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@ocotilloredux I may look at some outliers in January- San Cristobal in Bolivia, Glencore in Kazakhstan, Vorantium in Brazil and the wildcard Ozernoe deposit in Russia.
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@ocotilloredux @highROI has a copy of the spreadsheet work I did for copper back in 2013 on how I expected $2 copper which happened and I have published here the work I did on U to predict its current dismal situation. Both of those were downers so it was nice to look at the zinc situation and predict the opposite. The miners need to continue to starve the smelters.
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@Vaughan Looking forward to the module on africa @ocotilloredux. Will there be any talk of undeveloped assets (thinking ivn kipushi in DRC). ?
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@ocotilloredux @Vaughan Yes, I am going to take a good look shortly at Kipushi. There is a good NI 43-101 on it so I want to see how reasonable the assumptions are. $IVN tends to be very aggressive with their production assumptions and then leave the headache to others to execute their vision.
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@ocotilloredux @Brandon You can almost taste the panic in the zinc market. We have rounded the inflection point.
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@TheGalvanizer The ease at which it broke through $1.10 really spoke volumes to me
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@ocotilloredux I saved the best for last. Africa, a revised India and a look at Bolivia. #zinc http://docdro.id/mFygS9W
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@ocotilloredux Looks like I could head back to the moors if I wanted to. http://www.mining.com/billion-pound-cash-infusion-clears-path-uk-potash-mine/ I looked after all the near surface engineering for the shaft excavation work design last year in Dortmund along with 30 anal Germans on the concrete/steel side. I also looked after breaking off all the mining levels. Getting the mining underway and the mines ventilation. No rest for the wicked.
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@Excelsior ~Zinc #Zinc #Silver #Lead #Exploration #Index : $WLDVF $AZ Arizona Mining’s chart has been a thing of beauty this year http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WLDVF&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56558315522
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@Excelsior Here's an interesting editorial piece and pump of Callinex Mines Inc. $CNX $CLLXF from Wealth Research Group. I'm posting it because there is a fair bit of fundamental analysis on the #ZINC market, mine #production cuts, and reserve depletion. Some good charts and tables as well. #China’s Most In-Demand Metal is Experiencing a Supply Crunch #Zinc: The World’s 4th Most Used Metal is 2016’s Best Performer ~Zinc #Index http://www.wealthresearchgroup.com/advancedzinc/ #promotions
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@TheGalvanizer Just adding this in here as well you know it's zinc and lead "Vendetta Mining Intersects 14.77 Meters of 11.91% Pb+Zn from Zone 5 at the Pegmont Lead-Zinc Deposit @newsfile/vendetta-mining-intersects-1477-meters-of-1191-pbzn $VTT $CA92261V1022 new NI 43-101 resource estimate expected in early 2017."
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@HRA-Coffin Understatement. It's a British thing. $VTT
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@MiningBookGuy Glencore keeps zinc market guessing on capacity: Andy Home http://www.reuters.com/article/us-glencore-zinc-ahome-column-idUSKBN13R1PO #Zinc $GLEN.L $GLEN #Glencore #index
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@Excelsior 5 #Zinc Juniors Surging as the Metal Price Shines Posted By Smallcappower - December 2, 2016 #Index ~Zinc http://smallcappower.com/analyst-articles/5-zinc-juniors-surging-as-metal-price-shines/
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@Daniel Thanks again so much for your work @ocotilloredux. These modules are pure gold for anyone. If I may ask; whats your outlook on Nickel? It seems like it is recovering quite well. But when I looked at it about 1,5 years ago it seemed to me as if there was more than enough supply available for quite some time, the only problem being that a lot of it comes out of "unstable" jurisdictions. Would be interested to hear you viewpoint and of course also from anyone else here.
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@ocotilloredux I have not had a look at nickel for sometime, since I agreed with Greg Barnes of TD years ago that nickel was going to have a binary outcome- either all the new laterite nickel plants worked, hence oversupply, or they did not, hence under supply. Then the Chinese came along with their pig nickel plants to put things firmly in the oversupply camp. I have not had a look at what it means for the Philippines to reduce laterite exports.
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@MartinTurenne did someone say nickel? #dogwhistle
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@MartinTurenne @ocotilloredux nickel was in fundamental oversupply from 2011 to 2015 but there will be deficit of approx. 60-80kt in 2016 (3-4% annual supply)
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@MartinTurenne page 3 of the $FPX presentation shows annual supply surplus/deficit back to 2006 and projected out to 2020. deficits expected for 2016 onward, per Scotia, consistent with consensus http://www.firstpointminerals.com/i/pdf/FPX_CP.pdf
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@MartinTurenne and the Scotia forecast of annual deficits assumes steady-state Philippines ore exports (i.e. forecast was made before the recent suspensions were enforced). so there's upside risk to the forecasted deficits, i'd argue. downside risk would be Indonesian NPI capacity ramping up faster than anticipated (low likelihood of that imo)
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@ocotilloredux @MartinTurenne I will take a look. I can't recall who I was talking to a couple months back who mentioned that Sudbury is suffering from a lack of exploration with production likely to suffer shortly. Maybe I should do some nickel modules! I was never in that business.
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@MiningBookGuy @ocotilloredux - +1 for nickel modules! maybe @MartinTurenne contributing as well
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@Daniel There you go, that's where I was hoping you would go @ocotilloredux! Nickel modules would be great!
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@Brandon I feel like ~zinc has become somewhat of ~basemetals. Works for me.
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@TheGalvanizer Yup @Brandon was just a catalyst. Good to see all base metal discussion in here as I was surprised no side panel was created for any of the others.
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@Excelsior @TheGalvanizer - that's an interesting point. ~Zinc is the only panel I'm aware of for the base metals, but there are a number of posts in red # rooms for #Copper #Lead #Nickel #Iron etc.... that have some great content, stocks, news, and editorials for review. I believe the reason the ~Zinc room is a standout is due to savvy folks like yourself, @ocotilloredux , @MartinTurenne , @Brandon , and @Vaughan sharing such valuable information with the group. Much appreciated guys.
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@ocotilloredux Not sure I am your man on nickel modules since the laterite side is all open pit obviously and acts more like an industrial metal, whereas my expertise is underground which makes me well suited for zinc.
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@PamplonaTrader $RVR.AX out with some solid exploration results last night at their Liontown East project. LTED05 intersected 19.4m (1.7m max down-hole dilution) of semi-massive to massive sulphides starting at a downhole depth of 504.7m. LTED05 was drilled 80m down dip from discovery hole LTED01. Discovery hole LTED01 intersected 16.1% ZnEq (0.4% Cu, 4.1% Pb, 9.6% Zn, 1 gpt Au, 37 gpt Ag). LTED03 intersected 7.9% ZnEq (0.2% Cu, 1.5% Pb, 4% Zn, 1.1 gpt Au, 35 gpt Ag) and was drilled 65m up dip from discovery hole LTED01. Thickness and metal tenor seems to improve down dip and LTED05 is still open at depth and continues to drill down to about 650m to test the footwall. One to watch. They own a mill and have a 5yr mine life at Thalanga. #zinc
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@MartinTurenne From Morgan Stanley's Q1 2017 price report, out today: "Top picks: Most of the Base Metals are back at the top of our list: zinc's first (China’s short + Glencore’s staying long), followed by nickel (rise of stainless vs. Philippines cuts) and aluminium (new US demand risk). Stable price outlooks include mineral sands’ (there's actual DM pigment demand growth); copper/precious metals (stability, post-US election reflation); uranium (at decade-low, with little upside); PGMs (structural demand challenges). We are bears on toppy Bulks: iron ore, coals, manganese ore are all reporting supply-side responses to high prices."
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@TheGalvanizer so MS bullish on zinc but bearish on manganese - damn that would have made for a great topical narrative today :)
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@Excelsior A Perfectly-Timed Opportunity and a Deep-Value Contrarian Speculation Timing is Epic - #Index ~Zinc "There's no doubt that #Zinc is currently the most attractive #BaseMetal investment out there – It's almost a fairy-tale story...." http://us13.campaign-archive2.com/?u=18a68f31fc23a087b7c63f15d&id=b34814a30b&e=03e4d5c53f
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@MartinTurenne #2 on Scotia's top 5 mining themes for 2017: "Zinc is Going to Party Like It’s 2006! The long awaited bullish fundamental thesis on Zn (tight concentrate supply on recent mine closures + lack of mine builds) finally started to materialize in 2H 2016 and we think it continues into '17. Positive indicators such as spot Zn TC/RCs below $50/t level and slowly but surely declining visible inventories only galvanize this thesis. We think the positive move in Zn in late 2016 could be just the tip of the iceberg akin to the move we saw from 2005 to 2007."
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@MartinTurenne Scotia today: "Zinc moved higher yesterday on talk that the Chinese environmental monitoring authority have been investigating a range of zinc producers in major productions areas of Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong and Shanghai. The investigation covers zinc casters, smelters & refineries, extrusion factories and downstream producers in general and any of them that have not met required standards have been either suspended or restricted."
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@TheGalvanizer From a #zinc con guy i respect highly on Mn issues making the news of late.... "I understand that there is not a great technical solution at the smelter level to handle Manganese. It is handled to a large degree through blending concentrates at the smelter level, so mines with high Manganese will be forced to market their concentrates broadly. There was a small smelter (Sulfacid in Argentina, owned by Glencore) that was pretty good at treating Manganese, but Glencore recently closed it. Consequently, the high Aguilar Zn con that was going to this smelter is now being treated at other smelters, although I don’t recall it being a huge tonnage. The bigger issue is that both Gamsberg (a very large mine coming on in 2018) and Dugald River (another large mine scheduled to come on in 2018) are both high in Manganese. So I expect that Manganese in general will be an issue in the market, and Taylor will have to manage this. Would likely not be fatal for the mine, but they will likely incur higher penalties, higher TC’s and potentially higher freight rates than they would if the con was clean." $AZ
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@Excelsior Tiny #Australian junior $IBG.AX $IRBGY gets permit for #Greenland's first large new mine Andrew Topf | 4 days ago #Zinc #Lead http://www.mining.com/tiny-australian-junior-get-permit-greenlands-first-new-mine/
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@MartinTurenne Glencore - will they or won't they re-start idled zinc capacity in 2017? WSJ article: http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/glencores-command-of-the-zinc-trade/
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@Excelsior EXCLUSIVE #Korelin Economics Report – FRI 6 JAN, 2017 INSIGHTS IN #ZINC AND #SEASONALITY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR "The #ResourceMaven, #GwenPreston joins us today to share recent news out of the #zinc sector and for a more broad comment on the increase in interest. It was a couple years coming with analysts pointing the upcoming shortfall of zinc #production as a driver to price and over the past year it came to fruition. We also discuss the seasonality of metals this time of the year. Gwen explains what her data shows about overall performance in Q1." http://www.kereport.com/2017/01/06/insights-zinc-seasonality-time-year/
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@Excelsior “We just closed an $11 million financing” CEO of Tinka Resources $TK $TKRFF #Zinc ~Zinc #Exploration #Drillplays #Index #VIDEO Interview published Dec 27, 2016 – SmallCapPower https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M6_BMj_Qm0+
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@CriticalInvestor @TheGalvanizer Big question remains penalties etc to what extent affecting future economics, didn't see anything about this yet. Another interesting subject: according to FMT Neumeyer is investing in a zinc play. Which one would that be?
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@TheGalvanizer Agreed @CriticalInvestor which we hope will be satisfactorily answered by the results of the met work currently being concluded. All about checking off boxes
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@TheGalvanizer Yeah saw that on Keith. Not sure which it may be
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@CriticalInvestor @TheGalvanizer Did some research, I think I have a pretty good guess about it, PM me tomorrow right after open if interested. Seems there are two zinc channels, this one and #zinc? Confusing
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@TheGalvanizer Sounds good. Yes there is a zinc panel and other posts generally hash tagged with zinc.
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@MartinTurenne From Scotia today: "Tongling Nonferrous has announced that its 100ktpa Anhui Tongguan smelter in China will see a reduction in zinc production in January due to limited concentrate supply. Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., China’s largest refined zinc producer, plans to cut output next month, potentially heralding lower supplies of zinc. Output will be reduced by about 5,000 MT in January and the plan for February will be adjusted based on market conditions. China’s Chihong Zn&Ge has decided to shut two zinc smelters, each with an annual capacity of less than 30,000 MT, attributing the shutdowns to the low capacities and high costs of the two small smelters. Zinc Smelters will find it tough to turn a profit this year given where TCs are (< $50/t down from over $200/t in 2015)."
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@TheGalvanizer Watching a WoodMac webinar on #lead and the outlook for 2017 - will post some info later
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@MartinTurenne "The latest statistics published by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) indicates that global refined zinc market was in deficit of 263,000 tons during the initial eleven-month period of 2016. The total reported zinc inventories declined by 72,000 tons during this period. Overall, the zinc mine output declined by 1.2% during the initial eleven-month period in 2016 when compared with the corresponding period last year. This is despite sharp increase in mine output by China." https://news.metal.com/newscontent/100720195/refined-zinc-metal-demand-increased-modestly-during-jan-nov-2016
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@TheGalvanizer As promised here is a link to the Wood Mac webinar on #lead https://primetime.bluejeans.com/a2m/events/playback/tWR76mFgnx36 and a pdf of the slides http://cdn.ceo.ca/1c81pe1-Lead_market_in_2017.pdf
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@tommy Spoke to fellow Galvanizer Max Porterfield this AM about his batch of disappointing results. FYI https://ceo.ca/@tommy?6e30fb27165c
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@MartinTurenne Scotia today " Interesting to note that canceled warrants for LME #lead has skyrocketed (up 94% overnight to 66kt and represents 34% of Total LME inventories). Lead now at $1.06/Ib is up 16% YTD in 2017 making it the best performer. Market participants are saying there is a trading house that has been securing a big position in lead."
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