all of it will be as "economically viable" as some believe due to the depth, water issues, permitting timelines, environmental push-back. Some of that Athabasca Uranium is actually underwater making accessing the ore more challenging, or directing miners to underground where they lose much of those ounces. This is one of the key advantages $NXE has over many of it's neighbors for example.
Higher grade is awesome, but it isn't always the most economical. There are plenty of commodities where lower grade resources end up being more economical due to power, roads, water, jurisdiction, taxes, permitting, distance to mill, etc... The other thing about much of the exploration being done in the Athabasca is that much of it is years away from all the permits and development needed to bring it to market.
Many of the existing producers or development stage companies in the #US ( $UUUU$URG$UEC$URRE$PENMF$WSTRF) and #Australia ( $EGRAF$BKLRF$TOEYF$BNNLF$BOE.AX ) are positioned to capitalize on prices as they rise in 2017-2020. The US is the #1 nuclear country and imports 90% of its fuel. (just imagine if the US imported 90% of it's Oil) The US producers that supply this need will have a big advantage for negotiations in this next cycle, as will the African deposits that may supply the reactors being built in #Africa, the #MiddleEast, and #Europe . #Index
@BrianBitcoinBull@Xriva with regards to #Uranium I do like $UUUU but at this stage of the cycle I actually like that $UEC has halted production and is not depleting their resource in a depressed market. $NXE is a great exploration project as is $FCU. $DNN I as really impressed with David Cates when I him and the some of the great things they have going running the mill for Cigar Lake, the clean up unit and if you look at a map of the Athabasca more than likely the next mine will be on the eastern side where there property is and utilities are. Fission and NexGen while excellent projects are far off and will take a great deal of infrastructure.
@PamplonaTrader" @BDMinefinder I have heard from a number of people that have spoken to Lukas Lundin and he wants out of Denison. He took a top lieutenant from Denison and put if on his Fruta del Norte (Lundin Gold) and he tried to merge with Fission, to dilute his interest down and allow Dev to run it. He would have been diluted below 10% and I think he would have resigned from the board, then gradually sold his stock. Plan failed, but we all know how much due diligence Lukas must have done to merge with Fission.....none. The reason he did not is because he had other plans. Just my opinion. I have know Lukas for a long time and that is my best guess."
In response to your comment above, I have heard the same. Early last year @Tommy asked Lukas about Fission and Lukas joked that maybe Fission should take out Denison.
Lukas has a pretty poor track record in #uranium. He bungled the first deal with Fission Energy and allowed Dev to keep PLS, which went on to become bigger than $DML. The failed merger with $FCU was reportedly his out.
@Excelsior@PamplonaTrader & @BDMinefinder - I'm a little slow at times so let me make sure I understand the plan with #Uranium miners....
Sell $DML$DNN Denison tomorrow before Lukas jumps ship, and never buy "stupid lbs out of #Africa that should never be put in production" like $GXU Goviex or water-logged $FCU Fission, and just buy more $NXE Nexgen... Right?
I can dig it! :-)
@FundamentalAnalysis@PamplonaTrader also in regards to chinese investment. I think fission $fcu has a chinese investor and even $UEC has if i remember correctly Li Ka Shing invested in it he has also provided I believe some form of credit facility to them along with sprott. So I don't really see foreign investment stakes as carrying to much weight. We need to consider the big picture and how the players are going to behave. $nxe
1. I am not aware of any commodity experiencing a perpetual bull market. Also, your concerns with regard to volatility and cyclicality is not exclusive to explorers in the uranium space. If volatility and cyclicality make you uncomfortable, perhaps you are speculating in the wrong sector;
2. Again, Arrow is a strategic asset and $NXE will not be allowed to put Arrow into production. If and when conditions in the uranium market improve, Arrow will be the Grand Prize and will not be left to "sit";
3. Yes, the cost of acquisition will be significant. But you are flawed in your thinking Cameco will have to go it alone. Both McArthur River and Cigar Lake are joint ventures. Cameco is in an exploration and development pact with CGN and there are credible rumors of CGN recapitalizing Cameco via strategic investment once the tax issue is settled with the CRA. As well, there is nothing blocking foreign entities from owning and operating a mill, the cost for which will be roughly half the total CapEx for Arrow;
4. In one post you expressed concern over the Chinese preferring African and Kazakh mines and then in the next post reference three recent examples of the Chinese making strategic investments in Canadian/American exploration and development companies ($NXE $FCU$UEC). This after suggesting monied entities only having interest in producing assets;
5. You admitted to not having studied Arrow in too much detail. I think that is evident as otherwise you'd understand its strategic nature. Cameco defined 200Mlbs from surface before going underground to prove up over 600Mlbs of uranium. NexGen appears to be on pace for over 400Mlbs from surface, before ever going underground;
6. Not only will Arrow likely match (and possibly exceed) the total tonnage at McArthur, the setting should make Arrow much easier to mine and as a consequence much more profitable;
7. Mining Arrow will be technically straight-forward. Most miners with underground operations will have the technical capacity to develop Arrow. It also helps that Cameco recently laid off 500 employees from Rabbit Lake, which is also a basement hosted, vertically stacked deposit - the talent is readily available. Therefore, your assumption that there exists "only a few players in the uranium space with the expertise to develop Arrow" is factually incorrect; and
8. In one part of your post, you expressed concern regarding the limited technical expertise available to develop Arrow, yet in another part of your post you suggested mine supply could ramp quickly vs. demand growth. Globally, uranium mine production has been in a 30,000t-60,000t range for 60 years. The Athabasca Basin, which is often referred to as the "Saudi Arabia of Uranium" currently has just two operating uranium mines. I think you may be overstating the ability to bring new mine supply online.
@GoldfingerGiven size of $uranium sector if hedge funds start to really pile back into this sector we will see lots of stocks double and triple from current levels. Lots of meat on the bone if this really turns into a bull market cycle. $CCJ$CCO$FCU$GXU$NXE$uranium$URA
@GoldfingerThe $uranium stock rally of the last couple of months is an example of how trend following traders can miss out on big moves at turning points. We've seen many stocks rise 50%-100% in the span of 2 months but only now would trend followers begin to pay attention to this sector. Of course they would have also missed out on being long during most of the brutal declines. $CCJ$CCO$FCU$GXU$NXE$URA
@joegreatwhitenorthOnly a used car salesman could come up with two stock symbols that are basically saying F*** U!! Maybe their idea of an inside joke. Very clever. Based on that alone, how do you invest with these guys. $FUU$FCU
@lukejacksonI think the intersting thing about Uranium assets... is there's so few. So unlike gold projects, when People feel like Uranium has bottomed and they want to speculate on that, there's almost nowhere to go. We may have seen nothing yet... $GXU$NXE$FCU$DML
@MilksPrimeI think the intersting thing about Uranium assets... is there's so few. So unlike gold projects, when People feel like Uranium has bottomed and they want to speculate on that, there's almost nowhere to go. We may have seen nothing yet... $GXU$NXE$FCU$DML
@MilksPrime@lukejackson I think the intersting thing about Uranium assets... is there's so few. So unlike gold projects, when People feel like Uranium has bottomed and they want to speculate on that, there's almost nowhere to go. We may have seen nothing yet... $GXU$NXE$FCU$DML