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CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
@Excelsior@FundamentalAnalysis - Ha! I never said #PGMs were a "no-brainer" (nothing in resource investing is a no brainer) ;-)
The platinum group metals hold an interesting place in the spectrum of metals in that they have a semi- #PreciousMetals attribute in that they are made into investing bullion, coins, bars, ETFs, and some wear Jewelry as a store of value. Overall #PGMs are mostly Industrial metals used in auto catalysts, medical & dental tools, and other misc applications, but I wouldn't really call them #BaseMetals either. Personally, I'm more bullish on #Palladium over #Platinum and also like #Rhodium, but there is definitely a great deal of catching up to do on the Platinum:Gold ratio based on the historic mean.
There are a few posts with the PGM miners in a list format if they can go to the #platinum or #palladium rooms to find those. With the exception of $IVN (which got re-rated this year after the attention Friedland & Ivanhoe got at the #Sprott symposium), then the rest of the pack is much more undervalued than most of the #Gold or #Silver stocks at this point, so I see value in the #Developers and #Explorers in this space.
$IVN$PTM and $ATL are the only African ones I'm considering, but the rest like $WG$PGE$PDL$WM$NOT$PAN.AX$NMM.AX offer a good opportunity for the world to diversify outside of #Africa for the #PGMs, and represent an interesting value proposition over the next few years. Just my 2 cents. #mbgtrends#newbies
@ExcelsiorNice! Yep, I have 16 Gold equities, so I'm with ya. I only have 3 PGM equities at present after selling out my Northern Shield. No problem having a few fishing poles in each pond.
@FundamentalAnalysis@MiningBookGuy Can't stand when rickards does this. Despite all the interesting information he provides, he has that charlatan approach. He sells fear, and although his scenarios/prediction may turn out to be somewhat true, it won't appear as bad as he likes to make it out.Take the stockmarket for instance. Hopefully we all hold shares (risky speculations aside) that should stock exchange shut down why should it matter. The stockmarket HAS to exist and function otherwise people would lose their pensions/insurance companies would fail etc....and we would have a deflationary crash. The central bankers won't let that happen. I can deduce logic to come to that conclusion. The stockmarket is not going to disappear. Warren buffett said so himself that you should be comfortable with holding stocks that even if the stock exchange shut down for 5years it doesn't matter. Heck private companies all operate on this basis, so why should you be concerned as a PLC shareholder. As I said, Rickards provides good information but he has a MANIPULATIVE way of writing so don't take it too literally. Some of the negative things that will happen, won't necessarily be as bad as he makes them out to be. At least thats the way I see it. #newbies#mbgtrends
@FundamentalAnalysis@MiningBookGuy Good points. Yes weak brokers (i.e those small brokers that seem to be around) they have potential issues. Direct shareholding is definitely safer then via a broker. Also if your investment is backed by hard assets there is less risk. I.e if you own a company which has say large warehouses, which are leased on long term basis with upward only rent review to blue chip institutions. That is a safe investment. etc etc.... I read #TheRoadToRuin recently and I liked the book, but he does have a habit of painting a very pessimistic picture. In fact I wonder why he recommends only 10% gold. The way he writes it should be a much larger %. #mbgtrends#newbies
@MiningBookGuy@FundamentalAnalysis - glad you read #TheRoadToRuin! Interestingly, he used to recommend 10% gold for 'typical' investors, and up to 20% for 'aggressive'. I think he said that in #CurrencyWars, but I don't have my copy handy at the moment. He hasn't been saying that recently, and not sure what changed his tune there. I think he pushes #FineArt far too much, as I think that any type of fine art should be way down the list for people with less than $1M in investable assets (note - he does talk about 'fine art funds', but i still feel this way).
And I agree! Was much more pessimistic than I expected getting into the last few chapters. But he's set it up for his '4th book' to probably be the 'solutions' book (that's my guess...and btw, #TheNewCaseForGold doesn't count as part of the 'quartet') of #books.
For the record (again), I really like #JimRickards books. But I think it's useful to point out what I like/don't like when it comes to anyone I follow (with the 'God's Gold' thing going in the 'don't like category, lol :P ...and to be fair, it's possible he barely had any input in that writing as well, with professional copywriters getting paid big bucks for the sales pitch) #mbgtrends#newbies
@MiningBookGuy@Daniel@Kiwipete - ok, after all these mistakes, you can see how easy it is to get confused here! But it starts to make sense after a while, and most companies are much easier to follow that Platinum Group Metals :P
A couple other things:
1. If you make a mistake after a posting, click on the message, then click the little pencil, and you can "EDIT" for up to 15 minutes after you posted. BTW, this is MUCH easier on a laptop than on mobile.
2. You can "SUBSCRIBE" to any company room. I will tag this to $PTM. Just click the $PTM symbol, and then click +Subscribe in the upper right of the screen. In fact, you can subscribe to #mbgtrends or ANY room this way! It's one of the most important #newbies things to learn (and I recommend subscribing to #newbies room as a priority!)
@FundamentalAnalysis@miningBookGuy$DPM wow up practically 40% since we were talking about it recently. I have a tendency to be overly conservative, and one thing is for sure.....for anyone reading if you are bullish on gold over the long term, and you believe a company can survive relatively low gold prices in the near/mid term you can pretty much make money on any half decent gold stock over a period of time . You don't need to be overly critical like I am and analyse every little detail (helps for the sake of safety but not necessary - I'm learning that more and more especially in the mining sector these days - it really is driven primarily by sentiment). #newbies#mbgtrends.
@Excelsior@Kiwipete - I wish you well in your investment with Atlas Iron Ore, and there can be great risk/reward in a concentrated position like that, but personally going "all-in" on a speculative $.03 stock would make me a tad unsettled.
I would also mention that the Iron Ore prices really spiked this last year on Chinese speculation, but commodities are cyclical where one takes the spot light, then the next, then the next (like what we saw with Gold/Silver, then Iron & Lithium, then Copper, and now Zinc and possibly Uranium....) What goes up, also comes back down.
Personally I love to take targeted risks on stocks or sectors that I've spent a fair bit of time doing my best to understand, but I always counter-balance those positions with some stability in my portfolio. More often than one would like, something unforeseen surfaces and with just one position it's much easier to wipe out a larger percentage of one's trading account. If that stock dropped to $.012 on bad news your $300K could turn into $120K in a matter of minutes. In fairness, if it went to $.05 though, your $300K would suddenly be $500K. Still, pretty risky, like #ThrowItOnBlack in roulette.
One strategy that has worked well for me over the years is diversifying across #subsectors in various commodity sectors. So take Iron or Silver or Gold - Put some percentage of the commodity exposure in 3 sub-sectors #Producers, #Developers, and #Explorers.
I like keeping some small Jr #Producers in the mix because they've been more de-risked, are permitted, are producing revenues, and their financials are less dubious.
#Developers can offer bigger spikes/returns depending on where you catch them during the mining cycle (as sometimes they sit dead in the water if they don't have money, haven't finished metallurgical testing, are waiting on permits, or have social/environmental/governmental roadblocks). Still the #Developers are somewhat de-risked in that they have an #AdvancedDeposit, and may vary depending on jurisdiction, scale of project, economics, payback period, life of mine, and the assumptions made in their Preliminary Economic Assessment, Pre Feasibility Study, or Feasibility study. In addition one must consider what infrastructure in is place (power/water/road access/prior mine/prior surface development & build out), stage of permitting, capital that has been raised or needs to be raised, recovery of metals, smelter penalties, transportation of ore, seasonal access to property, etc....
Lastly we have #Exploration projects where all those same concerns are still relevant, they are much less derisked and unknown, and they are utilizing Airborne Geophysical Methods (VTEM), ground-sampling, GeoChemistry, and drilling to delineate their deposit attributes. It has the highest risk/reward component because it is answering unknown questions.
Of course, there are other sub-sectors like #ProspectGenerators that do limited exploration to farm out their properties to other #Exploration companies in various #JointVenture arrangments, forgoing the need for the exploration capital expenditure, and hoping to get an earn in, shares in the other company, or a Net Smelter Royalty #NSR on the project.
There are also #Streaming Companies that get a commodity at a set price for the life of mine or district for putting up capital at a time where the company needs this to move forward. Often in addition to streams the company may have a basket of royalties they've acquired over the years. Much less risk with these, but not as much upside. More of a stable growth scenario (think Franco-Nevada).
All investors have their own unique financial situation, risk tolerance, time horizons, short term trading versus long term value holding approaches, and comfort in following various numbers of companies. This leads them to seek out different jurisdictions, filter out or down to companies based on their market cap, or ounces in the ground, or share count/float size, etc...
My education was enhanced through the #SchoolOfHardKnocks and was taught in a humbling way the power of diversification for stability versus laser focused bets on a one-trick pony. However, it is a spectrum of risk/reward where too much diversification can water down gains if not actively managed, and too concentrated of a position can create an incredibly high risk environment.
I wish all investors the success in whatever approach they take and just wanted to reflect on the benefits of #PreservationOfCapital along with the #QuestForGains. :-)
@FundamentalAnalysis#mbgtrends#newbies.. I wanted to open a discussion, and its more directed towards speculators who have been in more then 1 resource market cycle. It's in regards to permitting.....if we stick to purely gold projects for the sake of simplicity... to what extent in general terms do we find successful permitting being a question of when not if? How many speculators have seen projects which have been denied permitting for more then 5+ years? Which projects hold large potential but have never been permitted? Which countries/jurisdictions within countries are good/bad for permitting and why? Very broad questions but would be good to see what people have noticed? Are there any common trends? For the sake of speculating we want permitting to be a question of when not if, however in regards to when its important to know how much delay are we talking? by country/juridiction/project size etc......
@90bigpictureas a general rule of thumb @Kiwipete, mining is a very cyclical industry. It is hard enough to find a good long term investment in the space you can "buy and hold". Junior mining is even more crazy. Just as a thought, think about what % of your portfolio a position is, the riskier the position is, the less % it initially should be (if it grows to become a big position, that is a high quality problem). You want to be able to live to fight another day if you are wrong. Here is a good piece on the issue from a smart HF manager, think about what % of your total capital you are willing to lose on a position: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2017/01/when-do-you-average-down.html#newbies
@FundamentalAnalysisI've been following $MAX as well. They have a tough process to go through, but looking at what they are doing, the team they have assembled I think that will also be a question of when not if. #mbgtrends#newbies
@FloxlHey guys, i am looking for an overview about newsletters from mining insiders
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@FloxlOn another note : @Goldfinger One more comment from $Gundlach; he sees 3% as the big level on the 10-year UST note, above 3% and the 30+ year bond bull market is over. That's a big statement. 10-year note ended today at 2.38% yield. SO I have been reading this statement a lot. When we talk about a 30 year bull market in bonds, we are talking about a bull market in price which means the yield has been falling consistently right? So when we say, the bull market is going to be over, doesn't that mean that the yields are going to rise which is ultimatly going to be bad for gold?
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@FundamentalAnalysis@Floxl Couldn't comment about newsletter writers, however I can imagine them being useful for idea generation. (Much easiar then going through companies one by one to generate ideas). In the ultra long term if $gundlach's theory holds and yields rise substantially it could be bad for gold. However we also need to consider the level of inflation. As I've mentioned before everyone talks of booms and busts. There are long drawn out echo moments where prices stay neutral. Given the relatively high debt levels around the world and very low inflation, interest rates and thus yields CANNOT normalise not yet at least. We need much higher inflation, for bond yields and thus interest rates to rise. Higher inflation can be good for gold especially if it leads to low or negative real interest rates. In the long term gold is like a currency, and is a store of value, and thus follows inflation. Our monetary system is designed to have inflation, so we can inflate away our debts and the key for central bankers these days is to have interest rates just slightly below inflation rates. Gold however isn't just driven by real interest rates, in fact if you look at all the factors that have affected gold, another less talked about factor is confidence. If confidence breaks gold will rise substantially. Broken confidence leads to higher inflation and higher interest rates.....what we saw in the 70s, until volcker/kissinger rushed in and sorted it out. I think Ray dalio compared to the other hedge fund managers is much more knowledgeable about economic history and our monetary system. He advises a bit of gold despite talking about the end of the bond bull market like some of the other hedge fund managers.
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@FundamentalAnalysisI'm always trying to ensure that I don't end up with confirmation bias. But nothing Gundlach and druckenmiller have said, is beyond what Ray dalio has already said. Ray looks at long cycles, so understands better in my opinion where we are compared to the other well known names.
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@DullesBFor newsletters on public companies. A lot of them simply publish them on their main corporate websites. Usually under the shareholders pages.
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@DullesB@FundamentalAnalysis I agree with your logic. I have been skimming over materials myself and am convinced long term investing is the most profitable.
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@DullesBIt seems to me day trading is nothing but a systematic pipe dream; invented for retail traders to lose everything.
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anonymousHas anyone used the Existing Shareholder Exemption to participate in a PP. Can you do it without a broker. With a discount brokerage. Directly with the company? #NEWBIES
@VaughanYes brown anon dot, you can take advantage of existing shareholder exemption in a pp without a broker and while using a discount brokerage. Pick a name and send me a direct message, îll share How to do it #newbies
@FundamentalAnalysisMy battle is always being underinvested lol. I sold off too much in the summer/autumn in regards to gold and not fully back in, and if gold truly takes off from here without testing lower levels (as I was preparing for)....its a lost opportunity. Even though I expect $2000 gold in the future, I cannot bring myself to position only for that scenario like others can (my issues are what if it takes a lot longer then expected and in the interim the mining companies screw up their projects or run short of good quality ore etc....equities are also time sensitive IMHO). I Guess thats where the good explorers and developement stories which can finance themselves favourably and can survive for long come into play...time is their friend as there is no risk of selling metal in a low price environment.
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@PeteSeeing Arrow as a goldmine, re-posting for the many #newbies. Props to pamps:
Using term prices at US$33/lbs vs spot gold at US$1,135.20/oz:
* Arrow's 201.9Mlbs @ 2.63% U3O8 is 5.87Moz @ 52.43gpt AuEq.
* Arrow's H/G 120.5Mlbs @ 13.26% U3O8 is 3.5Moz @ 264.32gpt AuEq.
Assuming the updated resource estimate shows double the resource:
* Arrow's 400Mlbs @ 2.63% U3O8 is 11.63Moz @ 52.43gpt AuEq.
@Excelsior@JT - Good idea on the #Macro room. The #Newbies room has quite a bit of #Macro concepts discussed in it as well. Also there are rooms for #Bonds or #Dow or #Oil or #Gold#Silver#Copper#Zinc etc.... and such if you click on those kinds of tags. However, individual stocks & ETFs often get discussed in each room (as that is what we all invest in to make cheddar)
@KevinS#mgbtrends#uranium#newbies Hey peeps. So I've been taken by surprise by the pace of this uranium rally as I was planning to keep DCA into gold sector weakness up to Trump inauguration then fill me boots with uranium shares. Is there any advice for those of us still patiently waiting on the sidelines?! I'm reluctant to chase this sector as it seems to have gone so far so fast with charts spiking vertical in some instances. However when one looks at the very long term 10 year charts for a lot of companies such as $UUUU and the also $URA this is but a MINISCULE blip in the bottom right hand corner!!!! Also #marinkatusa suggested one stays patient this year. Saw on a video that #rickrule suggests summer being a good time to buy. Are they right or have they missed calling the bottom?! Btw I'm a buy and hold investor but a stickler for a bargain. I'm thinking of waiting till min late Feb or March until the fix is definitely in. Any thoughts? :)
@DullesBTrump has still yet to approve the massive renovation of arms.
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@Excelsior@DullesB - Check out the #Uranium room and keep scanning up through the older comments for the last 3-6 months and it is a true education on the sector.
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@tommySpending a few minutes on Cooper’s debut deal…. Gonzaga Resources $GN, which has acquired a past producing Nova Scotia goldmine from a Scott Gibson affiliated group (I’m pretty sure), and is raising $1.8 million to get going. A few newsletter writers are already talking about it.
I go to SEDAR and have a look at a recent quarterly Management Discussion and Analysis for Gonzaga Resources, and take a quick scan to learn a bit about the financials and operating history of the company. The “Management information circular - English” is another goldmine for intel on any public company.
Gonzaga Resources is the go-public vehicle and it’s essentially a broke shell with 13,292,333 shares. Greg Davis (holds 2,220,000 GN shares) and Robert Clemens (holds 1,125,000 GN shares) have just resigned from the board. The shell is getting about a $3.3 million promote, which I am not that offended by (because I'm biased and believe we've entered a better junior market period for a while longer).
Jeffrey Wilson was appointed CEO and a Director Dec 30, 2016. Jeff is a seasoned mineral exploration executive. He’s CEO of PRG and former VP Corp Dev at GIX.
Gonzaga is spending $1 million cash over 3 years and issuing 5,840,000 Gonzaga shares for a 100% interest in the Goldenville Property and 3 other early stage Nova Scotia projects with historic production. Seller keeping royalties on each of the projects. I believe the seller is affiliated with Scott Gibson, a Vancouver-based mining investor, promoter and producer of the Metals Investor Forum conferences. [I don’t mean “promoter” in the derogatory sense, Scott is a very hardworking and nice guy to just about everyone in the industry. That’s not to say he’s doing this for charity.]
I don’t know much about the property, but I had heard about Scott picking something up in Nova Scotia a couple years ago.
“The Goldenville property hosts a historical inferred mineral resource of 244,730 ounces of gold in 533,739 tonnes grading 14.26 grams per tonne (g/t) and a historical indicated mineral resource of 37,000 ounces of gold in 106,976 tonnes grading 10.76 g/t, using a cut-off of two g/t gold, as reported in a historical technical report dated effective March 1, 2005, prepared for Acadian Gold Corp. by Mercator Geological Services Ltd. entitled "Technical report on mineral resource estimate -- Acadian Gold Corp. -- Goldenville property -- Guysborough county, Nova Scotia, Canada.””
Brandon Macdonald, P. Geo., prepared an updated independent Technical Report on the Goldenville Property. That’s our buddy @Brandon on CEO.ca!
Millennial geologist Cooper Quinn, a Wyoming-bred transplant to Vancouver, has been appointed President and a Director of Gonzaga. Cooper spent a few years working with @RobMcLeod and is a bright and charming young guy from my generation.
Adrian Fleming and Greg Beischer are directors, two seasoned guys.
Three newsletter writers, Eric Coffin, Brien Lundin, and Gwen Preston already mentioning Gonzaga, before it’s first financing. A good sign for retail support and testament of Scott’s good connections.
Gonzaga announced a $1.8 million financing today at $0.25 per Unit, with a 18 month half warrant at $0.40.
Here’s a crude cap table…
Shell: 13,292,333 shares
Property: 5,840,000 shares
Financing: 7,200,000 shares
Total: 26,332,333 shares plus 3,600,000 warrants and I assume some options.
$6.33 million market cap @25c.
My opinion? A cheap trade if you believe we are in a new commodities bull market. Expensive if you still have the bear market — trading under cash or else — mentality.
I might take a small position if they’ll have me because millennials have been good to me but don’t expect me to disclose when I sell… I am not endorsing it. This is not investment advice. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed investment advisor about your personal financial situation prior to making trading decisions. Gonzaga is a very high risk stock and could go to zero. I don’t have business relationships with anyone mentioned here, except Coffin. He and I run a marginally profitable conference together.
This is the sum of 24 minutes of due diligence. I am trying to share more! #newbies#mbgtrends
@MiningBookGuy@tommy RE: https://ceo.ca/mbgtrends?f0655f04c8e4
This was really cool and thanks for tagging #mbgtrends! Especially valuable as a case study for doing #DueDiligence in less than 30 minutes (as mentioned by @anonymous)...if I was just getting started as a junior mining speculator, I'd be flabbergasted that all this information could be compiled so quickly! But over time, you start to pick up on people/patterns in the industry, and this isn't overwhelming at all. I'd never be able to do a write-up like this so quickly. But as I scanned it, it's a similar way to how I piece together info on a new company, with the various components fitting together, helping to make a decision on whether or not to buy shares, and what needs to be researched further. Again, great model for people to look at!
As a sidenote, cool to see @Brandon@RobMcLeod & @cooperquinn_wy mentioned! All 3 of these guys used to post a lot more at CEO.CA, and @Brandon did quite a bit in #mbgtrends when it was the only alternative to the 'index' (prior to creation of 'panels'). Obviously they are now all super-busy being far more productive with their time. But CEO.CA is awesome because 'nobodies' like some of you (and me) can mingle with these guys, who are serious professionals in the industry! Just wanted to point this out for the #newbies, that you never know who you might be interacting with, or who might be following all the chitter-chatter.
@tommyCEO.ca is like a radio with unlimited channels. You want to tune in to the channels that are relevant to you. Channels can be about topics such as #uranium or people like @jameskwantes or stocks like Fairfax Financial Holdings $FFH. Notice when I mention a channel, a copy of my message is duplicated in those channels. The fairfax channel is accessible at www.ceo.ca/FFH and uranium at www.ceo.ca/uranium and so forth. You can create any channel you want, or follow existing ones. #newbies
@MiningBookGuy@PamplonaTrader - not a lecture towards you. btw, it is NOT obvious that people should do their own due diligence, and i'm surprised you feel that way. Adding "DYODD" is not the point here.
there are a ton of #newbies at ceo.ca, and there's going to be a ton more in the near future.
now when you say "charting perspective", that's a completely different reason to be interested in $CEM, and maybe this is a great opportunity happening right now.
but go back to the end of my original message on all of this:
"but i recommend people call management and figure out the 2017 plan if they're looking for more than a really quick trade."
there's NOTHING wrong with trading from charts. but that's what i consider a "really quick trade" here. i will continue to pound the table on people calling/emailing and meeting up with management, ESPECIALLY for the smallest juniors like $CEM, if they're serious about speculating on the company fundamentals. for me, this is about more than $CEM, and about building the right habits from the ground up.
@MiningBookGuylastly, the amazing thing is that @jayfire actually had a post on this in the last 24 hours!
full disclosure: I have NOT talked to @Jayfire in like a month, and it's 100% a coincidence that he posted this within 24 hours of my 'random question'. but it's really a perfect window into how he thinks about these plays.
again, i personally don't own any $IVN shares. but clearly @jayfire made out like a bandit! btw, i'm pretty sure @jayfire sold some shares even earlier...but when you make massive profits like this, it's pretty easy to forget leaving a few thousand on the table :P
i think this post is just awesome, and i'm tagging to #newbies as a general example for ANY stock that's gone from the doldrums to spectacular gains within a year. there might be a ton more gains left...but you've got to figure out if your personality is more like @jayfire's (as mine is, but doesn't work for everyone), or if you've got the 'right stuff' to ride the highs (some people do...but this is not for everyone either)
*final note - I sure wish I jumped on $IVN a year ago like @Jayfire, congrats! :) $IVPAF#FiFighter#mbgtrends