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@ValueInvest The forecaster in me is having a vision of a permanent higher gold price around $10,000 and silver price of $500. We may get an overshoot to $20,000 or higher but gold will settle around $10,000 and will not drop back to $1,000 ever again. The financial system is shifting and I think we are going toward a gold based financial system at least for the next decade to transition from the distrust in fiat into the next currency system. Therefor I believe in holding $FR, $FF and $GOLD.V for the very long term (next 5 years and longer), because we will see a prolonged period of a gold era. I see the same long term change for uranium. 200 new reactors are built in the next decade and 50 reactors come back online in Japan over the next few years. In the last 50 years we had a huge shift of people migrating into million+ cities. There are currently a lot of problems with air pollution in these cities in China and India. The migration of people into million+ cities will continue, but the air quality must change. Nuclear energy is the lowest cost, clean air, 24-hour base load electricity and therefor reliable solution. A lot of uranium demand is coming, at a time where current large uranium mines are being depleted and no new major uranium producing mines come online. And considering the fact that it takes about 10 years to create a producing uranium mine from start to production. In my opinion, we are at the beginning of a uranium revolution, at a time where there will simply be not enough supply to feed the growing demand. The price of uranium will go to $200 and higher. I believe in holding $UEC and $GXU for the long-term. I have take a speculation in $API, which is mostly a bet on its geologist (James Sykes).
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from #gold.v,
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@Bimbeebop @ValueInvest If I were you I'd smack the "forcaster" in you upside the head and tell him to get a hold of himself. Gold is not going to $10,000 or will "overshoot to $20,000" Anytime soon like hundred years soon.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @ValueInvest......@Bimbeebop maybe speaking harshly....but you must temper down the predictions you are making. It is absolutely dangerous to be making very optimistics forecasts and then build up investments around it. If you believe what you are saying is correct then someone else would also think the same. Warren buffett for example would consider buying up all the gold majors with the excess cash he has and waiting for $10,000 gold....but he isn't and the question is why isn't he...the narrative you have mentioned is out there and the whole world knows about it.
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@ValueInvest I like the reactions and definitely a good challenge. Take a look at the National Debt Clock prices for gold and silver, http://www.usdebtclock.org/ and what price does it take to back all global fiat money with gold? It turns out if you back just 40% of global fiat money with gold, you need a gold price of $10,000. It is my opinion that we will see another financial crisis and a restructuring of the financial system. To introduce a new global currency system, they will have to introduce gold to restore confidence.
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@Bimbeebop @ValueInvest So here's my take on it. The price of #gold is based on the value of the currency it is price in. If gold goes up 10X then the currency has lost 10X value. $10 would buy what $1 does today. To combat this inflation, the central bank increases interest rates which reduces the monetary supply in the economy by reducing debt accumulation. This is deflationary and prices start to drop as there are less dollars to go around, bringing the value of the dollar back up. If the currency collapses altogether, it won't last. There has to be a medium of exchange. Gold will be owned by banks, sovereigns and high net worth individuals but this doesn't fix the problem. Gold will go up for sure but ony for a short time maybe 18-24 months tops. If a gold standard is reinstituted they will have to have a fixed price. The very nature of gold as a stabalizing force for the currency only works in a fiat environment (ie. value is derived by interest on debt) not in a scarcity environment (ie. gold standard).
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@ValueInvest @Bimbeebop nice chatting, difference of opinion, that's ok. It is my opinion that gold and silver are manipulated. I think most people and yourself would agree with that as well. The price you see today is not accurate, but a manufactered price set by the banks. Whatever the real price of gold and silver should be is anybody's guess. As a value investor I don't look at the daily gold and silver price. To me the hourly or daily move from $1,260 to $1,280 does not matter. The price is just rapid changing blips on screen, determined by a paper (and not physical) market. I just know that they are extremely undervalued. And because of that the quality mining companies are undervalued. I hunt for bargains, that is high quality assets at a fraction of the price and then I take a long-term perspective (3-5 years). I only look at the price of a stock when I buy, to make sure I buy undervalued. Once I'm fully positioned, as I am now, I don't look at the daily price, but rather follow the progress of the business. I hunt for quality commodities (gold, silver, uranium and zinc), quality management teams (Keith Neumayer and Amir Adnani), quality geologists, and quality businesses with a resaonable resource deposit ( $FR, $FF, $GOLD, $UEC, $GXU, $API, $CNX). I dollar cost average, becuase I suck at timing. History has shown that the correct price of gold is the price that can back all paper money. If that will happen now, I don't know. But they sure have printed a ton of fiat world wide in the past 8 years. I realize that making forecasts is a fools game, nobody knows how high gold and silver will go, I just know that it will be a lot higher in the coming years, than where it is at today. But if I am betting man, I believe that the US Debt Clock http://www.usdebtclock.org/ comes pretty close to an accurate forecast. You should scroll over the prices and see how they come to that number. I think we will see a major financial crisis, that will lead to a global restructuring of the financial system. But people will have lost all faith in fiat currencies and will not want to accept any new global fiat replacement (SDR). People will demand solid money, therefor my reasoning that gold will play a part into that restructuring. It is the vital element needed for the masses, in the depths of a crisis, to accept a new financial system. Gold will bring stability and restore confidence in the financial system. At what price that will be, I don't know, but much higher than the price today.
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@ValueInvest @Bimbeebop nice chatting, difference of opinion, that's ok. It is my opinion that gold and silver are manipulated. I think most people and yourself would agree with that as well. The price you see today is not accurate, but a manufactered price set by the banks. Whatever the real price of gold and silver should be is anybody's guess. As a value investor I don't look at the daily gold and silver price. To me the hourly or daily move from $1,260 to $1,280 does not matter. The price is just rapid changing blips on screen, determined by a paper (and not physical) market. I just know that they are extremely undervalued. And because of that the quality mining companies are undervalued. I hunt for bargains, that is high quality assets at a fraction of the price and then I take a long-term perspective (3-5 years). I only look at the price of a stock when I buy, to make sure I buy undervalued. Once I'm fully positioned, as I am now, I don't look at the daily price, but rather follow the progress of the business. I hunt for quality commodities (gold, silver, uranium and zinc), quality management teams (Keith Neumayer and Amir Adnani), quality geologists, and quality businesses with a resaonable resource deposit ( $FR, $FF, $GOLD, $UEC, $GXU, $API, $CNX). I dollar cost average, becuase I suck at timing. History has shown that the correct price of gold is the price that can back all paper money. If that will happen now, I don't know. But they sure have printed a ton of fiat world wide in the past 8 years. I realize that making forecasts is a fools game, nobody knows how high gold and silver will go, I just know that it will be a lot higher in the coming years, than where it is at today. But if I am betting man, I believe that the US Debt Clock http://www.usdebtclock.org/ comes pretty close to an accurate forecast. You should scroll over the prices and see how they come to that number. I think we will see a major financial crisis, that will lead to a global restructuring of the financial system. But people will have lost all faith in fiat currencies and will not want to accept any new global fiat replacement (SDR). People will demand solid money, therefor my reasoning that gold will play a part into that restructuring. It is the vital element needed for the masses, in the depths of a crisis, to accept a new financial system. Gold will bring stability and restore confidence in the financial system. At what price that will be, I don't know, but much higher than the price today.
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from #gxu,
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@tcu I will continue to add to $Gxu as my core U holding and $DML is very attractive around the 50 cent range as multi year low. I am still banking on the kazaks to turn the U market around with a little help from cameco. This cannot go on. I bet the likes of RR, and co will be adding all summer to their U positions expecting a pop in late 2017/early 2018
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from #uranium,
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@Typical-Trader @tcu diligently waiting for that pop!
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@barracuda $tcu are you concerned about the debt $gxu is trying to take on?
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@tcu Yes and no. No because they are first trying to secure loans in order to line up the ability to start the mine. They have tons of warrants they can cash from deep pockets if times continue to be tough. The likelyhood of debt financing through dilution I believe is a risk in 2019 mor than the next 18 months. I contacted IR and they were only going to do a public offering once the SP hit much higher prices. Now obviously this is contingent on the price of U but they are very bullish on he outlook as am I. If the last cycle is any indicator, the new producers will have the most torque in a new bull market. And I would also suggest that $GXU is a major take out target by areva who is next door with depleting assets. So it concerns me a little but if they time this right, a financing to become a legitimate producer with long term contracts in hand (which they are currently working on) would be a net positive for shareholders. Dilution is never good, I am experiencing this with $F and $CDB right now, but $GXU's situation is totally different. We got a shitty deal in those two cases (unless you are very long to see the merger and takeover become accretive)
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@tcu But in the case of $GXU I'm sure shareholders may value dilution if it gets us to a mine, production and in the game for selling U. This makes us very attractive to the majors
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@tcu At current market cap with 200M pounds and only 10% of property drilled or explored, it leaves a ton of upside for market cap expansion should the spot price rise.
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@FundamentalAnalysis Still think $GXU should buy out $fsy. $fsy as far as I'm aware is also fully permitted.
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@Excelsior @FundamentalAnalysis and @barracuda - The sad truth is that nobody knows exactly what will happen with the Uranium pricing. David Cates is one of the most connected and active members of the #Uranium community; not just with $DNN $DML but as a consultant to $U and involved stakeholder with $GXU and $SYH. I wouldn't extrapolate out your experience with that $FCU rep and apply it to all Uranium executives. I've heard David mention secondary supplies and underfeeding for the last few years in interviews, so he is quite aware of the situation. > David Cates: Welcome to The Uranium Supercycle BY COLLIN KETTELL ON FEBRUARY 22, 2017 http://palisaderadio.com/david-cates-welcome-to-the-uranium-supercycle/ The guys at $DNN Denison have been entrenched in the Uranium space for decades, were past #producers, sold $UUUU $EFR Energy Fuels their active White Mesa Mill, are involved with toll milling $CCJ $CCO Cameco's ore with $ARVCF Areva in a JV at the Athabasca mill, and have an environmental mitigation division. They understand the business from front-end #exploration and #development to back end clean up, and are quite aware of the competitive landscape. If you simply look at the Denison website they have multiple pages of macro info on the #Uranium sector and they address both primary and secondary supply sources. That doesn't mean anyone knows where the Uranium price will be in 6-12 months. http://www.denisonmines.com/s/Primary_Uranium_Supply.asp http://www.denisonmines.com/s/Secondary_Uranium_Supply.asp http://www.denisonmines.com/s/Uranium_Prices.asp http://www.denisonmines.com/s/Competition.asp Many of the company management teams do err on being overly bullish on the demand side improving and longer term off-take agreements starting up sooner than it has played out. Mining companies are mostly eternal optimists. The truth is that while "the cure for low prices is low prices" there is not a time qualifier on that statement, and it make take many more years than some are expecting to play out. #Index #mbgtrends
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from #uranium,
@newsfile GoviEx Announces Zambian Competition and Consumer Protection Commission Approves African Energy Transaction @newsfile/goviex-announces-zambian-competition-and-consumer-protection $GVXXF $GXU $CA3837981057 #news/mining The Chirundu and Kariba Valley properties to be acquired as part of the Transaction include a mining licence and two prospecting licences. The Chirundu mining licence covers two uranium deposits, Gwabe and Njame, containing JORC compliant mineral resources of 7.4Mlb U3O8 in the Measured and Indicated categories, plus 3.8Mlb U3O8 in the Inferred category
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from #newsroom,
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@anomalloy last weekend's news releases from - $AZM starting drilling with $EVR, $BTR, $CAVM, $CNX, $FUR, ^$GILD, $GWM, $GXU, $MAT, $NXN, $PRK, $TXG,. Insiders buying at $ANK, $AVA, $HI, $JET again, $MTB, $RKN, $RPM, Insiders selling at $FMG again, $RYO
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from #ninjapicks,
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@Gonest Korea Will no longer build reactors!
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@Goldfinger After news that South Korea shut down a nuclear reactor today here are some stats on $China and its nuclear power plans via Haywood: "China will easily replace what is lost by Korea: o China’s reactor fleet units includes: 36 Operating, 21 Under Construction, 41 Planned, 174 Proposed o China’s ‘proposed’ reactors jumped by 35 units in April of this year, which alone replaces the loss of the entire Korean fleet. o Since Fukushima (March 2011, Japanese Earthquake / Tsunami) China has grown its operating reactor fleet 177% (from 13 units to 36), and has increased its total pipeline from 200 units to 272 units (36%)" $CCJ $CCO $GXU $NXE $uranium $URA
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from #index,
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@tcu watched the palisades video. not much to it. just a quick comment on the South Korea situation. Although RR is a trustworthy individual, you cant help but wonder what his own/sprotts motives moving forward. They could be reinforcing the bearish sentiment narrative during summer / fall months to capitalize on cheap stocks like $NXE $SYH $GXU $DML $UEX $EFR $UEC or he could simply be telling the truth. i believe that this does not help sentiment, but i prefer looking at technicals and supply demand down the road to CHANGE sentiment rather than rely on sentiment alone. sentiment can be changed in a heartbeat. all it takes is a few headlines and U sentiment swings and everyone pills in. we should be running out of sellers soon. Prices are already near Oct lows of 2016, so its buying time IMO. Long term the south korea changes does not affect my sentiment moving into the next 2-5 years. no one makes money, the population is growing and renewables are not capable of producing base load power. nuclear is cheap to run, (expensive to build but small modular units could help that) they are clean, and efficient. with a massive amount of EV cars in the future adding to the base load requirements, we've got to get the power from somewhere down the line. i think in a few more months when U buyers who are sitting on the sidelines are forced in, we see another run in U spot. latest tradetech data showed that buying over 20$ is non-existant until it is, then everyone rushes in. happened in dec 2016 and i believe it will happen again in late 2017. just a matter of time
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from #uranium,
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@mattthetalker Have any of you on the $GXU side been aware of another #Friedland holding- $CDB #CordobaMinerals that's evidently got itself hung up in some sudden drama? I don't know if this type of activity that seems to have been taken by the company governance is normal, but it seems that the TSX halted some kind of merger activity which locked trading recently. My concern/question is whether or not the same behavior would reflect negatively on #GoviEx management, as #Govind #Friedland is on the $CDB board, and therefore probably at least aware of this activity. #GoviEx, #uranium,
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@tcu I own both. Not worried in the least. CDB deal is curious to me but $GXU is straight forward. Drill,finance, build, sell. Simple game plan. Lots of big boys behind them that will not let any funny business happen. Don't think the lundins, Sprott, toshiba, denison, cameco among other play those types of "games"
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@mattthetalker @teevee @tcu Cogent analysis - I think it would be a surprise to see a veteran manager make an easily detected mistake - $CDB looks solid on its own merits, and I know I have a lot of personal faith in $GXU - thanks again for the insights. This is a fine community -
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from #cdb,
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@flyinthruu Even if Uranium doesn't recover for a bit, being backed by BILLIONARES who have been in the biz for decades gives me enough confidence. Not many investments have the potential to be 22-50 to 1 gains in a five-seven year period....makes me feel better about missing the cryptos...
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@tcu I only own one crypto. It has really been the only thing positive in my portfolio for the last month lol #toughtimes
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@tcu But yes, the downside in $GXU makes it a very attractive buy relative to the potential upside. I would argue the best out there. Seems to have a very solid base at 18-20. I'm adding anytime at 18
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@flyinthruu @tcu - yeah, I sold out of some of my positions a bit ago in order to wait and get back in...been reading we should be seeing a downturn for a bit but may be the final one before we resume an uptrend - in precious metals that is.
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@robo Western Australia bans uranium mining - from article on mining.com. yesterday. Existing projects are safe so Toro, Vimy, Cameco and Yeelirrie are not affected. Long term effect on GXU?
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@ValueInvest The uranium price action is forming a 'Double Bottom'. First bottom in Nov 2016 and the second bottom is forming now June 2017. This is about 7-8 months apart. The second bottom is 5-10% higher than the first bottom. The $U.TO (Uranium Participation Corp) in this pattern-forming, moved on higher volume in the UP wave, and on lower volume in the DOWN wave. This appears to be a valid 'Double Bottom' in the making. I am a value investor and do not buy stocks based on technical analysis, but on a valuation assessment. I dollar cost average into my stock holdings, sometimes I buy at a very low point, on other times I am completely wrong in my timing. But looking at the current possible 'Double Bottom' setup in the uranium price, I am considering this another good entry point in the quality uranium stocks. My preference and holdings in uranium are $UEC, $GXU, and $API.
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@flyinthruu @valueInvest - I read UEC ASIC is $30. A very nice move in uranium spot price can put UEC producing in the black pretty quickly. Do you have UEC ASIC at $30?
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@flyinthruu @valueInvest - GXU is in a country that hasn't missed a uranium delivery - and hosts Areva....GXU is backed by billionaires and legends of the industry. Don't think they will be too concerned. I'm happy where my money is at.
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@flyinthruu Opps, that was for @robo
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@tcu Me too. i believe that my money is in very good hands with $GXU. when #uranium turns around (which could happen any day now) i will be ready with a ton of shares. i think that Mr Major has already hinted that many others in Niger have been taken out for around the 1 Billion mark. even with further dilution ... if Areva were to purchase us for anywhere near that, we would easily be in the 2-3 dollar range given a higher U price. it is possible, and it very well happen. Areva already has the infrastructure, we have the ground. they are depleting their current mines, we have new ones. pretty simple to me. they buy us out in 2019-2020
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Onekey @tcu So you expect about a 10-15x return on your $GXU investment from current levels. Did I get that right? #uranium
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from #uranium,
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@Rulingmining Isn't Areva bankrupt?
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Lemand Its losing plenty of money, but it is more than half owned by the French state
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Lemand and the French NEED uranium for their nuclear plants which power 80% of their country
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Lemand I dont think it will be too difficult for areva to get cash from the French state one way or another. They cant risk having the lights go off
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@tcu I expect a long term price target on $GXU of over 2$. Given the #URANIUM prices increase the way most predict of course. I do believe areva will buy them out. I can easily see a 500-800 Million dollar market cap in the next 2-3 years. Plus downside is literally nothing. Huuuuuuge solid base created the last couple months
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from #uranium,
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@tcu Annoying someone dropped this back to flat on the day at the close
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@Rulingmining Sorry @Lemand I am not following why the 'french state' needs to lose money on Areva? Why can't they just buy ore on contract? Owning Areva and keeping them going or losing money on them doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Just because you own a lot of nuclear plants does not mean you should be invested in mining uranium.
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@SFtrader @tcu The downside of $GXU could be 100%, as with many other juniors, if this $Uranium bull market doesn't work out. Cautious optimism would be more prudent. Still thinking we may test $.14-$.15 range where I'm waiting to step in.
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@tcu I don't think you will ever get your fill. But good luck. Buyers and sellers. That's what it's about. A difference in opinions. I however really do not see under 18 again. Tested multiple times and failed. $URA huge volume and increase today is a start to a good sign for the U sector and $GXU
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from #uranium,
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@SFtrader Why don't you think it can't go under $.18 again? $GXU was under $.10 6 months ago and the fundamentals for $Uranium have not improved at all since then. In fact, sentiment may be worse given the Korea situation. We'll see if support holds, but if it does drop from here, IMO it's a huge buying opportunity and I'll take advantage.
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from #uranium,
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@tcu I'm sure everyone would. When it was under 10 cents that was right after they did a financing, #Uranium hadn't already had a rally and sentiment was worst IMO. All a matter of perspective but I think our opinions differ and may have to agree to disagree. I guess the only this I would agree on is that $GXU is a massive buy under 18 IF it happens.
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@tcu I would beg to differ the fundamentals have gotten worst. Kazaks cutting 10%, Japan restarting reactors, new trading arm starting in 2 months. I think the future looks great ; )
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@Rulingmining @tcu you are forgetting korea wanting to eliminate their nuclear. Albeit, they may discover that is very costly and will likely just stop adding while this guy is in power. And we may be blind to it becuase we invest in uranium but the general public sees uranium as bad and solar, wind, hydro and geothermal as good, which affects political decisions.
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@tcu Public perception needs to change that's for sure. Solar is not economical and as someone posted earlier, it will be horrible for the environment once they go to landfills
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@SFtrader Very interesting 10 year cycle analysis for $Uranium spot prices, especially when you see it charted out. A big move may be looming... $UUUU $GXU $WUC $DNN https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VJh3vKhbbc+
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from #uranium,
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@tcu but one would argue that the price of #uranium is irrelevant to utilities as it represents a tiny price for them relative to the cost to build and maintin. its an after thought. when it comes to cameco and DNN, they may be a couple of the only companies ready to restart (mostly cameco in the ath basin) the rest of the players are explorers and land owners (and wannabees) there is something like 30 companies left and the vaste majority arent producers. that's the key. if Uranium spot does not significantly increase they will NEVER get the money to even contemplate starting a mine. who in their right mind would finance a company in a sector that you cant even make money off what you pull out of the ground. This is what will lead to supply crunch in the future ( i think 2020) until then, we rely on the kazaks and cameco to curb supply since they make no money. cure for low prices are low prices, and we have seen years of this. so the kazaks ipo, trading arm is huge. japanese restarts, huge. but new mines coming online ... none existant really. maybe in 7-10 years. Only the best of the best will be built ($NXE) and thats about it. $GXU may also have an advantage as their costs to built etc are much lower than the norm. plus their way of mining is also significantly cheaper.
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from #uranium,