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@BS This may be of interest to some of you, free CRU webinar, 11th of May: www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/webinars/cru-metals-and-mining-observer-outlook-for-2017-and-beyond/
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@Brandon I'll be attending a seminar on Zinc held in Krakow in a few weeks. I'll make sure to keep the panel informed of the chatter. http://www.metalbulletin.com/events/zinc-its-markets-seminar/details.html
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@MartinTurenne Reuters: "Belgian #zinc producer Nyrstar said it was committed to pulling out of mining and added it would make small investments to improve its remaining mines in North America and make them more attractive to a potential buyer." http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nyrstar-results-idUSKBN1800IJ
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@BS Who said that a while ago? "Do the contrary of what Nyrstar does, and you should do well" or something along those lines. If that's a guide, this zinc bull isn't over yet...
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@MartinTurenne "Nyrstar has approved the restart of its Myra Falls #zinc and copper mine in Canada. Myra Falls has been on care and maintenance since 2015." http://www.campbellrivermirror.com/news/nyrstar-conditionally-approves-restart-of-myra-falls-mining-operations/
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@MartinTurenne Recently JDS Energy and Mining completed long-term mine development planning and production scheduling for Myra Falls. http://www.jdsmining.ca/projects/myra-falls-mine/
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@DanO Asset Sale of Doe Run Peru in Liquidation La Oroya Metallurgical Complex and Cobriza Mine http://reply.investingnews.com/dm?id=13F56DD0D6B455BE138F02A680D2973734FA8049ABD67CD6
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@TheGalvanizer Interesting - met the Doe Run guys the last two PDACs
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@teevee @ocotilloredux, Neves Corvo initially famous for its high tin content. Because of tin content, it went to Noranda's smelter, now operated as an income fund. Intersting the Lundin news release made no mention of tin. Perhaps there is little to no tin in the new deep zone?
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@Excelsior $FWZ Fireweed Zinc Ltd. (Brandon Macdonald) #MIF Metals Investor Forum May 2017: #CorporatePresentation #Zinc ~Zinc #Index https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co1ADSkE_CQ+
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@dirkdiggler Solid presentation @Brandon $FWZ
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@TheGalvanizer Going to be an even more solid IPO @dirkdiggler
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@dirkdiggler no doubt @TheGalvanizer
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@Brandon Big #zinc show this week in Krakow. Attendees include Glencore, Sumitomo, Trafigura, and some company called "Fireweed"? Never heard of them. http://www.metalbulletin.com/events/zinc-its-markets-seminar/attendees.html
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@MartinTurenne Nyrstar’s 50ktpa Middle Tennessee mine in the US is on track to recommence production in the June Quarter of 2017. Nyrstar put the mine on care and maintenance in December 2015. https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/04/978277/0/en/Nyrstar-First-Quarter-2017-Interim-Management-Statement.html
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@Brandon Hey everyone. #Zinc seminar in full swing now here in Krakow. I'm going to summarize here later and hopefully post some key slides that I found interesting. I'm one of two juniors here the other, not surprisingly, being Rathdowney.
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@TheGalvanizer Thanks Brandon. Have a good trip!!
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@Brandon Thanks. Panels almost over here. Drinks starting soon. Na zdrowie!
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@Brandon (as a bit of a preview a lot of chatter about weak Chinese growth for GSS and questions about demand growth more broadly, most analysts are still positive but not overwhelmingly so)
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@CriticalInvestor @Brandon Looking forward to the current outlook on the zinc market
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@BS Brandon, good luck over there promoting Fireweed. Is that an annual event?
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@MartinTurenne Reuters' stalwart Andy Home on #zinc, with many choice observations http://www.reuters.com/article/us-zinc-concentrates-ahome-idUSKCN18B29R
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@ocotilloredux Thanks @MartinTurenne The elimination of escalators and de-escalators is the best news zinc miners have had in a generation. It finally puts the miners and smelters on the same team. Both must profit from the consumer and not by stealing margin from each other.
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@ocotilloredux @MartinTurenne Re: Middle Tennessee mine. I don't think Nyrstar had much choice here. The Clarksville smelter can only accept very clean low iron concentrate which is virtually non-existent these days outside of Tennessee. At one time it was all part of the Pasminco strategy with relatively clean Century concentrates desirable around the world but we know they are now long gone. Play hard ball @brandon . Be like Pierre Elliot Trudeau. Why should I build my zinc mine? Your pockets are probably full of piss by now with all those smelter marketing guys leaning over you to get your ear. "Sure, we'll write you a letter of intent." Get them to write in that they pay transport costs from site.
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@HRA-Coffin I like the way you think Doug. Brandon, get that guy on a plane before the conference ends. He needs some good eastern European food to fatten him up.
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@Brandon This was last night's dinner, I think it would work to fatten up @ocotilloredux: http://cdn.ceo.ca/1chnuou-polishgoodness.jpg+
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@CriticalInvestor @Brandon Looks good, still see beer on the table, where is the wodka;)
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@Brandon Rest assured there was wodka
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@JamesKwantes Back to your meat-eating ways, eh @Brandon. Good thing you have a baby -- well, two -- to keep you on your toes!
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@TheGalvanizer Eating for two? It's a good excuse I guess :)
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@MartinTurenne Scotia: Cancelled warrants spike by 26.9kt in New Orleans this morning, which places “available #zinc metal” (reported inventory less cancelled warrants) at 170kt, its lowest point since October 2008
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@TheGalvanizer I'll help out by melting down my pennies #secretzincstash Thanks for that @MartinTurenne
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@BS What's the latest on #nickel ? How have the situations in Philippines and Indonesia evolved over the past few months?
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@MartinTurenne Phil production will continue, but likely lower than in recent years. Phil 2017 YTD production is down 27% yoy (80kt annualized), due to mostly to rain. Indo ore shipments are likely to add 60-80kt new supply this year. So Indo and Phil changes likely cancel each other out for 2017. Market expected to be deficit between 60-80kt this year, consistent with 2016. Consensus is for similar or larger-sized deficits for the next several years. But stocks remain high. #nickel
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@ocotilloredux Catching up on news recently. Caught this in the Engineering and Mining Journal.... http://emj.epubxp.com/i/813783-apr-2017/81 I shied away from the demand side of the zinc equation since it is not my area of expertise but if Technavio are accurate here there are some substantial supply shortfalls pending. $tk $vtt $lun
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@ocotilloredux And @brandon pages 24-30 will be of interest to you http://emj.epubxp.com/i/813783-apr-2017/81 (And I am glad I evaded pages 56-60- Eurochem. I was asked to get involved here which would have meant living in Volgograd otherwise known as Stalingrad.)
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@Brandon Thanks @ocotilloredux. We have actually talked to ISG, one of the companies they mention.
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@teevee @ocotilloredux, looks like the safe way to play zinc is $TECK
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@ocotilloredux @teevee $teck is more Fording Coal than it is a base metal miner. Over paid dramatically for Fording. A whipping boy for met. coal prices. The CEO is also too conservative after his Fording fiasco. He needs to be sent out to pasture. An extraordinarily dull company with no project pipe line nor vision. Who cares about oil sands? Nothing sexy there. They really do need to do a split between energy and metal streams here but their terrible share structure prevents this. I should have shorted them at $30.
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@teevee @ocotilloredux, over paying for Fording just made up for how $Teck screwed Luscar shareholders,and after Peter Lougheed first screwed luscar shareholders by helping our his billionaire friends at Manalta, the Mannix family, buy directing Luscar to buy Manalta's depleted coal pits and worn out drag lines, shovels and trucks which were scrap metal, and for over $600 million dollars. It was one of the largest frauds ever performed in Canada, and Lougheed got away with it, riding off into the sunset with his saddle bags full of money. Lougheed should have at least spent some time in the crow bar hotel for that.
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@ocotilloredux I had a look btw at what $tv was paying for Glencore's assets vs what RPA said they were worth in their NI 43-101's (which I am grateful Glencore has finally realized were necessary to publish) and essentially we have a 0 NPV situation here, if not negative. The underwriters were typical whores as always. I scratch my head constantly at what people are willing to pay for wasting assets.
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@Brandon To be fair, the NPV in an engineering study is not what the asset is worth. It is a single economic calculation on a fixed mine plan that may oversell or undersell an asset's viability. Look at $G's purchase of $KAM last year. Based on the NPV of the known mineralization it looks like $G way overpaid, but we can assume they priced quite a bit of exploration potential in. That's totally fair. Whether that is the case with $TV I can't really say.
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@ocotilloredux As a CEO @Brandon you have the unique opportunity to take the high ground here by stating the outcome of the PEA and then the caveats I have discussed wrt to accuracy etc. If you eat a little humble pie here you will be accepted into the world of base metal producers. If you put out a press release stating !!!46% IRR $265M NPV!!! you may get personal self gratification but little else.
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@ocotilloredux The proper line of attack @Brandon is to set the pre-conditions price wise to make TJ the goer we think it is. The more you claim it can suffice everyones $1 view of the market, the more you give away.
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@HRA-Coffin Meh. Brandon doesn't need economics, he's got me. You old school guys. Sheesh.
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@HRA-Coffin Thanks for the MJ reference by the way @ocotilloredux. I was a bit surprised by the four percent demand growth estimate too. Do you know the group that produced it that well? If they're right I don't see how zinc doesn't see the high side of $2/lb at some point in the next 18 months. No way there is that much production coming on line unless Chinese mom and pops really surprise us and I don't think they will. Many are skeptical but I think Beijing is serious about shutting down some of the uglier more polluting operations. The middle class there is getting pretty restless about the environment.
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@ocotilloredux @HRA-Coffin I still recall a steak dinner at Michael's on the river in Brisbane about 30 years ago where the European smelter reps at the dinner were trying to tie down smelter terms with Mt. Isa Mines. I had no clue what was going on at the table but there were plenty of ball pointed pens writing on napkins and then the odd handshake. That was my introduction to zinc smelters.
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@MartinTurenne "China is likely to step up imports of refined #zinc from this month, industry sources said on Friday, as dwindling global supplies of concentrate hit local output of the metal. 'It is starting to bite,” said analyst Daniel Hynes of ANZ Bank. 'The tightness is pretty much upon us. We are looking for zinc to push back to $2,800/t in the second half. This certainly should provide a bit of a reality check for the bears.'" http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-likely-to-boost-refined-zinc-imports-as-concentrate-shortfall-bites/
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@DanO Spot #zinc TCs for Chinese smelters in May surge $20/mt from April https://goo.gl/B7LF5D
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