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@Ruffus23 I suspect tgz buys 40 million Gdxj shares. They will need more financing in future anyways.
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Lolorenzo 0 chance Lepen wins the election. All the candidates who lost during the 1st round told their electors to vote for Macron or against Lepen (which means to vote for Macron, abstention or "blank vote"). And Macron was already in 1st position...
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@Ruffus23 "Additionally, the next two targets - Jackhammer Hill and Pourey-Peksou - were also drilled during the first quarter. The Company can report that, while these assay results are pending, drilling intersected the expected alteration and structures at each of these targets." I am reading this as potentially 4 out of 4 targets so far with an additional 6 more targets to be drilled.
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anonymous @kjm $GDXJ $FF $TGZ  Regarding the GDXJ re-balance... a number of comments on the various CEO.ca threads are making it seem as though the fund manager (VanEck) is going to dump portions of certain ETF holdings by a certain date (or within a short-term time frame). Could you provide a link to any official documentation which supports that contention? For background, the $GDXJ ETF seeks to replicate, as closely as possible, the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index. If you read the information on the VanEck website, you will see that it is the rule change for the index that is being implemented on June 17th. There is nothing I have read which suggests that the fund manager of the ETF must then complete concentrated sales of the necessary securities within a set number of days. Some writers on the internet have taken a look at the position sizes for securities that could be subject to selling and compared this against average daily volume, in an effort to calculate the minimum number of days that would be necessary to complete the selling. But there is a big difference between making that calculation and then assuming that the fund managers will seek to eliminate the positions in the minimum possible period of time. They are not crazy and will not necessarily dump large numbers of shares into limited bids. Isn't it possible that the fund managers will complete the rebalance over an extended time frame, to avoid adding additional pressure to the security prices? Is it also possible that the companies who will be impacted, could look to arrange for block purchases by interested parties, to partially or fully off-set the upcoming sales? I have no particular information as to how the fund manager will complete this re-balance (or whether certain companies will try to facilitate work-arounds). But I think these alternatives are worth considering, rather than assuming the worst.
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anonymous @kjm $FF $TGZ that's my point -- you are linking to an opinion piece on the re-balance, rather than anything official from VanEck. There is nothing I have seen from them which suggests that they've got to sell 'x' number of shares of $FF by June 17th (or any other specific date). For disclosure, I do not own $FF but do hold shares of $TGZ, which is also likely being impacted by fears regarding the upcoming re-balance. We will learn soon enough how it all works out. Have a good night.
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@kjm $TGZ has 16 days worth of selling to endure in some fashion...maybe already done, maybe not
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anonymous @kjm $FF $TGZ Yes, I have seen the charts regarding speculation on the additions and reductions. Following is from the VanEck website (and their discussion of the Index Rule Change): "Certain of the information provided above for MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index reflects an application of the announced index rule change to data as of March 31, 2017. Given that such rule is not currently in effect for the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index and will only come into effect as of June 17, 2017, the actual composition of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index on such date may vary significantly from the information presented herein." That means that the fund manager is not yet able to determine what the revised composition will look like. And again, with regard to the number of days to complete sales -- that is based on average daily volume and not (from anything that I have read so far) a requirement to complete sales within a compressed time frame.
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@Fanagalo There's been a lot of talk, and I might be wrong here but I wonder if people realize the magnitude of this. The GDXJ mess is setting up some great buying opportunities. Just take $TGZ as a case in point (I bought a good chunk yesterday - but I'm most certainly way, way too early). If $TGZ will make up 0.33% of GDXJ instead of 0.96%, and with Van Ecks holding before all of this at 71 million shares, that kinda implies that they have what, about 43 million shares for sale. There's no way that that selling is done, and I fear it's the same in many, many more names like $CNL, $SMF, $WDO, $EDV etc. When all is said and done, perhaps the mid-caps that has endured this selling might be set up for equally explosive runs as the smaller, hot explorers (but with significantly less risk)? Any more thoughts on this tiring subject?
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@HHorseman @Jayfire $CDB has given back most of it's drill hit gains, which made me buy a small amount today. $DV is looking really cheap, but I have such a large position already that I can't really justify buying more. $TGZ seems cheap. I think that some pure silver exploration plays are expensive relative to silver explorer/developers. At the same time some pure gold exploration plays seem pretty cheap. I would like to pick up more $F but I would like it to drop a bit more first. $SSP is starting to get pretty cheap again... Actually I think there is a lot of disclocation in the precious metal sector right now. Most producers seem to price in a higher gold price, silver exploration plays seem to price in a decent silver price, silver explorers/developers seem to be pricing in a low silver price, some gold explorers/developers seem to be pricing in a low gold price. #Gold #Silver #mbgtrends Sum up: I am not eyeing mid/large cap producers (except $KL and $TGZ). I am eyeing gold explorers/developers that has taken big hits already (diverged from GDX/GDXJ), like $SSP, the chronically cheap $ORG even though they have held up pretty good compared to others in the last couple of weeks. I am not eyeing many pure exploration plays in silver ATM but I am eyeing silver explorers/developers with silver in the bank. I think they have too low of a premium compared to the pure hope plays. With an escalation in trade wars and tariffs (most recently the US tariff on Canadian lumber) I try to diversify geographically as much as I can.
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@mountains_of_glory The $TGZ presentation here is really good. http://www.wsw.com/webcast/egf17/tgz.to/?lobby=true&day=2 | You're not going to find better risk-reward in the gold space.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Excelsior @miningbookguy The new team think the fund behind it are proper operators but I also remember reading that the new operators typically hold private companies, they don't normally operate plc companies, rumour was they'd take it private.....its a contrarian play, but I don't want to take the risk personally. Not with $TGZ at these levels....plan on buying that to zero #mbgtrends
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@Excelsior @FundamentalAnalysis - Thanks for the review on $ASO $ASO.L - Yes I was aware themnew team has been working in private mining companies previously, but just wandered if they had more of clue and may generate some value out of the mine now that it's built. The previous team had all the delays, set-backs in optimization, teething issues, etc.... Maybe the can build on the knowledge of what NOT to do and have a better run. As for $TGZ - bought some more today :-)
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@Excelsior @FundamentalAnalysis - thanks for the fundamental analysis (nice). I've been debating it $ASO as a contrarian play, but really I'm getting over-exposed to #WestAfrica with positions in $TGZ $HUM.L $AVK $SWA and recently I've decided to give $ORE a go (since everyone else left them for dead and they've continually tried to dig out of the hole created by the resource estimate blunder). Yes, $SBB (IF) they get the permit has takeover written all over it, and they have a royalty while we wait.  @Jayfire - Haha! Yes, good $MARL analogy. A nice 60% premium on $HUM.L and I'll double down on $AVK :-)
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Jayfire @Excelsior Me three re:West Africa. $AVK $HUM.L $TGZ $SWA I was tempted with $SMF as well but I'll see how far low that goes....but $SMF is absolutely loaded with cash....$280mUSD and only $60M USD in debt
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@Jayfire I like $ORE in a similar sense to $TGZ. When the going was good, raised a buncha capital at $1.00 and now shares are at $0.60 or so... looks smart now and all that cash de-risks things a bit for newcomers... and right now u can buy all u want... no competition whatsoever. Bombore is a big project, maybe a bit of an optionality play but the management team is proven and the share structure is tight with no warrants out... Could go for a nice ride if gold can clear $1,400 and those sulphide ounces are no longer valued at zero... and $1400 would be good for Teranga too which is a higher cost producer to some other West African peers.
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@Excelsior @FundamentalAnalysis - Me too. I watched the $SWA #Video @MiningBookGuy made twice, spent some time on their site, got enthralled looking at #maps of the #Hounde Belt, and thought, an eventual consolidation in that area does make sense. I share his enthusiasm for $TGZ at Golden Hill, and that $ROG $EDV and $SMF and maybe even $ACA.L may have a go at $SWA or $SCA Considering all the mergers and #takeover deals we've seen in w. Africa like True Gold getting gobbled up by Endeavour, Amara getting acquired by Perseus, Gryphon getting nabbed by Teranga, and Merrex getting acquired by IAMGOlD, then more acquisitions seem quite likely. I also thought, @MiningBookGuy if you feel that strongly about it, and it as one of your top positions, then OK OK - Geesh - I'll get some.... :-) #FOMO (you got me haha!) As mentioned above, I felt over-exposed to the #developers and wanted a good #Exploration play in #WestAfrica. I'd been looking at $CDV.AX Cardinal Resources and few others since my Gryphon shares got gobbled up by Teranga, so Sarama Resources fit the bill nicely.
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@anomalloy And more $THRM $POT $ZDGE $TRIP & $IHP $EXAS $PTEN $PROV $FRX $BMK $GMP $LXE $TGZ $GETH $SPNS and from nasdaq $GTLS $SMMF $YNDX $CCMP $ENSG $EGBN $CBMX $FRSH and Award-winning BlackBerry® KEYone official on-sale details announced for Canada @newswire/award-winning-blackberry-keyone-official-on-sale-details $TCCLF (yes, I still have one and love it)
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wannabeinvestor The results are nothing special on y-o-y basis
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@FundamentalAnalysis @wannabeinvestor It is more of the same.......however the company actually generated a bit of FCF, because the cash balance is about the same....and they spent some on exploration/drilling etc..... and this was at gold prices averaging well below $1250 between Jan-Mar 17.....so I'm expecting something better in Q2 as long as gold prices average above $1250..... which has been the case in April so far. I don't want companies to just survive, but as long as cash balances aren't coming down I'm comfortable....most the gold/Siler miners have just been raising equity because they can't make enough money and they conveniently use the narrative of advancing assets, because without it they would have to admit they don't generate enough money.
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wannabeinvestor for an African open pit mine their cash costs are pretty high.
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@Ruffus23 Nothing to fancy. Inline with guidance. Still undervalued.
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@Ruffus23 Gcm is up 8% post 15:1 consolidation which occurred yesterday.
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@lukejackson Probably a buy opp
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@FundamentalAnalysis Every day is a buy opp.....at this rate it will hit 40c LOL right back to 2016 lows imagine that total joke. Company maintained its cash balance....to me that tells me the company is now generating the cash....so its completely safe at current gold prices without any doubts whatsoever.....
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@Ruffus23 5:1 consolidation couldn't happen at better time. Lots of funds looking to get in on juniors at these prices.
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@Ruffus23 Looks like no 3rd quarter doldrums/eainy season this year. Mngt predicting consistent quarters. Also seem pretty excited about golden hill. Gryphon takeover really was a coup all things considered. Mngt has been quite strategic!
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@mountains_of_glory If you want leverage to exploration, $TGZ at these levels is actually a pretty good way to go about it. Lots of cash, exceptional land packages, and it's nice to be backing the same horse and jockey as David Mimran.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @mountains_of_glory Yh its interesting how its becoming an exploration/development play with a running mine on the side.....especially given the valuation levels. I think if this gets to like 45c I will back up the truck........situations like this were popping up in 2015 (markets were broken)....but the markets aren't supposed to be broken now so I'm sure this will pop. Do you remember that random spike day in March back upto 90c....I expect something similar will happen.
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@MiningBookGuy @Ruffus23 - is a $TGZ 5:1 consolidation just speculation on your part? or did i miss it?? please let me know if you found evidence of that coming or spoke with management. i think it would be a huge positive, a parallel to what $EDV did prior to their big run a couple years ago.
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@MiningBookGuy If anyone missed the $TGZ webcast, please go to this link, it's easy to sign up for the archived version: http://www.terangagold.com/English/investors/events/CalendarofEventsDetails/2017/First-Quarter-Financial--Operating-Results-Conference-Call--Webcast/default.aspx This was a great summary. I am confident in the the #exploration #development side of the $TGZ story (which is very impactful for $TGZ relative to other mid-tiers, considering the low market-cap/EV). I probably should dig more into #Sabodala / #Productions side and figuring out whether this is pretty much a 'sure thing' to be generating 'consistent' cash flow at a ~$1200/oz gold price or higher...that's what I assume, but it's very hard for me to tell the risks for operations over the next few years (just look at $PRU $PRU.AX with their continued problems with #Edikan ). If I was fully confident, I would be buying more shares in $TGZ this second (I already bought some more the last few weeks). Anyway, I think $TGZ has the best potential catalysts for ANY mid-tier in 2017, and very excited to see progress! ~AUfrica
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@FundamentalAnalysis @MiningBookGuy Based on the presentation...and Jan-Mar 17 gold prices which averaged below $1250, looks like around $1220 or so. Teranga was able to maintain their cash balance (Still around $95m USD - cant recall exact number or so as at 31 March 2017) after spending some on exploration. So at $1250 teranga is I would 90% bet making free cash flow as long as operations continue as they've done in previous years. They will use the free cash flow from sabadola for exploration that's the plan upon my conversations with Trish. So I'm hoping its cash balance remains untouched and its utilised all towards the day banfora is built. Teranga has proved to be a consistent producer that can replace ounces....the only issue was its margin was never great at low gold prices. ~AUfrica $TGZ
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@FundamentalAnalysis If I was running a large cap like $K, $G...I'd be strongly thinking about taking out all of west africa. Discounts are ridiculous. They should make a run for $AVK, $HUM.L, $TGZ, $SMF, $RSG.AX etc all at once lol.... imagine the value they could pick up. Regardless of jurisdiction especially for a diversified company $1 profit in africa is the same as $1 in america and I'm sure they could arbitrage away some of the value...it would end up being accretive to a major. Kinross has about $1.6bn in liquidity. $1bn in cash I think, and not a massive amount of debt on the other side. Why are the majors waiting....kinross for example I remember looking at that a while back....they definitely have a crap growth profile and a lot of marginal ounces.
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@FundamentalAnalysis On a serious note....I think $SMF and $RSG.AX have the best margins so are worthy candidates. $TGZ has best growth potential on a % level from current basis over next few years.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Excelsior good point....but $ACA.L were producing concentrates and were very tanzania focused hence why that fell through. $SMF merging with $TGZ would be interesting. $SMF better margins....$tgz with the cornerstone investor.
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@Excelsior @FundamentalAnalysis - agreed on both points, and I see $SMF $RSG.AX and $TGZ as being wild card accumulators racing against $EDV and $ACA.L (and also $BTO) $IAG is another player, but they just acquired $MXI and have their hands full. $PRU has been flat-lined but also busy with their acquisition of Amara. $ROG is out there and could either be acquired or start acquiring and the same thing for $AKG. Will they eat or get eaten? #WestAfrica A few #MiningSnacks they all may want to fight over $AVK $HUM.L $WAF $SWA $SCA $NXS $CDV.AX ~AUfrica #mbgtrends
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@Ruffus23 Gcm up again today after share consolidation. Looks like tgz 5:1 happening soon and should be good.
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@MiningBookGuy Ah, $TGZ 5:1 consolidation that @Ruffus23 mentioned is confirmed here! http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.tgz/teranga-gold-corp-cda?postid=26089801 [For those of us who don't spend most of our days reading every document on SEDAR and realy on good old fashioned news releases for material info about the companies we invest in, here is the pertinent paragraph that SGCREAPER refers to, from the management information circular dated April 3rd, 2017: To consider and, if deemed appropriate, to pass a special resolution to approve a consolidation of the Corporation’s issued and outstanding common shares on the basis of five (5) old common shares for one (1) new common share, and further authorizing the Corporation’s directors to determine when and if to effect any such consolidation as more particularly described in the accompanying management proxy circular; and] A rare case of #StockHouse being useful :)
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@MiningBookGuy this would be excellent timing if it happens! the $TGZ parallels to $EDV just keep coming. I'll need to dig into SEDAR more often to find these types of nuggets
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@marketwired Teranga Gold Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders Scheduled for May 2, 2017 @marketwired/teranga-gold-annual-and-special-meeting-of-shareholders $TGZ $TGZ #news/mining #news/gold
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@lukejackson $MUX $TGZ putting in double bottoms. Next week looks ripe for a rally in the gold's.
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@Ruffus23 Not much resistance. Should pop fast when it does go
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@Fanagalo @Goldfinger The rebalancing of $GDX and $GDXJ to be done by June 17th apparently. I think the selling is far from over. Personally I have bought in to $TGZ this week so I have had a look at that name in particular. Van Eck had trimmed its holding from 71 million shares down to 63 million shares by yesterday. Now a 0.72% weighting of $GDXJ. If it's correct that $TGZ is to have the suggested weighting of 0,33% they still have over a whopping 30 million shares to sell. Plenty more names with similar situations I reckon.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Fanagalo That's a lot sheesh.....where did you get those numbers from.....
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@Goldfinger @Fanagalo Interesting, i've always found it challenging to game some of these rebalancings. The weakest stocks probably do get hit with some more selling pressure while the strongest ones have probably already seen the worst of it. Teranga has been sold down pretty good, and with some volume. Next week should be interesting. $GDXJ $TGZ
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@Fanagalo @FundamentalAnalysis Haven't looked into this in detail so might not have the numbers correct, I have already bought my position in $TGZ and I'm comfortable whatever number they still have for sale. I just looked at Van Eck's old holding and then looked what the GDXJ held yesterday. The future 0.33% weighting was taken from this, no idea if correct: http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/04/DeletesApr1917.png+
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@Ruffus23 With the Gdxj unloading seems the penny stocks are getting hammered more than the $ stocks. Assuming big boys are buying $ stocks at these great deals. TGZ is going to explode to the upside upon condolidation.
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@FundamentalAnalysis @Ruffus23 Sounds like a reasonable speculation, consolidation should drive this higher......
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@FundamentalAnalysis @hunter Don't disagree with $SSL being a safe stock....its just with really safe stocks things could take longer then expected. I picked $TGZ as a safe stock as valuation was already low but the recent gdxj issues is killing the company lol. I've been reading seeking alpha and its hilarious how short people timeframes are....the trashing of Nolan Watson has now come back as well.....ignoring what has been done last couple of years. I've always seen $SSL as one of the hated streamers...hence as a streamer it has one of the best upsides. I'm always more concerned with the underlying business and don't care about share price in the near term....I just want to know cash is being generated.
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@PhotoJ June 15, 2015: Gold was trading at ~1170 and TGZ was trading at ~$0.80. Today, we have gold at ~1270 and TGZ at ~$0.66.
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