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CEO.CA members discuss high-risk penny stocks which can lose their entire value. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
@BSOne way to possibly improve is to add some kind of colour code to the percentage boxes in the tables: green for up (different shades based on different % intervals, the higher, the more pronounced) and orange-red for down.
@bedragHow about adding a column for "last week's position" and a second column to show number of places moved up/down since previous week - it could be coloured green/red as appropriate, or even an up/down arrow :)
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@EvenPrimeI see people have been writing their RE2 guesses. Is there an official one setup that I missed? Im thinking of putting one together and putting it up on the #stockpickingcontest website.
anonymousYou'll see I have a few different pages and a bunch stuff not working on the website - I apologize but I am using it as my course final project due next week. Then I start the Java course and will continue it. #stockpickingcontest
@PamplonaTrader@EvenPrime, I'm not sure that is the best method. Using the product of % gains does nothing to reflect real returns. YTD @MiningBookGuy's portfolio has the largest gains, period. I think a more useful measure is consistency. E.g. Add up a contestants rank from week to week and at the end of the year the contestant with the lowest total number achieves the highest weekly consistency score. (Or avg weekly ranking) #stockpickingcontest
@TheGalvanizerWould agree to a degree Pamp except for those that may have picked 2017 H2 sleepers - not sure there is any perfect way except to perhaps ultimately have the ranking you mentioned to augment overall gains and folks can view it as they choose.
@bedrag@PamplonaTrader Why would we even look at consistency? Its a stockpicking contest with only 3 stocks. Surely its the total return by year end that matters? If the goal of the contest was 'pick most consistent stocks on a weekly basis' then you can rule out the mining sector for starters, just pick some low beta large caps. I don't know, I just don't see the rationale there. If by Dec 31st someone has 3 stocks up 100% each on avg then that's great. Comparing that to someone whose stocks were more consistent week to week but overall has a much lower return doesn't really make for a useful comparison in my opinion.
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@Excelsior@Quantum - I completely agree with your points on the stock picking contest. The contests weren't for short term trading on who would be higher at the beginning of the year, or stay high all year..... The whole point is to pick the stocks that will be higher at the end of the year.
Personally, my picks for an annual #StockPickingContest were not ones that were chosen for results in January/February, but by year end due to different company milestones anticipated and projections in the underlying commodities performance by the end of 2017.
@Excelsior@Quantum - Most stocks don't have consistent week over week gains. The markets are a rollercoaster. My interpretation was that if you invested X on Dec 30th 2016, and took it out on Dec 29th, 2017 (There is not trading on Dec 30-31st), then what would you have made the best returns in?
There will be many peaks and valleys on the way there. If it was for the most orderly increase in the stock, then I'd have picked a streamer (ha!) #StockPickingContest@Quantum - I do agree with you that in the "real world" if a stock ratchets up so so high that an investor would likely want to lock in profits and rotate them into another undervalued stock, but that would be hard to track.
In addition, if there is some fundamental news from the company during the year that is substantial to the path forward (good or bad), then in the real world, and investor would increase or decrease their stock holding accordingly. It's hard to just pick a stock that you think will weather all the storms for a whole year, but that is the fun in this projection (based on the expected milestones a company will hit, what you think the pricing trend is for the underlying commodity, and the technical set up).
@drilltracker@evenprime Seeing as the rules on the metric of how the winner is selected were perhaps not clearly defined, i would agree that money in Jan 1, 2017 - money out Dec 31, 2017. To me the value of the #stockpickingcontest is not to win (well perhaps) but to see the range of companies that people put on their list and track how they do. That way we all win. #Index
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@EvenPrimeThis is excellent discussion and the rules for the contest is still going to be highest portfolio at the year end. But information is valuable so if I can track other pieces of information I defaintely will. I wouldnt mind highlighting stocks for example that already doubled regardless if they drop below that value in the future. At least we know that someone could have reached a certain spot at least once during the year. #stockpickingcontest
@EvenPrimeI would say by looking at the #stockpickingcontest and #safeststockpickingcontest we are in a strong market right now that may not be quite so apparent to others. Sure the market looks good overall, but those stats are showing some pretty awesome numbers. 100% Of safeststocks are above zero. Something to be said there imo.
@BS#stockpickingcontest don't do to many competitions. Part of what makes this fun is that so many people are in & into it. If you start one every other week, most people will lose interest quickly, so less participants per competition will lower the quality & excitement.
@BS#stockpickingcontest the nice thing about the website & tables is you can add numerous columns with information that is useful to some, without losing the key information for the competition (that said, the work has to be done. Really appreciate your efforts @evenprime, it really adds value and excitement to the competition, compared to last year!)
@bedrag@evenPrime Pretty much all markets are at 52 week highs or all-time highs in some cases, so it is a very strong market overall right now. I doubt that continues for the rest of the year though. The most interesting times to check on the #stockpickingcontest will be when markets are tanking. Then, those at the top here will really be worth paying attention to :)
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@BSOne competition we could/should add is predictions for resources somehow. Maybe this can still be done (say: top 3 with highest % moves in resources, with a year-end price target to separate those who pick the same commodities)?
@BS The reason why that would be useful is: at the end of the day many stocks move in tandem with the metal they are focused on. It requires different skills/knowledge than picking stocks (less luck involved too) but is just as important (if not more) for realising consistent gains
@JTI think a contest every 6 months would be about the max to engagement purpose. However for those traders out there. The way the website is you could have a trading contest, where someone can make up to 5-10 trades per month. It would be an ongoing contest, maybe resets once a year. With the trading contest it would be easier to follow momentum in stocks and commodities. #stockpickingcontest I like @BS commodity idea, it might take a bit more work to fine tune.
@PamplonaTrader@Highheat I am not asking for the rules of the contest to be changed. If you read back to my post, I said very clearly that YTD @MiningBookGuy's portfolio has the largest gains, period. At the end of the year, the winner will have the best composite gains.
The reason why I suggested a weekly avg ranking is to add additional perspective. It seems this is @EvenPrime's objective... to tease out additional stats to "tell a story" and to keep users and spectators engaged.
With regard to your comment about "how stocks work" -Opportunity costs matter... If my pitch to you was that XYZ stock will do absolutely nothing for 5 years but it will definitely double at the end of year 5, would you buy that stock now? Obviously not...
@PamplonaTraderWhile the process of selecting a winner for the contest should be straight forward (largest composite % gains at the end of the year), the process a contestant uses to select their stocks is not.
I think this is why so many other contests were spawned... safest stocks this and swing for the fences that.
I qualified my picks when I submitted them... these were stocks I would buy in my own portfolio and build over the course of the year. Companies I would put real money on.
I think most were picking hope-and-a-prayer stocks, not caring if one or all their selections bust... because winning is all that mattered.
@PamplonaTrader@Excelsior I think it was @dirkdiggler who said "I am in a swinging-for-the-fences kind of mood" when he submitted his picks. Again, I think there is a reason why so many separate contests were spun out... because your original #stockpickingcontest submissions may not have been the ones you would suggest to your mother or may not have been the ones you would have chosen for an article entitled "best stocks to own for 2017"... regardless of whether you own (a little of) it or not.
@Excelsior@PamplonaTrader - OK - I see what you're saying now. They may have some exposure but not a concentrated exposure. Personally I have a higher concentration in the #SafestStockPickingContest because they are....well, safer.
The general #StockPickingContest was for overall percentage returns, so that attracts more risk (and hence, smaller position sizing). Actually my #BonusPickShowdown selection has a higher concentration in my portfolio than one of the general picks.
@bedrag@pamplonaTrader That might be true for some people but I own all 3 stock picks in my real portfolio, and I own the bonus pick as well so I put my money where my mouth is, as do many others i'm sure. But whichever way you look at it, its fun to follow others picks over the year and we might all gain a few new ideas for our own portfolios.
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@EvenPrimeAnyone have a rough number of how many people were in the #stockpickingcontest last year? 2016? Was there one the year before? Just trying to get some history background.
@bedragagree with @Vaughan on this one. Today was just the beginning for $pnn and yes, a lot of selling thru Anon and others and the 1.5 million "Insider" sell obviously negated some of the move up, but as @Vaughan mentioned, the reasoning for this can and will become evident and the people knocking this will have to come up with a better angle. 5.5 cents is peanuts for the prospects Penine has going forward and I fully expect to see bigger players start to move in once the daytraders have churned enough shares at these levels. Lots to come on this one in the coming weeks and months. Its also one of my 3 picks in the #stockpickingcontest so I'm also looking much further down the road than tomorrow or next month. Good luck to all those who patiently accumulated this over the past several months.